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darkoz
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June 13th, 2018 at 12:25:34 PM permalink
Lucky Shooter side bet is on E-Craps installs from Organic. There was a thread about this in 2016 which was somewhat vague (the exact name wasnt even known) so I decided to make this the official thread with full rules

Before I get to the side-bet let me say a little about the base game. This was an install at Ballys Wild West in AC. Max odds were 2X on BOTH do and dont

Do odds
4 and 10 = 3 for 1
5 anf 9 = 5 for 2.
6 and 8 = 11 for 5

Dont odds
4 and 10 = 3 for 2.
5 and 9 = 5 for 3.
6 and 8 = 11 for 6

For those APs looking to get to Diamond with Doey/Dont the game was rated at $200 per point

Lucky Shooter

Here is the sidebet and paytables at Ballys



Per the other thread there is a higher paytable offering $150 and $1000 for the top 2 wins respectively

Wagers are $1-5 and must be made in conjunction with the pass/dont pass base bet. The sidebet is only available on the comeout

If the initial roll is any Craps (2,3,12) wager is lost

If the initial roll is 7/11 the wager remains but does not win. I.E. you can keep the sidebet wager while removing or not replacing the base bet. However you cannot raise the sidebet if you did not have the max placed without an additional base bet

You may also remove the sidebet at this time

If a point is thrown the side bet is active and locked until a resolution which must occur within the next 6 throws based on the rules

The point of the side bet is to get all the points thrown within the next 6 throws with certain orders established as follows

Succesive throws

1st successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point is thrown the wager locks that point and the wager continues.

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point is thrown the wager is lost

No payout is made

2nd successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point AND the point number thrown in the first successive throw that additional point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point or the point thrown in the first successive throw is thrown then player loses wager

No payout is made

3rd successive throw:

If any point OTHER THAN the original point AND the 2 locked points from the previous successive throws are thrown that point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 2 successive locked points are thrown wager is ended

Payout of 2 for one is made

4th successive throw:

If any point OTHER THAN the original point AND either of the 3 locked successive points are thrown that point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 3 locked successive points are thrown the wager ends

Payout is made for 4 for 1

5th successive throw:

If the remaining point number not thrown appears the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 4 locked successive points are thrown the wager is lost

Payout is made for 10 for 1

6th successive throw:

If the ORIGINAL POINT NUMBER is thrown again on this throw then wager is successfully concluded and player wins jackpot of 500 for 1 (1000 for 1 on some paytables)

If a 2,3,7,11,12 OR any of the 5 locked successive points are thrown the wager is lost

Payout is made for 100 for 1 (150 for 1 on some paytables)

This seems like a horrible bet to me

Im certain the Wizard will enjoy the math breakdown on this one
Last edited by: darkoz on Jun 13, 2018
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mustangsally
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June 13th, 2018 at 1:48:43 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Lucky Shooter side bet is on E-Craps installs from Organic.

This seems like a horrible bet to me

Im certain the Wizard will enjoy the math breakdown on this one

there is one here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/28447-interblock-lucky-shooter-craps-sidebet/

let us see who agrees on the results
I also agree with the results when a push is considered as
NOT a bet resolved
eventprobnetreturn
push000
craps0.142857143-1-0.142857143
1pt-00.384920635-1-0.384920635
1pt-10.265873016-1-0.265873016
1pt-20.139311434-1-0.139311434
1pt-30.05264672740.21058691
1pt-40.012860082140.180041152
1pt-50.0013608551490.202767435
Lucky60.0001701079990.169936802
total1edge-0.169629929


consider the push as a bet resolved (as in Baccarat)
I show for the pay table -0.131934389 edge
eventprobnetreturn
push0.22222222200
craps0.111111111-1-0.111111111
1pt-00.299382716-1-0.299382716
1pt-10.206790123-1-0.206790123
1pt-20.108353338-1-0.108353338
1pt-30.04094745540.163789819
1pt-40.010002286140.140032007
1pt-50.0010584431490.157708005
Lucky60.0001323059990.132173068
total1edge-0.131934389


I have played this a few times and think I did ok on it. never hit them all!
they have have a funny way of rolling, not like shoot to win
Sally

added: this pay table (to 1)
-1
0
1
3
9
99
499 (500 for 1)
returns -0.125261435
I used a Markov chain solution in Excel
eventprobnetreturn
push000
craps0.142857143-1-0.142857143
1pt-00.384920635-1-0.384920635
1pt-10.265873016-1-0.265873016
1pt-20.13931143410.139311434
1pt-30.05264672730.157940182
1pt-40.01286008290.115740741
1pt-50.001360855990.134724672
Lucky60.0001701074990.084883347
total1edge-0.161050417

push included
eventprobnetreturn
push0.22222222200
craps0.111111111-1-0.111111111
1pt-00.299382716-1-0.299382716
1pt-10.206790123-1-0.206790123
1pt-20.10835333810.108353338
1pt-30.04094745530.122842364
1pt-40.01000228690.090020576
1pt-50.001058443990.104785856
Lucky60.0001323054990.066020381
total1edge-0.125261435
Last edited by: mustangsally on Jun 13, 2018
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gordonm888
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June 13th, 2018 at 2:07:49 PM permalink
I get a house edge of 7.6% (7.5992 %) on this side bet with the 500, 100,10,4,2 paytable.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
darkoz
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June 13th, 2018 at 2:10:47 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I get a house edge of 7.6% (7.5992 %) on this side bet with the 500, 100,10,4,2 paytable.



That cant be right. The link mustangsally gave worked out to 17% with the higher paytable

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?
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mustangsally
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June 13th, 2018 at 2:39:05 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?

at first the rules seems confusing
but the rules are very basic (especially when one plays it)
In CA I saw this machine only at Fantasy Springs Casino a couple years ago

a bit more data
the average number of rolls for any resolution (including a push 7,11)
I get 2.258968717
let us say 2.26

Sally
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Wizard
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June 13th, 2018 at 5:43:52 PM permalink
Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I have to rush out the house so can't compare to MS's numbers but here are mine:

Event Pays Probability Return
Five numbers 500 0.000184 0.091879
Four numbers 100 0.001632 0.163177
Three numbers 10 0.007174 0.071743
Two numbers 4 0.020838 0.083352
One number 2 0.045010 0.090021
Zero numbres 0 0.077160 0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11 1 0.222222 0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12 0 0.111111 0.000000
Point and loss 0 0.514668 0.000000
Total 1.000000 0.722393
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:24:54 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally



push included

eventprobnetreturn
push0.22222222200
craps0.111111111-1-0.111111111
1pt-00.299382716-1-0.299382716
1pt-10.206790123-1-0.206790123
1pt-20.10835333810.108353338
1pt-30.04094745530.122842364
1pt-40.01000228690.090020576
1pt-50.001058443990.104785856
Lucky60.0001323054990.066020381
total1edge-0.125261435



Maybe I misunderstand the rules, but let me challenge your probability of "1pt-0." I assume this to be when the player makes a point and achieves it the very next roll. I see no other way this event can occur. That said, wouldn't the probability be:

pr(4)^2 + pr(5)^2 + pr(6)^2 + pr(8)^2 + pr(9)^2 + pr(10)^2 = 0.077160494?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gordonm888
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:46:06 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

That cant be right. The link mustangsally gave worked out to 17% with the higher paytable

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?



Sorry, I, too, was going out the door so I basically used Chuckleberry's table of outcome probabilities. I didn't pick up on the fine points of the bet resolution.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
mustangsally
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June 13th, 2018 at 7:08:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Maybe I misunderstand the rules,

"1st successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point is thrown the wager locks that point and the wager continues.

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point is thrown the wager is lost"

a 7 or a horn number causes the bet to lose

I played this bet about the time I did the math, so I guess I understood the rules better than those who may have just read them a few times
My transition matrix shows this for Point-0=
3/36*15/36+
4/36*16/36+
5/36*17/36+
5/36*17/36+
4/36*16/36+
3/36*15/36 = 388/1296


Sally
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RogerKint
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June 13th, 2018 at 7:12:32 PM permalink
Actually saw this game on a bartop the other day...pretty, pretty, pretty good.
100% risk of ruin
Wizard
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June 13th, 2018 at 7:34:31 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I played this bet about the time I did the math, so I guess I understood the rules better than those who may have just read them a few times
My transition matrix shows this for Point-0=
3/36*15/36+
4/36*16/36+
5/36*17/36+
5/36*17/36+
4/36*16/36+
3/36*15/36 = 388/1296



Maybe we are just disagreeing on how to label losing events. I would file a sequence of 4 and then 7 as a "point and loss." I don't think there is a disagreement on the rules.

Still I think I have a minor error somewhere.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jun 13, 2018
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 13th, 2018 at 8:38:32 PM permalink
I found a minor error. Sally and I at least agree on the probability of the highest win. However, I still think we are not interpreting the rules the same way, and the error is probably mine.

Let me think.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mustangsally
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June 13th, 2018 at 9:44:49 PM permalink
I was happy someone else came up with the same answer I did a few years back, using a different method.

There is an easier way to populate the transition matrix that I used in Excel. I may re-do it later.

Here is my Excel in Google for those that want to see how I did it
https://goo.gl/b8HCGJ

come to think of it, I do not even see a simulation I ran
Hmmm

Sally

btw, the bet IS addictive, imo. I tried not to make it but it kept winning (the Point2 version)
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June 13th, 2018 at 10:12:39 PM permalink
Okay, I now agree with Sally. Here are my tables.

Chuckleberry Pay Table

Event Pays Probability Return
Five hits plus point 1000 0.000132 0.132305
Five hits 150 0.001058 0.158766
Four hits 15 0.010002 0.150034
Three hits 5 0.040947 0.204737
Two hits 0 0.108353 0.000000
One hit 0 0.206790 0.000000
Zero hits 0 0.299383 0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11 1 0.222222 0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12 0 0.111111 0.000000
Total 1.000000 0.868066


darkoz Pay Table

Event Pays Probability Return
Five hits plus point 500 0.000132 0.066153
Five hits 100 0.001058 0.105844
Four hits 10 0.010002 0.100023
Three hits 4 0.040947 0.163790
Two hits 2 0.108353 0.216707
One hit 0 0.206790 0.000000
Zero hits 0 0.299383 0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11 1 0.222222 0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12 0 0.111111 0.000000
Total 1.000000 0.874739


Thanks, Sally, for keeping me on my toes.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 14th, 2018 at 8:32:54 AM permalink
Here is my new page on Lucky Shooter. As usual, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
darkoz
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June 14th, 2018 at 8:42:40 AM permalink
Interesting math analysis

One would assume the $1000 paytable had the better return

Apparently the higher payouts are balanced by the first payout being one extra combination being made before reaching a winning resolution
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mustangsally
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June 14th, 2018 at 10:05:26 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks, Sally, for keeping me on my toes.

I do not understand, but ok to you.
standing flat-footed is ok too.
(not saying you are flat-footed, I doubt you are)

as combinations (nCk) are my weakest link in most cases, care to show (and share) how you did your math?
Chuckleberry looks to have done it the same way too in the first link I provided.

As I already mentioned, I was in a Markov chain mode a few years ago and did it that way
to be different

Sally
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June 14th, 2018 at 3:19:02 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

care to show (and share) how you did your math?



I did it in Excel. I modified my Fire Bet spreadsheet, which is also a Markov Chain. Plus, when we didn't agree, I wrote a simulation in C++, which confirmed you were right. I can share the spreadsheet, if you like, on Google Docs.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mustangsally
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June 14th, 2018 at 3:33:01 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I can share the spreadsheet, if you like, on Google Docs.

sure, that would be nice.
thank you
I have yet to simulate this one...
since the Astros just won, I will do just that (I won too)

Sally
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June 14th, 2018 at 8:06:06 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

sure, that would be nice.



Here is a link to the spreadsheet. Sorry it isn't documented well. https://www.dropbox.com/s/whrxq399i4fa83n/lucky%20shooter.xls?dl=0.

Here is some code for my simulation.



void LuckyShooterSimulation(void)
{
int i,end,total,total_array[13],point,nummin,wins;
unsigned int die1,die2;
time_t curtime,endtime;
__int64 count,wins_array[13],tot_no_point,tot_point_loss;
cerr << "Enter number of minutes in simulation: ";
cin >> nummin;
curtime=time(NULL);
endtime=curtime+(60*nummin);

for (i=0; i<=12; i++)
wins_array=0;
count=0;
tot_no_point=0;
tot_point_loss=0;
__int64 tot_jackpot=0;
do
{
count++;
end=0;
wins=0;
for (i=4; i<=10; i++)
total_array=0;
die1=genrand_int32()%6+1;
die2=genrand_int32()%6+1;
point=die1+die2;
if ((point<=3)||(point==7)||(point>=11)) // bet over via repeat, 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12
{
point=0;
end=1;
}
while (end==0)
{
die1=genrand_int32()%6+1;
die2=genrand_int32()%6+1;
total=die1+die2;
if ((total_array[total]==1)||(total<=3)||(total==7)||(total>=11)||(total==point)) // bet over via repeat, point, 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12
end=1;
else
{
wins++;
total_array[total]=1;
}
};
if (point==0)
tot_no_point++;
else if ((wins==5)&&(total==point))
tot_jackpot++;
else
wins_array[wins]++;
if (count%5000000==0)
{
curtime=time(NULL);
cerr << "Minutes remaining: " << (double)(endtime-curtime)/60.0 << "\n";
}
}
while (curtime<endtime);
printf("No point\t%I64i\t%f\n",tot_no_point,(double)tot_no_point/(double)count);
printf("total jackpots\t%I64i\t%f\n",tot_jackpot,(double)tot_jackpot/(double)count);
for (i=0; i<=5; i++)
printf("%i wins\t%I64i\t%f\n",i,wins_array,(double)wins_array/(double)count);
}
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 26th, 2018 at 9:20:24 AM permalink
After all this work, I spotted my first placement of this bet at Buffalo Billy's casino in Cripple Creek CO. They follow a 5-20-150-1000 pay table. I saw what seemed the same Interblock craps game at other Colorado casinos but they didn't have the Lucky Shooter bet.

I see this pay table is not already listed on my site. Here is my analysis of it:

Event Pays Probability Return
Five hits plus point 1000 0.000132 0.132305
Five hits 150 0.001058 0.158766
Four hits 20 0.010002 0.200046
Three hits 5 0.040947 0.204737
Two hits 0 0.108353 0.000000
One hit 0 0.206790 0.000000
Zero hits 0 0.299383 0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11 1 0.222222 0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12 0 0.111111 0.000000
Total 1.000000 0.918077


For a multi-roll side bet, an 8.2% house edge ain't bad.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mustangsally
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June 26th, 2018 at 9:56:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

For a multi-roll side bet, an 8.2% house edge ain't bad.

I have heard from a few that have played it, hard to win from it.
Maybe their data proves it and try to make players win more from playing it.

sucker bets taste sweet until they don't
and then you look for another sucker

ask Telly

Sally
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Chuckleberry
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June 26th, 2018 at 11:45:10 AM permalink
Ah, yes. The 7 or 11 tie! Good catch. I'm glad my original mistake pushed my calculation a little worse, rather than a little better. Nothing's worse than playing a bad game when you think it's good.
Just trying to stay positive
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June 26th, 2018 at 12:52:27 PM permalink
Quote: Chuckleberry

Ah, yes. The 7 or 11 tie! Good catch. I'm glad my original mistake pushed my calculation a little worse, rather than a little better. Nothing's worse than playing a bad game when you think it's good.



Welcome back! Sorry I never took notice of your original post on this bet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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