dwm
dwm
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October 23rd, 2011 at 10:56:58 AM permalink
Concentrate on the Pass-Odds bet, especially the Odds bet which is the best bet in the casino. Impossible to win with the typical place bets, forget about it as the Ugly is just too powerfull for multiple bets whether place betting or come betting.

My VERY simple betting scheme goes like this: $5 pass then only single odds to start every point sequence. IF an inside number is rolled after the point is established, then odds bet goes to $30 odds bet until resolution of the point. Then start anew on the next point sequence. $500 session bankroll.

Too many PSO's after the point is established, this betting scheme helps, and has surprisingly good overall results over many sessions just with the ole boring Pass-Odds bet.
DrEntropy
DrEntropy
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October 23rd, 2011 at 2:00:27 PM permalink
Quote: dwm

Concentrate on the Pass-Odds bet, especially the Odds bet which is the best bet in the casino.



I (still) agree, pass line (or don't pass) with odds is your "best bet" in the sense of getting the most variance for your house edge. I posted something about this on here some time ago (and so did you!): https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/6073-boring-strategy/
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
dwm
dwm
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October 23rd, 2011 at 2:07:04 PM permalink
Dr. E. : The big question too is how to play the odds bet., i.e. level odds bet, increasing on wins, increasing on losses, increasing on box numbers rolled, and on we go...Have tried many different schemes as to fluctuating the odds bet and some do work better than others, and the one I posted seems to work better than any other that I have played.

Of course, there may be something better out there, but increasing the odds bet in a one step process after one inside number is rolled after the point is established seems to work best for me.
FleaStiff
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October 23rd, 2011 at 3:04:42 PM permalink
Quote: dwm

Dr. E. : The big question too is how to play the odds bet., i.e. level odds bet, increasing on wins, increasing on losses, increasing on box numbers rolled, and on we go...
Of course, there may be something better out there, but increasing the odds bet in a one step process after one inside number is rolled after the point is established seems to work best for me.


I think this boils down to playing with "their" money or your own money. Intellectually we all accept that once you have put your money at risk and lost it, it is theirs. Conversely once you have put your money at risk and won then those winnings are your money, not the casinos.
Those who increase odds bets or who press place bets are either dipping into their bankroll or using "the casino's money" either way its increasing the risk. Increasing it on the odds bet seems to be better than the place bets, but increasing it means you could have made a higher odds bet to begin with.
So its really an expression of your "confidence" in the shooter or your hope that the shooter will not do some sort of Point-SevenOut repetitive routine.
The problem is that this "shooter establishes a point" or he "establishes a point and then makes his point" is not in any way evidence of what the next rolls will bring. So its risk allocation based on an irrelevant factor.
dwm
dwm
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October 23rd, 2011 at 5:12:48 PM permalink
Flea: I agree with your basic premise is that it should make no difference and should be irrelevant. BUT, I have done far worse with just level odds betting than using this shooter qualifier before making my big odds bet. Makes no sense to me either, but will stick with the inside qualifier based on my positive results thusfar, which could very well turn negative over a larger period of day sessions(20 day sessions completed to date).
FleaStiff
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October 23rd, 2011 at 5:45:34 PM permalink
Quote: dwm

Makes no sense to me either, but will stick with my positive results thus far

If it works, it works. Milk it for whatever you can.
easyeight
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October 31st, 2011 at 10:15:14 AM permalink
The pass odds bet sucked for me. Of course it was my first time seriously playing craps. Lost $200 in about 10 minutes. Only one point was made. The rest were quick 7 outs. Second time I played stuck to making only place bets and pressing my winnings. Won $500 after a long eight hour straight session...
ssjdra
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November 3rd, 2011 at 10:26:11 AM permalink
Quote: easyeight

The pass odds bet sucked for me. Of course it was my first time seriously playing craps. Lost $200 in about 10 minutes. Only one point was made. The rest were quick 7 outs. Second time I played stuck to making only place bets and pressing my winnings. Won $500 after a long eight hour straight session...



So your place bets would have won if there were a bunch of quick 7-outs? When you are betting for the shooter to win you will always lose a lot of money fast when there are a bunch of quick 7-outs. It makes no difference which type of bet you place.

If your betting with the shooter the best bet in the house is pass line with full odds. Sometimes it wins big sometimes it loses big. In the end you will lose a lot less money than any other bet you make.
dwm
dwm
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November 4th, 2011 at 10:16:13 AM permalink
UPDATE: Now playing the following enhanced final edition odds betting scheme. It was won 6 day sessions in a row, session wins have been in the $100 to $200 range. Simple and concentrating on the best bet in the house, the odds bet..

Start the session with $5 pass then $30 odds. If lose on two consecutive shooters, then on the next shooter odds bet goes to $35 and start a negative progression meaning up one $5 unit on every consecutive losing shooter up to max odds of $60. On any odds win, return to the base $30 odds and start anew. If get up to the $60 odds(rare), and if again lose, return to $30 odds and start anew, do not go beyond $60 odds which is double the $30 base odds bet. $700 session bankroll. This has been winning relatively easy thusfar, the end for now, any questions let me know..
teddys
teddys
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November 4th, 2011 at 10:23:51 AM permalink
Ugh. I do the same thing, but with a positive progression. Start with $5 pass and $5 odds. On each point made, press to $10, then $15, $25, etc. in a Fibonacci sequence. Lost about 6 sessions in a row, all in the $100-$200 range. :(
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
FrGamble
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November 4th, 2011 at 10:34:04 AM permalink
Quote: dwm


Start the session with $5 pass then $30 odds. If lose on two consecutive shooters, then on the next shooter odds bet goes to $35 and start a negative progression meaning up one $5 unit on every consecutive losing shooter up to max odds of $60. On any odds win, return to the base $30 odds and start anew. If get up to the $60 odds(rare), and if again lose, return to $30 odds and start anew, do not go beyond $60 odds which is double the $30 base odds bet. $700 session bankroll. This has been winning relatively easy thus far, the end for now, any questions let me know..



Hark, I think I hear a Martingale. However as Flea put it so clearly any craps progression is really based on something that is not completely reasonable. So if it works and is fun go for it.

I have been trying something ME introduced me to in a post called the four barrel shotgun. You make PL bet with no odds and then a series of come bets until you have a total of four numbers covered and then you crank on the odds to all of your bets, maybe starting with 2x odds and eventually full odds. This really protects you from the PSO but the seven coming out after you've loaded the shotgun really hurts. As does seeing the six and eight repeatedly with no odds on them. Anyway it is fun and is working out as a wash mostly right now for me. There is probably more nuances than I know about.
BrockPhx
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November 5th, 2011 at 6:58:36 AM permalink
Sounds similar to the golden pass 5 count system. Eliminates somewhere around 50% of cappy shooters. Still exposed to the shooter who 7s right after you up your odds but also exposes you to the shooter who goes on long roll
FleaStiff
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November 5th, 2011 at 8:25:16 AM permalink
Quote: BrockPhx

Sounds similar to the golden pass 5 count system. Eliminates somewhere around 50% of crappy shooters. Still exposed to the shooter who 7s right after you up your odds but also exposes you to the shooter who goes on long roll


>This really protects you from the PSO but the seven coming out after you've loaded the shotgun really hurts.

Reminds me of the woman who just estimated the "size" of the shooter and bet accordingly.

If she walks away from the table with several grand we might all say she was good as estimating the length of the shooter's penis, but none of us would claim she was good at communicating this information to the dice or persuading the dice to abide by her data. We accept certain "systems" as being "reasonable" because it suits our emotions and intellect at the time to do so.

There can be any number of ways to derive a system to only be wagering money on "good shooters" but they all boil down to a technique to stay either entirely off the table or to lower our involvement for a while, then we get back onto the table when our system advises us to do and to crank up the amount of our bets.

If its a reasonable system and we like it, we might give it a cutesy name, but we are not going to forget thats its just happenstance.
BrockPhx
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November 6th, 2011 at 7:11:07 AM permalink
Do you think you are posting some ground breaking news that betting systems don't work? You come off ass a huge jerk, but I'm sure you posting something what you think is witty makes you feel better.
teddys
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November 6th, 2011 at 10:32:11 AM permalink
I thought it was pretty funny.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
dwm
dwm
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November 7th, 2011 at 12:11:07 PM permalink
Having good results with this simple scheme: $5 passline then $50 odds if the point is 6,8; $40 odds if the point is 5,9; $30 odds if the point is 4,10. So any point hit is $65 total payout. Based on the common Vegas 5x,4x,3x odds but doubling it to 10x, 8x, 6x.

Very minimal HA, and with any luck and a good-sized session bankroll to handle the swings, should be in a positive range at some point during most sessions.

Latest session is typical: Was in a +$400 to -$400 range in a 7 hr session and quit +$240 with about an equal time in positive range vs negative range. So about a $800 session bankroll seems high but probably necessary for maximum chance of a winning session.
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