Please explain how the house edge is calculated for a place wager in the 6
What I'm not understanding is how the wizard comes up with a 1.52% house edge by placing the 6 or the 8.
Obviously the true payout should be 1.2 to 1. And what you're actually getting on a place wager with the 6 is 1.167 to 1. I'm not the greatest with math but it just seems like the edge is actually 3.3%.
Can anyone explain in very basic terms how the 1.52% is derived and in particular, where I'm off on my math calculation. There is an advanced calculation on the wizardofodds site, but honestly it makes no sense to me (so please don't just copy that).
Quote: bodyforlifeWhen I go to Vegas, I typically stay consistent with my wagers placing the 6 and the 8. I realize the pass line with odds gives a lower house edge, but I tend to last longer on my bankroll with the aforementioned strategy .
What I'm not understanding is how the wizard comes up with a 1.52% house edge by placing the 6 or the 8.
Obviously the true payout should be 1.2 to 1. And what you're actually getting on a place wager with the 6 is 1.167 to 1. I'm not the greatest with math but it just seems like the edge is actually 3.3%.
Can anyone explain in very basic terms how the 1.52% is derived and in particular, where I'm off on my math calculation. There is an advanced calculation on the wizardofodds site, but honestly it makes no sense to me (so please don't just copy that).
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The fair odds on a winning six would be 6 to 5, but it actually pays only 7 to 6. The difference is 6 / 5 - 7 / 6 = 1 / 30 ≈ 3.3%.
However, to get the house edge of the place bet on six, we divide the above number by one plus the fair odds, so the house edge is (1 / 30) / (1 + 6/5) = 1 / 66 ≈ 1.52%.
The EV of a bet is: p win * odds - p lose
P lose = 1 - p win,
so EV = p win * odds - (1 - p win) = (p win)(odds + 1) - 1.
For a fair bet, EV = 0 = (p win)(fair odds + 1) - 1.
Solving for p win: p win = 1 / (fair odds + 1)
EV = (p win)(odds + 1) - 1 = [1 / (fair odds + 1)](odds + 1) - 1 = (odds - fair odds) / (fair odds + 1)
House edge = - EV = (fair odds - odds) / (fair odds + 1)
Quote: bodyforlifeThank you so much ChesterDog! I really appreciate it.
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OK. So, now that you know the math, why is that important? I mean, how will it affect your craps play? Does the HE directly relate to the actual odds of winning a placed 6 or 8? For me, getting into the "weeds" creates confusion.
tuttigym
