boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5994
October 31st, 2011 at 11:27:40 AM permalink
See my analysis at the bottom of page 6 for pass vs don't pass. The "cheating" has been tested on both sides.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 1881
October 31st, 2011 at 11:27:56 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

If you can discover the pattern in how the game is tweaked to be unfair (and boymimbo may be right above), then it should be possible to place small bets to trigger that unfair distribution and then place large bets to take advantage of it after the comeout roll.

...Then, after a point is established don't take any odds but instead make a lay bet on the point for 5x or more of the line bet amount..



This is what kept me from sleeping last night. I don't want to prove the casino wrong, but I'd love to see someone clean out the casino.

I was thinking of making $1 wagers on the don't pass, then make larger place bets on the point number.

While the rest of the conversation was going on, I reviewed video 5. (In hopes of someone cleaning this place out)


don't l 4 11 12 5 2 3 2 9 9 8 9 6 3 4
don't l 8 6 9 8
don't l 9 11 8 6 11 3 9
don't l 7
don't l 9 9
don't l 4 4
don't l 6 2 4 8 10 4 9 4 5 10 6
don't l 11
don't l 7
don't w 6 5 9 8 7
don't w 4 8 5 9 9 8 9 7
don't w 9 4 8 2 4 5 7
don't l 7
don't w 10 6 6 6 7
don't l 5 9 9 6 6 6 8 6 5
don't l 9 9
don't l 8 3 6 5 9 6 12 8
don't l 7
don't l 9 5 5 10 12 9
don't l 5 6 6 10 10 11 9 8 8 5
don't w 2
don't l 5 12 6 9 11 5
don't l 7
don't l 8 3 8
don't w 4 6 5 3 12 5 7
don't l 12 10 5 9 9 3 2 11 8 6 9 5 10
don't w 8 11 4 11 4 7
don't l 8 10 9 8
don't l 7
don't l 9 9
don't w 8 10 6 6 10 5 9 5 6 11 9 10 10 6 10 3 6 9 10 7
don't l 4 4
don't l 8 8
don't w 9 12 11 7
don't w 2
don't l 6 10 6
don't l 10 10
don't l 7
don't w 8 9 7
don't l 9 6 5 6 9
don't l 7
don't l 10 4 10
don't l 6 10 5 5 6
don't l 7
don't l 7
don't l 7
don't l 9 9
don't l 4 5 6 3 8 8 4
don't w 9 6 10 7
don't l 5 8 9 11 4 6 11 10 5
don't l 4 9 6 5 9 4
don't l 11
don't l 12 11
don't l 6 5 10 6
don't l 10 10
don't l 11
don't w 9 7
don't l 6 9 8 6
don't l 10 5 10
don't l 5 11 9 6 4 9 9 5
don't l 4 8 8 3 5 5 5 4
don't l 6 10 6
don't w 4 3 8 6 2 6 7
don't l 7
don't w 8 6 3 7
don't l 7
don't l 11
don't l 4 9 2 6 8 10 6 8 9 4
don't w 9 7
don't l 7
don't l 5 10 12 3 11 8 11 9 10 8 10 5
don't w 9 6 3 5 4 6 10 2 5 5 7
don't w 5 6 9 7
don't l 6 3 6
don't l 8 10 10 8
don't l 11
don't l 7
don't l 7
don't l 7
don't l 12 7
don't l 4 4
don't l 8 4 6 8
don't l 8 6 10 9 8
don't l 10 6 2 5 4 10
don't l 9 4 6 4 3 5 4 9
don't l 8 10 8
don't w 8 7
don't l 7
don't l 4 4
don't w 9 10 7
don't l 8 11 8
don't w 3
don't l 10 10
don't l 6 4 6
don't l 5 10 6 10 9 8 3 9 8 9 5
don't l 6 8 6
don't l 8 9 9 9 6 9 8
don't l 5 3 3 5
don't l 6 10 2 4 5 11 5 5 5 6
don't w 5 7
I heart Crystal Math.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
October 31st, 2011 at 12:14:05 PM permalink
With that data, $1 don't + $6 each 6 and 8 always working yields -56 on the line, +356 on the place bets, net +300. Go for it.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5994
October 31st, 2011 at 12:56:29 PM permalink
Video 5, in table format:

Video 5Result1234567891011121314151617181920212223
401L4111252329989634
402L8698
403L911861139
404L7
405L99
406L44
407L6248104945106
408L11
409L7
410W65987
411W482457
412w9482457
413L7
414W106667
415L59966865
416L99
417L836596128
418L7
419L95510129
420L5661010119885
421W2
422L51269115
423L7
424L838
425W46531257
426L12105993211869510
427W81141147
428L81098
429L7
430L99
431W81066105956119101061010610369107
432L44
433L88
434W912117
435W2
436L6106
437L1019
438L7
439W897
440L96569
441L7
442L10410
443L610556
444L7
445L7
446L7
447L99
448L4563884
449W96107
450L589114611105
451L496594
452L11
453L1211
454L65106
455L1010
456L11
457W97
458L6986
459L10510
460L511964995
461L48835554
462L6106
463W4386267
464L7
465W8637
466L7
467L11
468L49268106894
469W97
470L7
471L510123118119108105
472W963546102557
473W5697
474L636
475L810108
476L11
477L7
478L7
479L7
480L127
481L44
482L8468
483L861098
484L10625410
485L94643549
486L8108
487W87
488L7
489L44
490W9107
491L8118
492W3
493L1010
494L646
495L5106109839895
496L686
497L8999698
498L5335
499L610245115556
500W57


After the come out, 19 sevens in 320 rolls! Features 5 4 point fires and a five point fire to boot!

Impressive.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5994
October 31st, 2011 at 1:16:03 PM permalink
Video 7, in table format. Note that these are pass bets with the exception of the WD rolls where the OP won on the don't.

Video 7Result12345678910
2801W7
2802L3
2803L12
2804L3
2805L12
2806L61144937
2807WD4387
2808L3
2809W7
2810L87
2811W10310
2812L967
2813L67
2814W11
2815L2
2816L47
2817L9486527
2818L12
2819L98667
2820W8610103566108
2821WD597
2822L107
2823L2
2824L597
2825L427
2826L57
2827L2
2828L2
2829W41034
2830L812337
2831W99
2832L12
2833W7
2834L57
2835L6397
2836L3
2837L3
2838L109855467
2839L87
2840W88
2841L5847
2842L891066667
2843L107
2844L87
2845L657
2846L893967
2847L467
2848L967
2849L857
2850W9119
2851W55
2852L93108117
2853W49954
2854L54127
2855L2
2856L957
2857W11
2858L47
2859W464
2860W7
2861L67
2862W11
2863L3
2864L657
2865L68107
2866L547
2867L2
2868L49107
2869L87
2870L107
2871L831166109447
2872L567
2873L87
2874L87
2875L94268431067
2876W11
2877L8117
2878L6837
2879W11
2880L6811337
2881L3
2882L862627
2883WD98107
2884L8126101197
2885L2
2886L3
2887L5892107
2888L12
2889W66
2890L47
2891L9117
2892L6887
2893L5111110883997
2894W7
2895W7
2896L87
2897L95363113667
2898L587
2899W88
2900L4667


Frequency of Craps at come out: 18/100 (should be 11.11). Frequency of 7, 11 at come out 6 (should be 16.67) and 5 (should be 5.56) out of 100, respectively.

Frequency of 7 after point (when betting pass): 55 times in 197 rolls (27.92% - should be 16.67%). Wow, that's a turn.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 7706
October 31st, 2011 at 1:30:28 PM permalink
I have not read every post, but if the OP has not identified which online "casino" has perpetrated this crime, then he should. ME has implied that there may be a specific software program which might be exploitable.... I think there may be a $2 an hour guy just choosing numbers..... And, OP, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.... After 3100 such 'rolls', what did you think would happen from roll 3100 to 3200?
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 639
October 31st, 2011 at 1:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I have not read every post, but if the OP has not identified which online "casino" has perpetrated this crime, then he should. ME has implied that there may be a specific software program which might be exploitable.... I think there may be a $2 an hour guy just choosing numbers..... And, OP, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.... After 3100 such 'rolls', what did you think would happen from roll 3100 to 3200?

The name of the casino is "World Wide Wagering" with URL http://www.wager.dm. The software is from BLR Tech
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
weaselman
weaselman
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 2349
October 31st, 2011 at 2:52:47 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

With that data, $1 don't + $6 each 6 and 8 always working yields -56 on the line, +356 on the place bets, net +300. Go for it.


I don't understand why you guys are so sure this is exploitable. All the program needs to do is, after the bets are made, calculate which number if rolled will maximize the loss for the player, and then inflate the probability of that number, correspondingly decreasing the probabilities of others. What's "sophisticated" about it?
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 639
October 31st, 2011 at 2:55:47 PM permalink
Quote: weaselman

I don't understand why you guys are so sure this is exploitable. All the program needs to do is, after the bets are made, calculate which number if rolled will maximize the loss for the player, and then inflate the probability of that number, correspondingly decreasing the probabilities of others. What's "sophisticated" about it?

As an experiment, the OP should wager on both Pass and Don't simultaneously and see how often 12's come up 8-)
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
October 31st, 2011 at 4:22:06 PM permalink
Quote: weaselman

I don't understand why you guys are so sure this is exploitable. All the program needs to do is, after the bets are made, calculate which number if rolled will maximize the loss for the player, and then inflate the probability of that number, correspondingly decreasing the probabilities of others. What's "sophisticated" about it?


I'm not sure it's exploitable, but based on my knowledge of online casino software developers, I doubt they spent too much time on their craps implementation. Craps is a remarkably low-revenue game online. As a result, while I can't rule it out, I would doubt that the engineers spent much effort on their risk-mitigation software. The test I proposed above should yield a relatively low-cost answer.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

  • Jump to: