Taking odds in craps

Quote: MrVegas

The Wizard’s strategy for craps recommends playing pass/come or don’t pass/don’t come with odds. I play the pass line as to avoid the dark side. I understand odds have no house edge. Therefore the EV is zero. Over the long run those bets break even. So what’s the point in betting them? They don’t count toward your minimum wager for rating purposes. The Wizard has a chart showing how taking odds lowers the house edge on what I assume he means your total bet after taking odds.

Example: pass line has a 1.41% house edge but with 10x odds it has a .18% house edge.

This is where I’m confused by the Wizard’s advice. If I bet $10 on the on the pass line only, my theoretical loss is 1.41% of $10 = $0.141, about 14 cents. If I take 10x odds in addition to my pass line bet, my total wager is $110. My theoretical loss would be 0.18% of $110 = $0.198, about 20 cents. I would lose more money over the long run.

I wouldn’t think the odds bets would make any difference what so ever if it pays true odds and has no house edge. Why does the Wizard recommend taking odds and why do my calculations show that I would lose more money taking odds?

Quote: MrVegas

The Wizard’s strategy for craps recommends playing pass/come or don’t pass/don’t come with odds. I play the pass line as to avoid the dark side. I understand odds have no house edge. Therefore the EV is zero. Over the long run those bets break even. So what’s the point in betting them? They don’t count toward your minimum wager for rating purposes. The Wizard has a chart showing how taking odds lowers the house edge on what I assume he means your total bet after taking odds.

Example: pass line has a 1.41% house edge but with 10x odds it has a .18% house edge.

This is where I’m confused by the Wizard’s advice. If I bet $10 on the on the pass line only, my theoretical loss is 1.41% of $10 = $0.141, about 14 cents. If I take 10x odds in addition to my pass line bet, my total wager is $110. My theoretical loss would be 0.18% of $110 = $0.198, about 20 cents. I would lose more money over the long run.

I wouldn’t think the odds bets would make any difference what so ever if it pays true odds and has no house edge. Why does the Wizard recommend taking odds and why do my calculations show that I would lose more money taking odds?

Quote: MrVegas

There is no reason to recommend odds. Mathematically is makes no difference. The advice should be to play the pass/come or don’t pass/don’t come and playing odds or not makes no difference. The best advice mathmatically is to play the don’t pass/don’t come but we all know that will make you public enemy number 1 at the table. Also, slow the game down as much as you can.

Quote: Mission146

1st Paragraph: There are some houses that at least claim to factor odds into your rating in some way. I assume this varies from casino to casino and would not assume that it is universally not the case.

The Rest As you have already stipulated, the Odds bet has no house edge. In the case of what you're discussing, you are either betting the $10 on the Pass Line and Taking $100 in odds, or you are betting $10 on the Pass Line and the bet is being resolved on the first roll. In any case, the only amount that comes with any sort of expected loss is the $10 bet on the Pass Line, so let's figure out our average total wager:

(10 * 12/36) + (110 * 24/36) = 76.6666666667

The average total wager is $76.6666666667, so now the next thing that we want to do is divide our expected loss of 14.1 pennies by this amount:

0.141/76.666666667 = 0.00183913043

Thus, we get a combined House Edge of 0.183913043%, as you have already determined.

However, if we isolate only those situations in which you are betting $110 in total, same expected loss:

.141/110 = 0.00128181818

Thus, you could say that your combined House Edge when you do in fact Take Odds is 0.128181818%

So, that's what it comes down to, you don't always bet the $110, so you would not divide the expected loss by 110.

Quote: Mission146

I consider your position debatable.

The first thing that needs to be considered is that there is no Pass Line + Odds bet, there is a Pass Line bet and there is an Odds bet, but they are two separate bets. When you bet the Pass Line, you are betting that the initial roll will be a 7 or 11, or in the alternative, that your initial roll will be a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 and that said number will repeat before a seven comes up. With the Odds bet, all you're doing is betting that a particular number will show up before the seven.

You knew that of course, but I wanted to fully flesh it out to illustrate that they are separate bets. The only common thread between the two bets is that you must make the Pass Line bet (house edge) to get the privilege of making the zero house edge Odds bet...unless you're permitted to piggyback Odds with a different player.

Anyway, if you make a $10 Pass Line bet and take $100 in odds (let's assume a point number for simplicity) then your expected loss is 0.141 and your exposure is $110. If you make eleven separate $10 Pass Line bets, then your exposure ($110) is the same, but your expected loss on those bets is now $1.41.

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Another way of looking at it is let's say you had a bankroll of $500 and you set a goal to either double it or go El Busto. Would you double it more often betting the $10 and Taking Max Odds whenever possible, or would you double it more often flat betting $10?

Now, if your primary objective is just to play as long as possible, (or until bored) then that makes a very good case for just playing the Pass Line (or Don't Pass). However, it doesn't change the fact that the combined House Edge is less for total dollars exposed by Taking Odds.

I guess Wizard's advice assumes the person is there wanting to gamble, given the choice between no house edge and a house edge, the player would do well to take the former as often as possible and for as much as possible.

Myself, I don't look at it either way, to be honest. I just consider them strictly as separate bets. Combined edge is meaningless to me. One bet has a house edge of 1.41%, the other, 0%.

Quote: MrVegas

I wouldn’t think the odds bets would make any difference what so ever if it pays true odds and has no house edge. Why does the Wizard recommend taking odds and why do my calculations show that I would lose more money taking odds?

Quote: 7craps

Your thinking is flawed because
a $10 pass line bet with 0 odds and the $10 pass line bet with 10X odds is NOT a fair comparison.
This has been gone over zillions of times.
this is an apples to oranges comparison

they both have a way different average bet and a way different handle.

one only $10,
the other (1/3)*$10 + (2/3)*$110 = $76 2/3
so after 100,000 resolved wagers one has wagered just $1 million
while one has wagered around $7,666,667

for an equal EV.
the odds wager also gives the player the best chance to be even or ahead after many wagers.
nice try

Quote: TinMan

If you're not taking max odds, but you are betting literally anything else at the table, then you're giving up EV. If placing that other bet is worth the lost EV to you, then go for it. For me, I see no reason to pass up max odds and then place the same money on a negative expectation field bet/horn/hard way/whatever.

The main value of odds bets to me is it makes the game more interesting now that the amount of money at stake is meaningful. If were just flat betting $5 on the PL, then I'd get bored relatively quickly. It's just not significant enough to make the result of any roll all that interesting. But putting $25 or $50 behind, and now the game is much more fun (or painful), all for no additional added EV cost.

Quote: MrVegas

Betting $10 on the pass line and taking 10x odds for a total bet of $110 is NOT is not better than betting $10 on the pass line.

Quote: Tanko

Sure it is.

What other bet allows you to bet more, without increasing your expected loss?

Quote: odiousgambit

Regarding the thinking of Mr. Vegas generally:

[edited]

Yes and no.

Without saying you are "wrong" about your thinking in its entirety , I do think many of us really wonder if you really do get the big picture. I think it mostly revolves around the issue of variance, and experiencing variance. It can be hard to explain, and [if you ask me] hard to put into mathematical language.

With craps, the pass line bet or the don't pass line bet itself, standing alone, has mind-numbingly low variance. If you think you will enjoy just playing that, with no other action, there just isn't any doubt in my mind you'd instead move on to other betting, if not free odds, then place bets or something ... or you'd just quit playing Craps.

Without some variance, in any game with negative expectation, you lose each bet [as you would if you bet each number in roulette]. And unfortunately, if you only have a little variance, you only have a little deviation from losing each set of bets [though of course sometimes you'd win a session]. I can say I have never seen a Craps player who wasn't an absolute newbie ever just stick to making the pass or don't pass bet - this just does not happen. You will have to decide what else you are going to bet on or you will give up the game.

Quote: FleaStiff

Sweat the money joints and monopoly casinos such as cruise ships tend to be stingy about the odds bet so there must be some benefit to the player even though it can indeed lose,

you go thru your bankroll faster but if you hit a monster roll, man is it fun!

Quote: DeMango

Those casinos who have low odds do it merely to lower their variance, there is no benefit to the player, just more variance. A $10 better is expected to lose 14 cents, no odds or 100X odds.

Quote: MrVegas

Your first sentence is incorrect. You are not giving up any EV. The odds bet is a separate bet. The odds bet has a house edge of 0%. Your EV for all odds bets is $0.

Quote: FleaStiff

Sweat the money joints and monopoly casinos such as cruise ships tend to be stingy about the odds bet so there must be some benefit to the player even though it can indeed lose,

Quote: TinMan

My first sentence is absolutely correct. I said "If you're not taking max odds, but you are betting literally anything else at the table, then you're giving up EV." The EV on the odds is 0%. The EV on any other bet you might put your money on is some number >0%. Think of it this way--you've put down a $10 pass line bet and you've got $100 additional dollars you want to bet. You're deciding between two options. The table you're playing at allows 10x odds. Option 1: You could put that $100 on the odds for an expected loss of $100 x 0.0000 = $0. Or Option 2: you could, for example, take that $100 and put it on the field for an expected loss of $100 x 0.0556 = $5.56. Option 2 (field bet) is $5.56 worse than Option 1 (putting the $100 on the odds). This holds true for any other bet you might make at the table. Unless you find it more enjoyable/exciting/whatever to justify the cost, it doesn't make sense to pass up taking max odds and then take that some money that could have gone on odds and put it on another bet at the table.

Quote: MrVegas

Don’t bet those field bets and put the $100 in your pocket and then calculate you’re EV. If you’re EV improved then it had nothing to do with the odds bets because you haven’t made any. Now that you’ve got your new EV adding odds wont change it. That’s what’s happening when you move that money from the field to the odds. The EV improves but not because of the odds. It improves because you removed the field bet. We are talking about two different things here. You’re talking about someone who absolutely has to bet X amount of dollars and it’s cheaper to do a table min pass line bet and put the rest on odds. I agree. I’ve said that several times in this thread. I’m talking about why would someone give the advice to play the pass/don’t pass or come/don’t come and take full odds when it makes no difference. Or at least I thought it made no difference because I was assuming our pass line bet was constant and we would be putting more money on the table to take the odds. Then I made this thread and got other people’s perspective on it where they assumed the money on the table was constant and how you bet it varied. That was what I wanted to know. Now I know and you know as well now the other perspective.

Quote: odiousgambit

Good advice or bad advice? This boils down to

*is the advice to add the odds bet ?

or

*is the advice to change the bet from a bet with a house edge to the odds bet?

Quote: odiousgambit

Good advice or bad advice? This boils down to

*is the advice to add the odds bet ?

or

*is the advice to change the bet from a bet with a house edge to the odds bet?

Quote: unJon

This is only true if your pass line bet is at the table minimum and at the lowest minimum table at the casino. If you are at a $5 min table and betting $10 PL then you should instead do $5PL and $5 odds.* Likewise if you are betting $25 PL at a $25 min table, but the casino also has a $10 min table, then you should move to the $10 min table and bet $10PL with $15 odds.**

*stretch to $6 if point is 5 or 9.

**stretch to $16 if the point is 5 or 9.

Quote: unJon

I don’t tend to see many people just betting minimum pass line at the smallest min table at the casino.

Quote: MrVegas

That has nothing to with it. That’s psychology. We are talking about math. I’m having trouble laying this thread to rest because people keep commenting the exact same thing about how a gambler trying to get a lot of action on the table should take odds.

Quote: unJon

This post is silly. We are both talking about math and I understand the tautological and uninteresting math point you are making. My point is also math based and practical. I can lower the -EV of the way you play craps unless you play minimum PL at the lowest denom table.

If you want to put the thread to rest, quit responding.

But telling people that the odds bet is meaningless from a tautological math point of view, on a website dedicated to helping gamblers play games in a way that minimizes -EV is misleading and unhelpful.

Quote: MrVegas

Ok good. We agree on the math. Your last paragraph wasn’t helpful though. I didn’t come here to tell people that. I came here to ask why is it better to play the line with full odds than to play only the line because it was my understanding that the odds had no edge and therefore made no difference. I now understand the two perspectives. So it was helpful to me and I learned exactly what I wanted to learn.