jumpingjack
Joined: Oct 3, 2019
• Posts: 7
October 3rd, 2019 at 2:22:12 PM permalink
I was at the Golden Nugget playing. Dealer asks two ladies if they want to take a chance to turn \$10 into 2k. Ladies said yes. He had them bet it on the 10.
10 hits tells them to parlay it and pay commission (now at \$30). Dice hit the 10 they parlayed it to roughly 1k and shooter 7 out

What are the odds of a shooter hitting
5-6-7 and8 10's or 4's before the shooter 7 outs

not sure if someone can simulate this or not and see how many times it hits before a 1k bankroll is depleted (\$10 starting bet)

Thanks for any help
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
October 3rd, 2019 at 2:49:34 PM permalink
edit: I'm retarded

1. 33.33%
2. 11.11%
3. 3.70%
4. 1.23%
5. 0.411%
6. 0.137%
7. 0.0457%
8. 0.0152%

If you are going to use this strategy (it's certainly not +EV), but if vig is paid on a win then IMO just do this --

Bet \$25, when it hits drop \$6 and power press to \$80.
When that hits, drop \$14 and power press to \$250.
When that hits, you can drop \$12 and parlay to \$750 // or just collect the \$488 profit // or just press to \$500.
cowboy
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
• Posts: 165
October 3rd, 2019 at 2:52:26 PM permalink
Quote: jumpingjack

What are the odds of a shooter hitting
5-6-7 and8 10's or 4's before the shooter 7 outs

The first 7 would not matter would it? Odds would be as though the come-out was a 4 or 10.

Seems its a 2 to 1 proposition for a 10 before a 7 so 8 in a a row would be 1 in 256.
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
• Posts: 3321
October 3rd, 2019 at 6:04:49 PM permalink
Quote: cowboy

The first 7 would not matter would it? Odds would be as though the come-out was a 4 or 10.

Seems its a 2 to 1 proposition for a 10 before a 7 so 8 in a a row would be 1 in 256.

haha, why do people answer questions if they don't know the answer?

1/(1/3)^8 = 6,560 to 1 for eight 10s before a 7.
jumpingjack
Joined: Oct 3, 2019
• Posts: 7
October 4th, 2019 at 7:42:23 AM permalink
Quote: RS

edit: I'm retarded

1. 33.33%
2. 11.11%
3. 3.70%
4. 1.23%
5. 0.411%
6. 0.137%
7. 0.0457%
8. 0.0152%

If you are going to use this strategy (it's certainly not +EV), but if vig is paid on a win then IMO just do this --

Bet \$25, when it hits drop \$6 and power press to \$80.
When that hits, drop \$14 and power press to \$250.
When that hits, you can drop \$12 and parlay to \$750 // or just collect the \$488 profit // or just press to \$500.

Thank you.

I was playing it last night at a table near Louisville. Did not do this and in hindsight should have. Started with \$10 went to 25 and increased by 25 after each hit. When the shooter finally threw a 7 before making the point I was at 225. Guy actually only made one point was just throwing number after number. He hit that bonus bet they have as well (all, Tall, small), went back and hit the tall of the bonus again and was a 2 short of hitting it a 2nd time. I always throw a few bucks on that bonus and after hearing that I started wonder which one would be the better flyer bet. I realize it is a - EV bet but could be fun.

Not sure I could press it that far. I would be tempted to take money back on the 3rd it and maybe just press half or something, then next press a quarter etc. going forward
jumpingjack
Joined: Oct 3, 2019
• Posts: 7
October 4th, 2019 at 7:44:08 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

haha, why do people answer questions if they don't know the answer?

1/(1/3)^8 = 6,560 to 1 for eight 10s before a 7.

Thank You
jumpingjack
Joined: Oct 3, 2019
• Posts: 7
October 4th, 2019 at 7:45:41 AM permalink
@ cowboy thanks 7 does not matter on any comeout roll only after the point is established as the bet would not be working.
jumpingjack
Joined: Oct 3, 2019
• Posts: 7
October 4th, 2019 at 7:51:55 AM permalink
using this formula

five 10's before a 7 would be 243-1
six would be 729-1
seven would be 2187-1
eight would be 6561-1
nine would be 19,683-1
ten would be 59,049-1

I assume this accounts for the 7 being irrelevant on the come-out roll?
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
Thanks for this post from:
October 4th, 2019 at 12:35:49 PM permalink
Quote: jumpingjack

not sure if someone can simulate this or not and see how many times it hits before a 1k bankroll is depleted (\$10 starting bet)

I got 36%
chance of winning \$2k system before losing \$1k stake (or lower than \$10 bankroll)

average gain given a win (winning \$2k): \$1508
Buy 10 bet NOT working on the come out roll and vig paid on a win only

I would think starting with \$20 or \$25 would be successful more than 36% of the time.
starting at \$20 was at 29% and \$25 was a bit higher at 37%

"see how many times it hits before a 1k bankroll is depleted"
I would have to change the code some more for that
the last run: playing 10k sessions resulted in a net loss of about \$776,746
Last edited by: 7craps on Oct 4, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010