Quote:ChallengedMillyApparently one or two of the manufacturers went belly up due to covid? Also they've been semi-exploitable by really bad (cheating...) dealers, absent minded dealers, and I suspect even DI guys that get away with sliding the dice rather than throwing at the back wall. If you google 'casino dealer arrested' there's a case from just this month where a dealer was arrested for inputting the wrong numbers into the machine and also doing a "delayed" key in. His crew walked away with about $90,000 before being caught.Quote:Ace2I remember playing RollToWin (electronic table) and this tourist next to me went like 35 rolls. She said it was her first time to play

Speaking of which, is RollToWin a flop? I remember seeing some tables a couple years ago…not so much these days

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Some casinos do still have them though.

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Were there more manufacturers than Aruze?

Laying odds on the 4/10, the variance is 0.5. This is the lowest variance bet in the casino!Quote:TankoQuote:unJonOnly tourists make min odds bets.

Careful laying odds on the 4 or the 10. The variance can be enormous. A single hot shooter will hit you like a bolt of lightning.

Played three hours beside a regular at PARX last month, who brought his game.

His set was a 2 stacked on top of a six, every roll. He had a good roll every time he had the dice. Combined, he rolled five come out 4's and made four of them.

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Any bet will have losing/winning streaks, but you are more likely to have a winning streak and less likely to have a losing streak laying the 4/10 than any other bet because you have a 2/3 chance of winning it.

Quote:Ace2Laying odds on the 4/10, the variance is 0.5. This is the lowest variance bet in the casino!

Any bet will have losing/winning streaks, but you are more likely to have a winning streak and less likely to have a losing streak laying the 4/10 than any other bet because you have a 2/3 chance of winning it.

FALSE

Congratulations on being the first person in history to figure out a way to get the SD below 0.99. And with odds bets no less. Impressive.

I challenge Wizard to try that.

0.5 "Lowest variance in the house." Seriously, where did you come up with that nonsense?

Fact is the SD for 3X odds is 3.837. The Variance is a whooping 14.72. Doesn't matter which side you're on. Variance is always positive.

You are also no less likely to have a losing streak laying odds on the 4 and 10.

Variance worked quite well for the PARX shooter on the Pass Line. He won 24 units on his bets. A player on the Don'ts would have lost 24 units. Each player experienced the same huge variance, but with opposite results.

I think the lowest SD is 0.25 , the coin flipQuote:TankoQuote:Ace2Laying odds on the 4/10, the variance is 0.5. This is the lowest variance bet in the casino!

Any bet will have losing/winning streaks, but you are more likely to have a winning streak and less likely to have a losing streak laying the 4/10 than any other bet because you have a 2/3 chance of winning it.

FALSE

Congratulations on being the first person in history to figure out a way to get the SD below 0.99. And with odds bets no less. Impressive.

??Quote:I challenge Wizard to try that.

But that isn't the SD for the bet on the 4 or 10. I get SD = sqrt((2/3*1/3))*(9/6) = 0.707 if you bet $6 and get $3 on wins + your bet returned of course.Quote:0.5 "Lowest variance in the house." Seriously, where did you come up with that nonsense?

Fact is the SD for 3X odds is 3.837. The Variance is a whooping 14.72. Doesn't matter which side you're on. Variance is always positive.

you are less likely, generally, to have losing streaks playing the darkside … and especially laying odds on the 4 and 10.Quote:You are also no less likely to have a losing streak laying odds on the 4 and 10.

This is quite new to me, the idea of avoiding odds action on the 4 and 10. Usually what I see is avoidance of any action at all on the 6 and 8, literally taking down the entire bet and starting over.

Ah yes, that variance, always a double edged sword. Don't slash away putting your hand on the blade!Quote:Variance worked quite well for the PARX shooter on the Pass Line. He won 24 units on his bets. A player on the Don'ts would have lost 24 units. Each player experienced the same huge variance, but with opposite results.

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I think the general frustration with the Darkside free odds betting is observing those times that you are winning well above half the time, yet still watch your bankroll dwindle. If you put odds on the 4/10 you need to win 67% of the time just to stay even. If you win just a bit over 60 % of the time it’s hard to think you are losing money at the gut level ... but you likely are!

So the dealers say “you can’t win on the darkside odds because it pays less than even” … this is a mis-statement, but it derives from the factual statement that if you are getting paid less than even money, you must win a higher percentage of the bets than 50% to win or stay even, often much higher. With Craps free odds darkside, generally you need to win 2 out of 3, and if all the free odds bets were on the 4/10 you would just be staying even at that rate. And meantime you should be coming out ‘in the hole’ for the come-out bets that don’t travel, and need to make up for that. That’s a lot of winning, mister, and if you go on a losing streak it’s all over.

What is the variance and std dev of the over wager?

If the variance is near zero on a bet, then the standard deviation is also nearly zero.

The variance of a coin flip is 0.25. The coin flip has a large chance of losing, so it should be possible to dream up single unhedged wagers with much lower variance.

Quote:odiousgambityou are less likely, generally, to have losing streaks playing the darkside … and especially laying odds on the 4 and 10.

What happens when you lose a few of those bets with odds without a winner?

I said you are no less likely to have a losing streak laying odds on the 4 and 10.

You are still expected to win and lose at the same ratio. Odds can not improve that.

I am not saying avoid odds on the 4 and 10. Laying odds doesn't improve anyone's chances against a losing streak, and they are very costly during one.

What part of lower variance don't you understand? Laying odds means you lose less often, and this reduces the variance. This means your bankroll swings will be less even during bad runs.Quote:TankoQuote:odiousgambityou are less likely, generally, to have losing streaks playing the darkside … and especially laying odds on the 4 and 10.

What happens when you lose a few of those bets with odds without a winner?

I said you are no less likely to have a losing streak laying odds on the 4 and 10.

You are still expected to win and lose at the same ratio. Odds can not improve that.

I am not saying avoid odds on the 4 and 10. Laying odds doesn't improve anyone's chances against a losing streak, and they are very costly during one.

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Laying odds on the 4/10, you have a 2/3 chance of winning .5 units and a 1/3 chance of losing 1 unit, for an average loss of zero. 2/3 * (.5 - 0)^2 + 1/3 * (-1 - 0)^2 = .5 which is the variance. 0.5^0.5 = .707 which is the standard deviationQuote:TankoQuote:Ace2Laying odds on the 4/10, the variance is 0.5. This is the lowest variance bet in the casino!

Any bet will have losing/winning streaks, but you are more likely to have a winning streak and less likely to have a losing streak laying the 4/10 than any other bet because you have a 2/3 chance of winning it.

FALSE

Congratulations on being the first person in history to figure out a way to get the SD below 0.99. And with odds bets no less. Impressive.

I challenge Wizard to try that.

0.5 "Lowest variance in the house." Seriously, where did you come up with that nonsense?

Fact is the SD for 3X odds is 3.837. The Variance is a whooping 14.72. Doesn't matter which side you're on. Variance is always positive.

You are also no less likely to have a losing streak laying odds on the 4 and 10.

Variance worked quite well for the PARX shooter on the Pass Line. He won 24 units on his bets. A player on the Don'ts would have lost 24 units. Each player experienced the same huge variance, but with opposite results.

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Statistical calculations don’t get any easier than that and I can’t believe I had to explain it. You have no idea what you’re talking about. Every bet with a >50% chance of winning and an edge >=0 will have a variance below 1. This is because a win pays less than the amount wagered. I’m not sure you fully grasp that you are favored to win a lay bet…that doesn’t mean you’ll win it every time, though

You, like so many other superstitious, math-illiterate players, are simply trying to make an argument like: “Darkside players lose lots of money when rightsiders are winning!!! I just saw one last night!!!” Using your “logic” I could make the argument: “I just saw four consecutive seven-outs! Pass line players got killed! Don’t ever bet the passline since the ‘variance’ is horrible during a ‘cold table!!!’”

Quote:odiousgambitThis is quite new to me, the idea of avoiding odds action on the 4 and 10. Usually what I see is avoidance of any action at all on the 6 and 8, literally taking down the entire bet and starting over.

I didn’t suggest avoiding odds on the 4 and 10. I said you are no less likely to have a losing streak laying odds on the 4 and 10. They can work against you. Avoiding any action on the 6 and 8 can hurt.

WinCraps sim 35k Zumma rolls. 293 120 roll sessions $10 DP bet only

3x on 4 and 10 only

Won 147

Lost 137

Even 9

Net -$2,620

Zero odds on all numbers

Won 137

Lost 141

Even 15

Net -$1,720

5x on 6 and 8 only

Won 152

Lost 140

Even 1

Net +$1,790

I agree with Ace's math except that it doesn't take account of the commission. I don't mind ignoring the commission, since commission rules vary by casino. However, the commission always lowers the variance. For games I play where the commission is taken out of wins only, the variance is reduced from 0.5 to 0.48375.Quote:Ace2Laying odds on the 4/10, you have a 2/3 chance of winning .5 units and a 1/3 chance of losing 1 unit, for an average loss of zero. 2/3 * (.5 - 0)^2 + 1/3 * (-1 - 0)^2 = .5 which is the variance. 0.5^0.5 = .707 which is the standard deviationQuote:TankoQuote:Ace2

Any bet will have losing/winning streaks, but you are more likely to have a winning streak and less likely to have a losing streak laying the 4/10 than any other bet because you have a 2/3 chance of winning it.

FALSE

Congratulations on being the first person in history to figure out a way to get the SD below 0.99. And with odds bets no less. Impressive.

I challenge Wizard to try that.

0.5 "Lowest variance in the house." Seriously, where did you come up with that nonsense?

Fact is the SD for 3X odds is 3.837. The Variance is a whooping 14.72. Doesn't matter which side you're on. Variance is always positive.

You are also no less likely to have a losing streak laying odds on the 4 and 10.

Variance worked quite well for the PARX shooter on the Pass Line. He won 24 units on his bets. A player on the Don'ts would have lost 24 units. Each player experienced the same huge variance, but with opposite results.

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Statistical calculations don’t get any easier than that and I can’t believe I had to explain it. You have no idea what you’re talking about. Every bet with a >50% chance of winning and an edge >=0 will have a variance below 1. This is because a win pays less than the amount wagered. I’m not sure you fully grasp that you are favored to win a lay bet…that doesn’t mean you’ll win it every time, though

You, like so many other superstitious, math-illiterate players, are simply trying to make an argument like: “Darkside players lose lots of money when rightsiders are winning!!! I just saw one last night!!!” Using your “logic” I could make the argument: “I just saw four consecutive seven-outs! Pass line players got killed! Don’t ever bet the passline since the ‘variance’ is horrible during a ‘cold table!!!’”

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I also agree with Ace that it makes no sense to cherry pick losing streaks. What value does it add to say, "If I do lose 8 lay bets in a row, I really get smoked." Variance is a good measure of how likely you are to experience a big loss. Variance of 0.48375 is extremely low relative to other common wagers.

Wikipedia says laying odds has a 5% commission. I never layed odds before, so I tried it today online. I was charged a 5% commission on the win. A $10 bet paid $14.75, so this is a 5% commission of the amount won in addition to the return of the bet. This matches the wikipedia table: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CrapsQuote:Ace2Laying odds has no commission

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As I said, rules vary by casino. But I doubt you can get true odds at any casino that isn't contingent on having other action in play (like the odds bet).

Okay, I never bet at a physical craps table, so I didn't think taking advantage of the odds bet was called 'laying odds'. Wiki calls that 'Don't Pass Odds'. Nothing in the rules that I have available to me call that laying odds. I just see a lay bet listed on the felt that has a commission.Quote:odiousgambitconfusing laying the 10/4 as a requested bet, with laying the free odds bets here. If you go through the comeout with a darkside line bet, and it travels to 10/4, you get to make a free odds bet for no commission

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I suppose if I read back in the thread, I would have realized that the subject under discussion was the Don't Pass Odds bet.

However, my point stands. Laying 4/10 has a lower variance than the Don't Pass Odds on 4/10.

If you made a buy/lay bet, for which there is a commission, you would not use the word odds. You’re just buying or laying a number

Not sure what you’re trying to say. There’s only a 17% chance the DP bet will be resolved with a 4/10, so how can you even compare the two?Quote:ChumpChangeIf you compare a $10 DP with $30 odds to a $40 lay bet with a commission on the 4/10, you'd bet the same amount unless it's vig upfront. You'd get paid $25 if the DP with odds win and paid $19 if the Lay bet wins. Not sure if losing on the come-out rolls reduces the effective average payout of the DP w/ odds win down $6.

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Other notes. You should lay $60 odds on 4/10. Using your example, a $70 lay bet would also be a better deal since it would still be a $1 commission

Adding to this, I think a regression strategy works the best overall. The main issue is figuring out what kind of 'count' to use, or any count at all of when you lay out a larger wager to get 1 hit and regress down. In theory you time the wagers in the right sequence for your time at the table, you're gonna do amazing. You're putting yourself out there at a larger risk, but fewer times overall.Quote:ChumpChangeI think the way to beat craps is to do some kind of progressions that put you into profit. This HA is insidious but the roll of the dice are even worse. You need some peak profit opportunities to overcome them both.

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If you can “time the wagers right” then you don’t need any sort of betting system/strategy. You already know what’s going to happen before it happens and just bet accordinglyQuote:ChallengedMillyAdding to this, I think a regression strategy works the best overall. The main issue is figuring out what kind of 'count' to use, or any count at all of when you lay out a larger wager to get 1 hit and regress down. In theory you time the wagers in the right sequence for your time at the table, you're gonna do amazing. You're putting yourself out there at a larger risk, but fewer times overall.Quote:ChumpChangeI think the way to beat craps is to do some kind of progressions that put you into profit. This HA is insidious but the roll of the dice are even worse. You need some peak profit opportunities to overcome them both.

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I have played some very heavy craps to the limit and I never saw a single Don't roller. I actually didn't see much if any Don't bettors, I mean if the table is cheering, everyone's making money, who would come up and toss something on the Don't? You hear about such people but I have rarely experienced one.

The one time I recall a Don't bettor he was a flexible one, he'd take down the Don't bet on certain points, and I believe he would back up with Don't odds on numbers like 4 and 10. Also I recall his making Come bets when he took down his Don't.

I have a couple of very high rolling friends who reserve a craps table in the back of high limit just for them and their friends and no one at that table is betting the Don't.

If a table is cheering then that probably means “do”‘bettors have been recently winning. This has no effect on what happens next

It’s no different than betting heads or tails, except that there is no irrational concept that betting tails is “dark”, “wrong”, or “betting against the coin flipper”

You're describing a typical table. It's possible there are more Don't bettors in the East, I think it tends to be the case that there is less hate on the Darksiders where the game is newer. You don't see much shooting from the Don't though, just betting it.Quote:MDawgSo, if you're rolling the Don't you bet only the no pass line and the odds? Are you hoping to hold the dice for as little time as possible since you don't want to make any points?

I have played some very heavy craps to the limit and I never saw a single Don't roller. I actually didn't see much if any Don't bettors, I mean if the table is cheering, everyone's making money, who would come up and toss something on the Don't? You hear about such people but I have rarely experienced one.

The one time I recall a Don't bettor he was a flexible one, he'd take down the Don't bet on certain points, and I believe he would back up with Don't odds on numbers like 4 and 10. Also I recall his making Come bets when he took down his Don't.

I have a couple of very high rolling friends who reserve a craps table in the back of high limit just for them and their friends and no one at that table is betting the Don't.

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If playing with friends, the Rightside is the way to go for sure.

Quote:Ace2Betting the don’t means you’re betting the opposite of the “do”. If you want to load up the table then you lay all the numbers and/or keep betting DC + odds.

If a table is cheering then that probably means “do”‘bettors have been recently winning. This has no effect on what happens next

It’s no different than betting heads or tails, except that there is no irrational concept that betting tails is “dark”, “wrong”, or “betting against the coin flipper”

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If the coin flip game was played with the rule that on a heads the same flipper gets to flip again, but on tails the person must pass to the next flipper, then you would see the same “dark”, “wrong” and “betting against the coin flipped” concepts develop.

Some of those touristy players pass the dice at the last second so I can't decide if I should make a line bet or a Place Bet (6 or 8) bet if the person before me is the shooter and I need to make a bet on the shooter before me to qualify to be a shooter after him/her. If 3 people pass the dice to me and I hadn't made a bet on the last shooter, will I still get the dice?

There are a few casinos that let me play craps for a 15% loss rebate. The rebate is worth a bit more if I play the Do side, but I always play the Don't because it is simpler to play the dark side. If the maximum loss rebate is $50, I just bet $50 on the Don't. If I make a point on the first roll, then I take 6x odds and the $350 bet covers the maximum promo loss. If I win or lose on the CO roll, then I adjust the bet up or down to be at least 1/7th the amount that I still need to lose.

If I bet on the Do instead, then I would not know how big my odds bet will be until I make a point. I would have to make several points to cover the max loss efficiently.

I assume on the Don't you get the reverse, the most on 6/8 least on 2/4? How do you stack your Don't odds chips anyway, not behind I assume?

And yes, betting the Don't and rolling must be wildly unpopular in Vegas because I never see it. And in general Don't players who jump into the middle of a table of regular players are scorned.

Now, I understand that the Phantom Gambler was a Don't player with his $777,000. and other rolls, but he was playing alone. And even if technically anyone else could step up to his table, I bet no one would have bet against him, it would be like someone placing a cheesy $200. or so bet against a high roller's table limit at the Baccarat table. You see it, it's happened, but it's not common practice.

My local table has 10X odds with a $6K max odds, so a $600 PL bet could have $6K of odds on it and it would pay a total of $12,600 for the win. On the Don't side I suppose an odds bet of $12K on the 4/10 is allowed as the odds bet would pay the max of $6K on a win.

At Bubble Craps I tell people I'm shooting the Don'ts because it's not obvious and they can do what they will with that information. A lot of players shoot the Don'ts on the Bubble Craps and they either wipe out the table every time or get wiped out themselves every time.

At the table, it's obvious the shooter is betting the Don'ts because of the placement of their chips on the layout. They will try to load up a couple spots with the DC bets too then throw that 7-out for a 3 point win. If you're alone at the table it'd be easy to rack up 30 points of Don'ts ahead with this strategy (if it worked out).

I've found myself alone at the table for the first time a couple times this year and they shut down the table immediately because it was closing time after I had already heard the other dealers say closing time was a half hour later or an hour later. I guess I have to go earlier in the day.

Why is it okay to go to a sports book and cheer and talk trash and hope the guy at the next table loses his side of the bet? What sort of delicate flowers are playing craps? Will they wilt if someone bets the other way?

I have never seen a divided table win, because what always happens is that even if the player on the winning side is on a hot streak and winning most of his hands, he will typically lower his bet when he sees that the table is not united with him. Of course, he shouldn't, and that someone is betting against him should not matter, but it does. Baccarat players especially Asian ones are superstitious and view the contra bets as not just disrespect but bad luck directed against them. So in the end, the winning player bets less and the losing player loses anyway. I've seen long streaks where some guy is betting against the streak and losing every hand, but not necessarily for much, and then the player or players on the winning side of the streak lower their bets because they figure the guy betting against them must "know something." None of this is scientific, but just the way it always goes down - divided tables, no one ends up winning by the end of the session. The times when you see the rack nearly emptied are on streaks when everyone is on the same side, and they are betting more and more with each hand.

Just figuring (5/6)^24 = 0.0125 or a 1.25% chance of waiting out 25 rolls to roll a 7.