Did some number crunching..WOW! 7 points in a row makes BIG money!

I just did some number crunching...
Now, I've saw NUMEROUS people make 7 points in a row (even saw someone make 9 points)
If you started with $5 with 3/4/5, and doubled it with every sucessive point made..after 7 points, you'd be ahead $4500!
That's absolutely ASTOUNDING!
Hell, someone shooting 5 points is a VERY common thing (From what I've seen) and even then, you'd make $1100!
I don't know why..but I've never pressed my line bets, but I've pressed the SHIT out of my place bets...stupid me!

Quote: TIMSPEED

I just did some number crunching...
I don't know why..but I've never pressed my line bets, but I've pressed the SHIT out of my place bets...stupid me!

The power of exponential growth. The question is when do you take your winnings?

The odds of a shooter throwing a dice 28 times in a row are 1 in 45, which are similar to the 1 in 47 probability of being dealt a 3 of a kind in poker. Throwing a dice 28 times in a row will usually get 7 to 9 points.

Grandmother who threw the dice 154 times in a row at Borgata in Atlantic City.

Just add a $5 fire bet to that and you'd win $5000.00 more

Quote: TIMSPEED

someone shooting 5 points is a VERY common thing

Er, no it's not.

More than 50% of points established will not be made. Now THAT is a very common thing.
Relatively speaking, 5 points in a row is a rare thing indeed.

Quote: TIMSPEED

If you started with $5 with 3/4/5, and doubled it with every successive point made..after 7 points, you'd be ahead $4500! ... That's absolutely ASTOUNDING!!

Well, turning five dollars into forty-five hundred dollars would be very pleasant but I don't know about astounding. It would certainly cover your airfare and hotel room though!

If you are pressing place bets (a very commonly employed strategy) you are "paying" each time you do it. A place bet being nothing more than a passline bet wherein you rather than the dice have chosen the number. In offering you lower payout odds on the place bet, the house is charging you for that choice. And they charge you each time you press it.

So I can see how it would be better to press your Line bet than the Place bet.

Quote: algle

Er, no it's not.

More than 50% of points established will not be made. Now THAT is a very common thing.
Relatively speaking, 5 points in a row is a rare thing indeed.

I also have to agree that someone shooting 5 points or more in a row is NOT a very common thing.

I wonder why you came up with it being so. You must have witnessed a rare streak of point wins. Last week I hit 8 point winners 1 time and did not see 5 in a row for 2 more days. Yuck.

=201/495 or
0.406060606 is the probability of a shooter hitting any point at any time.

So, 294/495 or 0.593939394 is the probability of a shooter NOT hitting any point at any time.
~60/40 in favor of No points made.

But it could happen, not as often as you think it does.

Say 30 pass line bets per hour and 20 points established per hour one has a 10.674169% of a run of 5 or longer point wins in 1 hour.
in 4 hours - easy to play - (80 points established) 40.625103% chance of at least 1 run of 5 or longer point wins.
~9.1% chance of at least 2 runs of 5 or longer point wins.
~1.46% chance of at least 3 runs of 5 or longer point wins.

Maybe you saw the above rare distribution. I would not bet that would happen very often.

I'm not following the math; probably my deficiency. Assuming, for ease of presentation, that all your points were sixes and eights (it wouldn't really matter at the table), then your first bet would be 5 on pass and 25 odds, so a win would give you 65. What's your second bet?

I was told that the odds of making your pass line bet after the come out roll is only 60%. Maybe one of the math Gurus on this site can shed some light on that number.

Quote: MrRalph

I was told that the odds of making your pass line bet after the come out roll is only 60%. Maybe one of the math Gurus on this site can shed some light on that number.

this has been answered in this thread
Average Number of Points Hit Per Shooter in Craps

Ralph: The math of making the pass-POINT is about 40%, I wish it was 60% as we would all be wealthy with 20x odds factored in.

Quote: MrRalph

I was told that the odds of making your pass line bet after the come out roll is only 60%. Maybe one of the math Gurus on this site can shed some light on that number.

Whoever 'told' you that knows nothing about odds. Try not to speak with that person again.
There are 3 types of points possible.
A. 4 or 10
B. 5 or 9
C. 6 or 8
You will make a 4 or a 10 3 out of 36 a 7 6 out of 36
So either point 4 or 10 is 33.33%
Without showing you the math---
Point 5 or 9 is 40%
Point 6 or 8 is 45.45%

4 or 10 is the point 25% of the time
5 or 9 is the point 33.33% of the time
6 or 8 is the point 41.67% of the time So....

25 x 33.33= 8.33%
33.33 x 40 = 13.33%
41.67 x 45.45 = 18.94%
Add em up= 40.6% (not exact due to rounding)
So... you will make a point 40.6% of the time.
Maybe your friend said the odds of NOT making the bet...