Any but 7 variation

Mr. Wizard, in the Anything-But-7 system, what would the HA be if I waited for the point to be established on the first or second roll ( if the point is established on the third roll or after then I don't bet), bet the 5,6,8, and field and see the resolution on the very next roll, and then turned my bets off until the next shooter?
I start with 10,12,12 5(field). I do use a Martingale if the 7 pops. The next bet would be 60,72,72, 40(field). If the 7 pops would be 600,612,612, 300(field) so I buy in with 2,500
I've played this for the last 4 months for 9 sessions and have not lost. I have used the second series of bets but haven't had to use the 3rd series as of yet.
What are the probabilities of the first series? Looking for that specific roll?
The second series?
The third series?
Funny story recently where a pit boss got tired of me turning my place bets off and waiting patiently to then turn them on and back off again. He had the boxman take them down without asking. I was very polite and just re-bet them and kept on with the system. Why would this aggravate them? It is a legal bet, huh?

Quote: wrragsdale

Mr. Wizard, in the Anything-But-7 system

I'll bet dollars to donuts the Wizard will not reply, and Franklins to donuts he won't crunch numbers [perhaps others will]. He is inundated with this sort of thing, he says.

For my own advice, I would discontinue mixing in bets with the kind of house edge that "anything but 7" entails. I believe you have to include one-roll proposition bets, which are absolute murder. You cannot defeat the high HA with a martingale or anything else. If you had a valid question for a statistician to look into, it wouldnt be how you are eliminating HA but how many standard deviations it would take to continue being an overall winner with your system. I have a hunch one person in 10,000 could do so over a dozen trips to the craps table.

What the Wizard would really like to hear is how you boned up on all of his stuff and discarded all belief in betting schemes and systems. If you enjoy playing that way, that is a different matter.

I got news for you.
You piss off ALL dice crews.
This means the Box gets pissed too and eventually "the suits" are going to end it.
By the way, you piss off everyone else at the table too.

You want to play craps? Then put your money down and take your chance.

Quote: wrragsdale

Funny story recently where a pit boss got tired of me turning my place bets off and waiting patiently to then turn them on and back off again. He had the boxman take them down without asking. I was very polite and just re-bet them and kept on with the system. Why would this aggravate them? It is a legal bet, huh?

Why would it aggravate them? Because it complicates the table. Another stack to work around and another stack for dice to slam into. All for no bet? Turning a bet "off" is accepted for a roll or two, usually when someone has a "hunch" but as all on this board knows this does not matter. But if you are going to keep them off just take the bets down.

I teach this system as "Modified Iron Cross" to players who seem to want action. New craps players want action. Saw it alst night at a company party. And it is a gender thing. Women throws dice. Point established. Throws 2-3 times. Asks, "is this all there is to this game?" Can't wait to point or 7-out so she can play something else. Teach the Field Bet. They can't handle much more. Roll, roll, roll. "Is this it?" Makes point, show payoff, ask if they want to learn more bets. They say no. Husband wants to keep playing. Point established. Roll, roll, roll. "This game is boring!" "Why did you pay me?" "Why did you take my money?"

And I keep wondering why "Casino War" has its fans.........

If the field pays 3:1 on the 12, the anything but 7 using your betting pattern is calculated as.

2: $10 x 1/36
3,4,9,10,11: $5 x 14/36
12: $15 x 1/36
6, 8: $9 x 10/36
5: $9 x 4/36
7: -$39 x 6/36

Expected value: -.36111
House advantage (per roll): 0.926%.

On your second set, the expected value is -$2.444
House advantage per roll: 1.002%

On your third set, the expected value is -$20.6667 with a HA of 0.973%

Since all bet are independent, you lose your martingale completely after a 7 rolls three times in a row in your system (doesn't matter that there are rolls in between), which WILL happen on average, once in every 216 sessions.

That is, in 216 sessions, you are expected to lose $2,407 once.

In fact, we can sum your experience into 14 possible results.

Scenario	Description	$ Result	Probability	Expected Value
1	Field 3,4,9,10,11	$5	.388889	$1.9444
2	Field 12	15	.027778	0.4167
3	Field 2	10	.027778	0.2778
4	Place 5,6,8	9	.388889	3.5000
Round 2
5	Field 3,4,9,10,11	$1	.064815	$0.0648
6	Field 12	81	.004630	0.3750
7	Field 2	41	.004630	0.1898
8	Place 5,6,8	5	.064815	0.3241
Round 3
9	Field 3,4,9,10,11	$17	.010802	$0.1836
10	Field 12	617	.000772	0.4761
11	Field 2	317	.000772	0.2446
12	Place 6,8	131	.007716	1.0108
13	Place 5	257	.003086	0.7932
14	Lose the FARM	-2,407	.004630	-11.1435
Totals			1.000000	$-1.3426

The expected value of this system for you is to lose $1.3426 at the start of each set of rolls. Your average bet is $138.667. This works out to a house advantage of 0.968%.

I spent about 40 minutes working out this. Please send a check for $40 to your problem gambling institution of your choice, and let us know when you "lose the farm".

Good luck.

thanks for the info. i'll send an extra 40 to the RNC . would never lose the farm, but 'preciate you looking out. the game is just so fascinating. i'll discontinue turning the bets off. you all make valid points and i enjoy being at the table....thanks again

Quote: boymimbo

Please send a check for $40 to your problem gambling institution of your choice

Quote: wrragsdale

i'll send an extra 40 to the RNC .

In this year's political climate, that's a pretty good analogy.

it's always amazed me at the hypocrisy that are we as people. take gingrich as an example...he's was really on no one's radar until the right (i'm on the right) starts buying in and his numbers start to climb. now he's a pinata for the left and they pay these anonymous cheese balls to dig up dirt. NOW...gingrich is a slime ball for the worst betrayal i can think of (been married 17 yrs), and that's the deception of cheating on our spouse. he's ethically challenged, no doubt!!! BUT......
he's politically savy and his positions on foreign policy, immigration, spending cuts, taxation, etc... are a way for us to have a chance to turn this around.
We are a mess! Hypocrisy run rampant with the current admin. what a train wreck!!! did you listen to Holder and his explanations of F&F?!?!?!
but that's all of them...
we need fixes, and fixers. someone who wants one term, put it back on track and get out.