Strategy against the PSO

So having gone through a fair number of sessions where no one seems to make a point has me searching for an alternative to the PL/odds bet. A friend and I have come up with the following play. The problem is, it is a bit unwieldy, and can slow the table down with a slow dealer, or a very full table. However, it has been working okay for me after a few trips. (I have not played it all the time, but I have kept track of the number of times it would have lost, and it has been a winner so far, save for 1 time where it would have gotten me killed.)

(I understand that waiting for a point, and being OFF on the come out, serves no purpose, other than to keep me aligned with the shooter as much as possible)

Wait for the point to be established, and then bet $220 inside (50,60,60,50). Include the point if it is an inside number.
Also LAY the 10 for $520+$13 vig. (or LAY the 4, whatever your preference)
As soon as one of the inside numbers is rolled, take all Place and Lay bets down, and set up $66 inside (15,18,18,15).
Press the 6/8 to make the following bets ( 30,42,60,90,120,150 )
Press the 5/9 to make the following bets ( 25,40,60,90,120,150 )
If the shooter makes a point, inside bets are OFF on the come-out. (This is just so you can stay sided with the shooter if they happen to roll a 7 winner).
If the LAY bet is lost, take down the $220 and session is over. If you have the BR to put up another LAY, that is an option, but that could be a quick -$1066.


Now, let's look at how this setup fares:

The BAD: (I prefer to LAY 10, but I will LAY 4 if the point is 10, so as not to be in direct conflict with the shooter)
I lose $533 if the shooter rolls a 10 before they roll the 5,6,7,8,or 9
So 3 ways I can lose, versus 24 ways I can win, and 9 pushes (2,3,4,11,12).

The GOOD:
IF the shooter goes PSO, then I win $27. (520 lay = 260 - 13 vig - 220 inside bet = $27 net)
IF the shooter rolls any inside number (18 chances = 50%) I win $70 - $66 (to set up new inside bet) = $4 (guaranteed winning roll)
If a 6/8 is rolled, my bank increases in the following amounts (+9 ,+23,+31,+40,+75,+110,+145)
If a 5/9 is rolled, my bank increases in the following amounts (+11,+20,+36,+54,+96,+138,+180)

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There are a number of things I like about this scheme. First off, when I have the most money on the table ( 220 + 520 +13vig ) I come out a winner if the 7 shows up. If not, I have a 50% chance one of the inside numbers gets rolled, which makes me, at minimum, a $4 winner. If the average shooter rolls 8 times, and if 3 of them are inside numbers, I will average $20-$25 win per shooter. Of course, I lose $533 if I get that 8% chance a 10 is rolled and takes down the big LAY bet.
It is also an easy strategy to track when you are not playing it, to see if it would have worked out. Basically all you need to do is track the first throws after the point, to see if an inside number is rolled before the 10. Very easy to track.

I created a spreadsheet of different Press strategies and charted the resulting bankroll. The press strategy above creates the biggest bankroll for rolls where a single number is rolled 7 or less times, which is the vast majority of the time. I liked the Pull, Full Press strategy prior to charting the results, but it is only a clear cut winner after a number is hit 8 times, if I remember correctly.

I programmed Wincraps to play this strategy (but using my old Pull, Full Press strategy). Each shooter is a game, so 100 shooters=100 games. It consistently shows over 65% of the shooters end up with a positive outcome. Not surprisingly though, the 35% that lose, lose more than the wins totaled, so over the long haul, this scheme loses the same as every other way (damn laws of math). However, when I run 40 shooters at a time, a fair amount of the time I do end up with a mean on the positive side, meaning I made money for that 40 shooter session (about 4 times around a full table).

What about the Four-Barrel Shotgun? I've stood through an hour of PSOs breaking even while all the heavy place bettors around me are busting out left and right. Make up to four line bets (pass and/or come) without odds, and as soon as you have four numbers covered, put odds on all of them at once (hence "shotgun"). Then stop betting until the points get hit. Keep track of # odds bets won (W) and make a come bet (with odds) whenever W > # numbers covered. Eventually a hot shooter will have W >= 6 and then you're always making come bets. Start pressing your odds at that point, followed by line bets if you want. I had a $700 hand during G2E with this, including the last 6 rolls off-and-on for $70 ($5 + 3/4/5x) while the bases were loaded. 1 red for 3 green. I love that deal.

The best part is that a PSO is a wash, and there are only four times when you can lose (other than craps rolls). If the shooter has hit 2 or 3 numbers before 7-out, you lose the extra line bets and your last come bet cancels out the pass loss. Or if you've already put up odds and the shooter makes none or just one of your numbers before 7-out, you lose a bunch of money. If the shooter hits at least two of your numbers you're in the black and there's no looking back. I usually play until I get two full losses (7-out with all four points covered w/ odds). At a $10 table starting at 2x odds and planning to press to 3/4/5, that's $120 each time. If I do a standard buy-in of $300 and hit two losses in a row, I'm still leaving with enough to have dinner.

ME, I had never heard about this shotgun approach, it sounds pretty good and fun. I just worry about how I'd feel as those numbers are getting hit with no odds on them before the four numbers are up. Can this work with a double barreled shotgun?

Quote: MathExtremist

I had a $700 hand during G2E with this, including the last 6 rolls off-and-on for $70 ($5 + 3/4/5x) while the bases were loaded. 1 red for 3 green. I love that deal.

($10 + 3/4/5x) sounds more like it.
Nice.

I watched a lady play something close to the 4 Barrel Shotgun at Rapid Craps at Bill's Casino yesterday. Funny this thread pops up.

She said she and her husband, being from the state of Washington, always have played that way.
Wait until 3 or 4 points are set then go for it with full odds.

Too bad the table was cold for her, she busted out.
15 minutes later another female shooter, who did not want to play but her husband convinced just one time let's try this, went out on her 40th roll.
too sweet.
Her and her hand.

FYI:
For those who have WinCraps, ME's 4BS auto-bet can be downloaded.
It looks to have 5X odds, but it is easy to adjust that or any other part of his auto-bet file.

4barrel.bet at the WinCraps website.

Quote: 7craps

($10 + 3/4/5x) sounds more like it.
Nice.

You're totally right -- I forgot that this started out as a $5 table and then the pit boss bumped the limit to $10 -- and *didn't* grandfather any of us in (I had opened the table at $5 about 2 hours before). Is that a new thing, forcing all players at the table to increase their line bets?

Also, I can't take credit for the auto-bet file. I'm pretty sure Steen did that himself as a result of my r.g.c. post, however many years ago that was.

for those of us jargon-challenged, I looked up 'PSO' and it seems to abbreviate 'point-seven-out', meaning to roll the 7-out right after establishing a point, a two-roll hand.

Quote: MathExtremist

The best part is that a PSO is a wash

If you don't fail to make a come bet right after the point is made, you mean?

I just found this gem thread! Any updates regarding "strategies" against the PSO?