poli2k01
poli2k01
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September 16th, 2022 at 2:00:26 AM permalink
Hello fellow Craps enthusiasts - I've been looking at rules on the Craps and was wondering why when playing DON'T PASS, players are not allowed to bet on PLACE or BUY bets ON THE POINT NUMBER once a point has been established. If this was allowed, would this be Advantage Play for players?

Example:
1. Comeout roll - Bet $10 on Don't Pass
2. Point 4 was established
3. Player Bets
$5 Buy on 4
$1 Each on other numbers ($1 Buy on 5, $1 Place on 6, $1 Place on 8, $1 buy on 9, $1 buy on 10)
4. Expected outcome:
7-out: Don't Pass wins $10, all number bets loses (-$10), net result = 0 (wash)
4 rolls point wins - $5 Buy wins $9.75, but Don't Pass losses $10, net result = - $0.25

I would like to see some math to validate if this is Advantage Play for player or not with the following assumptions:
1. Given the house edge at #1 at $10
2. The average rolls of 4 rolls before point number gets rolled OR a 7 out

I think the question would boil down to is: Assume if there is a player's edge POST-COME OUT given the conditions above, would it be greater than the COME-OUT disadvantage when betting don't pass.

Again, thank you for enlightening me.
unJon
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poli2k01
September 16th, 2022 at 3:36:16 AM permalink
Question; why are you complicating it with $1 on other numbers?

Why not $10 on the donít pass, point of four established and buy the 4 for $7?

If 7 out, +3
If 4 made, +2.6 (assume they round you down)


And the answer is, no, this post come out advantage is not enough to overcome the disadvantage inherent in the donít pass bet. And in fact, the hedge on the 4 eats into the advantage that you had post come out when the 4 was established.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
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September 16th, 2022 at 3:49:06 AM permalink
delete - bad post
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 16, 2022
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UP84
UP84
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September 16th, 2022 at 4:27:46 AM permalink
Quote: poli2k01

Hello fellow Craps enthusiasts - I've been looking at rules on the Craps and was wondering why when playing DON'T PASS, players are not allowed to bet on PLACE or BUY bets ON THE POINT NUMBER once a point has been established. If this was allowed, would this be Advantage Play for players?

Example:
1. Comeout roll - Bet $10 on Don't Pass
2. Point 4 was established
3. Player Bets
$5 Buy on 4
$1 Each on other numbers ($1 Buy on 5, $1 Place on 6, $1 Place on 8, $1 buy on 9, $1 buy on 10)
4. Expected outcome:
7-out: Don't Pass wins $10, all number bets loses (-$10), net result = 0 (wash)
4 rolls point wins - $5 Buy wins $9.75, but Don't Pass losses $10, net result = - $0.25

I would like to see some math to validate if this is Advantage Play for player or not with the following assumptions:
1. Given the house edge at #1 at $10
2. The average rolls of 4 rolls before point number gets rolled OR a 7 out

I think the question would boil down to is: Assume if there is a player's edge POST-COME OUT given the conditions above, would it be greater than the COME-OUT disadvantage when betting don't pass.

Again, thank you for enlightening me.
link to original post

No.

Once a point is established, the expected return of a DP bet on that point is positive. In your example you're essentially asking if after Step 2 (a point is established), is there is a betting strategy that will provide an advantage to the player? The problem is that at Step 2, the DP player already HAS an advantage. The full analysis of whether your strategy is an Advantage Play requires looking at the expected loss in getting to Step 2 in the first place. For DP bets, the expected return prior to making a point is negative.
Last edited by: UP84 on Sep 16, 2022
poli2k01
poli2k01
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September 16th, 2022 at 5:27:00 AM permalink
Thank you for this. So the Negative EV of don't pass COMEOUT bet prior to step #2 is greater than the advantage the DP has after Step 2? Correct?
UP84
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poli2k01
September 16th, 2022 at 5:32:08 AM permalink
Quote: poli2k01

Thank you for this. So the Negative EV of don't pass COMEOUT bet prior to step #2 is greater than the advantage the DP has after Step 2? Correct?
link to original post

Correct.
darkoz
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poli2k01
September 16th, 2022 at 5:53:06 AM permalink
Quote: UP84

Quote: poli2k01

Thank you for this. So the Negative EV of don't pass COMEOUT bet prior to step #2 is greater than the advantage the DP has after Step 2? Correct?
link to original post

Correct.
link to original post



But the negative EV is present either way on the come out.

From a mathematical end, your method you are already at an advantage greater than the hedge.

But from a AP concept the advantage in the hedge is guaranteed profit after the point is made. In essence you would be paying for a zero variance situation. Paying for the guarantee of an angst free wager.

So there is an advantage. Just not overcoming the house advantage.
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Mission146
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odiousgambitpoli2k01
September 16th, 2022 at 7:01:14 AM permalink
Quote: UP84

Quote: poli2k01

Hello fellow Craps enthusiasts - I've been looking at rules on the Craps and was wondering why when playing DON'T PASS, players are not allowed to bet on PLACE or BUY bets ON THE POINT NUMBER once a point has been established. If this was allowed, would this be Advantage Play for players?

Example:
1. Comeout roll - Bet $10 on Don't Pass
2. Point 4 was established
3. Player Bets
$5 Buy on 4
$1 Each on other numbers ($1 Buy on 5, $1 Place on 6, $1 Place on 8, $1 buy on 9, $1 buy on 10)
4. Expected outcome:
7-out: Don't Pass wins $10, all number bets loses (-$10), net result = 0 (wash)
4 rolls point wins - $5 Buy wins $9.75, but Don't Pass losses $10, net result = - $0.25

I would like to see some math to validate if this is Advantage Play for player or not with the following assumptions:
1. Given the house edge at #1 at $10
2. The average rolls of 4 rolls before point number gets rolled OR a 7 out

I think the question would boil down to is: Assume if there is a player's edge POST-COME OUT given the conditions above, would it be greater than the COME-OUT disadvantage when betting don't pass.

Again, thank you for enlightening me.
link to original post

No.

Once a point is established, the expected return of a DP bet on that point is positive. In your example you're essentially asking if after Step 2 (a point is established), is there is a betting strategy that will provide an advantage to the player? The problem is that at Step 2, the DP player already HAS an advantage. The full analysis of whether your strategy is an Advantage Play requires looking at the expected loss in getting to Step 2 in the first place. For DP bets, the expected return prior to making a point is negative.
link to original post



Here's the thing: We can step-by-step this, which we will, but we really don't have to.

The most fundamental principle there is when it comes to advantage (or lack thereof) is that there is simply no way for multiple negative expectation bets to become a positive expectation bet. It is simply impossible absent something external to just the normal rules of the game.

Okay, so immediately we know that a DP $10 bet has an expected loss of $0.14 per bet resolved; we also know that the $5 Buy 4 has an expected loss of $0.0835 per bet resolved, as it seems that you are using the 39:20.

Therefore, no advantage is possible because both are negative expectation bets. Procedurally, they don't allow this on the Point Number; I have no insight into their reasons why, but what I do know is that you could make a DC bet, have it travel, then make a Buy bet on whatever the DC traveled to. In other words, you can do this same concept in a different way and the house is absolutely not afraid of it.

Point of 4 or 10 is the best possible scenario for a DP pass short of an immediate win. Your expectation:

(6/9 * 10) - (3/9 * 10) = $3.33~

In other words, you find yourself at a 33.33% advantage, so what you are talking is to hedge that advantage against a new bet which would be at a disadvantage. The math on the possibilities works as follows:

Don't Pass Bet Wins: +$5

Buy Bet Wins: -$0.25

(5 * 6/9) - (.25 * 3/9) = $3.25

You will notice that your net expectation went down by the expected loss that the Buy 4 bet has in the first place.

Superficially, this seems like the DP + BUY is in an advantageous situation, because it is, but the DP had an even bigger advantage prior to you making the Buy Bet. It's also important to remember that, while the DP is at an advantage NOW (which is true on its own) it's because a point was established, therefore, you overcame the only roll (Come Out) which represents a disadvantage for DP. The entire House Edge of the DP bet stems from the huge disadvantage that it's at on the CO roll.

You'll forgive me for not including the Place Bets, but they are irrelevant. The House Edge is just the House Edge, as far as those go. If the DP wins, then the Place bets lose, but you're just adding more disadvantageous bets to the advantageous situation (DP surviving CO) that you find yourself in.

Is the, "Post Come Out Advantage," greater than the Come Out disadvantage when betting DP?

When it comes to the percentage, absolutely, but that's simply because a CO of 4 or 10 (aside from just winning on the CO) is the most favorable situation for the DP bet. The DP bet ceases to have a disadvantage any time it survives the CO.

Now, does the, "Post Come Out Advantage," ameliorate the disadvantage of making the DP bet in the first place? Absolutely not. Factored into the 1.36% (bet made) House Edge and 1.4% (bet resolved) House Edge of the DP bet is the fact that a DP surviving a CO will be at a huge advantage. You have made the bet where you were expected to lose; you have survived the only disadvantageous phase that the bet has and now you are wanting to make more bets that are expected to lose---every single one of which will subtract from what would otherwise be your expected profit on the DP bet having survived the CO.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
pwcrabb
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Mission146poli2k01
September 16th, 2022 at 11:07:56 AM permalink
I do not believe the assertion of disallowed Place bets or Buy bets. I want the name of the specific casino which allegedly disallows those bets on a Box number if the same player also has a Don't Pass wager against the same number.

Cautions and condemnations from dealers and floormen regarding idiotic bet choices are not equivalent to prohibiting those choices.

If a craps machine is the culprit then so specify.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
poli2k01
poli2k01
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September 19th, 2022 at 9:56:08 AM permalink
I have not experienced this in the live craps table.

I'm referring to craps machines -> specifically Interblock craps machines do not allow you to put place/buy bets on the point number. Similarly, on interblock roulette machines, you are not allowed to cover more than 60% of the numbers with equal bet sizes. So I wondered why is that the case and think there must be some players advantage that it limits the bet altogether.

I haven't tried other brands of craps machines to determine if this is a general rule though.

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