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darkoz
darkoz
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June 13th, 2018 at 12:25:34 PM permalink
Lucky Shooter side bet is on E-Craps installs from Organic. There was a thread about this in 2016 which was somewhat vague (the exact name wasnt even known) so I decided to make this the official thread with full rules

Before I get to the side-bet let me say a little about the base game. This was an install at Ballys Wild West in AC. Max odds were 2X on BOTH do and dont

Do odds
4 and 10 = 3 for 1
5 anf 9 = 5 for 2.
6 and 8 = 11 for 5

Dont odds
4 and 10 = 3 for 2.
5 and 9 = 5 for 3.
6 and 8 = 11 for 6

For those APs looking to get to Diamond with Doey/Dont the game was rated at $200 per point

Lucky Shooter

Here is the sidebet and paytables at Ballys



Per the other thread there is a higher paytable offering $150 and $1000 for the top 2 wins respectively

Wagers are $1-5 and must be made in conjunction with the pass/dont pass base bet. The sidebet is only available on the comeout

If the initial roll is any Craps (2,3,12) wager is lost

If the initial roll is 7/11 the wager remains but does not win. I.E. you can keep the sidebet wager while removing or not replacing the base bet. However you cannot raise the sidebet if you did not have the max placed without an additional base bet

You may also remove the sidebet at this time

If a point is thrown the side bet is active and locked until a resolution which must occur within the next 6 throws based on the rules

The point of the side bet is to get all the points thrown within the next 6 throws with certain orders established as follows

Succesive throws

1st successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point is thrown the wager locks that point and the wager continues.

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point is thrown the wager is lost

No payout is made

2nd successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point AND the point number thrown in the first successive throw that additional point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point or the point thrown in the first successive throw is thrown then player loses wager

No payout is made

3rd successive throw:

If any point OTHER THAN the original point AND the 2 locked points from the previous successive throws are thrown that point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 2 successive locked points are thrown wager is ended

Payout of 2 for one is made

4th successive throw:

If any point OTHER THAN the original point AND either of the 3 locked successive points are thrown that point number is locked and the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 3 locked successive points are thrown the wager ends

Payout is made for 4 for 1

5th successive throw:

If the remaining point number not thrown appears the wager continues

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point OR any of the 4 locked successive points are thrown the wager is lost

Payout is made for 10 for 1

6th successive throw:

If the ORIGINAL POINT NUMBER is thrown again on this throw then wager is successfully concluded and player wins jackpot of 500 for 1 (1000 for 1 on some paytables)

If a 2,3,7,11,12 OR any of the 5 locked successive points are thrown the wager is lost

Payout is made for 100 for 1 (150 for 1 on some paytables)

This seems like a horrible bet to me

Im certain the Wizard will enjoy the math breakdown on this one
Last edited by: darkoz on Jun 13, 2018
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
Chuckleberry
June 13th, 2018 at 1:48:43 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Lucky Shooter side bet is on E-Craps installs from Organic.

This seems like a horrible bet to me

Im certain the Wizard will enjoy the math breakdown on this one

there is one here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/28447-interblock-lucky-shooter-craps-sidebet/

let us see who agrees on the results
I also agree with the results when a push is considered as
NOT a bet resolved
eventprobnetreturn
push000
craps0.142857143-1-0.142857143
1pt-00.384920635-1-0.384920635
1pt-10.265873016-1-0.265873016
1pt-20.139311434-1-0.139311434
1pt-30.05264672740.21058691
1pt-40.012860082140.180041152
1pt-50.0013608551490.202767435
Lucky60.0001701079990.169936802
total1edge-0.169629929


consider the push as a bet resolved (as in Baccarat)
I show for the pay table -0.131934389 edge
eventprobnetreturn
push0.22222222200
craps0.111111111-1-0.111111111
1pt-00.299382716-1-0.299382716
1pt-10.206790123-1-0.206790123
1pt-20.108353338-1-0.108353338
1pt-30.04094745540.163789819
1pt-40.010002286140.140032007
1pt-50.0010584431490.157708005
Lucky60.0001323059990.132173068
total1edge-0.131934389


I have played this a few times and think I did ok on it. never hit them all!
they have have a funny way of rolling, not like shoot to win
Sally

added: this pay table (to 1)
-1
0
1
3
9
99
499 (500 for 1)
returns -0.125261435
I used a Markov chain solution in Excel
eventprobnetreturn
push000
craps0.142857143-1-0.142857143
1pt-00.384920635-1-0.384920635
1pt-10.265873016-1-0.265873016
1pt-20.13931143410.139311434
1pt-30.05264672730.157940182
1pt-40.01286008290.115740741
1pt-50.001360855990.134724672
Lucky60.0001701074990.084883347
total1edge-0.161050417

push included
eventprobnetreturn
push0.22222222200
craps0.111111111-1-0.111111111
1pt-00.299382716-1-0.299382716
1pt-10.206790123-1-0.206790123
1pt-20.10835333810.108353338
1pt-30.04094745530.122842364
1pt-40.01000228690.090020576
1pt-50.001058443990.104785856
Lucky60.0001323054990.066020381
total1edge-0.125261435
Last edited by: mustangsally on Jun 13, 2018
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gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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June 13th, 2018 at 2:07:49 PM permalink
I get a house edge of 7.6% (7.5992 %) on this side bet with the 500, 100,10,4,2 paytable.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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June 13th, 2018 at 2:10:47 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I get a house edge of 7.6% (7.5992 %) on this side bet with the 500, 100,10,4,2 paytable.



That cant be right. The link mustangsally gave worked out to 17% with the higher paytable

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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June 13th, 2018 at 2:39:05 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?

at first the rules seems confusing
but the rules are very basic (especially when one plays it)
In CA I saw this machine only at Fantasy Springs Casino a couple years ago

a bit more data
the average number of rolls for any resolution (including a push 7,11)
I get 2.258968717
let us say 2.26

Sally
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Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
Chuckleberry
June 13th, 2018 at 5:43:52 PM permalink
Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I have to rush out the house so can't compare to MS's numbers but here are mine:

Event Pays Probability Return
Five numbers 500 0.000184 0.091879
Four numbers 100 0.001632 0.163177
Three numbers 10 0.007174 0.071743
Two numbers 4 0.020838 0.083352
One number 2 0.045010 0.090021
Zero numbres 0 0.077160 0.000000
Come out roll 7 or 11 1 0.222222 0.222222
Come out roll 2, 3, or 12 0 0.111111 0.000000
Point and loss 0 0.514668 0.000000
Total 1.000000 0.722393
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:24:54 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally



push included

eventprobnetreturn
push0.22222222200
craps0.111111111-1-0.111111111
1pt-00.299382716-1-0.299382716
1pt-10.206790123-1-0.206790123
1pt-20.10835333810.108353338
1pt-30.04094745530.122842364
1pt-40.01000228690.090020576
1pt-50.001058443990.104785856
Lucky60.0001323054990.066020381
total1edge-0.125261435



Maybe I misunderstand the rules, but let me challenge your probability of "1pt-0." I assume this to be when the player makes a point and achieves it the very next roll. I see no other way this event can occur. That said, wouldn't the probability be:

pr(4)^2 + pr(5)^2 + pr(6)^2 + pr(8)^2 + pr(9)^2 + pr(10)^2 = 0.077160494?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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June 13th, 2018 at 6:46:06 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

That cant be right. The link mustangsally gave worked out to 17% with the higher paytable

Its a complicated bet resolution scheme. You certain you got it all?



Sorry, I, too, was going out the door so I basically used Chuckleberry's table of outcome probabilities. I didn't pick up on the fine points of the bet resolution.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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June 13th, 2018 at 7:08:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Maybe I misunderstand the rules,

"1st successive throw:

If any point number OTHER THAN the original point is thrown the wager locks that point and the wager continues.

If a 2,3,7,11,12 or the initiating point is thrown the wager is lost"

a 7 or a horn number causes the bet to lose

I played this bet about the time I did the math, so I guess I understood the rules better than those who may have just read them a few times
My transition matrix shows this for Point-0=
3/36*15/36+
4/36*16/36+
5/36*17/36+
5/36*17/36+
4/36*16/36+
3/36*15/36 = 388/1296


Sally
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RogerKint
RogerKint
Joined: Dec 5, 2011
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June 13th, 2018 at 7:12:32 PM permalink
Actually saw this game on a bartop the other day...pretty, pretty, pretty good.
"You can tell it's real cause it looks so fake" - Musk

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