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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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April 14th, 2016 at 9:49:08 PM permalink
Quote: Steen

Ok, so $10 flat w/345x odds yields over twice the action as $1.25/hand video poker. The original question remains unanswered: How is that a fair comparison?

Right, but $10 flat with no odds is less action than $1.25/hand video poker. However, because odds has no expected loss, both craps sessions have exactly the same expected loss due to the pass only. The point is that it makes no sense to suggest that somehow playing VP is better than $10 pass with no odds but worse than playing $10 pass with 3/4/5x odds. I know you didn't make that suggestion, but strictly ranking by house edge percentage would indicate that.

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The fact is, taking odds DOES lower the expected loss, but you have to be more specific. It lowers the expected loss on the player's total action, not on the original flat bet.

No, the loss is constant. It lowers the ratio of that loss to the total action, but it doesn't actually decrease the loss at all. The expected loss on a $10 line bet is 14c whether I take odds or not. The loss itself doesn't change.

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Once a player understands this he can do a couple things:
1) He can reapportion his wagers to make smaller flat bets with the intention of taking odds.
2) He can take money he has on other bets and divert it to odds, or he can take money he would otherwise use for subsequent flat bets (or worse) and use it to take odds.

All that's true, but I rarely see that happen where someone takes down another bet and uses it for odds (except a place bet covered by a come). And I've never heard anyone say (out loud) "I was going to bet this $5 on the come for the next roll, but instead I'm going to put it on odds." Most players don't even take full 3/4/5x odds.

For most, the question boils down to "should I put odds behind my line bet or not?" If they read that the house edge is smaller with odds and reason that they should put more money behind the line to realize that smaller house edge, that's misleading and incorrect. The line bet that they've already made is not affected by the odds bet.

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Now about the Fire bet. You can't dispute that it IS better for the house for a given amount of action. Your selling point here is that the Hard Pass would attract so much more action that the house would make more profits despite the fact that they're earning less per dollar of action. That's a perfectly fine selling point but it doesn't invalidate the expected profit per dollar of action. If anything, it's application to the player should be a warning, "Maintaining this wager will likely cause you to bet far more than an equally sized Fire bet."

By the way, I think it's great you've found interest in the Hard Pass. I look forward to seeing it because I can boast that I know the guy who created it! Good luck!

Thanks for the well wishes, I appreciate it. You can be sure I'll let everyone know when and where (and if) it goes live. And I'd never suggest that the house wouldn't win more with a given amount of action, but a given amount of action is never what the casino measures. They go by monthly win numbers, and by that yardstick, if you have two players next to each other and one is making $1 Fire Bets every time he can, and the other is making $1 Hard Pass bets every time she can, the house wins 10% more from the Hard Pass player. That's why I do revenue projections based on timeframes. It doesn't help the house to know that $10,000 action on one bet wins more than $10,000 action on another if the first bet gets the $10k action in two months and the other takes a week. It's a business; cashflow is king.

Similarly for players, it's really important to understand wagering rates in order to compare expected losses between two bets that resolve at different frequencies. What's "better", the 2x/3x Field or the Place 9 bet? On a per-bet basis, it's the Field. On a per-hour basis, it's the Place 9 bet by a landslide. If someone wants to play craps for an hour or two before dinner, and they read in a book "the house edge on the Field is 2.78% and the house edge on the Place 9 bet is 4%," and they think "2.78% < 4%" so they stand there for two hours on the Field instead of the Place 9, their expected loss for the hour or two before dinner is 250% as much as it would have been just camping out on the 9. If an intelligent player knows that and makes an informed bet, great. But someone who doesn't know the game or the math and is relying on the brochure from the gift shop, they're being misled if they try to use the listed percentages as an indication of the price of the game. I think if you tell a player that (a) the cost of keeping a Field bet working every roll is about 2.8 bets/hour and (b) the cost of keeping a Place 9 bet working every roll is about 1.1 bets/hour, then they're more informed for it. From there it's easy to see that making a Field bet every other roll costs 1.4 bets/hour, or betting on the 5 and 9 costs 2.2 bets/hour, etc.

By the way, that's also why I don't cringe as much as I used to when I see people playing prop bets. Big money on the prop area every roll is one thing, but if someone throws in a $1 hardway on an even point and that's all, that costs far less per hour than camping out on a $6 each 6 and 8. And there are a lot of players who like hitting a hardway more than a place bet, even if the win is about the same ($7 vs. $7 or $9). What really kills me is the every-roll field bettors. Except there's always a hot streak; I saw a guy at the Aria win about $500 with green chips on the field in about 5 minutes. So many craps rolls...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RS
RS
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April 15th, 2016 at 2:32:42 AM permalink
It is entirely misleading to say playing the odds decreases the house edge.

It'd be better to say something like: Whatever amount you're comfortable wagering, you should break it up so that you bet x amount on the line and y amount on odds, as you'll lose less than putting X+Y on the line.

Many times, as a craps dealer, you see someone betting the minimum $5 or $10 on the pass line, learning the game, or have some idea of the game but not a good understanding. Do you think telling this person "you should mad out the odds bet because that'll lower the house edge" actually makes sense? Of course not, because he's still losing that 1.41% of his $5 or $10 line bet.

Now if someone has $500 on the line and no odds, probably better to tell him, "Hey, if you still like to bet $500 on the pass....you'd be better off betting $100 or $150 on the pass line, then the rest of the money on the odds."


Saying playing the odds decreases the house edge would mean it'd be a GOOD BET to make, like doubling down 11v6 or splitting 8,8vs3 in BJ. But it's not a GOOD BET to play the odds, it's a FAIR BET. It doesn't matter if you play the odds or no odds, it's the same expected loss.
GWAE
GWAE
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April 15th, 2016 at 2:40:21 AM permalink
Second session in a row where my working come bets got murdered. I had 3 come bets with $20 odds lose on a 7 come out 8 times. I did win a few 4s and 10's though on come out. I was down a bunch from the working come bets but overall only lost $60 in 90 minutes because of 1 shooter repeating a 10 7 times in 1 roll. Would have had a huge win if I wasn't working my odds.

The really frustrating part is I would have a 5,6,9 working. They would throw a 7 and then a 9. That happened all but 1 time.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 15th, 2016 at 3:49:13 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Second session in a row where my working come bets got murdered.



I know you weren't much into Craps not so long ago, so it'd be interesting to ask you a few questions if you don't mind. You have been influenced Wizardly but also I saw influences from other elements, so it makes a test case. I particularly remember you getting the idea that it might be important to get all the numbers covered, a lot of the players you observed were trying to do that, and you asked if you should be making more place bets.

What about the current discussion, which category do you place yourself in? I assume you are not the player who bets big on the line without odds or any other bets [is there such a player besides a newbie?] So are you ...

*the player who bets the minimum on the line and takes free odds, the combined bet being comfortable for you; if wanting more action making similar come bets with odds?

or

*the player who bets whatever on the line, but isn't comfortable with large bets and doesn't add odds or much in odds. If wanting more action, seeks out hardways, any craps, field bets, etc?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
GWAE
GWAE
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April 15th, 2016 at 5:16:50 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I know you weren't much into Craps not so long ago, so it'd be interesting to ask you a few questions if you don't mind. You have been influenced Wizardly but also I saw influences from other elements, so it makes a test case. I particularly remember you getting the idea that it might be important to get all the numbers covered, a lot of the players you observed were trying to do that, and you asked if you should be making more place bets.

What about the current discussion, which category do you place yourself in? I assume you are not the player who bets big on the line without odds or any other bets [is there such a player besides a newbie?] So are you ...

*the player who bets the minimum on the line and takes free odds, the combined bet being comfortable for you; if wanting more action making similar come bets with odds?

or

*the player who bets whatever on the line, but isn't comfortable with large bets and doesn't add odds or much in odds. If wanting more action, seeks out hardways, any craps, field bets, etc?



You are very right. When we had WoV east a few years back I had just started playing come bets and Teddy, you, and 1 other basically taught me the basics of come bets. After that point I was doing continuous come bets. As you remember I had some discussion on here about having too many come bets out and it seemed like it was impossible to actually win. I have now tweaked my play to be the same exact every single time. It is as follows.

I buy in for $200 at a $5 table. I play $1 on the fire every roll as well.

I play $5 pass and also have 2 come bets. I also keep my come bets working on the come out. I may remove this as I play with a small bank roll and probably should reduce my variance a little.

As far as odds I do the following. If my remaining chips in the rack is 0-100 I have 2x odds, 200-300 I have 3x odds, 300-500 I have 4x odds. Anything over $500 I take 5x odds.

I also set my session limit at 2 hours. I actually set an alarm on my phone and when it goes off I leave immediately after the current shooter.

I also rat hole chips after every shooter. I do it as follows. If I have 2 come bets on numbers and no new come bet then I rat hole $5, If I have 0-1 come bets with odds and $5 on the come during a 7 out then I rat hole whatever the current amount of odds I would have played on that come bet if it would have gone up on a number. Whenever my rack has less money than 1 pass with 2x odds and 1 come with 2x odds (so under $30) then my session is over. I will walk with that money plus the money I rat holed.

Only I can turn a complicated game into a more complicated one.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 15th, 2016 at 6:37:56 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Quote: odiousgambit

Only I can turn a complicated game into a more complicated one.



OK, good, glad you are sticking with something sensible, at least in your reply it sounds like you stay away from the sucker bets.

Of course, we all have to remember it's negative expectation no matter how we bet. Going back to your original comment about 7-out first, then your number gets rolled ... such things are to be expected as the negative EV plays itself out and we all endure it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
GWAE
GWAE
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April 15th, 2016 at 7:16:35 AM permalink
For a little while I was playing $1 hard 6 and 8 then I would parlay the winning once and hope for the $90 win. Then someone on here, maybe Teddy, said that I should self bank my parlay. So I was putting $1 on the rack each time that I would bet the hard way, if the hard 8 came up then I would take $10 from my $1 chips and make a $10 hard way. Doing it this way I was only paying the HE on the $10 bet instead of HE on each $1 plus the HE on the parlay. There were some sessions where my normal play money would be out so I would cash out my hard way bank. However I stopped doing it because it wasn't very much fun.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
rushdl
rushdl
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April 15th, 2016 at 7:50:44 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

For a little while I was playing $1 hard 6 and 8 then I would parlay the winning once and hope for the $90 win. Then someone on here, maybe Teddy, said that I should self bank my parlay. So I was putting $1 on the rack each time that I would bet the hard way, if the hard 8 came up then I would take $10 from my $1 chips and make a $10 hard way. Doing it this way I was only paying the HE on the $10 bet instead of HE on each $1 plus the HE on the parlay. There were some sessions where my normal play money would be out so I would cash out my hard way bank. However I stopped doing it because it wasn't very much fun.



Hard 6or8 HE is 9.091% (1/11) isn't that a pretty poor bet? If that's true what is the parlay HE? I think that takes the HE to 30.15% is that right?
RS
RS
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April 15th, 2016 at 8:18:29 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Hard 6or8 HE is 9.091% (1/11) isn't that a pretty poor bet? If that's true what is the parlay HE? I think that takes the HE to 30.15% is that right?



I'm going to assume a "pay and take it down" for math cuz I been up for like 14 hours now and my brain be gettin' fuzzy. But --

$1 to win $99, with the odds to win are 1/11^2 = 1/121. So you lose $120 for every $99 you win, for $121 in action. In other words, you lose $21 for every $121 in action. -$21/$121 ~= -0.173553719 = -17.35% EV (17.35% HE).
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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April 15th, 2016 at 8:30:26 AM permalink
Quote: RS

I'm going to assume a "pay and take it down" for math cuz I been up for like 14 hours now and my brain be gettin' fuzzy. But --

$1 to win $99, with the odds to win are 1/11^2 = 1/121. So you lose $120 for every $99 you win, for $121 in action. In other words, you lose $21 for every $121 in action. -$21/$121 ~= -0.173553719 = -17.35% EV (17.35% HE).

Right. Alternately, the return on a single wager is 1-0.090909... = 0.90909; parlaying that is 0.90909^2 = 0.82645; the edge based on that is 1-0.82645 = 0.17355. In other words, when combining the effects of multiple transactions on the same initial wager, it's easier to work with the payback percentage than the edge because you just multiply everything together.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

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