Chuckleberry
Chuckleberry
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 23
Joined: Jul 23, 2016
March 13th, 2017 at 11:08:33 PM permalink
I was curious about the return of the Lucky Shooter side bet on the InterBlock craps machines. I was surprised not to find any hard numbers on the forums, so I decided to work it out myself. It turns out that the return is pretty crappy for my purposes. Since this forum has been very helpful to me in the past, I decided to post this, in case it could help someone else out there.

The rules are simple:
1) On the Come Out roll, a 2, 3, or 12 is a loss; a 7 or 11 and nothing happens; and if a point is established, move to step 2.
2) A Roll of 2, 3, 7, 11, 12, or the point is a loss; else, continue rolling. If each roll is a unique Point Number, keep going. The max pay is won if 4,5,6,8,9,10 are rolled in any order, in six rolls, and then the original point is rolled on the seventh roll.

The website explains it pretty well. My one beef of their explanation is that it would actually take seven total rolls to hit the jackpot, but the website refers to only six rolls, ignoring the come out roll.

Below is the combinatorial analysis for the paytable I analyzed (1000, 150, 15, 5). I've seen a number of different variations.



Event p EV p*EV VAR
All Hits + Point 0.0001701 999 0.169937 169.8245
Point + 5 Hits 0.0013609 149 0.202767 30.28118
Point + 4 Hits 0.0128601 14 0.180041 2.582027
Point + 3 Hits 0.0526467 4 0.210587 0.915306
Point + 2 Hits 0.1393114 -1 -0.13931 0.096057
Point + 1 Hit 0.265873 -1 -0.26587 0.183323
Point + 0 Hits 0.3849206 -1 -0.38492 0.265408
Point Not Established (Roll of 2, 3 or 12) 0.1428571 -1 -0.14286 0.098502
Total 1 -0.16963 204.2463



I separated the number of hits so that anyone could easily plug different paytables into this table.
A 17% house edge is pretty crappy...

Any math minds out there are free to double check these numbers.
Just trying to stay positive
  • Jump to: