Craps457
Joined: Jan 29, 2018
• Posts: 7
June 8th, 2018 at 10:55:59 AM permalink
Hi,

I had a question regarding calculating the theoretical loss on the field bet when it pays 2x on the 2 and 3x on the 12, for a house edge of 2.78%.

My understanding is that this is a single roll bet, thus it is a true 2.78% edge/loss per roll versus. a pass line bet or place bet in which you divide it by the average number of rolls, is this correct?

If I am assuming a \$10 bet on field, only betting it once a point is established, my calculations are as follows:
Assuming 100 rolls per hour:
70 rolls that are not come out rolls
\$10 x .2.78% x 100 = \$19.46 theo loss

Is the above calculation correct?

My situation is that I like playing the field but I know that mathematically it is not a very smart decision as other bets offer a much better house edge, i.e., placing the 6&8 or come bets.

The issue that I have with multiple come bets is that putting odds on come bets, means that I have a lot more money on the table versus just doing the pass line bet with single or double odds and then playing the field bet, is this a terrible strategy?

My other thoughts are to only play the field when the point is 5, 6, or 8, and when it is the 6 or 8, to place the other number, thus not a full iron cross but somewhat similar. I would not place the 5 ever as the house edge is too high.

Thank you!
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2392
June 8th, 2018 at 11:10:07 AM permalink
Quote: Craps457

If I am assuming a \$10 bet on field, only betting it once a point is established, my calculations are as follows:
Assuming 100 rolls per hour:
70 rolls that are not come out rolls
\$10 x .2.78% x 100 = \$19.46 theo loss

Is the above calculation correct?

well, no
100 should be 70, I think you are after
so I get \$10* 1/36 *70 = 700/36 = \$19.44

for 100 bets = 1000/36

I think you have the part about a one roll bet correct.
The Field bet IS an action bet.

John Wayne (action Actor) used to play the Field when the 5 was in it
interesting

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5222
June 8th, 2018 at 11:48:36 AM permalink
Hi Craps457,

Sally I think correctly pointed out your question about 70 roles, then your calculation of 100 roles.

In general... Expected Value (EV) can be summarized in this equation: EV = (NumBets*AvgBet)*(HouseEdge)

Where the NumBetsis the number of bets made, such as blackjack hand, spins on roulette wheel, or single bet dice throws in craps.

Thus, in your case of 70 rolls of the field bet (which can also be bet during the come out, by the way)... EV = (70*10)*(-.0278) = -\$19.46

Also, I'm not super familiar with the place bet divided among the average roles, perhaps that's worked in or not, but the HE of the Pass Line is 1.41% from the placement of the bet until the resolution. I don't know whether it takes the average number of roles in to consideration or not, but every time you place the place bet, it does in fact have a 1.41% HE on it.

Multiple come bets, just like multiple don't come bets, can be a blessing or a curse, pending how the turn goes. Really though, it's the EXACT SAME as if you placed 10 Pass Line bets for 10 points in a row, or if you placed 10 Pass Line + Come Bets in a row. The only thing here is frequency. Since you're playing faster you're going to up your bets per hour and thus you're expected loss will be higher as well. It comes down to comfort. If you don't like having that much money on the table, then don't do it. If you get bored and want to place some come bets, then go for it. Not really any right or wrong approach here.

Lastly, as far as the field bet goes, it's really not that bad of a bet for the craps table. Sure, place 6 and 8 are better, but look at the number of bets on a craps table with a higher HE than 2.78%... nearly all of them. The field, with a 3x pay on one of the 2 or 12 isn't really 'that' bad of a bet.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 7816
June 8th, 2018 at 12:15:53 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

The field, with a 3x pay on one of the 2 or 12 isn't really 'that' bad of a bet.

Being a one-roll bet is the worst part of it, and is part of what is better about place bets. Of course, a player doesn't have to immediately replace it like so many do.

Looking to see how hardway bets compare on a per roll basis, stay tuned. yep, on a per roll basis, hardways are no worse than the field bet, all 2.78% ... see link. The effect of a one roll bet can't be emphasized too much, it just can be deadly.

see a little past halfway down: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2392
June 8th, 2018 at 2:39:12 PM permalink
Quote: Craps457

My situation is that I like playing the field

that is super! I do sometimes too!!
Quote: Craps457

but I know that mathematically it is not a very smart decision as other bets offer a much better house edge, i.e., placing the 6&8 or come bets.

so in moderation??

just remember because it has a relatively high -ev per 70 bets resolved (compared to some other bets)
does not mean one ALWAYS will LOSE over many bets made.

some simple math (using R) shows (same bets made, in other words 'flat betting')
at 70 bets the chance to show a net loss is about 0.564430649
at 700 bets: 0.735356951
at 7000 bets: 0.978596959
(that leaves 0.021403041 probability of not having a net loss or about 1 in 47)

Hmm, the more bets made, the LESS chance one has of showing a profit or breaking even.

I have met many that claim to win more than they lose making the FIELD bet (with 2x and 3x payouts)
some MUST be telling the truth!

now,
at 20,000 bets: 0.99969632
(that leaves 0.00030368 probability of not having a net loss or about 1 in 3293)
looks like we found a wall too high
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Theyought
Joined: Jun 1, 2018
• Posts: 5
June 11th, 2018 at 7:17:05 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

well, no
100 should be 70, I think you are after
so I get \$10* 1/36 *70 = 700/36 = \$19.44

for 100 bets = 1000/36

I think you have the part about a one roll bet correct.
The Field bet IS an action bet.

John Wayne (action Actor) used to play the Field when the 5 was in it
interesting

Sally

I just calculated it and I have the same result
HornHighYo11
Joined: Aug 30, 2014