ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 106
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July 22nd, 2021 at 6:05:48 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. Ace2: As you are probably aware, I do NOT believe in THAT HE. So here is a simple challenge for you and OnceDear, memorize that convoluted set of plays and wagers as shown above; go to a table near you; and play. If you can not memorize the above, write it down and take it to the table and try and play without everyone including the dealers screaming at you to hurry up and do something. Make sure you publish your results.


You mean my "convoluted set of plays"? Here they are:

1. Bet $12 on Don't Pass (it's $12 instead of $10 so you get full payouts on your odds bets)
2. If a point is established, bet $24 Odds.

That's it. What you thought was a "convoluted set of plays" was actually the method you use to calculate the chance of winning $120 before losing $240 (well, actually, the one I showed was for Pass instead of Don't Pass). I get about 63.95%, which is confirmed by simulation.
If you want the exact fraction,

1,799,221,451,859,411,392,620,352,012,132,548,355,134,040,126,530,914,131,601,464,917,807,207,342,234,294,538,644,220,698,261,840,385,455,760,122,526,535,772,700,717,988,699,382,211,275,931,634,623,030,613,273,598,872,411,749,895,281,193,958,103,671,895,250,276,223,240,450,796,152,035,484,707,583,150,222,088,310,021,752,737,260,613,201,600,155,521,805,551,891,223,944,449
/
2,813,846,594,494,634,252,666,723,234,726,588,117,973,476,165,313,035,355,612,057,140,889,246,174,281,959,483,170,961,642,821,766,390,157,699,043,901,542,668,987,442,226,143,011,871,814,987,496,535,046,197,703,768,593,947,961,733,909,291,244,955,698,502,604,706,778,119,192,375,402,203,834,955,161,537,479,163,325,182,621,633,683,776,742,361,062,714,137,116,033,156,128,001



Quote: tuttigym

I do not know what "formula" OnceDear" linked to you or how in earth your "variance" and "standard deviation" numbers you posted have anything to do with reality, so try this simple mathematically correct approach.

1. Do not play the PL at Come Out.
2. Wait for a point to be established, any point.
3. Put $50 each on the 5, 6, 8, & 9. That gives you 18 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose or a 3 to 1 advantage OVER the House on any given roll of the dice.
4. Best case scenario: two hits and win $100+
5. Worst case scenario: one roll 7 out lose it all.

Longer one plays, especially at a $5 table, betting at one or two units at a time, the more likely one will become frustrated. The PL with the associated FO plus place bets are bankroll killers since point conversions happen only 27% of the time according to Mr. W's estimates or very vague "probabilities."


A 3-1 advantage of winning is meaningless if your average loss is more than 3 times your average win.
If you want success rate, try betting 34 different numbers at once in roulette; 34 times out of 37/38/39, depending on the wheel, you win!

Here are the results and probabilities of each result of your bets, assuming that 6 and 8 each pay $56 for your $50 bet (if that isn't correct, then by all means tell me what the actual payout is):
ResultsProbProfit
5, then 61/24+126
5, then 71/20-80
5, then 81/24+126
5, then 91/30+140
6, then 55/114+126
6, then 75/76-94
6, then 825/456+112
6, then 95/114+126
7 first1/4-200
8, then 55/114+126
8, then 625/456+112
8, then 75/76-94
8, then 95/114+126
9, then 51/30+140
9, then 61/24+126
9, then 71/20-80
9, then 81/24+126

The average result is about -5.6491228.

You do make one valid point; you shouldn't really use a system that depends on a lot of small bets. The longer you play, the more of your money you expose to the house edge.
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Jul 22, 2021
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 615
July 23rd, 2021 at 10:16:15 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

You mean my "convoluted set of plays"? Here they are:

1. Bet $12 on Don't Pass (it's $12 instead of $10 so you get full payouts on your odds bets)
2. If a point is established, bet $24 Odds.

That's it.


What you have posted above is great. It is simple, readable, understandable, and doable. The rest of the stuff posted and below is just "noise." I do not intend to critique it because you actually answered the original inquiry with some prodding by me. My only question is: What does producing all the other "junk" (my words) do for the reader or user? It is not necessary, in my opinion. You did well and thank you.

tuttigym
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 106
  • Posts: 4954
July 23rd, 2021 at 11:50:09 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

What you have posted above is great. It is simple, readable, understandable, and doable. The rest of the stuff posted and below is just "noise." I do not intend to critique it because you actually answered the original inquiry with some prodding by me. My only question is: What does producing all the other "junk" (my words) do for the reader or user? It is not necessary, in my opinion. You did well and thank you.


What "other junk" is that? You mean the part that shows that terms like "66.67% success rate" that you threw around when mentioning your "50 on 5, 6, 8, 9, then take them down after two hits" are pretty much meaningless in terms of what you are expected to win?

Here's a system that lasts no more than two comeouts that has a better than 70% chance of making $100 profit:
1. Bet $100 on the pass line. If you win, take the $100 profit and walk.
2. If you lose, bet $200 on the pass line.
Best case: more than 70% of the time, you win $100.
Worse case: you lose both bets, but that's less than 30% of the time.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 615
July 23rd, 2021 at 12:26:18 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

What "other junk" is that? You mean the part that shows that terms like "66.67% success rate" that you threw around when mentioning your "50 on 5, 6, 8, 9, then take them down after two hits" are pretty much meaningless in terms of what you are expected to win?


No, the garbage of line after line of numbers that have no meaning to someone trying to play the game. You provided clarity of your original post so that any individual who had a mind to try it could without OVERTHINKING every little nit picky fraction of win/loss possibilities. If your goal is confusion, then you have achieved it big time. If you remember, I did NOT criticize the plan only the mind numbing and unnecessary overall approach. Is your ego so large that somehow producing line after line of numbers to "prove a point" makes you feel superior. The simplicity of the resultant "plan" gives you credibility.

tuttigym
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear 
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 48
  • Posts: 5757
July 23rd, 2021 at 12:31:51 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

No, the garbage of line after line of numbers that have no meaning to someone trying to play the game. You provided clarity of your original post so that any individual who had a mind to try it could without OVERTHINKING every little nit picky fraction of win/loss possibilities. If your goal is confusion, then you have achieved it big time. If you remember, I did NOT criticize the plan only the mind numbing and unnecessary overall approach. Is your ego so large that somehow producing line after line of numbers to "prove a point" makes you feel superior. The simplicity of the resultant "plan" gives you credibility.

tuttigym

We don't have any rules about being an ungrateful [expletive deleted]
But this post is particularly insulting, as indeed were some of your earlier ones.

Take 7 days out.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Mission146
Mission146 
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
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July 23rd, 2021 at 12:36:19 PM permalink
Darn. You were probably fine until, "Is your ego..."

Oh well. Come on over to Diversitytomorrow and hang out until you can get back over here.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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  • Posts: 1422
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 23rd, 2021 at 5:40:49 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

What "other junk" is that? You mean the part that shows that terms like "66.67% success rate" that you threw around when mentioning your "50 on 5, 6, 8, 9, then take them down after two hits" are pretty much meaningless in terms of what you are expected to win?

Here's a system that lasts no more than two comeouts that has a better than 70% chance of making $100 profit:
1. Bet $100 on the pass line. If you win, take the $100 profit and walk.
2. If you lose, bet $200 on the pass line.
Best case: more than 70% of the time, you win $100.
Worse case: you lose both bets, but that's less than 30% of the time.


Your patience and thoughtful replies to these craps questions deserve a thank you.
Thank you for your participation at this forum.

P.S. I also miss MSally's craps posts on the forum. :)

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