Perceptions of Fire Bet Frequency

Putting actual statistics aside... in your opinion, how often do you perceive the Fire Bet to hit for 4/5/6 numbers per # of shooters, hour, visit, shift, week, or month? Please indicate if you work in the industry.

Sorry. Ain't never thought about it. Ain't never worked in the industry either.

I don't work in the industry.

I will play the fire bet but most of the casinos I go to do not have it. Even in the best "hot roll" situations I have had in a casino that has the bet, it did not hit even at the lowest payout.

My perception is that the only people who hit the fire bet are people who know better than to play when I am around.

I've never played the actual bet itself, but I've only seen payouts on the table 3 or 4 times. Twice, they had 5 points and were working to hit the 6th point before they 7'nd out. The other times it was just 4 points. I don't work in the industry, but my opinion is that it doesn't hit enough to justify playing it.

I used to play a lot of craps. I've only heard of 6 point fires a couple of times (I threw one of them and don't anticipate ever throwing another one again). They say that the odds of hitting a 6 point fire are about 6,000:1. The five pointers I hit once (about 600:1) and the four pointers come up fairly often (about 110:1). The four pointers probably hit once if you're working an 8 hour shift; the five pointers you'd see once a week, and a six pointer once a season. This is based on seeing about 200 comes outs and perhaps 100 shooters per shift. Keep in mind that the fire bet only happens when a shooter starts their roll.

My personal experience is that the fire bet comes up about as often as it should. At the time when I hit my six pointer, I'd been playing craps for about 7 years and only had two other similar shooting experiences in my career (when the fire bet wasn't offerred) and I estimate that's I've been the shooter on the magnitude of about 2,000 comeouts, so I've been lucky.

Quote: Tiltpoul

... my opinion is that it doesn't hit enough to justify playing it.

Mathematicallly, I agree.

But it's the only side bet I'll play.

Reason is, it's only a buck, and it's active for a long time.

I don't play craps all that often but now that I've played the fire be I won't play craps without it... the game just isn't as much fun in my opinion. I've seen a 6 point payout twice and wasn't on it either time. I rolled a 5 point winner once, on my last roll about 4 years ago at the RIO, just before we went to the airport. My friend has won a 6-pointer 3 times and he's rolled it himself once. He's hit a 5 and 4 pointer many times and he says it's the only bet in any casino where he's ahead. He does play a lot of craps and seeing that he's probably won about $20,000 on the bets I'd say he probably is ahead.

My perception? Well my perception is that it almost never pays off, which is pretty much what the statistics indicate.

I don't usually play the fire bet, but of those times that I have played, I think I am actually ahead on the money, which is amazing. My guess is that I have played the wager a total of 40 to 60 times ever, at $1 each time. In August 2010, I won in Tunica for $250, and last Thursday evening I won in Biloxi for $25. I'll probably keep tossing out $1 occasionally on a whim.

When I play, I mostly play craps. I have played the Fire Bet a few times and got close to a win. Was at a table that hit five points, but arrived after the come out roll. It adds a some fun to the table.

The last time I was in Vegas, I played the All Small/All Tall/All or Nothing side bet at The Encore. That was a lot of fun and I decided prefer it to the Fire Bet. It is a lot like the Shut The Box game concept that was bantered about here in the last several months. I think the increased fun of the bet is that you can make progress towards a win without having to hit the point. Mid point rolls of 2's, 3's, 11's & 12's are huge as they are the hardest numbers to roll but they have no impact on your point status.

With the Fire Bet, the only items that matter are the 7 and the point so you are still left with lots of rolls that provide no "progress" on your Fire Bet or your Line Bet. Obviously you can light up the numbers on by placing them or through multiple Come bets, but the point is with the All Small/Tall that you get some action in between the action on your main bet. I think that is why to me the Tall/Small adds more to the game.

I likely will continue to speculate on both when I have a "feeling", but prefer the Small/Tall/Nothing prop bet.

The All bets are similar to the Fire bet in that they're active for an extended period of time. But not nearly as long.

Also, ANY 7 is a loser.

Therefore, if you're on the pass line, you can't be rooting for a mid-roll 7 because of the All bet.


But if you like it, go ahead and play it.

I've got a side bet for ya'. It's called "just freakin' craps." If someone hits 5 unique points, I will have made $1,000+ anyways, so it holds no interest for me.

That's exactly what I said about the Repeater bet at the Orleans. It pays out if the same point is made more than twice in the same roll. I was "well, if that happens, I'm happy anyways...".

I've kept track. If I play 4-5 hours of craps, one player will hit four numbers or more.

Only once in the past three years have I seen the fire bet pay off twice in the same trip, and a trip can be two days of play.

I've been at only one table where the fire bet paid on all six numbers.

I've been at three tables in three years when the fire bet paid on five numbers, and I was one of those shooters.

Because of the three 5-number payoffs, and the single 6-number payoffs, I figure I have a net win on the fire bet.

But on my last trip when I played about 3 hours of craps, I figure I lost about $400 on the fire bet ($10 per play), no one hit four different numbers, despite some shooters who rolled 8 or more passes (repeaters).

I've collected two six point fire bets this year. The first one, on a Sunday morning in April, I was alone at the table and hit six with $5 on it. I laid the fifth point, a 10, for $800, and naturally I rolled a ten the very next roll. The sixth point was a six or eight and I laid everything I had, $1,600 on that number. I made the point shortly after and collected $5,000, but I only won about $2,400.

Second time was about a month ago, a young man was shooting, and he had $1 on the fire and was playing just the pass line. I had only $2 on the fire, so I did not lay the fifth or sixth points. Won the $2,000 and ended up about $3,200 ahead.

My perception is that if I play casually once every year or so, I can afford to pay a few dollars for the thrill of it over a one or two hour session. And if I get lucky it will have been worth it.

But it is a bad bet. I'll feel the Wizard's presence scolding me all the while :P