Seen This?

Went to play craps last night. I made 14 points in a row. The suit said he had never seen that happen before. Has anyone?

Quote: cowboy

Went to play craps last night. I made 14 points in a row. The suit said he had never seen that happen before. Has anyone?
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Yes. He must be new.

If we treat a craps hand like a coin flip, a 50-50 proposition, the chances of one side or the other winning 14 in a row is 2¹⁴, or 1 in 16384. Given all the craps tables in the world rolling at any time, I'd guess people see it every day.

Quote: cowboy

Went to play craps last night. I made 14 points in a row. The suit said he had never seen that happen before. Has anyone?
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Once a point is established, the probability of making it depends on which number was set:

Point of 4 or 10: 3 ways to make it vs 6 ways to seven out → probability 3/9 = 1/3
Point of 5 or 9: 4 ways vs 6 ways → probability 4/10 = 2/5
Point of 6 or 8: 5 ways vs 6 ways → probability 5/11 ≈ 0.4545

The six points are not equally likely to be established either. Of the 24 non-craps, non-natural come-out rolls (i.e. excluding 2, 3, 7, 11, 12), the distribution is:

4 or 10: 3 ways each → 6/24
5 or 9: 4 ways each → 8/24
6 or 8: 5 ways each → 10/24

So the average probability of making any given point is:
(6/24 × 1/3) + (8/24 × 2/5) + (10/24 × 5/11)
= 0.0833 + 0.1333 + 0.1894
≈ 0.406

The probability of making 14 in a row is approximately 0.406¹⁴ ≈ 1 in 15,856

It would take roughly 6 weeks for a table running 8 hours a day to produce a streak like this, so yeah, most casual players won't see it very often.

Hope you were playing the fire bet

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: cowboy

Went to play craps last night. I made 14 points in a row. The suit said he had never seen that happen before. Has anyone?
link to original post

Yes. He must be new.

If we treat a craps hand like a coin flip, a 50-50 proposition, the chances of one side or the other winning 14 in a row is 2¹⁴, or 1 in 16384. Given all the craps tables in the world rolling at any time, I'd guess people see it every day.
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Quote: TheCaptain

Quote: cowboy

Went to play craps last night. I made 14 points in a row. The suit said he had never seen that happen before. Has anyone?
link to original post

Once a point is established, the probability of making it depends on which number was set:

Point of 4 or 10: 3 ways to make it vs 6 ways to seven out → probability 3/9 = 1/3
Point of 5 or 9: 4 ways vs 6 ways → probability 4/10 = 2/5
Point of 6 or 8: 5 ways vs 6 ways → probability 5/11 ≈ 0.4545

The six points are not equally likely to be established either. Of the 24 non-craps, non-natural come-out rolls (i.e. excluding 2, 3, 7, 11, 12), the distribution is:

4 or 10: 3 ways each → 6/24
5 or 9: 4 ways each → 8/24
6 or 8: 5 ways each → 10/24

So the average probability of making any given point is:
(6/24 × 1/3) + (8/24 × 2/5) + (10/24 × 5/11)
= 0.0833 + 0.1333 + 0.1894
≈ 0.406

The probability of making 14 in a row is approximately 0.406¹⁴ ≈ 1 in 15,856

It would take roughly 6 weeks for a table running 8 hours a day to produce a streak like this, so yeah, most casual players won't see it very often.
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You fella's math is a little off. .406^14 = 3.30647E-06 or about 1 in 300,000.

Quote: avianrandy

Hope you were playing the fire bet
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No, unfortunately.