Lost more $ with #'s working during Passline roll!

Wizard says have #s working during a Passline roll is best strategy.

but i seem to lose more $ that way.

ie: The point has been hit, so it's a new Passline roll.
I have $ on 3 to 4 #s and have them all ON.

it seems every other time the # rolled isnt a # i have $ on, or is a 7.
so for every # i hit, i net negative 2-3 #'s.

worst case scenario: I have $ with max odds on ALL the #'s. so i have 6 #'s.
If a Passline 7 rolls, i lose them all, and have to hit a # on 6 future passline rolls just to break even.

Is it just bad short term variance?
What's the theorectical on this?

Why is having the numbers working any different than betting the come when you already have come bets or numbers placed? Your bets still have the same odds, and you have some 7 insurance.

Having odds off on your come bets is the EXACT same as not taking odds on your pass line bet. Your variance is reduced, but you're not taking advantage of the free odds that your come bet entitles you to.

Your expected loss is the same whether odds are on or off.

It's all about the variance.

This has been gone over a few times before.
try this thread and the links.
Come Bets
The above post is right. It is all about the variance.
One will expect to make about 68 pass/come odds bets per 100 rolls (if I read the data right)
Some sim data.

Take the sd value and triple it of you want about a 1 in 100 session risk of ruin.
Take the sd value and double it of you want about a 1 in 10 session risk of ruin.

from my simulations ($5 bets with 345X odds, always working)
1000 rolls per session
ev: -57
sd: 1100
egde: -.34%
46% session wins
Bankroll for a ~1% RoR = $3,300

300 rolls per session
ev: -21
sd: 591
egde: -.37%
46% session wins
Bankroll for a ~1% RoR = $1,800

It is the variance and lower edge that allows one to win more times and money compared to place betting.
But one needs the proper starting bankroll to make that a reality.

thx! in each scenario, you said 46% session wins.

whats that?

Quote: 100xOdds

thx! in each scenario, you said 46% session wins.

whats that?

The session, after either the 300 or 1000 rolls, showed, on average, about 46 out of 100 sessions ended with a profit.
I forgot to save the data for the 300 rolls, but there were some big gains in there because of the $600SD.

It is quite surprising considering when you lose making pass/come bets every roll, you lose fast. But the many big wins can easily wipe out the losses in a few sessions.
It is still about proper bankroll and luck.
FYI: The don't pass needs between 30% to 50% more bankroll depending on the odds factor used.

thats it.. no more 'ON' during Passline rolls, especially for .05% more.

i get a little joy for hitting, ALOT of heartache if a 7 comes, especially if there are 3+ #s :(

main thing:
it's just not fun for me

Quote: 100xOdds

thats it.. no more 'ON' during Passline rolls, especially for .05% more.

i get a little joy for hitting, ALOT of heartache if a 7 comes, especially if there are 3+ #s :(

main thing:
it's just not fun for me

That's it. That's gambling.
maybe 50% of the rolls have 3 or more come bets at any one time.

The casinos love it.
The best bets are not made by most craps players. (pass/come and don't/dcome)

They move to the High HE place bets instead, thinking that they have a better advantage and a better chance of winning more and losing less because they can move their bets around or take them down when they want too.

Come bets every roll with max odds has a higher variance than placing all the numbers,same action, but also has a lower ev.
This allows for larger wins while risking the same ruin.
That after a few years of actual play puts more money or keeps more money in your pocket.

Most place bettors will disagree.
So be it.
It means, More money to the casinos from place bettors than line bettors. (same action compared)
See Alan's post here
How Many Come Bets is Too Many?

Of course, place bettors just say that computer simulations are useless in a game of craps. (Also most DIs)
It can never model a real craps game so the results from a computer simulation are absolutely useless and meaningless to real craps players.

ed4313243

wow.. a 'Right' player has a 46% chance of a winning session but a 'Wrong' player has 50%+?!

Whats the strategy for a Wrong bettor? same as a Right better?
ie: Dont pass/continuous dont come?

Quote: 100xOdds

thats it.. no more 'ON' during Passline rolls, especially for .05% more.

i get a little joy for hitting, ALOT of heartache if a 7 comes, especially if there are 3+ #s :(

main thing:
it's just not fun for me

I started working my come odds for the last year. At first it was working great. The shooter was rolling one of my come numbers, and the dealers were looking at my like I could see the future. But then the coin started coming up tails every time. I started losing every time. After losing 3 or 4 come bets on a singe 7, I have adopted a modified version. I will work the odds on 1 or 2 come bets, but that is it. I will work the 4/10 if I am on them. They are tough points to make, and if the shooter is going to set that for the point, I want my odds to get paid on the comeout roll. And if I only lose 1 or 2 odds I don't feel as bad as when 3 or more get whacked.

I always work them, no matter what the number, unless the table is crowded, busy, or I get a "meh" vibe from the crew it would be to much trouble to have "come odds always working."

I find myself playing more "bubble" craps these days since you can turn the bets on and off with the touch of a button, you don't have to tip, and it's less tiring to sit down!