Has anyone ever seen a real study on dice control?

I Have shot craps for years and think dice control/dice influence/dice setting is 100% total BS! But there seems to be a lot of people who buy into the $300 videos and the $1000 seminars. AND IM AM SURE THIS HAS BEEN DEBATED ON HERE BEFORE LOL!

My question is has anyone ever seen a study that proves or disproves dice control? Or any kind of evidence one way or another. and I dont mean "ya I saw this guy who was a dice setter once and I bet with him and won a bunch of money" evidence.

Yeah, it's been discussed - to death - here before.

Bottom line, at best, it's inconclusive.

But the case could be made, equally for both sides of the argument that it's inconclusive.

BS is correct ! Any so called test or trial is not valid unless a magician is present. Slight of hand beats dice setting
everytime. Gee, I can beat the casinos to death by betting at 100 times odds or teach somebody if I get barred
and split their action, or sell it to a stranger for a few hundred dollars. LOL Just a tout of a different color !

Ain't seen no study, but Persi Diaconis, of Stanford, I believe, made reference to one he appears to have conducted but not necessarily published concerning prediction of a die tumbling against frets and bouncing. I believe his lunch-time lecture comment was discouraging for the get rich quick seminar sellers.

I certainly have never seen any such study or anything more than anecdotal evidence. As far as I know, the only unbiased tests are my own, discussed here.

For years I've held out the invitation to the dice coaches to show me their records, but nobody has ever accepted.

Quote: vert1276

I Have shot craps for years and think dice control/dice influence/dice setting is 100% total BS! But there seems to be a lot of people who buy into the $300 videos and the $1000 seminars. AND IM AM SURE THIS HAS BEEN DEBATED ON HERE BEFORE LOL!

My question is has anyone ever seen a study that proves or disproves dice control? Or any kind of evidence one way or another. and I dont mean "ya I saw this guy who was a dice setter once and I bet with him and won a bunch of money" evidence.

The Wizard did some investigating here. Nothing exhaustive, but postively pointing toward the possibility of DI.

Edit: slow typing. However, Wizard, would you agree that the Stanford Wong Experiment shows a need for further study?

Quote: Wizard

I certainly have never seen any such study or anything more than anecdotal evidence. As far as I know, the only unbiased tests are my own, discussed here.

I have followed this with interest before, and do come back to it. I learned to set dice from your site, to at least be setting them correctly for what I am trying to do in theory. Saved a bundle, thanks!!! [g]

I'll admit that your number crunching showing that if a shooter can improve on random rolls by a "skill factor of one percent" that it would produce player advantage eats at me in the sections of the brain a little further down from the logic centers. When such visits the logic centers it then says "nah". The one does combat with the other.

edit: added link

Quote: Wizard

I certainly have never seen any such study or anything more than anecdotal evidence. As far as I know, the only unbiased tests are my own, discussed here.

For years I've held out the invitation to the dice coaches to show me their records, but nobody has ever accepted.

Ya the thing that upsets my about it is...It really seems there is no way to prove or disprove something in a game like craps with a high variance. You could have two shooters make 1 million rolls each. One being a dice setter and one not. And if there was a 1% variance between them they would claim its because of dice control. But if you had 2 shooter who were not dice setter make 1 million rolls a piece there would still probably be a 1% or more variance between them and it had nothing to do with dice setting.

Here's the scam IMO, When a dice setter has a losing session he says "if I wasn't a dice setter the negative variance would have even been more, and I would have lost even more money" and when he has a winning session he says "see, dice setting works". Its a no lose scenario in his own mind.

Quote: Ayecarumba

However, Wizard, would you agree that the Stanford Wong Experiment shows a need for further study?

Yes. However, he seems to like the topic to be subject to debate. If there were a strong consensus that it works then it would attract more dice setters and more heat. He probably believes that there is some optimal point between belief and doubt that sells the most books and earns the most at the tables.

Through the years I've had several people writing to me anonymously, thanking me for my skepticism, because it lowers heat at the tables, enabling the setters to make more money. Then again, I get quacks writing to me all the time about their winning betting systems.

On the whole, it seems there is a lot less chatter on this topic. I'd be interested to thoughts why.

Also, you setters should seriously consider betting the hard ways (equivalent to a hard hop bet in craps) at 34 to 1 on Scossa. If dice setting were for real there would be much greater profit potential in that game than conventional craps. It is also played on a tub-sized table.

There is less chatter because Wong is running out of suckers. There's no heat for losers, and the paranoia about counters at BJ has not flowed over to the crap tables. Because setters lose more than they win !

Quote: Wizard

Yes. However, he seems to like the topic to be subject to debate. If there were a strong consensus that it works then it would attract more dice setters and more heat. He probably believes that there is some optimal point between belief and doubt that sells the most books and earns the most at the tables.

That's odd. one of the reaons I think dice control is hokum is that most casinos don't care if you set dice. But if it's real and skepticism helps to keep casinos from caring, then the Ouroboros is getting tangled :)

Quote:

Also, you setters should seriously consider betting the hard ways (equivalent to a hard hop bet in craps) at 34 to 1 on Scossa. If dice setting were for real there would be much greater profit potential in that game than conventional craps.

Would that be better or worse than betting the Fire Bet for $5? If you can keep the seven away for prolonged periods, you ought to make hit lots of Fire Bet payments, yes?

Quote: Nareed

Would that be better or worse than betting the Fire Bet for $5? If you can keep the seven away for prolonged periods, you ought to make hit lots of Fire Bet payments, yes?

perhaps, but in craps the hard ways HE is about 9%, and goes down to 2.78% in Scossa ... without looking it up, I think fire bets are around 5% HE. So methinks the WoO sees the Scossa bets clippable should one be able to make theoretical influence a reality at all. Fire bets have a ways to go.

Quote: Wizard

Also, you setters should seriously consider betting the hard ways (equivalent to a hard hop bet in craps) at 34 to 1 on Scossa. If dice setting were for real there would be much greater profit potential in that game than conventional craps. It is also played on a tub-sized table.

This leads to a good question that wasn't touched on in your analysis. When do the dice pass? Does each shooter get only one roll? Three? Or does a 7 pass them? (Surely not, as it would mess with the Triple 7 mojo...)

Quote: odiousgambit

perhaps, but in craps the hard ways HE is about 9%, and goes down to 2.78% in Scossa ... without looking it up, I think fire bets are around 5% HE. So methinks the WoO sees the Scossa bets clippable should one be able to make theoretical influence a reality at all. Fire bets have a ways to go.

I don't dispute your facts. But the claims made by most dice control peddlers is that they can keep from shooting 7, not that they can hit specific numbers. Therefore hitting 4-4 in one roll would seem a chancy proposition, while making four to six points per shooting session seems more likely.

Of course, if a dice controller can hit a hard way once every 25 shots, then Scossa would be the game to try.

Quote: Nareed

I don't dispute your facts. But the claims made by most dice control peddlers is that they can keep from shooting 7, not that they can hit specific numbers. Therefore hitting 4-4 in one roll would seem a chancy proposition, while making four to six points per shooting session seems more likely.

Of course, if a dice controller can hit a hard way once every 25 shots, then Scossa would be the game to try.

I think it also has to do with the idea that if you are keeping the dice on axis, Hard Ways are more likely to come up than just "not a 7" is to coming up, when payouts are indexed.

Quote: vert1276

I Have shot craps for years and think dice control/dice influence/dice setting is 100% total BS! But there seems to be a lot of people who buy into the $300 videos and the $1000 seminars. AND IM AM SURE THIS HAS BEEN DEBATED ON HERE BEFORE LOL!

My question is has anyone ever seen a study that proves or disproves dice control? Or any kind of evidence one way or another. and I dont mean "ya I saw this guy who was a dice setter once and I bet with him and won a bunch of money" evidence.

Dice control can and does work, but only in non-professional (e.g. casino dice table) conditions. Look up "whip shot" or "Greek shot", "sliding", and "blanket roll". All of those are known, functional dice de-randomization techniques which are reasonably easy to perform on, say, a pool table or a blanket. In a casino, however, they enforce the rules that the dice must hit the back wall, and in many cases, must bounce off the back wall. I am unaware of any technique for controlling the dice which is successful under those restrictions.

Note that the rubber "pyramid" bumpers and, in some casinos, the lumps at either end of the prop box are there precisely because techniques like sliding or the whip shot would otherwise be effective.

Even if you find a perfect table somewhere and a boxman who is sound asleep, deaf and blind... is it worth all the practice sessions you have to go through? And despite that deaf and blind boxman, how long do you think he will remain asleep and the casino's computers won't start issuing an exception report about that dice table thats spewing money? How long are the other players not going to notice this one shooter keeps making money and start mimicking him? How long before the crew starts noticing and the surveillance people wake up?

you take the money you "earn" and divide by the total number of hours you practiced and the total expenditure for all those useless seminars ... and you ain't gonna come up as much as those yellow-shirted porn slappers make in a day.

Quote: FleaStiff

you take the money you "earn" and divide by the total number of hours you practiced and the total expenditure for all those useless seminars ... and you ain't gonna come up as much as those yellow-shirted porn slappers make in a day.

That's not entirely fair. Many, many activities done by Americans in their free time don't bear the fruit of money or anything tangible. But if you enjoy the challenge and are having fun, I don't see any reason why playing around with dice is any more "wasted time" than doing a crossword puzzle or buying a new pitching wedge.

Quote: cclub79

That's not entirely fair. Many, many activities done by Americans in their free time don't bear the fruit of money or anything tangible. But if you enjoy the challenge and are having fun, I don't see any reason why playing around with dice is any more "wasted time" than doing a crossword puzzle or buying a new pitching wedge.

Not entirely sure what a pitching wedge is, but sounds likes its cricket or something or horseshoes?

No, I'm not trying to say that if you've done this dice setting as a hobby its "wrong" because you "should" be playing golf or something. I'm only addressing the issue of those who do this as a "get rich scheme". If you are in this dice control quest for its income potential, I don't see the income potential as being there at all.

If its just a hobby... well, it might even make more sense than golf does. I don't really think either one makes sense to me but I sure know alot of people do play golf so it must offer them some fun.

I recall Persi Diaconis had slightly out of true dice made to precision standards, it gave him such a slight edge that his graduate students error rate was greater than his crook-dice edge. yet it seems this dice control "edge" that is claimed to exist would yield just about the same profit. An edge that was dwarfed by the error rate of bored graduate students.

I have witnessed dice control for you non-beleivers.

I was in a strip joint in Vancouver, Canada. Her name was Lucky mitzey and.................

Quote: FleaStiff

Not entirely sure what a pitching wedge is, but sounds likes its cricket or something or horseshoes?

A golf club -- similar to a niblick, but with more loft.

Quote: Wizard

On the whole, it seems there is a lot less chatter on this topic. I'd be interested to thoughts why.

Also, you setters should seriously consider betting the hard ways (equivalent to a hard hop bet in craps) at 34 to 1 on Scossa. If dice setting were for real there would be much greater profit potential in that game than conventional craps. It is also played on a tub-sized table.

I think we covered the topic pretty extensively in previous threads. This might be a good activity for WoVCon. Perhaps not shooting yourselves, but observing those who do, simultaneously at different tables, then comparing data after a certain number of rolls, or specific amount of time has passed. You will have no problem finding shooters who "set" and those who don't.

As for Scossa, I would like to give it a try. I suspect a low max bet ($5 - $100?) will be in place... just in case.

For those who believe that all casinos allow setting... that is just not true. I have been in many joints where players have been warned that it is not allowed. I think it could be more from a game speed standpoint than worry about de-randomizing throws. However, I have on occassion, received significant heat during my shoots at some joints, with pit bosses even coming on my side of the rail to get in my personal space, and even trying to break my concentration by slamming things on the table during my shooting motion. Sheesh.

There is this:
http://www.amazon.com/Scientific-Study-Dice-Control-Rolling/dp/1419656562

The author constructs a dice tossing 'arm' and uses it to investigate dice control. However, in the end, he doesn't seem to understand statistics, and doesn't repeat the experiment an significant number of times. He does only 400 rolls or so per test, according to one review on amazon.

DrEntropy,.. I have read the book you are writing about , it is far from scientific!

Quote:

There is this:
http://www.amazon.com/Scientific-Study-Dice-Control-Rolling/dp/1419656562

The author constructs a dice tossing 'arm' and uses it to investigate dice control. However, in the end, he doesn't seem to understand statistics, and doesn't repeat the experiment an significant number of times. He does only 400 rolls or so per test, according to one review on amazon.

That book was written by someone who had six month playing craps, so how scientific do you think the book is? He had a bunch of short stories about his trips to the lowest limit tables in Vegas with his $10 and $20 buy-in's. Most of the time his buy-in didn't last to long, playing on $1 to $3 dollar tables. The first review said it all, so I will not go there, you can read on the above link!

Nobody will ever prove that dice control works, because they never do a side by side analysis of a table full of dice controllers and a table full of the so-called random rollers. Everybody just gets lucky when we get on rolls. I've see where the DI's can't do anything right and the table that has nothing but random roller on it are cleaning up.

Here is a funny video if you want to see what the dice do when they hit the table.
http://goodshooter.com/ahigh/hardsix.mov

Aahigh has been trying to prove that he can control the dice, with all his videos, I give him credit for trying to do so, but his videos all show the dice bouncing all over the place. If that is control, what I was taught in school doesn't mean a thing. Just because the dice in up on a hardway doesn't prove a thing, when you are looking at a video that shows you how they ended up that way!
Take it for what its worth, I think one video, will tell you if someone is controlling the dice!

Quote: superrick

Here is a funny video if you want to see what the dice do when they hit the table.
http://goodshooter.com/ahigh/hardsix.mov

That's an extremely wild toss, for sure.

Quote: superrick

Aahigh has been trying to prove that he can control the dice, with all his videos, I give him credit for trying to do so, but his videos all show the dice bouncing all over the place.
If that is control, what I was taught in school doesn't mean a thing.

Yep.
Ahigh has already proven to himself and others he can control the dice roll outcomes.
He has witnesses in a real casino from other players and Dealers that he calls his shots and delivers.

He wants to be the greatest DI of all time, and I think he will succeed.

We should all be at the table betting only when he is the shooter.
The ultimate truth.


superrick, you can go back, any time,
to your universe and hang with guys like Tuttigym and Co.
Also, the Craps Forum is a warm and cozy place filled with traditional DIs.
(you know that, others may not)

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/972-the-hoax-that-is-the-1-41-house-advantage-on-pass-line-bets/41/#post24056

Quote: superrick

Tuttigym
Your pass-line bet is a sucker bet,
and I don’t care what all the math guys tell you!
You will hear them all say the same thing that at 1.41%.
It’s the best bet on the table!
What a joke, it’s an even money bet,
which is a contract bet,
and should only be made if the dice are in your hands!
You are then paying rent on the table, so you can shoot the dice!

Once the point is established, that 1.41% goes away, and you can’t take the bet down!
You will never be there for 10,000 rolls of the dice, and most players will never only bet the pass-line bet. If the pass-line bet is all you are betting, you should give up the game, and play monopoly at home! You are just wasting your time, unless you only object in life is to prove the 1.41% HA!

I don’t care what all the math guys tell you either!
Just not my type of comedy.
Make room in the boat

We really need to separate this discussion into two streams of thought:

1. Is dice influencing or dice control theoretically possible?

2. Can anyone influence the dice or control the dice so that there are confirmable results which prove anyone's true ability to influence the dice?

Here is how I would answer these two questions.

1. Yes, it's theoretically possible. If you train your muscles and arm movements so that your can control the throw with the right force, the right pitch, the right grip, the right axis, and hit the table right where you want it so the dice bounce off the right spot and gently roll on axis to a soft landing -- yes -- it's theoretically possible.

2. While we all have observed someone, somewhere, who has had some sort of session with some number of what appear to be "controlled throws" with positive results, I am yet to see, observe, or even hear about someone who can do it with such consistency that they can be called a true dice controller or dice influencer.

Look, years ago I was pretty "in" with the so-called "DI Crowd" and I can tell you that NO ONE was ever able to walk up to a craps table and consistenlty deliver enough "controlled throws" that scored enough points that would provide absolute proof of any mastering of the dice.

Now, the bottom line: Since everyone (but the dice influencers) agrees that dice is a random game, it doesn't hurt to try to influence the dice. It also doesn't hurt to pay someone to teach you what they know about what is theoretically needed to influence or control the dice. But I would not invest in a craps session -- in other words I wouldn't underwrite any "dice controllers" trip to a craps table -- in hopes of getting a payback on my investment in his skill.

Yeah, I do think it could be possible. I've seen enough in my own throws to think it might be possible.

If you focus on how the dice bounce after the initial hit, I will agree that it absolutely does not look possible.

I'm not focused on that right now myself as I think it's a bit of a red herring. But I understand for those who feel that it's proof that it's not possible. I might agree with you if there weren't other things that I know to contradict such a belief.

I had some situations where my beliefs changed along the way in my quest to debunk Harley Horn's biased dice theories.

Changing your own belief system as you follow along a journey like this is a major part of what makes this whole thing fun.

But for those who don't already know, I'm not a firm believer that controlling the dice is something that many people are able to accomplish.

To put things into perspective, I think it's more reasonable to consider that there's as many people doing it today as there were people making over 500,000 on Donkey Kong ten years ago.

A lot more people are doing that today after seeing the King of Kong. But it's been just as possible to do today as it was when the game came out 30 years ago.

It's possible, for example, that DI is possible and yet NOBODY has done it yet in spite of all the claims to have done it.

But I don't even care who has done it or not, I want to prove it possible and determine a good way to do it in the process.

And I absolutely also want to be known as the person who was first to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt with hard video evidence.

One final note: my first acknowledgement of what the computer is telling me is my current bias was that I was betting big huge come bets and rolling 12's into those come bets and getting spanked! 99.9% of all my play is at the casino not at home and I'm known for low-volatility play that involves increasing the size of my come bets and effectively betting against craps (and for the yo) instead of betting against sevens and repeated box number in between. There is a certain irony to the fact that if you have a bias on the dice, it is equally likely to hurt you as to help you until you quantify your bias over a large number of throws and learn to manage it properly.

Quote: AlanMendelson

...
1. Yes, it's theoretically possible. If you train your muscles and arm movements so that your can control the throw with the right force, the right pitch, the right grip, the right axis, and hit the table right where you want it so the dice bounce off the right spot and gently roll on axis to a soft landing -- yes -- it's theoretically possible.
...

Let's break DI down into the 2 major components, the throw, and the final at rest result. I would like to see someone be able to demonstrate that they can throw the dice consistently on axis, AND, land them on the same die face each and every time. This should be very easy to set up with today's high speed camera equipment.
Next would come the velocity and angle of touchdown measurements.
If we had someone step forward who could display this level of control, and it could be captured on high speed, then we would know if the first component of DI was possible. If no one can make it past the first part, it pretty much rules out the second part.

" And I absolutely also want to be known as the person who was first to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt with hard video evidence."

This is what happens when people do not take their meds as prescribed !

AlanMendelson and Aahigh and anybody else.

Now I have been on the same table with Aahigh, and yes he does throw some hard-ways, there in no doubt about that! The problem is that like everybody else, he also throws soft-ways! So when we are looking at someone rolling three hard-eights in one roll, sure that may happen. Just like Aahigh has shown in one of his videos. I think it was one time out of 1331 to hit the hard-eight three times in one roll with out hitting a soft eight, that he posted!

Did that prove anything, no! He just got lucky when he did it, not trying to take anything away from Aahigh, just trying to bring a little reality into the picture, I've seen what all the DI's call random rollers do the same thing many times. I've also seen some shooters that are not DI's roll hard-ways every time they come to the tables, they are not setting the dice, they are just getting lucky, but yet,..every time they shoot they roll hard-ways.

That is one of the benefits of tracking all the shooters on every table you play on. You can weed out all the superstitions that everybody has about playing craps. When you come right down to it you will see more larger rolls from the so-called random rolls then you will see from the so-called DI's. For all you math guys out there , you should be able to understand the reason I made that statement. The so-called random rollers out number the DI's thousands or ten of thousands to one!

For anybody out there that plays the game of craps all the time;.. think back at how many hard-eights you might have thrown in one roll. I have had some very strange rolls happen to me, like throwing five back to back hard-eights, or five twelves on a come out roll. Did either one of those rolls prove anything,..No! I can't do that every time that I go to the tables. It may never happen again as long as I'm playing craps. I just got lucky, or unlucky on the come out roll with the twelves, depending on if I was betting the twelves and at that time and by the way when that happened, I wasn't betting them, so I guess I was unlucky .

There is a reference in the above thread about the book The Scientific Study of Dice Control, which I just got done reading a few days ago, the author made a dice launcher to try to prove that dice control worked, all he did was show that it didn't when you look at his results. Now the reason I'm making that statement is because his dice were different just about every time he launched them with a mechanical launcher.

You have to look at all the things that happen on a craps table when anybody is shooting, there is no way that a DI can stand at the table and repeat the same numbers with every throw of the dice. You have late bets, chips in the way players sticking their arms in as you are shooting, and my list goes on and on.

DI's do not win every time we go to the tables, notice that I say we, because I'm called a DI, yes I have some great hands, but I also play more then the so-called random rollers. Yes I do repeat number, but I can't do a certain point at will. Anybody that knows me, will bet the 4's and 10's when I'm shooting, because I make a lot of them, but there are many days that I will never hit them, and I could have the best looking shot that I ever made and it will be a seven out!

Casinos hassle me all the time when I'm shooting because I set the dice, they and everybody else only look at a so-called DI when they are winning, they never look at them when they are losing. So in fact the casinos have turned someone setting the dice into a superstion. We all remember the bad things that happen to us and some times a few of the good things that happen if we have a bet on the horn, what's that saying,.. see a horn bet a horn!
Now it's very strange that you have someone they call a DI saying that you can't prove that you can control the dice, I know some of the best shooters in the country, and I've seen them have some great rolls, unfortunately I've seen the bad hands too! Without smart betting, and knowing when to walk away from the tables, even the best of the best will lose playing craps, sad but true!

You only have to read some of the trip reports, when you have a bunch of so-called DI's take over a table to see that you would have a hard time convincing the dealers or suits that it works, when they are all losing. Now for you guys that want to go out there and dig up a trip report, where the DI's won money because someone in the group got lucky after 11 hours of play and hit a five point fire bet. I have one question for you guys; what happened to all your buddy's that ran out of money before the 11 miracle roll happened? If you took two tables side by side, would you have seen better rolls on the so-called random rollers table, or even a six point fire bet hitting?

Now I totally believe just like AlanMendelson does when he made this statement:

Quote:

Now, the bottom line: Since everyone (but the dice influencers) agrees that dice is a random game, it doesn't hurt to try to influence the dice. It also doesn't hurt to pay someone to teach you what they know about what is theoretically needed to influence or control the dice. But I would not invest in a craps session -- in other words I wouldn't underwrite any "dice controllers" trip to a craps table -- in hopes of getting a payback on my investment in his skill.

If you are going to play craps all the time you should take a class, that not only shows you how to shoot, but also shows you how to bet the game, and shows you when to walk away from the table.

I don't want to take anything away from Aahigh, and I think that he is doing a good job of trying to prove that there is such a thing as being a DI, but look guys,... just look at some of his videos, and you make up your own mind, when you see the dice bouncing around all over the place. Once the dice hit the table there are still random I don't care where you land your dice or where they hit the diamonds.

I would love to see someone come into a real casino with someone trying to prove that they are a DI, with a full table of other players on the table, and everybody just passing the dice back to that shooter, lets call it a private table, that all agreed to pass the dice back to our DI, wouldn't that be interesting?
Then at the same time a camera crew set up at the table right next to it with anybody that was a random roller playing on. Even if the random rollers won, it still wouldn't prove a thing, because it was only a short window into what happens on the casinos craps tables everyday!

The casinos have nothing to worry about, when it comes to the DI's, and should welcome them to their tables. They are just like anybody else, they win and lose when playing.
Take a class;... yes there is nothing wrong with doing so and it might save you some money in the long run. Just don't think that you are going to win every time you hit the casinos, that won't happen!

Quote: superrick

If you are going to play craps all the time you should take a class, that not only shows you how to shoot, but also shows you how to bet the game, and shows you when to walk away from the table.

IMO, your paragraph reads better this way

"only also you away you when shows from but and class, all shows you how table.
If walk craps shoot, bet you to not the should to play the the going a to time shows are to that game, how take you"

Quote: superrick

If you are going to play craps all the time you should take a class,

These words are just crap in the order you have them.
should?

take a class taught by who or what and for how much $$?
Tuttigym or better known as Falcon??

take a class taught by
The Wizard has free Craps videos.
Can a video be a class?? Dan the Dealer?

take a class taught by
Alan Shank?
Whom?

take a class taught by
Super Rick!
Only $399 per session.
I got it!

Quote: superrick

that not only shows you how to shoot,

by who or what and for how much $$?
I want to shoot like the 154 roll Grandma, chicken feeder.
Even if I only come close to 154 rolls per hand, would be way better than any DI.

Quote: superrick

but also shows you how to bet the game,

by who or what and for how much $$?
You mean "the game of Craps" or the Bets available in Craps
The right side bets or the wrong side bets?

Quote: superrick

and shows you when to walk away from the table.

Yo!
When you are always UP? or always down X$s

take a class taught by
Super Rick!
Only $399 $299 per session.
I got it!

Rick, I don't think you know enough about me or my ability to shoot the dice to make any claims about whether what you saw was "just" luck based on how the dice are bouncing.

Luck is involved in every single thing at the craps table. But saying that the only explanation for what I can do is "just" luck is very much non-supportive of what I'm trying to do.

And along those lines, Rick, I absolutely do not consider you to be a better shooter than me until I know more about you than I know right now.

You are a very unusual character, and plenty of people know you, and you've been around doing this longer than I have been doing this. But I really feel like you're trying to sort of minimize what I'm trying to do as sort of ineffectual and at the same time take a position of authority on the subject.

If you are the authority, then please continue and show me videos of your shots that are better than mine.

As far as I know, Koga and I are the only people anywhere showing slow motion of what the dice do after the initial touch down on the felt.

I would hope and imagine that you're a better shot than Koga, but I have absolutely no information that either one of you can shoot any better than me no matter what kind of criticisms you have about my shot.

It's entirely possible that my shot is better than your shot, and you just simply don't understand how I am able to accomplish what I am accomplishing.

But I don't appreciate you saying you've seen me shoot and what you saw on video was just luck. You absolutely do not understand everything that I understand about the game. It's entirely possible that you've touched on something that I know that you don't. Maybe keep an open mind that you don't know everything?

If someone really could "control" the dice luck would not be a factor. Frank Scoblete just put out a new article about luck being a factor -- and that just flies in the face of what "dice control" is supposed to be all about.

With dice control either you control the dice or you don't. Luck is not an issue. Either you can do what you say or you don't.

The definition of "dice control" and "dice influencing" has always been specific and that is a combination of the dice softly tossed to a pre-determined point on the table, a gentle bounce and roll to the back wall, a gentle bounce or drop off the back wall, with the dice remaining on axis during the entire trip from the moment they leave the shooter's fingertips.

If your dice are not doing that you don't have a controlled throw, unless of course you are rewriting the definition of dice control. And if you are rewriting the definition of dice control, please make sure everyone in the "dice control camp" has signed off on this because they will have to rewite their books and change their lesson plans.

I am among the world's greatest dice setters. I am able to lose my money in any casino in the world. This is a special club that has denied ahigh membership until now !

Quote: AlanMendelson

If someone really could "control" the dice luck would not be a factor. Frank Scoblete just put out a new article about luck being a factor -- and that just flies in the face of what "dice control" is supposed to be all about.

With dice control either you control the dice or you don't. Luck is not an issue. Either you can do what you say or you don't.

The definition of "dice control" and "dice influencing" has always been specific and that is a combination of the dice softly tossed to a pre-determined point on the table, a gentle bounce and roll to the back wall, a gentle bounce or drop off the back wall, with the dice remaining on axis during the entire trip from the moment they leave the shooter's fingertips.

If your dice are not doing that you don't have a controlled throw, unless of course you are rewriting the definition of dice control. And if you are rewriting the definition of dice control, please make sure everyone in the "dice control camp" has signed off on this because they will have to rewite their books and change their lesson plans.

Alan,

Really? That's how you see it. Well, that helps explain a lot. If you think that dice control completely removes the luck factor, you are way off base in your thinking. That explains a lot of your previous posts actually if that's how you're approaching this.

Even casinos are subject to lucky players taking money from them. So they have the luck factor biting into their revenue too. You do know that having an edge doesn't mean you are not subject to being unlucky, or do you not understand that?

There are many gambling games where luck is a percentage of what determines the outcome and skill is another percentage.

The only thing that is being debated here is whether or not a shooter can gain an edge on the casino.

Luck is WAY easier and requires far fewer events (even REWARDS having fewer events).

Using an edge still requires a grind behind it to profit, whether you're the house or a player who has your own edge against the casino.

Let me know if you need help understanding any of this and I can explain it better. *sigh*

" If you think that dice control completely removes the luck factor, you are way off base in your thinking. "

I must agree with ahigh on this. When I win , it is due to my superior dice setting skills. When I lose, it is due to bad luck !

Ahigh, You have to get your story straight ... and your claims.

Dice control is supposed to be a skill. Either you have the skill or you don't.

There are lucky players, but luck is not a skill. Luck comes into play when you don't have a skill. Skills eliminate the need for luck.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh, You have to get your story straight ... and your claims.

Dice control is supposed to be a skill. Either you have the skill or you don't.

There are lucky players, but luck is not a skill. Luck comes into play when you don't have a skill. Skills eliminate the need for luck.

Not true at all.

A skilled poker player is still going to have to have "good luck" when he's drawing to his flush with 10:1 pot odds. The talented sports handicapper still needs his team to beat the spread, even if he gives it a 75% chance of doing so. Skill does not completely eliminate luck in the world of gambling. Same with dice "influencing" or "control".

Plus it doesn't matter if dice control means a gentle lob and settle and axis, or whatever. IF you can prove (ten million dollar there) that you can make a certain number come up much more than chance, then you are influencing the dice. The soft lob/roll/on-axis stuff is just the means some people are trying to use, not the ends. If someone found that having a rapid spin of the dice, clattering all over the table resulted in more double-sixes than expected (with statistical proof) that would be dice influencing as well, and would not invalidate the 'experts' books (*). Just a different technique.

(*) - I'm not saying the expert's books are valid, though. Lots of snake oil salesmen in that industry.

Quote: Ahigh

Even casinos are subject to lucky players taking money from them. So they have the luck factor biting into their revenue too. You do know that having an edge doesn't mean you are not subject to being unlucky, or do you not understand that?

That is so. But having an edge, the casino wins in the long run. And also in the long run the odd lucky players matter very little.

Luck would amtter more to an AP, though, simply because there is only so much a player or team of players can play. A casino has several craps tables, operating an average number of hours a day. A single AP can't get to that wholesale level. A team does better than one person, but not as well as a casino. Therefore an unlucky streak takes a more significant toll.

This should be obivous. Shoulnd't it?

Quote: AlanMendelson

With dice control either you control the dice or you don't. Luck is not an issue. Either you can do what you say or you don't.

The definition of "dice control" and "dice influencing" has always been specific and that is a combination of the dice softly tossed to a pre-determined point on the table, a gentle bounce and roll to the back wall, a gentle bounce or drop off the back wall, with the dice remaining on axis during the entire trip from the moment they leave the shooter's fingertips.

You're just making that up. To "influence" the dice simply means to alter the probability distribution of one or both dice such that at least one die face has p != 1/6. It means to impart a bias. There are several plausible mechanisms for *how* that bias may be imparted. The one you cite -- gentle, on-axis rolling -- is but one. It is most popular probably because it is actually known to work on a soft surface (you can see that it works on your rug or bed).

But there are others, some potentially more effective than trying to use a blanket roll on a crap table. Dice sliding is one way of imparting a very significant bias. See also:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/5411-has-anyone-ever-seen-a-real-study-on-dice-control/2/#post73270
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/3195-controlled-dice-shooting-is-bs/6/#post35557

And the remainder of that second thread had some good discussions re: detecting bias with slo-mo cameras and custom dice:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/3195-controlled-dice-shooting-is-bs/11/#post36240

Now, I'm not saying any of these can be executed successfully (that is, repeatedly and profitably) in a casino, at least not with a crew that's paying attention, but on a rug or pool table should be a different story. But that's really besides the point, because you're arguing from the too-narrow view that none of that counts and that the *only* legitimate way to influence the dice is by using a soft on-axis toss. There's no reasonable basis for being so narrow. If a dice mechanic can execute a whip shot and kill a 6 (which makes both Pass and Field strongly +EV), would you really maintain that they're not "influencing the dice"?

ahigh " The only thing that is being debated here is whether or not a shooter can gain an edge on the casino."

And we have agreed,you are wrong. This is not a debate, simply a fact of life that you refuse to acknowledge !

Quote: buzzpaff

ahigh " The only thing that is being debated here is whether or not a shooter can gain an edge on the casino."

And we have agreed,you are wrong. This is not a debate, simply a fact of life that you refuse to acknowledge !

Wow...

Quote: buzzpaff

I am among the world's greatest dice setters. I am able to lose my money in any casino in the world. This is a special club that has denied ahigh membership until now !

Actually, anybody can set the dice -- it's the toss that's difficult.

I beg to differ, you can not switch the dice during the toss !

Quote: buzzpaff

And we have agreed,you are wrong.

I have not agreed.

Then drink the kool aid, but don't blame me !

For you Las Vegas believers and non-believers.
Las Vegas will be hosting crap shooting seminars, classes, and workshops for the next three weekends.
Three different groups will be in town on separate weekends.

So it is possible that your favorite Las Vegas casino will be selected as a live show of what dice influencing can and can not do.

I expect shooters, instructors and wanabie shooters will be out and about.
But will in prove anything , NAH.
Changing each other’s mind or perspective does nothing but create hostilities.

Even WONG who was once an advocate, and later changed some of his views, is still out there taking notes on his shooting, as I recently discovered.

Do the words " Put your money where you mouth is " still fall on deaf ears among these hustlers and con-men ?

Quote: buzzpaff

Do the words " Put your money where you mouth is " still fall on deaf ears among these hustlers and con-men ?

Actually, the founder of this very web site once conducted a test with a dice tossing coach and his colleagues, and they proved to be more successful than mathematical expectations. They won 76 times yet the math expected 74 wins. That performance beats the house edge of 1.41% for a line bet, and they might have done even better had they been placing 10x odds, bringing the house edge down to only 0.184%.

If you look further down the page linked above, you can read about another dice tossing test, on which the founder of this web site made a wager. The shooters trounced the math expectations -- in 500 tosses, they rolled only 74 sevens out of an expected 83.33.

Of course, with such short trials, we can't conclusively say that dice "influencers" will win in the long run, but, at the same time, we cannot truthfully say that dice influencers have never accepted the challenge to test their abilities.