Lucky Shooter side-bet

Lucky Shooter side bet is on E-Craps installs from Organic. There was a thread about this in 2016 which was somewhat vague (the exact name wasnt even known) so I decided to make this the official thread with full rules

Before I get to the side-bet let me say a little about the base game. This was an install at Ballys Wild West in AC. Max odds were 2X on BOTH do and dont

Do odds
4 and 10 = 3 for 1
5 anf 9 = 5 for 2.
6 and 8 = 11 for 5

Dont odds
4 and 10 = 3 for 2.
5 and 9 = 5 for 3.
6 and 8 = 11 for 6

For those APs looking to get to Diamond with Doey/Dont the game was rated at $200 per point

Lucky Shooter

Here is the sidebet and paytables at Ballys



Per the other thread there is a higher paytable offering $150 and $1000 for the top 2 wins respectively

Wagers are $1-5 and must be made in conjunction with the pass/dont pass base bet. The sidebet is only available on the comeout

If the initial roll is any Craps (2,3,12) wager is lost

If the initial roll is 7/11 the wager remains but does not win. I.E. you can keep the sidebet wager while removing or not replacing the base bet. However you cannot raise the sidebet if you did not have the max placed without an additional base bet

You may also remove the sidebet at this time

If a point is thrown the side bet is active and locked until a resolution which must occur within the next 6 throws based on the rules

The point of the side bet is to get all the points thrown within the next 6 throws with certain orders established as follows

Succesive throws

1st successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point is thrown the wager locks that point and the wager continues.

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point is thrown the wager is lost

No payout is made

2nd successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point AND the point number thrown in the first successive throw that additional point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point or the point thrown in the first successive throw is thrown then player loses wager

No payout is made

3rd successive throw:

If any point OTHER THAN the original point AND the 2 locked points from the previous successive throws are thrown that point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 2 successive locked points are thrown wager is ended

Payout of 2 for one is made

4th successive throw:

If any point OTHER THAN the original point AND either of the 3 locked successive points are thrown that point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 3 locked successive points are thrown the wager ends

Payout is made for 4 for 1

5th successive throw:

If the remaining point number not thrown appears the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 4 locked successive points are thrown the wager is lost

Payout is made for 10 for 1

6th successive throw:

If the ORIGINAL POINT NUMBER is thrown again on this throw then wager is successfully concluded and player wins jackpot of 500 for 1 (1000 for 1 on some paytables)

If a 2,3,7,11,12 OR any of the 5 locked successive points are thrown the wager is lost

Payout is made for 100 for 1 (150 for 1 on some paytables)

This seems like a horrible bet to me

Im certain the Wizard will enjoy the math breakdown on this one

Quote: darkoz

Lucky Shooter side bet is on E-Craps installs from Organic.

This seems like a horrible bet to me

Im certain the Wizard will enjoy the math breakdown on this one

there is one here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/28447-interblock-lucky-shooter-craps-sidebet/

let us see who agrees on the results
I also agree with the results when a push is considered as
NOT a bet resolved

event	prob	net	return
push	0	0	0
craps	0.142857143	-1	-0.142857143
1pt-0	0.384920635	-1	-0.384920635
1pt-1	0.265873016	-1	-0.265873016
1pt-2	0.139311434	-1	-0.139311434
1pt-3	0.052646727	4	0.21058691
1pt-4	0.012860082	14	0.180041152
1pt-5	0.001360855	149	0.202767435
Lucky6	0.000170107	999	0.169936802
total	1	edge	-0.169629929

consider the push as a bet resolved (as in Baccarat)
I show for the pay table -0.131934389 edge

event	prob	net	return
push	0.222222222	0	0
craps	0.111111111	-1	-0.111111111
1pt-0	0.299382716	-1	-0.299382716
1pt-1	0.206790123	-1	-0.206790123
1pt-2	0.108353338	-1	-0.108353338
1pt-3	0.040947455	4	0.163789819
1pt-4	0.010002286	14	0.140032007
1pt-5	0.001058443	149	0.157708005
Lucky6	0.000132305	999	0.132173068
total	1	edge	-0.131934389

I have played this a few times and think I did ok on it. never hit them all!
they have have a funny way of rolling, not like shoot to win
Sally

added: this pay table (to 1)
-1
0
1
3
9
99
499 (500 for 1)
returns -0.125261435
I used a Markov chain solution in Excel

event	prob	net	return
push	0	0	0
craps	0.142857143	-1	-0.142857143
1pt-0	0.384920635	-1	-0.384920635
1pt-1	0.265873016	-1	-0.265873016
1pt-2	0.139311434	1	0.139311434
1pt-3	0.052646727	3	0.157940182
1pt-4	0.012860082	9	0.115740741
1pt-5	0.001360855	99	0.134724672
Lucky6	0.000170107	499	0.084883347
total	1	edge	-0.161050417

push included

event	prob	net	return
push	0.222222222	0	0
craps	0.111111111	-1	-0.111111111
1pt-0	0.299382716	-1	-0.299382716
1pt-1	0.206790123	-1	-0.206790123
1pt-2	0.108353338	1	0.108353338
1pt-3	0.040947455	3	0.122842364
1pt-4	0.010002286	9	0.090020576
1pt-5	0.001058443	99	0.104785856
Lucky6	0.000132305	499	0.066020381
total	1	edge	-0.125261435

I get a house edge of 7.6% (7.5992 %) on this side bet with the 500, 100,10,4,2 paytable.

Quote: gordonm888

I get a house edge of 7.6% (7.5992 %) on this side bet with the 500, 100,10,4,2 paytable.

That cant be right. The link mustangsally gave worked out to 17% with the higher paytable

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?

Quote: darkoz

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?

at first the rules seems confusing
but the rules are very basic (especially when one plays it)
In CA I saw this machine only at Fantasy Springs Casino a couple years ago

a bit more data
the average number of rolls for any resolution (including a push 7,11)
I get 2.258968717
let us say 2.26

Sally

Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I have to rush out the house so can't compare to MS's numbers but here are mine:

Event	Pays	Probability	Return
Five numbers	500	0.000184	0.091879
Four numbers	100	0.001632	0.163177
Three numbers	10	0.007174	0.071743
Two numbers	4	0.020838	0.083352
One number	2	0.045010	0.090021
Zero numbres	0	0.077160	0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11	1	0.222222	0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12	0	0.111111	0.000000
Point and loss	0	0.514668	0.000000
Total		1.000000	0.722393

Quote: mustangsally

push included

event	prob	net	return
push	0.222222222	0	0
craps	0.111111111	-1	-0.111111111
1pt-0	0.299382716	-1	-0.299382716
1pt-1	0.206790123	-1	-0.206790123
1pt-2	0.108353338	1	0.108353338
1pt-3	0.040947455	3	0.122842364
1pt-4	0.010002286	9	0.090020576
1pt-5	0.001058443	99	0.104785856
Lucky6	0.000132305	499	0.066020381
total	1	edge	-0.125261435

Maybe I misunderstand the rules, but let me challenge your probability of "1pt-0." I assume this to be when the player makes a point and achieves it the very next roll. I see no other way this event can occur. That said, wouldn't the probability be:

pr(4)^2 + pr(5)^2 + pr(6)^2 + pr(8)^2 + pr(9)^2 + pr(10)^2 = 0.077160494?

Quote: darkoz

That cant be right. The link mustangsally gave worked out to 17% with the higher paytable

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?

Sorry, I, too, was going out the door so I basically used Chuckleberry's table of outcome probabilities. I didn't pick up on the fine points of the bet resolution.

Quote: Wizard

Maybe I misunderstand the rules,

"1st successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point is thrown the wager locks that point and the wager continues.

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point is thrown the wager is lost"

a 7 or a horn number causes the bet to lose

I played this bet about the time I did the math, so I guess I understood the rules better than those who may have just read them a few times
My transition matrix shows this for Point-0=
3/36*15/36+
4/36*16/36+
5/36*17/36+
5/36*17/36+
4/36*16/36+
3/36*15/36 = 388/1296


Sally

Actually saw this game on a bartop the other day...pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Quote: mustangsally

I played this bet about the time I did the math, so I guess I understood the rules better than those who may have just read them a few times
My transition matrix shows this for Point-0=
3/36*15/36+
4/36*16/36+
5/36*17/36+
5/36*17/36+
4/36*16/36+
3/36*15/36 = 388/1296

Maybe we are just disagreeing on how to label losing events. I would file a sequence of 4 and then 7 as a "point and loss." I don't think there is a disagreement on the rules.

Still I think I have a minor error somewhere.

I found a minor error. Sally and I at least agree on the probability of the highest win. However, I still think we are not interpreting the rules the same way, and the error is probably mine.

Let me think.

I was happy someone else came up with the same answer I did a few years back, using a different method.

There is an easier way to populate the transition matrix that I used in Excel. I may re-do it later.

Here is my Excel in Google for those that want to see how I did it
https://goo.gl/b8HCGJ

come to think of it, I do not even see a simulation I ran
Hmmm

Sally

btw, the bet IS addictive, imo. I tried not to make it but it kept winning (the Point2 version)

Okay, I now agree with Sally. Here are my tables.

Chuckleberry Pay Table

Event	Pays	Probability	Return
Five hits plus point	1000	0.000132	0.132305
Five hits	150	0.001058	0.158766
Four hits	15	0.010002	0.150034
Three hits	5	0.040947	0.204737
Two hits	0	0.108353	0.000000
One hit	0	0.206790	0.000000
Zero hits	0	0.299383	0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11	1	0.222222	0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12	0	0.111111	0.000000
Total		1.000000	0.868066

darkoz Pay Table

Event	Pays	Probability	Return
Five hits plus point	500	0.000132	0.066153
Five hits	100	0.001058	0.105844
Four hits	10	0.010002	0.100023
Three hits	4	0.040947	0.163790
Two hits	2	0.108353	0.216707
One hit	0	0.206790	0.000000
Zero hits	0	0.299383	0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11	1	0.222222	0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12	0	0.111111	0.000000
Total		1.000000	0.874739

Thanks, Sally, for keeping me on my toes.

Here is my new page on Lucky Shooter. As usual, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.

Interesting math analysis

One would assume the $1000 paytable had the better return

Apparently the higher payouts are balanced by the first payout being one extra combination being made before reaching a winning resolution

Quote: Wizard

Thanks, Sally, for keeping me on my toes.

I do not understand, but ok to you.
standing flat-footed is ok too.
(not saying you are flat-footed, I doubt you are)

as combinations (nCk) are my weakest link in most cases, care to show (and share) how you did your math?
Chuckleberry looks to have done it the same way too in the first link I provided.

As I already mentioned, I was in a Markov chain mode a few years ago and did it that way
to be different

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

care to show (and share) how you did your math?

I did it in Excel. I modified my Fire Bet spreadsheet, which is also a Markov Chain. Plus, when we didn't agree, I wrote a simulation in C++, which confirmed you were right. I can share the spreadsheet, if you like, on Google Docs.

Quote: Wizard

I can share the spreadsheet, if you like, on Google Docs.

sure, that would be nice.
thank you
I have yet to simulate this one...
since the Astros just won, I will do just that (I won too)

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

sure, that would be nice.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet. Sorry it isn't documented well. https://www.dropbox.com/s/whrxq399i4fa83n/lucky%20shooter.xls?dl=0.

Here is some code for my simulation.

After all this work, I spotted my first placement of this bet at Buffalo Billy's casino in Cripple Creek CO. They follow a 5-20-150-1000 pay table. I saw what seemed the same Interblock craps game at other Colorado casinos but they didn't have the Lucky Shooter bet.

I see this pay table is not already listed on my site. Here is my analysis of it:

Event	Pays	Probability	Return
Five hits plus point	1000	0.000132	0.132305
Five hits	150	0.001058	0.158766
Four hits	20	0.010002	0.200046
Three hits	5	0.040947	0.204737
Two hits	0	0.108353	0.000000
One hit	0	0.206790	0.000000
Zero hits	0	0.299383	0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11	1	0.222222	0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12	0	0.111111	0.000000
Total		1.000000	0.918077

For a multi-roll side bet, an 8.2% house edge ain't bad.

Quote: Wizard

For a multi-roll side bet, an 8.2% house edge ain't bad.

I have heard from a few that have played it, hard to win from it.
Maybe their data proves it and try to make players win more from playing it.

sucker bets taste sweet until they don't
and then you look for another sucker

ask Telly

Sally

Ah, yes. The 7 or 11 tie! Good catch. I'm glad my original mistake pushed my calculation a little worse, rather than a little better. Nothing's worse than playing a bad game when you think it's good.

Quote: Chuckleberry

Ah, yes. The 7 or 11 tie! Good catch. I'm glad my original mistake pushed my calculation a little worse, rather than a little better. Nothing's worse than playing a bad game when you think it's good.

Welcome back! Sorry I never took notice of your original post on this bet.