OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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July 22nd, 2021 at 4:50:41 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Ace2ís great analysis highlights why if your sole goal is a win/bust goal, you are better off betting bigger and making fewer bets, even if it costs you house edge on individual bets (but ion the aggregate it saves you house edge because you bet fewer times).

True enough. The house edge acts on the total of wagers placed. All those little winning bets may not cancel all those little losers. Run your bankroll through with very, few very large bets, has lower expected loss value. But the time it saves you might leave you inclined to just try 'one more hit and run' and then just one more... which might bust you.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Ace2
Ace2
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July 22nd, 2021 at 10:57:11 AM permalink
I ran a simulation in Excel and the chance of achieving the goal is around 63.7%. That's slightly higher than my Markov chain method of 62%, probably because I lowered the payout from 9.24 to 9, which also lowered the variance (higher variance generally gives a better chance of achieving a goal).

By the way, the 2X odds variance figure of 8.14 means you're laying 4 units on the 4&10, 3 units on 5&9, and 2.4 units on the 6&8, with a win on any point paying 3 total units (2 units on odds plus 1 unit on the flat bet). All my calculations are for that scenario.

If you're talking about laying 2 units for every point, then the variance is 4.99 and will be a significantly different chance of success. Though laying $10 would not be good idea on the 4,10,6 and 8 since there will be breakage. You need to lay in multiples of $3 and $6 to avoid that.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jul 22, 2021
Itís all about making that GTA
tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 22nd, 2021 at 11:35:28 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

The house edge of this ďstrategyĒ is about 2.76%, nearly double the edge of playing the PL at comeout (1.41%). If you believe in house edge


Mr. Ace2: As you are probably aware, I do NOT believe in THAT HE. So here is a simple challenge for you and OnceDear, memorize that convoluted set of plays and wagers as shown above; go to a table near you; and play. If you can not memorize the above, write it down and take it to the table and try and play without everyone including the dealers screaming at you to hurry up and do something. Make sure you publish your results.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 22nd, 2021 at 11:44:31 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

First you put the bet in binary format. We know the variance is 8.140 and the return of the DP bet is 0.9864. Using the formula: payout = variance/return + return, we get a payoff of 9.24 for 1 and a probability of winning of 0.1068.

Since it will be much easier to work with an even payoff of 9, let's use that. Keeping the return at 0.9864, this changes the probability of winning to 0.1096 and the variance to 7.905, but that shouldn't affect the answer too much.

Then set up a markov chain, starting at 40 units, with a 0.1096 chance of advancing 8 units and a .8904 chance of retreating 1 unit. Absorbing states at 0 and 60.

After about 600 iterations, the answer converges to about a 38% chance of busting and 62% of achieving your goal.


Mr.Allistah: You got that? Beyond simple, so be sure to memorize it or write it down and bring it to the tables. 600 Iterations huh? How long would that take to complete? What is an iteration, and where does one find it? 62% chance of winning? Sounds incredibly good to me. I think you should meet Mr. Ace2 and have him show you how it all works and comes together.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 22nd, 2021 at 12:02:59 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Excellent answer and with maths ability way beyond mine.
But my 'OnceDear's Rule of thumb' answer was pretty close.
Probability of success<=100/150
Probability of success<=66.7%
Remember my rule of thumb ignored the house edge, just as Tuttygym does.
with the house edge, we have...
Probability of success < 66.7%
Probability of going bust > 33.3%


Thanks for the short affirmation. Let me correct you on one thing. I do NOT ignore the HE as presented most everywhere; I discount it completely.


Quote: OnceDear

I could hear a thousand mathematicians groan with despair.
Tuttigym has no concept of house edge and this statement of his is absolutely wrong.


You must have incredible hearing. The mathematicians I know have all graduated elementary school, and like you above, affirm the 66.7% success rate against the 33.3% failure rate. Here is another potential 3 to one advantage play. It takes twice as many hits but does provide the same success rate. It is called "the Iron Cross":

No PL wager; After point establishment, any point, Place $50 each on the 5, 6, & 8 and $25 on the Field. Any four rolls without a 7 out nets a minimum of $100. Take the chips and run to the cashier.

p.s. One does NOT need any iterations on this play either.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 22nd, 2021 at 12:15:29 PM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Fine work by Ace2 above. His model with a bankroll of 40 Flat bet units, Dark Side, Lay 2x, can easily be modified to accommodate alternative scenarios


So, according to Mr.W, of those 40 flat bet units, approximately 27 will be point play hands, and of those 27 hands approximately 20 will be losers, i.e., 7 outs. So how does one win 60+% of the time? When does one play the 2x Dark side Lay? How long does this process take?

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 22nd, 2021 at 12:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

True enough. The house edge acts on the total of wagers placed. All those little winning bets may not cancel all those little losers. Run your bankroll through with very, few very large bets, has lower expected loss value. But the time it saves you might leave you inclined to just try 'one more hit and run' and then just one more... which might bust you.


It is gambling, OnceDear, gambling.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 22nd, 2021 at 12:24:50 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I ran a simulation in Excel and the chance of achieving the goal is around 63.7%. That's slightly higher than my Markov chain method of 62%, probably because I lowered the payout from 9.24 to 9, which also lowered the variance (higher variance generally gives a better chance of achieving a goal).

By the way, the 2X odds variance figure of 8.14 means you're laying 4 units on the 4&10, 3 units on 5&9, and 2.4 units on the 6&8, with a win on any point paying 3 total units (2 units on odds plus 1 unit on the flat bet). All my calculations are for that scenario.

If you're talking about laying 2 units for every point, then the variance is 4.99 and will be a significantly different chance of success. Though laying $10 would not be good idea on the 4,10,6 and 8 since there will be breakage. You need to lay in multiples of $3 and $6 to avoid that.


Ah yes, "the simulation." Mr. Ace2 the Wizard has a simulation craps game on his web site. Why don't you try your 600 iterations on that game, and try your "system" with all those "variances" and such. You know I am not a gambling person, but I just bet your play won't come close to working out as you claim. If it doesn't work out the first time, maybe you could try 10,000+ more times.

tuttigym
Ace2
Ace2
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July 22nd, 2021 at 12:32:33 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr.Allistah: You got that? Beyond simple, so be sure to memorize it or write it down and bring it to the tables. 600 Iterations huh? How long would that take to complete? What is an iteration, and where does one find it? 62% chance of winning? Sounds incredibly good to me. I think you should meet Mr. Ace2 and have him show you how it all works and comes together.

tuttigym

You just don't understand the calculations, and that's fine, but don't mock the people that do understand. Incidentally, these calculations are not difficult...really just algebra.
Itís all about making that GTA
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 22nd, 2021 at 12:51:33 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

You just don't understand the calculations, and that's fine, but don't mock the people that do understand. Incidentally, these calculations are not difficult...really just algebra.


I am not "mocking the people." I am simply asking for definitions and proof. What is claimed to be "calculations," are not reality. "Algebra" cannot be taken to the tables and tossed on the felt with every roll of the dice. Why should anyone believe your calculations are correct. As I said, play on the Mr.W craps game roll by roll and index each play and each result. I am beyond confident your actual results will NOT prove your "algebraic" calculations.

tuttigym

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