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mwz524
mwz524
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August 13th, 2019 at 1:03:36 PM permalink
Let me preface this by saying, I understand if you want to be the shooter you MUST place a bet on the pass or don't pass line:

I normally play on $25 tables.

The pass line is an even money bet. Bet $25 to win $25 on a 7 or 11 (8 ways to roll those numbers) loose on a 2, 3 or 12 (4 ways to roll) the other 24 rolls set the point.

While you are getting better odds on the come out you are only getting paid even money on the established point. If the point is a 4 or 10 you are getting 1:1 when you should be getting 9:5 (place bet odds).

Yes you get the option to add odds to the pass line and get paid true odds on that portion of your bet, but you don't get to pick the number that you get odds on, the come out roll picks that number randomly for you.

Its almost like the pass line, while tempting for 1 roll, is akin to a "buy in" to get true odds on 1 random number.

Wouldn't you be better off taking the pass line bet and any odds you would have placed and spreading it out as part of a place bet strategy?
sabre
sabre
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August 13th, 2019 at 1:16:15 PM permalink
Place bets have higher house edge than pass line plus odds. So no.
Mission146
Mission146
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odiousgambit
August 13th, 2019 at 1:17:27 PM permalink
Quote: mwz524



Wouldn't you be better off taking the pass line bet and any odds you would have placed and spreading it out as part of a place bet strategy?



I guess it depends on what you mean by, "Better off."

If you mean a better expected value, then no, because a Pass Line bet has a lower house edge than any of the Place Bets. The odds bet has no house edge at all.
Vultures can't be choosers.
mwz524
mwz524
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August 13th, 2019 at 1:37:59 PM permalink
When you calculate the house edge are you calculating it base don the come out roll or on the total of all rolls?

Lets take a $25 pass line bet and $50 odds on a point of 4 - a winner would pay $100 odds win plus $25 pass line = $125

$75 place bet on the 4 pays 9 to 5 or $135. the difference is the come out roll where you have a 22% chance to win even money but also an 11% chance of loosing your bet. (i think i figured the stats correctly 8/36 = 22.2 and 4/36 = 11.1)
Mission146
Mission146
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odiousgambit
August 13th, 2019 at 1:49:02 PM permalink
Quote: mwz524

When you calculate the house edge are you calculating it base don the come out roll or on the total of all rolls?

Lets take a $25 pass line bet and $50 odds on a point of 4 - a winner would pay $100 odds win plus $25 pass line = $125

$75 place bet on the 4 pays 9 to 5 or $135. the difference is the come out roll where you have a 22% chance to win even money but also an 11% chance of loosing your bet. (i think i figured the stats correctly 8/36 = 22.2 and 4/36 = 11.1)



The first thing that we should clear up is that the Pass Line bet and the Odds bets are completely separate bets. It's true that you must make a Line bet in order to make an Odds Bet, but making a Line Bet does not require that you make an odds bet.

When the house edge for the Pass Line is calculated, it is calculated based on all possibilities. Fortunately for me, I recently did this on a blog post response for the Don't Pass, so I will copy that here. The Pass bet is the same concept:

Quote:

Come Out + Point Results and Outcomes:

Come Outs 2 & 3 = Automatic Win (3/36) = 0.08333333333

Come Outs 4 & 10, Point Missed, Win: (6/36) * (6/9) = 0.11111111111

Come Outs 5 & 9, Point Missed, Win: (8/36) * (6/10) = 0.13333333333

Come Outs 6 & 8, Point Missed, Win: (10/36) * (6/11) = 0.15151515151

Come Out 12, Push = 0

Come Outs 7 & 11, Loss: (8/36) = - 0.222222222

Come Outs 4 & 10, Point Made, Loss - (6/36) * (3/9) = -0.05555555555

Come Outs 5 & 9, Point Made, Loss = - (8/36) * (4/10) = -0.08888888888

Come Outs 6 & 8, Point Made, Loss = (10/36) * (5/11) = -0.12626262626

Add them together: (0.08333333333 + 0.11111111111 + 0.13333333333 + 0.15151515151) - (0.222222222 + 0.05555555555 + 0.08888888888 + 0.12626262626) = -0.01363636341



You can do the same thing with the Pass Line bet, if you wish, I'm not going to type it all out. Like I said, the general concept and how you can do it remains the same.

Anyway, if you do this for the Pass Line bets and you do it for the Place Bets, then you will come to see that the Pass Line bet has a lower house edge assuming you play any Place Bet to resolution.

The difference with Place Bets is some people look at the house edge on a, "Per roll," basis, which is also detailed on the WizardofOdds site. Pass Line bets are not looked at this way because you have no choice but to leave them up until they resolve. Most people make a Place Bet with the plan to leave it up until it resolves, though.
Vultures can't be choosers.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 13th, 2019 at 3:04:51 PM permalink
Quote: mwz524

When you calculate the house edge are you calculating it base don the come out roll or on the total of all rolls?

Lets take a $25 pass line bet and $50 odds on a point of 4 - a winner would pay $100 odds win plus $25 pass line = $125

$75 place bet on the 4 pays 9 to 5 or $135. the difference is the come out roll where you have a 22% chance to win even money but also an 11% chance of loosing your bet. (i think i figured the stats correctly 8/36 = 22.2 and 4/36 = 11.1)

good for you for pondering all this, but everyone else who has done it has come to a very simple conclusion: at the moment you put your bets down, there is an inescapable house edge, and it is lower for the line bets than the place bets or buy bets. The free odds bets can't be made without first making line bets

In my working days I was often accused of trying to re-invent the wheel, which seems to be what you are doing here. So I sympathize, and it can be a good exercise, but you need to realize what you are doing.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
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Mission146
August 13th, 2019 at 3:28:01 PM permalink
Mission146 is entirely correct.

Place bets left at risk for only a single toss, then taken down immediately regardless of toss outcome, have very low House Advantages. Those H.A. are detailed by the Wizard in his Per Roll analyses.

Place bets left at risk only until resolution, then taken down immediately if they have won, have House Advantages that are greater than the H.A. for Pass and Don't Pass.

Each Place bet left at risk until it eventually loses has a House Advantage that is horrendous. Sadly, this is the usual plan. Rarely taken into account by players of Place bets, that H.A. can be calculated using the sum of the infinite series of values of possible future wins by a Place bet. Because it will have lost, at infinity the Place bet itself has a value of zero.
DeMango
DeMango
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Mission146
August 13th, 2019 at 4:20:33 PM permalink
Surprised no one mentioned a $75 bet on the 4 pays $150 less $3 vig
Mission146
Mission146
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August 13th, 2019 at 4:29:05 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Surprised no one mentioned a $75 bet on the 4 pays $150 less $3 vig



(147 * 3/9) - (75 * 6/9) = -1

-1/75 = -.0133333 or 1.33% House Edge

Better than the Pass Line, nice. At least, per bet resolved. I'm not sure which would be better per roll given x average of rolls for the pass line to resolve, but still good point.
Vultures can't be choosers.
DeMango
DeMango
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Mission146
August 13th, 2019 at 8:09:41 PM permalink
A shame most if not all casinos charge vig upfront on crapless buys on extreme numbers. A $75 eleven paid $222 and a $75 twelve paid $447. But in these same casinos, bought traditional outside numbers, are still vig on win.

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