Topkat10
Topkat10
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 9th, 2019 at 8:01:55 AM permalink
Thanks for your opinion makes total sense,
darkoz
darkoz 
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February 9th, 2019 at 8:15:28 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Topkat, you've been getting some replies that suggest doey-don't or punto-banco* hedging work well as offsetting bets. That some casinos evidently consider such hedging as cheating is taken as evidence it works by some. The reality is that hedging does not work to offset bets at all, not against the house edge and not to achieve better comping. The pit people who worry about it simply don't understand the facts. I agree *you* should worry about it if you try it, because there are pit bosses who would dock your comps if they knew you were doing it - these same ignorant pit people. 

Some comments are from those who are simply attracted to the idea of two-player hedging in and of itself. Granted, if two people are going to be playing, you no longer have the argument against hedging that criticizes betting twice as much all against the house edge. Two-player has problems of its own, though, and surely you yourself can name these possible problems. 

*I prefer using 'punto and banco' instead of 'player and banker' when writing about baccarat, as you have to otherwise be on guard against confusing player-the-person with player-the-bet ... there's a similar problem with the word 'banker'



Odious

To say hedging doesn't work to earn better comps is simply wrong

I think you are examining it solely from house edge. In this respect you are correct. The expected losses are the same

What you are discounting is the variance. And its the variance that is MORE important

Ex. Wagering $200 pass/dont pass has an expected loss of $200 only when the 12 hits.

Wagering one side it is conceivable to lose $2000 in an hour (possiblly less). Since time is a factor at tables you getting rated for one hour would have a direct affect on your comps vs.being rated for 4 hours or more. Is it possible it takes longer to lose $2000? Of course but thats variance

Without variance it is GUARANTEED you will last for hours. And be comped commensurate with that (assuming the hosts dont realize the hedge and discount your rating)
Topkat10
Topkat10
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February 9th, 2019 at 10:10:08 AM permalink
Thank you, I have played online practice and it actually reinforced what you outlined here, and that is with playing really quickly, at the destination I have mentioned it is surely a slow go in the evenings as the tables are always full especially over 4th of July might even be lucky to get a spot at the rail, so offsetting bets even for an hour at 100 or 200 would certainly get recorded as such I would imagine. So best case scenario,, strictly 100 on pass (one player) 100 on DP (other player ) no free odds on either ? hedge the 12 for 5 bucks every come out ?, is there any other combination of bets that would insure close to zero outcome ? Another idea as to not raise too many eyebrows would be 50 on Pass with 100 free odds and then place the 6-8 for 24 each no pressing, On the DP side 50 DP with free odds and then a 50 dollar DC bet. Player with the card buys in for 2,000.00 Also make an upfront money deposit for 5,000, I am just not as sophisticated as the posters here especially yourself with regard to EV, Variance, house odds etc etc but I am learning , thanks so much.
Topkat10
Topkat10
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February 9th, 2019 at 10:23:41 AM permalink
Actually the other thought was Pass line 100 no free odds place the 6 and 8 for 24 each no pressing hedge the 12 for 5 bucks

Don't Pass for 100 no free odds place 1 DC bet for 50.00
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 9th, 2019 at 11:53:27 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Without variance it is GUARANTEED you will last for hours. And be comped commensurate with that (assuming the hosts dont realize the hedge and discount your rating)

Without variance, you go from a chance to win to no chance to win. What you are describing is a pure state of "playing for comps" which is generally given a thumbs down. But nobody gives thumbs down if you get over-comped enough. Perhaps it is true that the pit starts creaming their jeans at that kind of action and gives you way more than your theo down there in those parts. I have my doubts.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darkoz
darkoz 
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February 9th, 2019 at 12:05:18 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Without variance, you go from a chance to win to no chance to win. What you are describing is a pure state of "playing for comps" which is generally given a thumbs down. But nobody gives thumbs down if you get over-comped enough. Perhaps it is true that the pit starts creaming their jeans at that kind of action and gives you way more than your theo down there in those parts. I have my doubts.



Correct

The play is not to win but to lose

Get overcomped

Clean up (win) on the tail end

Which is winning in my book (no pun intended referring to my actual book as yet to be published)
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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February 9th, 2019 at 12:58:58 PM permalink
My two cents:

If you're actually going to do this, then I've always believed that all the play should go onto the card of a single player. If you're trying to get a room then it's more likely that you'd get it with one person with higher play then two who are "unrelated" with half the play.

Despite the extra edge that you'd gain for comps in the eyes of the casino by playing roulette over craps, you're probably better off at craps because it's easier to blend in at a crowded table and not have your scheme recognized (although I doubt that anyone in charge would care).

It's probably easier to do it with a buddy because a) if you're betting heavily enough to try to get good comps and the other person presents a card with the same last name as your own then it will attract attention.

Do it downtown, especially if you're going to use blacks. Black chips on the strip won't even get any attention.

The one thing that nobody has brought up, at least that I have seen, has nothing to do with any EV or mathematical angle at all. Even if you can go hours and hours without hitting that 12, the whole endeavor is BORING!!! Hours and hours to get a free meal or a room and drinks at the table that are free anyway? If you're a known player then you'd probably already have the room upfront anyway. I'd happily throw off the equation by placing a 6 or 8 just to keep myself awake. The bets might even win and protect your bankroll for a little while from that dreaded 12.
Last edited by: Lovecomps on Feb 9, 2019
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Sandybestdog
Sandybestdog
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February 9th, 2019 at 1:07:37 PM permalink
Quote: Topkat10

Thanks Sandy, I have been many times and fully aware of all the expenses associated with a stay there,i never got their players card over the years because I didn't play arted playing craps over the last few years at Mohegan/ Foxwoods, really enjoy playing, my income allows me now to stay at the Cove and I will be taking my two adult kids over 4th of July. The last time I was there was over Labor day with my son played craps avererage buy in was 500 a session multiple sessions maybe 5 -7 hours total for 3 days, at my request they took off roughly 250 of F and B and gave me a 50 dollar free play slot voucher, never received any offers for a return discounted room rate My big question are there any offsetting systems that would achieve a zero result involving 2 people at the same table? Someone responded with a single zero roulette system that would work but did not give specifics, Craps pass don't pass hedge the 12 on the comeout ? I could certainly just play at a higher limit by myself and hope for the best, also does making a deposit of "upfront money" get you any further consideration ? I suppose at the end of the day it all comes down to how much you lay out there, was hoping to get on their radar for discounted rates in the future thanks for your reply

Itís possible what happened is that they took off part of your room bill but because you werenít playing rated on a players card it didnít trigger in their system. Itís also possible that they donít target table players for offers. Iím not sure. I played slots there. I donít think your idea of offsetting bets is the best approach. Also keep in mind if you do that, youíre splitting the action between 2 cards and it sounds like youíre trying to get as much action on one card to trigger offers. Next time you go, get a players card. Any future trips will be booked on that players card number and when you go again your room key is connected to that card. Depositing $5000 as you suggest may work. I would suggest playing $50-75 a hand on blackjack. Their rules there are decent. Find a slow dealer and you have a decent chance at breaking even. Youíre going to have to take risk, thatís the whole point but I believe youíll lose less this way. Also they have an electronic blackjack game there you can play with a players card. I believe it is 3:2 but make sure to check. This will count as slot play and will possibly benefit you better. If you get a players card linked to your room, your son can play with his room key and it will all count on your card. Lastly you can play some video poker. I havenít searched all of their games but I believe the best I saw was 9/5 jacks. If you did 40-50k coin in this should get you some offers. Your expected loss is a little less than $1000, however variance will be much higher than that.
Topkat10
Topkat10
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February 9th, 2019 at 4:17:43 PM permalink
Really great thanks, have no intention of getting my son a card, all the action would be on my card,i still have a players card from the labor day visit I put everything on my room last time I was there, and knew enough to book the room through them same this year and charge everything to the room, just thought I could bet 1 -200 passline for an hour, while my son bets the DP same amount and get in the system for that amount and then dial it back from there to 25 passline 50 odds and the inside for the minimum and press, my son could also break off and play his game I could also take a swing at BJ but it is fun to play craps and my sone is learning how to play as well, not sure management would be too interested or cared as it gets a bit crazy there after 9 p.m.
Topkat10
Topkat10
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February 9th, 2019 at 4:30:06 PM permalink
Thanks all intentions are to just have one players card and i actually have a card from my last 2 visits , and to be clear we are not going to Las Vegas, as you have pointed out it is far to much work to do for a meal or room, I stated in my original post we will be in the Bahamas at the Atlantis, agreed we still get plenty to drink at the tables but the food and other beverage and room rates are obscene, hence the idea if only for the first hour is to play heavy offsetting bets at 100- 200 passline and my son plays don't pass maybe hedge the 12 on the come out , the play is typically slow because the tables are full and there is lots of action, so my intention is to get a favorable rating and after an hour we can break off and reduce our bets and play the way we like, have gotten some great feedback here and appreciate your thoughts

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