Guarantee big win or let fate decide?
Poll
 | 4 votes (66.66%) | ||
| | 2 votes (33.33%) |
6 members have voted
May 20th, 2011 at 3:53:55 PM
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Background: Where I play Craps they will pay the shooter 4k if all 6 unique points are made (no special bet required, just a pass line bet). I have been at the table a few times when a player gets to 5 and the subject amongst the crowd always comes up if the shooter should lay the final point to guarantee a big win. I would probably lay a few thousand but I would leave my other place bets going. What would you do?
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
May 20th, 2011 at 4:48:10 PM
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If you were shooting the dice and minding your own business and someone said "I'll give you $1000 if the next roll is a non-Field roll", assuming he was truthful (which the casino is, in this case), wouldn't you put $500 on the Field?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
May 20th, 2011 at 5:09:43 PM
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Quote: MathExtremistIf you were shooting the dice and minding your own business and someone said "I'll give you $1000 if the next roll is a non-Field roll", assuming he was truthful (which the casino is, in this case), wouldn't you put $500 on the Field?
ME- since the odds of a 'non field roll' is 20/36, the person is giving you the equivalent of $555. Since my 'life bankroll' is many times that figure, I do not think I would bet $1000 on the field, a significant negative EV bet, depending on if it is a 3-1 or 2-1 on 12. I think the Wiz has a 'don't hedge your bets' rule, which in this case I would abide by.
May 20th, 2011 at 7:55:27 PM
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I would not hedge or even have thought about doing it. I'd either win or lose. I'd not hedge or quibble or slightly win/slightly lose.
May 20th, 2011 at 8:09:06 PM
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I might stick a couple of Green chips out there. A little hedge. More like a shrub.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
May 21st, 2011 at 8:57:58 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOME- since the odds of a 'non field roll' is 20/36, the person is giving you the equivalent of $555. Since my 'life bankroll' is many times that figure, I do not think I would bet $1000 on the field, a significant negative EV bet, depending on if it is a 3-1 or 2-1 on 12. I think the Wiz has a 'don't hedge your bets' rule, which in this case I would abide by.
Normally I'd agree, but this wasn't my bet, it was someone else's gift. I don't have a problem taking a collar on a +EV situation, even if it cost a little to do so.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
