Advantage Crap Play part: Mr Seven Out
"Advantage Craps Play" (Im Literally laughing as I type it) seems that it might have a little leverage.
I present the "IF" factors of Dice Setting:
IF #1: IF a shooter claims to have the ability to influence the dice. Why would he not just become "Mr.Seven out"???
Wouldn't this put him at an Advantage mathematically?
How do you guys feel about this concept?
I love it. I will often shoot from the don't on an empty or close to empty table. I will also is use a couple of different lay strategies to use the seven to my advantage. Like you said, it is the easiest number to hit;)Quote: TheWolf713Hi guys,
"Advantage Craps Play" (Im Literally laughing as I type it) seems that it might have a little leverage.
I present the "IF" factors of Dice Setting:
IF #1: IF a shooter claims to have the ability to influence the dice. Why would he not just become "Mr.Seven out"???
Wouldn't this put him at an Advantage mathematically?
How do you guys feel about this concept?
Quote: djatcI cleaned myself out of my bankroll playing the don't against myself at the Flamingo. Dealers were stunned and I refused to switch sides.
This does happen alot to players.. I believe the reason why is pretty simple... On a regular day, you throw to win and yet the seven always comes. But on the days you attempt to throw for the seven, you try as hard as you can to make the seven to come faster than it would happen organically and the reason is quite simple.
Some players change their sets, they even try to throw the dice in corners, and all kinds of wacky things. They forget all of their practice....
Any good craps shooter will tell you some of their greatest looking shots were a seven. Always keep that in mind... Why would you change anything?
The reason people really get their clock cleaned is they go against the probability odds while trying to do this.and they don't know this little secret.
This little bit of information is a jewel when shooting for the seven... I call it the option
When shooting for the seven you can initially place your bet on the don't pass line... Once the point has been established, on the first roll, YOU HAVE THE OPTION TO TAKE THAT BET TO THE PASS LINE... do you understand what that means. It means you do not have to bet against any number you do not want to... Especially a number in your favor...this puts the power in your corner.. I'll give an example.
We all know the probabilities of 6&8 coming... So on the come out roll you can have your bet on the DP. but if your point is a 6, you have the option to switch over...knowing my shot and taking a risk against the probability, I feel i can hit a six. The risk is minimal. Switch over and Shoot for the 6 and hit it. Winner... Then the next come out roll, you are back on the donts, and maybe a 4 is now point. You would then add odds and press with odds of your winnings from the six... We know the probability of the four, so eventually the 7 seven will come. Boom you are now Mr. Seven.
It's not always full proof, but it works... The only hazards you'll experience is the 7 on the come out. I don't hedge because I feel like it's a waste of money.. I use the 2V set which shoots an outside number. After that a regular set and shoot until the seven comes. Don't be phased if it takes a long time. It will come
Alot if people will start having what they consider to be good rolls and try to switch over... This is dangerous when doing this.. You have to commit to the side. If you are getting in a rythym and you knock yourself off 2 or three times..the rules of being a don't player apply. Just past the dice. Never let one player (including yourself) clear your bankroll. There will be other opportunities for the seven.
Let it work for you. Try it again.
Just a little jewel from TheWolf713
Quote: TheWolf713Once the point has been established, on the first roll, YOU HAVE THE OPTION TO TAKE THAT BET TO THE PASS LINE
what am I missing? you take yourself from where the odds [at that point] favor you back to where they don't!
Quote:I'll give an example.
We all know the probabilities of 6&8 coming... So on the come out roll you can have your bet on the DP. but if your point is a 6...
if we all know the probabilities, we should know that even the 6 and 8 come less often than the 7. What's up with craps players and darkside "no action" with the 6 and 8? If a player could buy enough of that action when the other guy doesn't want it, it'd beat any other advantage play anybody ever dreamed off outside of cheating.
Quote: odiousgambitwhat am I missing? you take yourself from where the odds [at that point] favor you back to where they don't!
if we all know the probabilities, we should know that even the 6 and 8 come less often than the 7. What's up with craps players and darkside "no action" with the 6 and 8? If a player could buy enough of that action when the other guy doesn't want it, it'd beat any other advantage play anybody ever dreamed off outside of cheating.
Once again this only applies to people who have taken the blue pill... On paper, ill even agree that you can debunk this all day. But in real world application, it might help a few...
Yes, on paper the 7 comes more than the 6 or 8. But over time those two numbers will come more frequently the others (4,5,9,10)... The goal is to use the seven, against the bets that have a significantly less probability of showing up... To my math guys I know this sounds like complete bs, but it just requires a slight paradigm shift... Only apply it if you "believe" you have an "edge".
If you are looking for an actual equation in a negative expectation game to back this up, it won't come. You just have to try it
Quote: TheWolf713This does happen alot to players.. I believe the reason why is pretty simple... On a regular day, you throw to win and yet the seven always comes. But on the days you attempt to throw for the seven, you try as hard as you can to make the seven to come faster than it would happen organically and the reason is quite simple.
Some players change their sets, they even try to throw the dice in corners, and all kinds of wacky things. They forget all of their practice....
Really? Yes, all of their practice. Wonderful. Is that practice on your rig, on your table, on your friend's table, on your bed? Let's continue....
Quote: TheWolf713Any good craps shooter will tell you some of their greatest looking shots were a seven. Always keep that in mind... Why would you change anything?
The reason people really get their clock cleaned is they go against the probability odds while trying to do this.and they don't know this little secret.
Well, make up your mind -- are you talking probability odds or not? Let's read on:
Quote: TheWolf713This little bit of information is a jewel when shooting for the seven... I call it the option
When shooting for the seven you can initially place your bet on the don't pass line... Once the point has been established, on the first roll, YOU HAVE THE OPTION TO TAKE THAT BET TO THE PASS LINE... do you understand what that means. It means you do not have to bet against any number you do not want to... Especially a number in your favor...this puts the power in your corner.. I'll give an example.
We all know the probabilities of 6&8 coming... So on the come out roll you can have your bet on the DP. but if your point is a 6, you have the option to switch over...knowing my shot and taking a risk against the probability, I feel i can hit a six. The risk is minimal. Switch over and Shoot for the 6 and hit it. Winner... Then the next come out roll, you are back on the donts, and maybe a 4 is now point. You would then add odds and press with odds of your winnings from the six... We know the probability of the four, so eventually the 7 seven will come. Boom you are now Mr. Seven.
Hold it. After the come out, and you establish the point, you are more likely to win with a DP bet. Remember, just before this last section of your post you mentioned "probability odds" and what happened to them? Oh... you feel you can hit a six. Okay, so why bother with the DP bet in the first place? In other words, make up your mind.
Quote: TheWolf713It's not always full proof, but it works... The only hazards you'll experience is the 7 on the come out. I don't hedge because I feel like it's a waste of money.. I use the 2V set which shoots an outside number. After that a regular set and shoot until the seven comes. Don't be phased if it takes a long time. It will come
Sure it works, from time to time. And if you have a really good selective memory it works better for you.
Quote: TheWolf713Alot if people will start having what they consider to be good rolls and try to switch over... This is dangerous when doing this.. You have to commit to the side. If you are getting in a rythym and you knock yourself off 2 or three times..the rules of being a don't player apply. Just past the dice. Never let one player (including yourself) clear your bankroll. There will be other opportunities for the seven.
Let it work for you. Try it again.
Just a little jewel from TheWolf713
Again, make up your mind. A couple of paragraphs back you suggest switching from DP to pass because you think you will hit a six. Then you say it's dangerous to switch over. Which is it? If you're such a "good shooter" why do you even have to consider switching? Why even bet the dark side? "Good shooters" should be able to have hands of 30 and 40 rolls... and hit hardways.
Sorry, makes no sense.
You are correct... It does not make any sense.. I don't it expect it to come off as logical, because it goes against most of the elements that we consider as "facts" when people speak on shooting.
It is a garden of misinformation, but just give it try.
It might take me some time to lay it out to correctly to give you a better understanding, but it works. Real world application.
I apologize for not setting up the guidelines properly:
-when using the Mr. Seven out, The decision should already be made NOT to bet against the 6 & 8 when shooting.
The only thing you are trying to here do is win. you will have more than enough opportunities shoot. Why shoot against a 6 or 8 when you have the option not to? My math might be off but if I'm shooting against a 4, I have 92 percent chance of not hitting it.
This concept will only apply if you feel you have an edge on shooting.
And you are correct when you say good shooters should have 30 to 40 rolls when shooting.
This is so true. But why would you waste 30-45 mins doing something that can be done in 5-10 mins. Why would I avoid the most common number when I can exploit it?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWe all have stories about the "ultra smart don't player" who loads everything on the don't pass and then makes point after point after point. If it were so easy, we'd all do it.
Just the other day I ended up putting the don’t shooter up on his don’t bet to keep him shooting, I’ve done this many times when they run out of money and can’t throw a 7. I love don’t players when they are shooting, most of the time they end up passing the dice because they can’t throw the damn 7, when they want to!
Everybody has the answer to why you are losing when playing craps , it’s just too funny when you have a really good shooter trying to 7 out so they can win!
I will sometimes shoot from the dark side if there are no other players on the table and I keep getting the dice right back, and if I can’t throw a 7, will switch over to the right side of the table.
There is nothing about the game of craps that is easy, it can make anybody look like a fool. That is why the casinos still have the game, it’s a money maker for them, that is the one reason I will always say there is no such thing as a AP craps player! Sometimes you should have just stayed in bed, instead of going to the craps tables!
Quote: superrick
Everybody has the answer to why you are losing when playing craps , it’s just too funny when you have a really good shooter trying to 7 out so they can win!
I will sometimes shoot from the dark side if there are no other players on the table and I keep getting the dice right back, and if I can’t throw a 7, will switch over to the right side of the table.
There is nothing about the game of craps that is easy, it can make anybody look like a fool. That is why the casinos still have the game, it’s a money maker for them, that is the one reason I will always say there is no such thing as a AP craps player! Sometimes you should have just stayed in bed, instead of going to the craps tables!
And I've done the same thing for Pass line guys as well.
This is by no means a "end-all losses" super solution . It just works really well on empty tables.. Any good shooter will tell you that there are nights when they are "off". why not capitalize on that? And let the casino personal tell you, alot of "good shooters" seem to have alot more off nights than they would lead people on to believe.
Just as you stated
Quote: superrick
I will sometimes shoot from the dark side if there are no other players on the table and I keep getting the dice right back, and if I can’t throw a 7, will switch over to the right side of the table.
This is the concept that most good shooters will never point out. There is some down time in between your good shooting. Most people are not on your level and cannot recognize when there rhythm is heating back up. So until they do I was trying to recommend something to help them. Helping them to understand that it's okay to pass the dice.
If you want to be a star, this is not for you. If you want to win or add a little something to your play, it will help. Who knows, it just might give you an Advantage.
Quote: TheWolf713Quote: odiousgambitwhat am I missing? you take yourself from where the odds [at that point] favor you back to where they don't!
if we all know the probabilities, we should know that even the 6 and 8 come less often than the 7. What's up with craps players and darkside "no action" with the 6 and 8? If a player could buy enough of that action when the other guy doesn't want it, it'd beat any other advantage play anybody ever dreamed off outside of cheating.
Once again this only applies to people who have taken the blue pill... On paper, ill even agree that you can debunk this all day. But in real world application, it might help a few...
Yes, on paper the 7 comes more than the 6 or 8. But over time those two numbers will come more frequently the others (4,5,9,10)... The goal is to use the seven, against the bets that have a significantly less probability of showing up... To my math guys I know this sounds like complete bs, but it just requires a slight paradigm shift... Only apply it if you "believe" you have an "edge".
If you are looking for an actual equation in a negative expectation game to back this up, it won't come. You just have to try it
"Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes"
A couple places wouldn't let me move my don't or take it down. I'm not sure if that was house rules or the individual dealer, but the rules do vary some from house to house and somewhat between dealer's.
Just like a fine carpenter, a good craps player has more than one tool in his kit. I've been seeing player's betting do/don't on the come out so as to be able to just bet the "free odds" or go both ways on the box numbers. Sure the 12 get's them once in a while, but it would anyway. They weren't looking at that come out style as hedging but as a way to get a free vig on the free odds.
I had a stick man yesterday ask me if I'd been watching dvd's or taking dice classes. I assured him I was under no illusion about dice control, he nodded in agreement and went about his business. Good rolls just happen sometimes.
Funny thing, I've developed a shot and I call it my "Wolf" shot. The beauty of it is it doesn't require any more skill than I already possess. But, I just can't seem to make a seven with it. Any di wanabee would just shake their head and refrain from betting. But the unknowing just put their money down and seem to do pretty well. The box and suits throw their hands in the air and they have a little fit and walk away. Funny that.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat a garden of mis-information.
Good work Alan.
Quote: petroglyph
I had a stick man yesterday ask me if I'd been watching dvd's or taking dice classes. I assured him I was under no illusion about dice control, he nodded in agreement and went about his business. Good rolls just happen sometimes.
Funny thing, I've developed a shot and I call it my "Wolf" shot. The beauty of it is it doesn't require any more skill than I already possess. But, I just can't seem to make a seven with it. Any di wanabee would just shake their head and refrain from betting. But the unknowing just put their money down and seem to do pretty well. The box and suits throw their hands in the air and they have a little fit and walk away. Funny that.
Thanks petroglyph,
Guys Im just trying to give a little help to those who go in and make the same mistakes you made when you were young.
Alot of people take the Generic route and wonder why they are continuously losing. Then you have others who will only take advice from guys who have been losing for 30 years plus. Just trying to save some of you the aches.
Quote:TheWolf713
If you want to be a star, this is not for you. If you want to win or add a little something to your play, it will help. Who knows, it just might give you an Advantage.
I’ve been trying to get some guys to switch over to shooting and betting the darkside when things are not working for them. I know one local DI that has the best looking PARR shot that you will ever see, but once he throws a 7 out, he may as well go home. He then becomes the PSO king. I also tried to get him to change when he plays craps, he is always playing on a full table.
To me he is a player that plays a social game of craps, and won’t admit to it! I always tell him that if he is playing craps to make money, he needs to do two things, one is switch over to the darkside when his shooting falls apart. Then the second one is to play one to two hours earlier, when there would be nobody on the tables he plays.
When I do switch to the darkside its hilarious to see the reactions I get from the dealers, but why fight city hall, if you can’t beat them, on the right side of the table switch over to the darkside. The trouble with most so-called DI’s is that they want to be the star shooter on the tables they play on, they live to put on a show with their shooting, now that if they can pull it off, when they are on the table
Some DI's are not taking anything into consideration when they plan a trip, when they are from out of town, there could be a major convention in Vegas or some other major event going on. If you’re coming into a gaming destination, or you’re there when a event is happening, if you’re smart, you change when you are going to be playing craps. It doesn’t matter if you’re a DI or just a player. I’ve read many books that tell everybody that they should be playing on full tables. The trouble with that approach is that you can’t keep track of all the players on the table.
You have players coming and going, just when you think that you found that one player that is getting lucky when they are shooting they leave, because they get tired of waiting to shoot again, or they ran out of time to play. You stand a better chance of winning when you play on tables that don’t have that many players on them. That lucky shooter didn’t blow all of their chips on other shooter, while they were waiting to get the dice back to them.
Quote:petroglyph
A couple places wouldn't let me move my don't or take it down. I'm not sure if that was house rules or the individual dealer, but the rules do vary some from house to house and somewhat between dealer's.
Petroglyph, It’s to the casinos advantage to let you move or take down a don’t pass-line bet, if I was you I would question the boxman or a suit about what the dealers is telling you. I’ve never heard of any casino doing what you are saying, but then I don’t play in your neck of the desert that often, and I know that they do some strange things down there,and they get away with somethings that wouldn't be tolerated in other gambling destinations.
I once had a dealers in Laughlin, refuse to let me place the point that was established, when I made my first bet on a roll that already started, he wanted to have me make a put bet, right where the shooter was landing his dice. The way I was placing my bet, I would have made more money on the place bet then the pass-line bet. I tried to place the bet 3 or 4 times and this guy wasn’t going to have anything to do with it!I called over a suit, and the dealer was removed from the table, the suit apologized to me, telling everybody on the table that the dealer was having a bad day. The boxman wasn't taking control of the game and was letting the dealer get away with his bad behavior.
When they removed that dealers, everybody on the table cheered when he left. Evidently he rubbed all the other players the wrong way too!
This morning when I was playing, I wanted to move one of my bets, I didn't noticed that the dealer did something when I told him to move it, but the stickman did, and told him that it's all about customer service, and you should have a smile on your face when you do anything, was what he told the other dealer!
...
On taking down the don't bet. I did discuss it with them and we finally came to the agreement that it was they're right to mis-manage.
Quote: JB85Wow. There is no scenario ever where it makes sense to take down a don't bet that has made it through the come out roll!
This is pretty funny...
Im pretty sure we've all experienced our shares of choppy tables.... And when playing the don't you will see this a lot. There nothing worse than laying a don't against a 6 or 8, then getting it knocked off in 1 roll only for the shooter to establish his next point and seven out immediately...
Just eliminating the 6 & 8 out of your don't play increase your chances of actually winning when you do decide to venture over to play it...
Wrong. If you are playing the DP you don't get to choose your point. Once you make it through the come out, you YOU LEAVE IT UP until it settles, because you have the ADVANTAGE. In fact, you should leave your 6 and 8 dp up and lay whatever odds that fit into your session bankroll. If you don't want any don't action on the 6 or 8, just lay the 4,5,9 or 10 instead of playing the DP.Quote: TheWolf713This is pretty funny...
Im pretty sure we've all experienced our shares of choppy tables.... And when playing the don't you will see this a lot. There nothing worse than laying a don't against a 6 or 8, then getting it knocked off in 1 roll only for the shooter to establish his next point and seven out immediately...
Just eliminating the 6 & 8 out of your don't play increase your chances of actually winning when you do decide to venture over to play it...
Quote: JB85Wrong. If you are playing the DP you don't get to choose your point.
If you initially play the don't, you can do this after the point is established... Prior to the next roll you have the option to go to the pass line or take it down... for that one roll you can keep it on the don't, change it to the pass, or take it down... the only contract bet is the pass line.
Quote: JB85Once you make it through the come out, you YOU LEAVE IT UP until it settles, because you have the ADVANTAGE.
A theoretical advantage, maybe..... A real world advantage.... ehhhh
You may think you have an advantage, but playing the dont over time against the 6 & 8 will tell you a different story.
Yes I know, what I'm trying to say is that it's a BAD idea to take down a don't bet.Quote: TheWolf713If you initially play the don't, you can do this after the point is established... Prior to the next roll you have the option to go to the pass line or take it down... for that one roll you can keep it on the don't, change it to the pass, or take it down... the only contract bet is the pass line.
Come on man, once you get past the comeout, you have the ADVANTAGE over the 6 or 8....EVERY TIME. The absolute worst thing you can do is take a don't bet down because the point is a 6 or 8.Quote: TheWolf713A theoretical advantage, maybe..... A real world advantage.... ehhhh
You may think you have an advantage, but playing the dont over time against the 6 & 8 will tell you a different story.
Like is said, if you don't want action on the 6 or 8 on the dark side, then instead of playing the don't just lay the 4,5,9, or 10!
Quote: JB85Yes I know, what I'm trying to say is that it's a BAD idea to take down a don't bet.
Come on man, once you get past the comeout, you have the ADVANTAGE over the 6 or 8....EVERY TIME. The absolute worst thing you can do is take a don't bet down because the point is a 6 or 8.
Like is said, if you don't want action on the 6 or 8 on the dark side, then instead of playing the don't just lay the 4,5,9, or 10!
Or sell it to another dark sider at the table, if available. I would buy that bet if you didn't want that action on the no 6/8.
Quote: JB85Yes I know, what I'm trying to say is that it's a BAD idea to take down a don't bet.
Come on man, once you get past the comeout, you have the ADVANTAGE over the 6 or 8....EVERY TIME. The absolute worst thing you can do is take a don't bet down because the point is a 6 or 8.
Like is said, if you don't want action on the 6 or 8 on the dark side, then instead of playing the don't just lay the 4,5,9, or 10!
JB, would you have me believe that is your choice of wagers? Then from that I would also infer that you don't place the six and eight. Will you also lay the six and eight every time?
Somehow I didn't think you played strictly by the math? Aaron has also put the challenge out there for people to take the don't. I'm going to pretend also that you will be putting max. odds on these wagers. That would make sense because you have the advantage.
Let me know if you get the show set up with real money in a real casino. You take the don't on the six and eight everytime and let the shooter's have the dice.
This I would like to see.
Well P, I would say I play mostly by the math.Quote: petroglyphJB, would you have me believe that is your choice of wagers? Then from that I would also infer that you don't place the six and eight. Will you also lay the six and eight every time?
Somehow I didn't think you played strictly by the math? Aaron has also put the challenge out there for people to take the don't. I'm going to pretend also that you will be putting max. odds on these wagers. That would make sense because you have the advantage.
Let me know if you get the show set up with real money in a real casino. You take the don't on the six and eight everytime and let the shooter's have the dice.
This I would like to see.
If I'm on the don't, I will always lay odds on the 6 and 8. I don't play max odds, because it doesn't fit in my budget. The casinos near me that I frequent are 20x and 100x odds.
I don't always play the don't. Usually I go with the intention of playing the right side but will switch over if I deem the table "cold". I know, I know, the past doesn't mean anything, but that's what I do. I will also switch back and forth at times depending on how I feel a shooter is going to throw if the table is choppy, which it often is. I tend to "buck the trend" when it is like this. Say if 2 shooters make a point I will get on the don't for a few shooters and vice versa.
Quote: JB85Well P, I would say I play mostly by the math.
If I'm on the don't, I will always lay odds on the 6 and 8. I don't play max odds, because it doesn't fit in my budget. The casinos near me that I frequent are 20x and 100x odds.
I don't always play the don't. Usually I go with the intention of playing the right side but will switch over if I deem the table "cold". I know, I know, the past doesn't mean anything, but that's what I do. I will also switch back and forth at times depending on how I feel a shooter is going to throw if the table is choppy, which it often is. I tend to "buck the trend" when it is like this. Say if 2 shooters make a point I will get on the don't for a few shooters and vice versa.
Zowies, 20x & 100x, I wouldn't be on that action either. I think when they do that it's some kind of novelty advertisement. It takes a lot of kahones to wager that way for sure, or a lot of crazy.
Yeah, I thought you were a fluid player. Sorry man, I had to gig you on it. I couldn't help it.
We do have circular discussions here for sure. When TheWolf posed the proposition for consideration, I liked it. It's not the way I would play every time but I will consider it and have another tool in my arsenal. That tactic isn't etched in stone [petroglyph].
As good a player as you are, I do believe you will think about that as well.
Also, experienced players often do think the past does mean something. How many times have we seen the dice go around the table and some shooter's repeat their same results? Plenty. I gotta go with my gut. Hunches, intuition.
As far as betting that way, I try to not get caught out on the passline very often, but I do believe I'll get the chance to utilize the process. Like you mentioned on a cold or choppy table and I haven't made a wager for a few shooter's and the stink eye is upon me.
Quote: MrVThey would if they could but they can't so they don't.
Sorry to say MrV but by simply setting the dice to show 6-1, 5-2, 4-3 (Seven on all sides) makes it very easy to roll 7, Just the other day I've rolled 5 in a row during come out.
I also believe that if you're gonna roll just for the seven or dark side betting, at least let the table know so they don't waste their money placing numbers.
Quote: CrapsGenioussimply setting the dice [thusly] makes it very easy to roll 7
Don't try to claim copyright on the "yo set" I have beat you to it. See blog.
Quote: odiousgambitQuote: CrapsGenioussimply setting the dice [thusly] makes it very easy to roll 7
Don't try to claim copyright on the "yo set" I have beat you to it. See blog.
Now I'm very interested in the "Yo Set"
I see quite a few people making the 5,6,8, field bet. I personally think playing 32 across with parlay/pressing the horn is better especially when "Yo" gets rolled.
