close to break even...
12 only occurs 1 out of 36 rolls.
Ouch!Quote: TheShadow74712 only occurs 1 out of 36 rolls.
You are stating an average. Be careful of them. They can kill bankrolls.
It takes many rolls to have any confidence in an average.
Also an average comes from a distribution.
Looks like there is about a 26.4% chance of seeing 2 or more 12s in 36 rolls.
Here is part of the distribution of 12s in 36 rolls
| wins | (or less) | exact | (or more) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.362710033 | 0.362710033 | 1 |
| 1 | 0.73578321 | 0.373073177 | 0.637289967 |
| 2 | 0.922319798 | 0.186536588 | 0.26421679 |
| 3 | 0.982722122 | 0.060402324 | 0.077680202 |
| 4 | 0.996959813 | 0.014237691 | 0.017277878 |
| 5 | 0.999563276 | 0.002603463 | 0.003040187 |
The actual house edge you experience depends on the odds available.
Quote: TheShadow747It is a comp system that is why I am trying to get as close to even as possible. regrettably it is only 2x odds. take it as a theory question if you want. I want to get as close to 0 house advantage as possible with as little variance as possible betting as much as I can. if pass is 1.41 and dont is 1.36 house advantage I figure betting both would cancel out to a .05% house advantage.
Uhhhhh.... NO! They don't CANCEL each other, they AVERAGE out to be about 1.38% against you.
Quote: TheShadow747ok I see your point, but only a 12 is bad for me. On a 12 pass loses dont pushes. the longer the roll, the more bets, the more odds I have out there. Im standing to lose only 1 bet every 1/36 times. Remember I am not looking to win here, I am looking to bet as much as possible with as little house edge as possible. the house is comping for odds bets at this casino.
If you can tell us how much comps you get for your scheme we can then tell you if you will come out ahead on average, or behind. By the way, I would not be confident that if the pit boss sees you betting this way that your rating will not be as high as you think.
Quote: TheShadow747every $20 bet = 1 penny comp. (odds included so betting come and dont come odds I get max odds comped at 0 house advantage), comps can be redeemed 2 for 1 for reel rewards (slot $), and dont forget mailers and ADT and status.
And Don't Forget .... Pit bosses and Box Men ain't stupid. They know a straddle when they see one. Your money at risk is rather LOW. Its like running four quarters instead of a dollar... the algorithm may count it four times higher but everyone knows it won't be treated that way.
Quote: SOOPOOIf you can tell us how much comps you get for your scheme we can then tell you if you will come out ahead on average, or behind. By the way, I would not be confident that if the pit boss sees you betting this way that your rating will not be as high as you think.
Exactly what I was going to point out. I've had numerous discussions with my box people about this. There's one guy that comes in, bets NOTHING on other shooters, when he gets the dice, it's $5 Pass $5 Don't with up to $3 in the middle for crap, CE, and/or Any Seven. Some box put his action at $3 or $5 when to be fair it should be at least $10.
What I've thought about in the past was take a friend, have him bet Don't while I play Pass on the same shooters. Our bets roughly cancel each other out, we would share in the monetary loss and share in the comp gain. Not really sure if it's worth it though. To point out, you're looking at 1.38% loss on $10 instead of 1.41% loss on just $5. The 12 is killer.
I don't know your agenda - but if you search to almost break even and collect comp points - then you could name it advantage play - a long time ago i read a surveillance report about the subject so it does exist and apparently casinos know about it - i think it is almost impossible to detect if you are clever.
Often a man and a wife will check into a room and use different named players club cards while doing a Do/Don't session at the craps table and pretending not to know each other. Each players club card gets credited with "high action" ... each player gets good room comps... and ain't nobody being fooled by it at all. Least of all the BoxMan who says to the Husband "you are a very valuable player, we will send a bottle of champagne up to your room along with one of the House Hookers for you to enjoy" while watching the reaction of the Wife at the table.
Quote: FleaStiffCasinos don't really care if you its one person or two people who are putting up the money on a straddle.... its the same to the casino.
You are reducing your variance to the variance of how often 12 comes up. The casinos like less variance, as does anyone with the odds on their side.
Quote: TheShadow747I am trying to keep details somewhat vague so casinos don't catch on, but trust me they are comping on odds and even when you bet against yourself. There is no boxman or floorperson to worry about. This is electronic craps, so noone to worry about.
$20=$.01, so you are getting .05% cash back. 2/3 of the time you are going to get a number you can put odds on. To make it easy, let's say you are flatting $20 on both sides, and getting $40 in odds on both sides. 2/3 of the time you will have $120 in action, for $.06 in comps. The other 1/3 of the time you will have $.02 in comps on your bet. Let's assume math or rolls works out perfectly here:
Your $20 line bet theoretically loses $.282 every time you bet it.
Your $20 Don't loses $.272 every time you bet it.
Every time a bet is resolved you will lose $.554
2/3 of the time you will get points on $80 worth of odds. For simplicity sake, that is odds on $53.33 each roll, plus $40 in line bets.
The house advantage on your idea is .6%, but you are only getting .05% in points. There better be some great discretionary comps, or else you are going to be in for a long and painful grind down. Why not just bet twice as much on one side and hope you win? You are a coin toss really, and you will pay the same vig.
There is a way to make this work if you knew what the theo comp was, and you were getting more than .05%, but this seems like a boring night.
Quote: TheShadow747the "fringe" benefits of this is tiering up to 7 star status at Caesars entertainment and getting all those benefits. Also the mailers you will get with free play and such.
Good luck. As a lowly gold player, I have no idea what the 'value' of getting that '7 star status' is. If Caesar's said to you, just pay me 'x' dollars and you will be 7 stars for a year, what would you pay?
Quote: TheShadow747the "fringe" benefits of this is tiering up to 7 star status at Caesars entertainment and getting all those benefits. Also the mailers you will get with free play and such.
In order to achieve 7* at CZRs you have to get 100,000 tier credits. You get 1 tier credit for every $5 you play at a slot machine (5/1). That's $500,000 played at a slot machine. To earn 1 tier credit at Video Poker, you have to play $10 (10/1). That's $1,000,000.
You said the craps machine you are playing earns you $1 for every $20 (20/1). In order to earn 100,000 tier credits, you would have to play $2,000,000.....TWO MILLION DOLLARS!!!!!
You have to earn those 100,000 credits between Jan 1 and Dec 31.
Good Luck with your plan and let us know how you're doing.
According to their website, here are the things that Seven Stars offers which Diamond does not:
1. Complimentary room (but Diamond players can get this too by booking one of the free room offers online)
2. Companion card (just go to the booth and have them make you a new card and give that to your "companion")
3. Annual getaway to any TR casino (free airfare)
4. $500 "celebration dinner" (probably for use only at a ridiculously-overpriced restaurant where the bill is likely to exceed $500)
5. A cruise (likely for the cheapest room only, with blackout dates and other restrictions)
6. An "exclusive appreciation gift"
7. Invitation to signature events
#1 and #2 are worth $0 more than the Diamond level;
#3 is worth $500 or less;
#4 is probably really only worth $100 but let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say that it's worth $500;
#5 might be worth $1000 if it's for 2 people;
#6 is probably worth $50 or less; and
#7 is worth $0.
So you're getting a flight, a dinner, a cruise, and a trinket, totaling about $2,000.
Now ask yourself: is the $2,000 worth of additional benefits (beyond those given to Diamond members) really worth putting 7 figures through a craps machine?
If not, I say go for Diamond in a Day instead (if you aren't already Diamond). I think you need 3000 points in a single day, but there are rumors circulating the net saying that Vegas casinos require 4000 points in a single day. If you can play single-hand 9/6 Jacks or Better at 1200 hands/hour, which is easy on fast and medium-paced machines, then choose whichever of the following best suits your bankroll:
| Coin Size | Bet per Hand | Duration (3000 pts) | Duration (4000 pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | $125 | 12 minutes | 16 minutes |
| $10 | $50 | 30 minutes | 40 minutes |
| $5 | $25 | 1 hour | 1 hour 20 minutes |
Then head to the TR booth to get your new Diamond card.
Quote: JBAccording to their website, here are the things that Seven Stars offers which Diamond does not:
1. Complimentary room (but Diamond players can get this too by booking one of the free room offers online
BIG DIFFERENCE FOR SEVEN STARS! This is a GUARANTEED ROOM at ALL TIMES! And I believe, though may be mistaken, 48 hours notice gets you the highest available upgrade possible.
Quote: JB2. Companion card (just go to the booth and have them make you a new card and give that to your "companion")
3. Annual getaway to any TR casino (free airfare)
4. $500 "celebration dinner" (probably for use only at a ridiculously-overpriced restaurant where the bill is likely to exceed $500)
5. A cruise (likely for the cheapest room only, with blackout dates and other restrictions)
6. An "exclusive appreciation gift"
7. Invitation to signature events
#1 and #2 are worth $0 more than the Diamond level;
#3 is worth $500 or less;
#4 is probably really only worth $100 but let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say that it's worth $500;
#5 might be worth $1000 if it's for 2 people;
#6 is probably worth $50 or less; and
#7 is worth $0.
So you're getting a flight, a dinner, a cruise, and a trinket, totaling about $2,000.
I respectively disagree about the value of these things to the player. The "invitation events" are actually pretty nice, and sometimes are to slot tournaments with high payouts. A skilled tournament BJ player could probably see a good EV from an invite to a BJ tournament. The cruise is still probably very nice, as they have partnered with Norwegian and it's probably a very nice room. The appreciation gifts for Seven Stars (on top of renewal gifts, etc) I have been told are quite nice, like jewelry or something worth something.
That being said, I agree that the coin-in on machines isn't worth it. Seven Stars are for hardcore gamblers who have a bankroll, and you won't get invited just by earning the points. You better have a credit line established and have a good host to back you. But if you gamble a lot, and like Caesars properties, Seven Stars is a good program.
AS FOR THE ORIGINAL POST, hmmm.... a new poster basically offering a betting system or more appropriately, a money management system. However, this one wasn't under betting systems... I guess it's how you word it...
Quote: TiltpoulBIG DIFFERENCE FOR SEVEN STARS! This is a GUARANTEED ROOM at ALL TIMES! And I believe, though may be mistaken, 48 hours notice gets you the highest available upgrade possible.
Their website states that you are guaranteed a room if you give at least 48 hours notice. It may be for a nice room, but I'm sure Diamond members can get the same. Even if they can't, how useful is a "nice" room compared to a "Diamond" room for someone who is known to spend very little time in their room?
Quote: TiltpoulI respectively disagree about the value of these things to the player. The "invitation events" are actually pretty nice, and sometimes are to slot tournaments with high payouts. A skilled tournament BJ player could probably see a good EV from an invite to a BJ tournament.
I misinterpreted the phrase "Invitation to signature events." To me it sounded an awful lot like "Come listen to our CEO tell the Seven Stars members how great they are."
Quote: TiltpoulThe cruise is still probably very nice, as they have partnered with Norwegian and it's probably a very nice room.
So, maaaaaybe it's worth $1200 tops, if the 7S member is allowed to bring a companion.
Quote: TiltpoulI agree that the coin-in on machines isn't worth it. Seven Stars are for hardcore gamblers who have a bankroll, and you won't get invited just by earning the points. You better have a credit line established and have a good host to back you. But if you gamble a lot, and like Caesars properties, Seven Stars is a good program.
Nearly all casinos treat 7S and Diamond members equally in terms of cab, cashier, and buffet lines. In terms of appearing superior to lowly Gold and Platinum members, the two tiers seem equal.
Quote: TiltpoulAS FOR THE ORIGINAL POST, hmmm.... a new poster basically offering a betting system or more appropriately, a money management system. However, this one wasn't under betting systems... I guess it's how you word it...
I genuinely don't believe he was offering a betting system. What he was asking was whether the types of bets he was planning on making in an attempt to gain 7S status were low-risk and have a low expected loss.
To TheShadow747: I still say you would be better off trying to achieve 7S status by playing 9/6 Jacks or Better. The $1 million of required coin-in has an expected loss of $4561 versus $5305 using your proposed craps method.
Quote: JBTheir website states that you are guaranteed a room if you give at least 48 hours notice. It may be for a nice room, but I'm sure Diamond members can get the same. Even if they can't, how useful is a "nice" room compared to a "Diamond" room for someone who is known to spend very little time in their room?
I'm Diamond with Caesars, and I can't get comped rooms on weekends at peak times, even with 48 hours notice. I also know, at least from a front desk clerk at North Kansas City, that hotels have to hold back about 5 rooms nightly for 7 Stars guests only, who may request one at any time. It may not be a suite, but they don't want to have to put that person up at a local or competitor hotel if they want. It is still VERY different.
Quote: JBNearly all casinos treat 7S and Diamond members equally in terms of cab, cashier, and buffet lines. In terms of appearing superior to lowly Gold and Platinum members, the two tiers seem equal.
In Vegas, this may be true. However, in the regional properties, and especially at the mid-tier properties with big bankrolls (i.e. Horseshoe Council Bluffs, Horseshoe Hammond, and what used to be Harrah's Maryland Heights), Seven Stars still have different lines and other benefits. I agree this is more property-based, but as a Diamond card holder, it actually does make me want to achieve 7 Star status. Not enough to gamble THAT much, but when they add the next tier at 25,000 credits, I will try to earn that.
Actually, FWIW, they now have a new program where earning 10,000 RCs in a quarter gets you a one-quarter pass to deals very similar to Seven Stars. It's pretty smart, giving Diamond players the chance to taste the good life.
Quote: TiltpoulI'm Diamond with Caesars, and I can't get comped rooms on weekends at peak times, even with 48 hours notice. I also know, at least from a front desk clerk at North Kansas City, that hotels have to hold back about 5 rooms nightly for 7 Stars guests only, who may request one at any time. It may not be a suite, but they don't want to have to put that person up at a local or competitor hotel if they want. It is still VERY different.
Understood.
Quote: TiltpoulIn Vegas, this may be true. However, in the regional properties, and especially at the mid-tier properties with big bankrolls (i.e. Horseshoe Council Bluffs, Horseshoe Hammond, and what used to be Harrah's Maryland Heights), Seven Stars still have different lines and other benefits. I agree this is more property-based, but as a Diamond card holder, it actually does make me want to achieve 7 Star status. Not enough to gamble THAT much, but when they add the next tier at 25,000 credits, I will try to earn that.
Actually, FWIW, they now have a new program where earning 10,000 RCs in a quarter gets you a one-quarter pass to deals very similar to Seven Stars. It's pretty smart, giving Diamond players the chance to taste the good life.
Well, they know what they're doing - enticing people who aren't at the highest tier yet to gamble harder for a couple extra perks.
