MrVegas
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 12:17:40 PM permalink
The Wizardís strategy for craps recommends playing pass/come or donít pass/donít come with odds. I play the pass line as to avoid the dark side. I understand odds have no house edge. Therefore the EV is zero. Over the long run those bets break even. So whatís the point in betting them? They donít count toward your minimum wager for rating purposes. The Wizard has a chart showing how taking odds lowers the house edge on what I assume he means your total bet after taking odds.

Example: pass line has a 1.41% house edge but with 10x odds it has a .18% house edge.

This is where Iím confused by the Wizardís advice. If I bet $10 on the on the pass line only, my theoretical loss is 1.41% of $10 = $0.141, about 14 cents. If I take 10x odds in addition to my pass line bet, my total wager is $110. My theoretical loss would be 0.18% of $110 = $0.198, about 20 cents. I would lose more money over the long run.

I wouldnít think the odds bets would make any difference what so ever if it pays true odds and has no house edge. Why does the Wizard recommend taking odds and why do my calculations show that I would lose more money taking odds?
SkittleCar1
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April 5th, 2019 at 12:25:36 PM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

The Wizardís strategy for craps recommends playing pass/come or donít pass/donít come with odds. I play the pass line as to avoid the dark side. I understand odds have no house edge. Therefore the EV is zero. Over the long run those bets break even. So whatís the point in betting them? They donít count toward your minimum wager for rating purposes. The Wizard has a chart showing how taking odds lowers the house edge on what I assume he means your total bet after taking odds.

Example: pass line has a 1.41% house edge but with 10x odds it has a .18% house edge.

This is where Iím confused by the Wizardís advice. If I bet $10 on the on the pass line only, my theoretical loss is 1.41% of $10 = $0.141, about 14 cents. If I take 10x odds in addition to my pass line bet, my total wager is $110. My theoretical loss would be 0.18% of $110 = $0.198, about 20 cents. I would lose more money over the long run.

I wouldnít think the odds bets would make any difference what so ever if it pays true odds and has no house edge. Why does the Wizard recommend taking odds and why do my calculations show that I would lose more money taking odds?



1.41%
0.18%
odiousgambit
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April 5th, 2019 at 12:27:31 PM permalink
0.18% of $110 is not how it is figured, it comes down to your average bet, not your max bet
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/

as to why bet the odds, the simple answer is this:

if you are a player who wants to bet more than $10 , you can add a bet without a house edge to get more in action

if you are a player who is happy with $10, it is fairly pointless to add the free odds. However, there is another way to approach this and still play free odds
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 12:42:54 PM permalink
Thanks. So is this correct.......With 10x odds for example, the average bet multiplied by the house edge, average bet x 0.18%, equals the same as pass line bet x 1.41%? Assuming you are always betting the same amount on the pass line in both scenarios and taking max odds when taking odds.

My thought is I am right at my EV for odds before I ever place the bet. I donít want to find myself a standard deviation or two low.
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 1:32:30 PM permalink
There is no reason to recommend odds. Mathematically is makes no difference. The advice should be to play the pass/come or donít pass/donít come and playing odds or not makes no difference. The best advice mathmatically is to play the donít pass/donít come but we all know that will make you public enemy number 1 at the table. Also, slow the game down as much as you can.
RS
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April 5th, 2019 at 2:17:22 PM permalink
Odds are a free way to get action down. Free, as in, no house edge. If youíre already playing craps, you probably already want to get action on the table, in which case youíre better off taking a bet with no HE than some other bet with a HE.

But it obviously depends on what you want to do. Betting $10 on the pass line, youíll lose the same amount either way (EV).
Mission146
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April 5th, 2019 at 2:52:59 PM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

The Wizardís strategy for craps recommends playing pass/come or donít pass/donít come with odds. I play the pass line as to avoid the dark side. I understand odds have no house edge. Therefore the EV is zero. Over the long run those bets break even. So whatís the point in betting them? They donít count toward your minimum wager for rating purposes. The Wizard has a chart showing how taking odds lowers the house edge on what I assume he means your total bet after taking odds.

Example: pass line has a 1.41% house edge but with 10x odds it has a .18% house edge.

This is where Iím confused by the Wizardís advice. If I bet $10 on the on the pass line only, my theoretical loss is 1.41% of $10 = $0.141, about 14 cents. If I take 10x odds in addition to my pass line bet, my total wager is $110. My theoretical loss would be 0.18% of $110 = $0.198, about 20 cents. I would lose more money over the long run.

I wouldnít think the odds bets would make any difference what so ever if it pays true odds and has no house edge. Why does the Wizard recommend taking odds and why do my calculations show that I would lose more money taking odds?



1st Paragraph: There are some houses that at least claim to factor odds into your rating in some way. I assume this varies from casino to casino and would not assume that it is universally not the case.

The Rest As you have already stipulated, the Odds bet has no house edge. In the case of what you're discussing, you are either betting the $10 on the Pass Line and Taking $100 in odds, or you are betting $10 on the Pass Line and the bet is being resolved on the first roll. In any case, the only amount that comes with any sort of expected loss is the $10 bet on the Pass Line, so let's figure out our average total wager:

(10 * 12/36) + (110 * 24/36) = 76.6666666667

The average total wager is $76.6666666667, so now the next thing that we want to do is divide our expected loss of 14.1 pennies by this amount:

0.141/76.666666667 = 0.00183913043

Thus, we get a combined House Edge of 0.183913043%, as you have already determined.

However, if we isolate only those situations in which you are betting $110 in total, same expected loss:

.141/110 = 0.00128181818

Thus, you could say that your combined House Edge when you do in fact Take Odds is 0.128181818%

So, that's what it comes down to, you don't always bet the $110, so you would not divide the expected loss by 110.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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April 5th, 2019 at 3:14:50 PM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

There is no reason to recommend odds. Mathematically is makes no difference. The advice should be to play the pass/come or donít pass/donít come and playing odds or not makes no difference. The best advice mathmatically is to play the donít pass/donít come but we all know that will make you public enemy number 1 at the table. Also, slow the game down as much as you can.



I consider your position debatable.

The first thing that needs to be considered is that there is no Pass Line + Odds bet, there is a Pass Line bet and there is an Odds bet, but they are two separate bets. When you bet the Pass Line, you are betting that the initial roll will be a 7 or 11, or in the alternative, that your initial roll will be a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 and that said number will repeat before a seven comes up. With the Odds bet, all you're doing is betting that a particular number will show up before the seven.

You knew that of course, but I wanted to fully flesh it out to illustrate that they are separate bets. The only common thread between the two bets is that you must make the Pass Line bet (house edge) to get the privilege of making the zero house edge Odds bet...unless you're permitted to piggyback Odds with a different player.

Anyway, if you make a $10 Pass Line bet and take $100 in odds (let's assume a point number for simplicity) then your expected loss is 0.141 and your exposure is $110. If you make eleven separate $10 Pass Line bets, then your exposure ($110) is the same, but your expected loss on those bets is now $1.41.

---

Another way of looking at it is let's say you had a bankroll of $500 and you set a goal to either double it or go El Busto. Would you double it more often betting the $10 and Taking Max Odds whenever possible, or would you double it more often flat betting $10?

Now, if your primary objective is just to play as long as possible, (or until bored) then that makes a very good case for just playing the Pass Line (or Don't Pass). However, it doesn't change the fact that the combined House Edge is less for total dollars exposed by Taking Odds.

I guess Wizard's advice assumes the person is there wanting to gamble, given the choice between no house edge and a house edge, the player would do well to take the former as often as possible and for as much as possible.

Myself, I don't look at it either way, to be honest. I just consider them strictly as separate bets. Combined edge is meaningless to me. One bet has a house edge of 1.41%, the other, 0%.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 3:15:17 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

1st Paragraph: There are some houses that at least claim to factor odds into your rating in some way. I assume this varies from casino to casino and would not assume that it is universally not the case.

The Rest As you have already stipulated, the Odds bet has no house edge. In the case of what you're discussing, you are either betting the $10 on the Pass Line and Taking $100 in odds, or you are betting $10 on the Pass Line and the bet is being resolved on the first roll. In any case, the only amount that comes with any sort of expected loss is the $10 bet on the Pass Line, so let's figure out our average total wager:

(10 * 12/36) + (110 * 24/36) = 76.6666666667

The average total wager is $76.6666666667, so now the next thing that we want to do is divide our expected loss of 14.1 pennies by this amount:

0.141/76.666666667 = 0.00183913043

Thus, we get a combined House Edge of 0.183913043%, as you have already determined.

However, if we isolate only those situations in which you are betting $110 in total, same expected loss:

.141/110 = 0.00128181818

Thus, you could say that your combined House Edge when you do in fact Take Odds is 0.128181818%

So, that's what it comes down to, you don't always bet the $110, so you would not divide the expected loss by 110.



Thanks! Thatís exactly what I thought. It makes no difference what so ever whether or not you take odds unless it is factored into your avaerage bet for player rating.
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 4:45:53 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I consider your position debatable.

The first thing that needs to be considered is that there is no Pass Line + Odds bet, there is a Pass Line bet and there is an Odds bet, but they are two separate bets. When you bet the Pass Line, you are betting that the initial roll will be a 7 or 11, or in the alternative, that your initial roll will be a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 and that said number will repeat before a seven comes up. With the Odds bet, all you're doing is betting that a particular number will show up before the seven.

You knew that of course, but I wanted to fully flesh it out to illustrate that they are separate bets. The only common thread between the two bets is that you must make the Pass Line bet (house edge) to get the privilege of making the zero house edge Odds bet...unless you're permitted to piggyback Odds with a different player.

Anyway, if you make a $10 Pass Line bet and take $100 in odds (let's assume a point number for simplicity) then your expected loss is 0.141 and your exposure is $110. If you make eleven separate $10 Pass Line bets, then your exposure ($110) is the same, but your expected loss on those bets is now $1.41.

---

Another way of looking at it is let's say you had a bankroll of $500 and you set a goal to either double it or go El Busto. Would you double it more often betting the $10 and Taking Max Odds whenever possible, or would you double it more often flat betting $10?

Now, if your primary objective is just to play as long as possible, (or until bored) then that makes a very good case for just playing the Pass Line (or Don't Pass). However, it doesn't change the fact that the combined House Edge is less for total dollars exposed by Taking Odds.

I guess Wizard's advice assumes the person is there wanting to gamble, given the choice between no house edge and a house edge, the player would do well to take the former as often as possible and for as much as possible.

Myself, I don't look at it either way, to be honest. I just consider them strictly as separate bets. Combined edge is meaningless to me. One bet has a house edge of 1.41%, the other, 0%.



Thanks for the great explanation. Your last sentence is exactly how I look at it too. I like your explanation of trying to double a $500 bankroll. Thatís a good scenario where you might want to take odds.

I just bought Gambling 102 the other day. Iím really enjoying it. Iím backing it up with the website when I want more detail. Youíll probably see me posting on the boards as I work my way through the book. I skipped ahead to the craps section because of a debate I had with a gambler.
odiousgambit
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April 5th, 2019 at 5:17:42 PM permalink
Here's what I see all the time:

a player hears that it is good to take the odds. He was putting X amount in action each shooter before he heard that, and now, buying into it, he puts X + the odds in action, betting more than he did before. This is counter to the truism "the odds do not help you win more money" - yet this is just what this very typical player is hoping.

I hope at least sometimes it is this instead:

a player was betting all kinds of bets, including middle table bets, to get the action he needs. He finally learns there is a bet with no house edge, the free odds. Instead of those high house edge bets, he now takes the free odds instead. His total action, in fact, is now about the same or possibly less,with the negative expected value of each hand much decreased. One hopes.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
7craps
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April 5th, 2019 at 6:01:40 PM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

I wouldnít think the odds bets would make any difference what so ever if it pays true odds and has no house edge. Why does the Wizard recommend taking odds and why do my calculations show that I would lose more money taking odds?

Your thinking is flawed because
a $10 pass line bet with 0 odds and the $10 pass line bet with 10X odds is NOT a fair comparison.
This has been gone over zillions of times.
this is an apples to oranges comparison

they both have a way different average bet and a way different handle.

one only $10,
the other (1/3)*$10 + (2/3)*$110 = $76 2/3
so after 100,000 resolved wagers one has wagered just $1 million
while one has wagered around $7,666,667

for an equal EV.
the odds wager also gives the player the best chance to be even or ahead after many wagers.
nice try
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 6:30:28 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Your thinking is flawed because
a $10 pass line bet with 0 odds and the $10 pass line bet with 10X odds is NOT a fair comparison.
This has been gone over zillions of times.
this is an apples to oranges comparison

they both have a way different average bet and a way different handle.

one only $10,
the other (1/3)*$10 + (2/3)*$110 = $76 2/3
so after 100,000 resolved wagers one has wagered just $1 million
while one has wagered around $7,666,667

for an equal EV.
the odds wager also gives the player the best chance to be even or ahead after many wagers.
nice try



And yet they both have the exact same EV. Thatís my point. Your statement about odds gives the player the best chance to be even or ahead after many wagers is flawed. Itís a coin toss at 50/50. You could be off your EV in either direction, positive or negative.
TinMan
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April 5th, 2019 at 7:51:11 PM permalink
If you're not taking max odds, but you are betting literally anything else at the table, then you're giving up EV. If placing that other bet is worth the lost EV to you, then go for it. For me, I see no reason to pass up max odds and then place the same money on a negative expectation field bet/horn/hard way/whatever.

The main value of odds bets to me is it makes the game more interesting now that the amount of money at stake is meaningful. If were just flat betting $5 on the PL, then I'd get bored relatively quickly. It's just not significant enough to make the result of any roll all that interesting. But putting $25 or $50 behind, and now the game is much more fun (or painful), all for no additional added EV cost.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 8:24:54 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

If you're not taking max odds, but you are betting literally anything else at the table, then you're giving up EV. If placing that other bet is worth the lost EV to you, then go for it. For me, I see no reason to pass up max odds and then place the same money on a negative expectation field bet/horn/hard way/whatever.

The main value of odds bets to me is it makes the game more interesting now that the amount of money at stake is meaningful. If were just flat betting $5 on the PL, then I'd get bored relatively quickly. It's just not significant enough to make the result of any roll all that interesting. But putting $25 or $50 behind, and now the game is much more fun (or painful), all for no additional added EV cost.



Your first sentence is incorrect. You are not giving up any EV. The odds bet is a separate bet. The odds bet has a house edge of 0%. Your EV for all odds bets is $0.

Thatís fine if you want to play that way. I assume thatís why most people gamble. You want something significant at stake to make it meaningful. I completely understand. Iím just not much of a gambler. I look at everything from an EV perspective. I just want to lose the least amount possible. The EV doesnít change when you take odds so I could take it or leave it. However, I know short term variance can be a b*tch so unless there is some added benefit to taking odds, like an increased player rating, Iím not taking them. I just want to be able to gamble intelligently if I happen to be at the casino with friends who want to gamble. I generally only play positive EV games but Iím learning about other games currently.
MrVegas
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April 5th, 2019 at 8:34:02 PM permalink
I just want to close out this thread with these statements:

Betting $10 on the pass line and taking 10x odds for a total bet of $110 is better than betting $110 on the pass line.

Betting $10 on the pass line and taking 10x odds for a total bet of $110 is NOT is not better than betting $10 on the pass line.

Taking odds will not change the EV for someone betting table minimum.
ChumpChange
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April 5th, 2019 at 9:21:11 PM permalink
If I'm trying to win 10 bets, winning $10 PL + $15 average on $10 odds, I'd win $250 with 10 wins vs just $100 with the $10 PL. The house advantage is somewhat the same depending on the length of my session, but I'd probably need a $200 - $250 buy-in with the odds bets instead of $100 without.
Tanko
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April 6th, 2019 at 3:46:45 AM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

Betting $10 on the pass line and taking 10x odds for a total bet of $110 is NOT is not better than betting $10 on the pass line.



Sure it is.

What other bet allows you to bet more, without increasing your expected loss?

Over a series of rolls, the total amount wagered, multiplied by the HE, will result in the same expected loss whether you are zero odds or 1000X odds. Excellent.

Odds are the reason you play craps.

They increase variance, but any time you win anything on any negative EV game, that is solely due to variance, not the negative EV.

Purchase WinCraps Pro. Run some sims for any number of rolls, with and without Odds, and you will see the power of the Odds bet.

I was at a packed hot table at Foxwoods last year, when the PB abruptly shut it down without explanation. The 10X odds bettors were killing it.

I know the PB. When I spoke with him later, he said ĎI had to. We lost 200K on that tableí.

Variance.
MrVegas
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April 6th, 2019 at 5:05:27 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Sure it is.

What other bet allows you to bet more, without increasing your expected loss?



I put an example for someone who wants to get more action out there in my closing statement. I said $10 PL bet with 10x odds is better than $110 on the PL.

If you absolutely have to get as much action on the table as possible to feel the adrenaline than there are few bets better in the casino than pass/come or donít pass/donít come with full odds.
odiousgambit
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April 6th, 2019 at 6:15:26 AM permalink
Regarding the thinking of Mr. Vegas generally:

Yes and no.

Without saying you are "wrong" about your thinking in its entirety , I do think many of us really wonder if you really do get the big picture. I think it mostly revolves around the issue of variance, and experiencing variance. It can be hard to explain, and [if you ask me] hard to put into mathematical language.

With craps, the pass line bet or the don't pass line bet itself, standing alone, has mind-numbingly low variance. If you think you will enjoy just playing that, with no other action, there just isn't any doubt in my mind you'd instead move on to other betting, if not free odds, then place bets or something ... or you'd just quit playing Craps.

Without some variance, in any game with negative expectation, you lose each bet [as you would if you bet each number simultaneously in roulette]. And unfortunately, if you only have a little variance, you only have a little deviation from losing each set of bets [though of course sometimes you'd win a session]. I can say I have never seen a Craps player who wasn't an absolute newbie ever just stick to making the pass or don't pass bet - this just does not happen. You will have to decide what else you are going to bet on or you will give up the game.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Apr 6, 2019
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MrVegas
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April 6th, 2019 at 7:30:06 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Regarding the thinking of Mr. Vegas generally:

[edited]

Yes and no.

Without saying you are "wrong" about your thinking in its entirety , I do think many of us really wonder if you really do get the big picture. I think it mostly revolves around the issue of variance, and experiencing variance. It can be hard to explain, and [if you ask me] hard to put into mathematical language.

With craps, the pass line bet or the don't pass line bet itself, standing alone, has mind-numbingly low variance. If you think you will enjoy just playing that, with no other action, there just isn't any doubt in my mind you'd instead move on to other betting, if not free odds, then place bets or something ... or you'd just quit playing Craps.

Without some variance, in any game with negative expectation, you lose each bet [as you would if you bet each number in roulette]. And unfortunately, if you only have a little variance, you only have a little deviation from losing each set of bets [though of course sometimes you'd win a session]. I can say I have never seen a Craps player who wasn't an absolute newbie ever just stick to making the pass or don't pass bet - this just does not happen. You will have to decide what else you are going to bet on or you will give up the game.



What youíre trying to explain is hard to put into mathematical language because itís not mathematical. Itís psychological. I am simply pointing out that the EV is the same between a minimum bet on the pass line and a minimum bet on the pass line with max odds. Your ďbig pictureĒ has nothing to do with it.
DeMango
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April 6th, 2019 at 10:31:39 AM permalink
This thread reminds me of laying odds on a DP line bet. No matter how carefully you lay, the SOB dealer is going to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. Thank you MtVegas for your patience
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
ChumpChange
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April 6th, 2019 at 12:21:32 PM permalink
Buy-In Balance with Odds
This is for people betting in multiples of $5 who have 2 sets of chips in their rails, one for the PL (15 bets to start) and one for the odds bets (15 bets to start). I'd have 4 sets in my wallet because it probably is possible to lose 60 bets in 6 hours. I've skewed this table because of table minimums. I'm finding I need to prioritize getting to a higher table minimum over putting odds on bets at a lower minimum bet. If I could find $5 tables at any time, just divide the $50 table by 10, or by 5 if on $10 tables.


4 Sets Balance PL Odds Table
$300 $75 $5 $0 $5
$600 $150 $10 $0 $10
$900 $225 $15 $0 $15
$1200 $300 $20 $0 $15
$1500 $375 $25 $0 $25
$2400 $600 $25 $15 $25
$3600 $900 $30 $30 $25
$4800 $1200 $40 $40 $25
$6000 $1500 $50 $50 $50
$7500 $1875 $50 $75 $50
$9000 $2250 $50 $100 $50
$12000 $3000 $50 $150 $50
$15000 $3750 $50 $200 $50
$18000 $4500 $50 $250 $50
$24000 $6000 $50 $350 $50
$30000 $7500 $50 $450 $50
MrCoachRentz
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April 11th, 2019 at 7:33:08 AM permalink
I think when people here "free odds" they forget that you can still "lose" that money. Even playing PL with odds, once the point is established, you're still an underdog to win. At least the odds doesn't take additional $$ from you for that penalty.

If you're going to the tables to play $10 on PL, you're way better off to play a $5 PL and then a $5 odds bet. You should never expose more of your bankroll just to play the odds.

I like what ChumpChange did above, helps to think about them as 2 different bets.

I think it also helps to think about playing the DP with odds. After the point is established, the DP is the favorite to win the bet. If the point is 4, you are a 2 to 1 favorite to win. Paying $20 to win $10 expresses that risk/reward.
FleaStiff
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April 11th, 2019 at 8:12:08 AM permalink
Sweat the money joints and monopoly casinos such as cruise ships tend to be stingy about the odds bet so there must be some benefit to the player even though it can indeed lose,

you go thru your bankroll faster but if you hit a monster roll, man is it fun!
DeMango
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Forager
April 11th, 2019 at 8:20:40 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Sweat the money joints and monopoly casinos such as cruise ships tend to be stingy about the odds bet so there must be some benefit to the player even though it can indeed lose,

you go thru your bankroll faster but if you hit a monster roll, man is it fun!



Those casinos who have low odds do it merely to lower their variance, there is no benefit to the player, just more variance. A $10 better is expected to lose 14 cents, no odds or 100X odds.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DanF
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April 14th, 2019 at 6:46:01 PM permalink
Of course variance is changed. But going blind 10x every roll is dimwits. If you have 100x odds avialable, making progressive odd system will surpass same bets all day. 0,18% or not, you better have a good heart cuz cold trends will kill you quick. Making a progressive system is the basics of money management. Lose less when you lose, win more when you win. I had proof on my last session. Some guys were going max odds and were making more then me on choppy table...but I was losing minimum on it, then it got hot and my progression ran by their winnings in just a few minutes.
unJon
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Joeman
April 14th, 2019 at 7:27:12 PM permalink
I find it strange that people debate the value of odds so much while accepting the concept of Element of Risk for a game like UTH. Odds in craps doesnít change your EV but it sure as hell changes your Element of Risk.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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April 15th, 2019 at 1:50:44 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Those casinos who have low odds do it merely to lower their variance, there is no benefit to the player, just more variance. A $10 better is expected to lose 14 cents, no odds or 100X odds.

Yeah but a smart $1000 bettor will become a $10 bettor with $990 in odds at the 100X table, reducing the houseís take from 14 dollars to 14 cents. Their ďhandleĒ is $1000 in both scenarios, counted as money wagered, so 99% decrease in house edge. Thatís an extreme example but illustrates the line/odds reallocation effect on many but not all bettors

If your theory (higher odds increase variance but donít cost the casino anything over long term) were true then I think all casinos would have 100x odds (or unlimited) since itís free and no one would play anywhere else.

Incidentally, element of risk unchanged. Player could put up to $1000 in odds but the $990 math is prettier
Last edited by: Ace2 on Apr 15, 2019
Itís all about making that GTA
TinMan
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April 16th, 2019 at 8:23:04 PM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

Your first sentence is incorrect. You are not giving up any EV. The odds bet is a separate bet. The odds bet has a house edge of 0%. Your EV for all odds bets is $0.



My first sentence is absolutely correct. I said "If you're not taking max odds, but you are betting literally anything else at the table, then you're giving up EV." The EV on the odds is 0%. The EV on any other bet you might put your money on is some number >0%. Think of it this way--you've put down a $10 pass line bet and you've got $100 additional dollars you want to bet. You're deciding between two options. The table you're playing at allows 10x odds. Option 1: You could put that $100 on the odds for an expected loss of $100 x 0.0000 = $0. Or Option 2: you could, for example, take that $100 and put it on the field for an expected loss of $100 x 0.0556 = $5.56. Option 2 (field bet) is $5.56 worse than Option 1 (putting the $100 on the odds). This holds true for any other bet you might make at the table. Unless you find it more enjoyable/exciting/whatever to justify the cost, it doesn't make sense to pass up taking max odds and then take that some money that could have gone on odds and put it on another bet at the table.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
Ace2
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April 17th, 2019 at 2:55:50 AM permalink
I agree with your outlook but it seems a huge percentage of experienced players prefer to make place bets or put significant money on them instead of making come bets with odds. Iíve heard itís because they prefer to pick the point number. Besides the lower vig, I like enjoy the varied odds and payout of the pass/come different numbers. Incidentally, when I was in Macau a few months ago I was the only person at a crowded table (only a few isolated Craps tables there) making pass/odds bets...everybody else making place bets only and it was like I was making an exotic bet or something.

I do have two lucky numbers for when I make a rare roulette bet, but if there were a betting option that paid 36 to 1 instead of 35 to 1 with the caveat being that you donít get to pick your number, Iíd definitely take the higher payout. But there are probably lots of people that would gladly pay double the vig (5.26 % instead of 2.63%) to pick the number they are betting on. They pay nearly triple the vig to place the 5 or 9 instead of waiting for it to be picked. Not much of a wait, every third point will be 5 / 9.

I guess Iím just not that superstitious (nowhere even close). And would never play any game long term with a vig over about 0.7 %. Vigs that low can realisticly be beaten by variance alone even over a lifetime of playing (at least at my level which is about 4 LV weekends per year )
Last edited by: Ace2 on Apr 17, 2019
Itís all about making that GTA
Mission146
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April 17th, 2019 at 6:43:39 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Sweat the money joints and monopoly casinos such as cruise ships tend to be stingy about the odds bet so there must be some benefit to the player even though it can indeed lose,



That just has to do with concern about exposure. You have to look at it as what is the expected profit for a Craps Table on a cruise ship over a period of a month.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MrVegas
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April 17th, 2019 at 9:33:41 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

My first sentence is absolutely correct. I said "If you're not taking max odds, but you are betting literally anything else at the table, then you're giving up EV." The EV on the odds is 0%. The EV on any other bet you might put your money on is some number >0%. Think of it this way--you've put down a $10 pass line bet and you've got $100 additional dollars you want to bet. You're deciding between two options. The table you're playing at allows 10x odds. Option 1: You could put that $100 on the odds for an expected loss of $100 x 0.0000 = $0. Or Option 2: you could, for example, take that $100 and put it on the field for an expected loss of $100 x 0.0556 = $5.56. Option 2 (field bet) is $5.56 worse than Option 1 (putting the $100 on the odds). This holds true for any other bet you might make at the table. Unless you find it more enjoyable/exciting/whatever to justify the cost, it doesn't make sense to pass up taking max odds and then take that some money that could have gone on odds and put it on another bet at the table.



Donít bet those field bets and put the $100 in your pocket and then calculate youíre EV. If youíre EV improved then it had nothing to do with the odds bets because you havenít made any. Now that youíve got your new EV adding odds wont change it. Thatís whatís happening when you move that money from the field to the odds. The EV improves but not because of the odds. It improves because you removed the field bet. We are talking about two different things here. Youíre talking about someone who absolutely has to bet X amount of dollars and itís cheaper to do a table min pass line bet and put the rest on odds. I agree. Iíve said that several times in this thread. Iím talking about why would someone give the advice to play the pass/donít pass or come/donít come and take full odds when it makes no difference. Or at least I thought it made no difference because I was assuming our pass line bet was constant and we would be putting more money on the table to take the odds. Then I made this thread and got other peopleís perspective on it where they assumed the money on the table was constant and how you bet it varied. That was what I wanted to know. Now I know and you know as well now the other perspective.
unJon
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April 17th, 2019 at 9:42:19 PM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

Donít bet those field bets and put the $100 in your pocket and then calculate youíre EV. If youíre EV improved then it had nothing to do with the odds bets because you havenít made any. Now that youíve got your new EV adding odds wont change it. Thatís whatís happening when you move that money from the field to the odds. The EV improves but not because of the odds. It improves because you removed the field bet. We are talking about two different things here. Youíre talking about someone who absolutely has to bet X amount of dollars and itís cheaper to do a table min pass line bet and put the rest on odds. I agree. Iíve said that several times in this thread. Iím talking about why would someone give the advice to play the pass/donít pass or come/donít come and take full odds when it makes no difference. Or at least I thought it made no difference because I was assuming our pass line bet was constant and we would be putting more money on the table to take the odds. Then I made this thread and got other peopleís perspective on it where they assumed the money on the table was constant and how you bet it varied. That was what I wanted to know. Now I know and you know as well now the other perspective.



This is only true if your pass line bet is at the table minimum and at the lowest minimum table at the casino. If you are at a $5 min table and betting $10 PL then you should instead do $5PL and $5 odds.* Likewise if you are betting $25 PL at a $25 min table, but the casino also has a $10 min table, then you should move to the $10 min table and bet $10PL with $15 odds.**

*stretch to $6 if point is 5 or 9.

**stretch to $16 if the point is 5 or 9.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
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April 18th, 2019 at 4:19:38 AM permalink
Good advice or bad advice? This boils down to

*is the advice to add the odds bet ?

or

*is the advice to change the bet from a bet with a house edge to the odds bet?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange
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April 18th, 2019 at 5:18:01 AM permalink
I put a PB 6 bet up and waited 40 minutes for it to hit 3 times on a single shooter. It was just an opportunity to win big that didn't pan out for me. But the guy next to me making come bets with odds on a progression made $1500+.
I'm so bummed with the passline lately I'd rather just put up 1 or 2 place bets. I'm not gonna get creamed on the come-out, but I won't win on it either.
MrVegas
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odiousgambit
April 18th, 2019 at 5:38:49 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Good advice or bad advice? This boils down to

*is the advice to add the odds bet ?

or

*is the advice to change the bet from a bet with a house edge to the odds bet?



Thank you! Someone actually understands.
unJon
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odiousgambit
April 18th, 2019 at 5:41:43 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Good advice or bad advice? This boils down to

*is the advice to add the odds bet ?

or

*is the advice to change the bet from a bet with a house edge to the odds bet?



I agree with this. But find that the second choice occurs more often. I donít tend to see many people just betting minimum pass line at the smallest min table at the casino.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MrVegas
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April 18th, 2019 at 5:42:45 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

This is only true if your pass line bet is at the table minimum and at the lowest minimum table at the casino. If you are at a $5 min table and betting $10 PL then you should instead do $5PL and $5 odds.* Likewise if you are betting $25 PL at a $25 min table, but the casino also has a $10 min table, then you should move to the $10 min table and bet $10PL with $15 odds.**

*stretch to $6 if point is 5 or 9.

**stretch to $16 if the point is 5 or 9.



The odds bet has no edge. Not for the player and not for the house. Your changes in EV in any scenario you give me are not because of the addition or subtraction of an odds bet. Your EV changes are because of the addiction or subtraction of a negative EV bet.
MrVegas
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April 18th, 2019 at 5:45:00 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I donít tend to see many people just betting minimum pass line at the smallest min table at the casino.



That has nothing to with it. Thatís psychology. We are talking about math. Iím having trouble laying this thread to rest because people keep commenting the exact same thing about how a gambler trying to get a lot of action on the table should take odds. I continue to agree but apparently nobody reads that part of my posts. My advice is to play the lowest table minimum on pass/donít pass or come/donít come with or without odds. That is mathematically the best way to play craps. The EV is the same with or without odds though. Once you start betting higher than the lowest table minimum on the line you arenít taking my advice so itís irrelevant that $10 on PL and $90 on odds is better than $100 on PL.
unJon
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April 18th, 2019 at 5:53:24 AM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

That has nothing to with it. Thatís psychology. We are talking about math. Iím having trouble laying this thread to rest because people keep commenting the exact same thing about how a gambler trying to get a lot of action on the table should take odds.

This post is silly. We are both talking about math and I understand the tautological and uninteresting math point you are making. My point is also math based and practical. I can lower the -EV of the way you play craps unless you play minimum PL at the lowest denom table.

If you want to put the thread to rest, quit responding.

But telling people that the odds bet is meaningless from a tautological math point of view, on a website dedicated to helping gamblers play games in a way that minimizes -EV is misleading and unhelpful.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MrVegas
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April 18th, 2019 at 6:11:08 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

This post is silly. We are both talking about math and I understand the tautological and uninteresting math point you are making. My point is also math based and practical. I can lower the -EV of the way you play craps unless you play minimum PL at the lowest denom table.

If you want to put the thread to rest, quit responding.

But telling people that the odds bet is meaningless from a tautological math point of view, on a website dedicated to helping gamblers play games in a way that minimizes -EV is misleading and unhelpful.



Ok good. We agree on the math. Your last paragraph wasnít helpful though. I didnít come here to tell people that. I came here to ask why is it better to play the line with full odds than to play only the line because it was my understanding that the odds had no edge and therefore made no difference. I now understand the two perspectives. So it was helpful to me and I learned exactly what I wanted to learn.
ChumpChange
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April 18th, 2019 at 6:17:44 AM permalink
I'm working on my Don't Pass with triple odds chart. If a shooter busts my DP odds bet twice, I'll go to the PL with triple odds until he's done shooting his turn.

A $100 line bet has a $1.40 HA, while the $300 odds bet has no HA. Compare that to a $400 line bet that has a $5.60 HA; or a ~$400 PB 6 or 8 that has a $6 HA. HA really grinds your gears at higher bet levels and the longer you play.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Apr 18, 2019
unJon
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April 18th, 2019 at 6:35:05 AM permalink
Quote: MrVegas

Ok good. We agree on the math. Your last paragraph wasnít helpful though. I didnít come here to tell people that. I came here to ask why is it better to play the line with full odds than to play only the line because it was my understanding that the odds had no edge and therefore made no difference. I now understand the two perspectives. So it was helpful to me and I learned exactly what I wanted to learn.



Fair. Your OP did stipulate that you weíre betting $10 PL though. So to be fully responsive to your original question, adding odds wonít change your EV, but you can get a better gambling proposition by dropping to $5 PL and adding $5 of odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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