Low cost low risk darkside system?

So currently my buy ins for craps are about 200 bucks and I play twice a month. I used to play with a lot more. Starting out I liked 3 point molly with full 5x odds on a $5 table, even taking it up to 10/50 when I had more winnings to play with. Currently though I'm just looking to stretch my playtime out as much as I can with $200.

I know it's good to have 10x your average bet, so I figure I can have around $20 on the table at a time. For a warm or hot table I like to do PL with 1x odds and then $6 6 and 8. I take 4 hits and then start pressing out and then up with a take/press progression. If a point is hit I'll take 2-3 hits then continue the press where I left off. Its been pretty fun.

But I need something for when the table is cold that works with my bankroll. I've tried a few and had success with good luck (for me anyone, sorry light siders) but the bankroll requirements are often too high. Lately I've been thinking of doing a $5 Don't pass with 1x odds and placing the 6 and 8 for $6. Two hits and I take them down and wait for the 7/point to be made, then repeat. I really only intend to use this when the table is cold and there are a lot of seven outs. Advice on this? Any suggestions for any other systems to play with while the table is cold on the cheap?

Thanks!

Quote: Dabba

So currently my buy ins for craps are about 200 bucks and I play twice a month. I used to play with a lot more. Starting out I liked 3 point molly with full 5x odds on a $5 table, even taking it up to 10/50 when I had more winnings to play with. Currently though I'm just looking to stretch my playtime out as much as I can with $200.

I know it's good to have 10x your average bet, so I figure I can have around $20 on the table at a time. For a warm or hot table I like to do PL with 1x odds and then $6 6 and 8. I take 4 hits and then start pressing out and then up with a take/press progression. If a point is hit I'll take 2-3 hits then continue the press where I left off. Its been pretty fun.

But I need something for when the table is cold that works with my bankroll. I've tried a few and had success with good luck (for me anyone, sorry light siders) but the bankroll requirements are often too high. Lately I've been thinking of doing a $5 Don't pass with 1x odds and placing the 6 and 8 for $6. Two hits and I take them down and wait for the 7/point to be made, then repeat. I really only intend to use this when the table is cold and there are a lot of seven outs. Advice on this? Any suggestions for any other systems to play with while the table is cold on the cheap?

Thanks!

Welcome to the forum. If you want to have an intelligent conversation with any of the math/gambling experts here, the first thing you must learn is that there is NO SUCH THING as a warm or cold table. The result of next roll has NOTHING to do with what the previous rolls were. NOTHING. If you cannot understand and agree with that concept you will gain nothing from the answers you will receive.
If your main goal is to last as long as possible the best bet is table minimum on don't pass. If that is too boring for you then adding the place bets you mention will slightly hasten your exit on average. If you have a different goal, such as doubling your initial stake, that's another discussion.

Quote: Dabba

Currently though I'm just looking to stretch my playtime out as much as I can with $200

Assuming you like to have about $20 on the table, bet $10 on pass or don’t pass with 1 x odds. You will have about a 2 in 3 chance of surviving 100 bets, roughly 2 hours of play.

Hmm. I know past rolls of the dice have no effect on future rolls, but I also know there is variance. Sometimes the variance is high in one way or another for a time, which is when you see people bust or make a ton of money. That is what I mean by hot and cold. There's no way to predict variance of course but if you happen to be playing the same side as the variance is.. then you can make money. I know it's all luck and random and a -EV game, but I like to do my best to ride the variances one way or the other.

I do like to play 3 numbers including the point, but I'm always looking for other interesting ways to play to have some fun. I'd like to stay the longest, but wouldnt mind doubling my money either. But I have a feeling if I said if I want the best way to double my money you guys would say place it all on the PL and full odds and pray. I would like something though that can develop to money making on a hot roll.. like a take/press progression. Just on the darkside if possible.

Quote: Dabba

I'd like to stay the longest, but wouldnt mind doubling my money either if possible.

Problem is, those 2 goals generally have an inverse relationship.

Quote: Ace2

Problem is, those 2 goals generally have an inverse relationship.

Figured, which is why I said you'd probably tell me just to make a big PL bet with max odds and pray. Luckily my casino is $5 min.

Walk away when you lose. Any step you take towards session length preservation will inevitably decrease your positive variance in one way or another (aka: if you try to stay alive at a cold table, you'll miss out on a hot roll). Also known as regret.

You're already starting at the table minimum and not pressing immediately. These are my generic answers: Start at lower values (like only bet the 6 OR 8) or press less often (not at all). Those are the two options I see.

Don't hedge. Don't hedge. Don't hedge.

I do walk away when I lose. I lost a lot of money making stupid bets and not adapting my betting to table conditions, but I do have a loss limit, and I also do have a win limit.. which I'm still working on being good with!

Quote: Dabba

I do walk away when I lose. I lost a lot of money making stupid bets and not adapting my betting to table conditions, but I do have a loss limit, and I also do have a win limit.. which I'm still working on being good with!

There's evidence in your statement that you are working with several fallacies, one in particular. The glaring one, hot/cold tables, definitely needs to be quashed. Now you said you know that previous rolls don't effect future rolls, but here you are still are talking about 'table conditions'. Sure, it can be proved that the results of what has taken place already can be deemed good or bad, to say it was a hot or cold table if you like, but you cannot say it will be a hot or cold table since the future starts with the next roll. If you could, your bankroll is gigantic compared to what you would need.

The fact of the matter is Craps is not a good game to play with an inadequate bankroll. If you stick to just making the Pass line bet with little or no odds, it is a boring game, known to have low variance. The usual experience would be watching your bankroll slowly dwindle with some unexciting, minimal ups and downs along the way. I've never seen anybody stick with that.

If you can't produce a big bankroll all the time, should you gamble at all? There are a lot of factors to look at, and I can't address all of them, but assuming you are not at risk to becoming a gambling addict, I think anyone can still play the same way I assume about anyone can and should indulge in some recreation of some kind. Gambling can be some of the best Escape, something most of us need too. It can be a cheap form of recreation compared to some of the other choices out there, like golf.

In your case, I would have to say what I would do is accept that I can't go all the time. I would save up my money, the amounts which you have already deemed to be expendable, till I had $1000 and go to the table with that. If you balk at that amount, then you are working with another fallacy. It is quite possible that your 'total action' would actually be less doing this than the way you have been doing it.

If you want a low risk system, my system really does work to significantly lower the expected loss per hour.

Buy in, but do not bet until a shooter wins two points in a row. I’m not talking about a 7 winner, or a come bet winner, rather, I mean two come out rolls, where roller then rolls the point.

If you bet and the shooter then 7s out, start the process over for next shooter.

If you want to lower your hourly expected loss some more, when the shooter appears to be a male under the age of 40, do not bet, no matter how many points he makes. Males under the age of 40 are negative expectation craps shooters. This is a fact.

When you do bet, bet only the table minimum and max odds you can afford.

Then order a drink, but specify a top shelf alcohol. For example, don’t say ‘martini’, say ‘Belvedere martini in a glass’. This is a positive expectation bet compared to the bar or nightclub.

If you’re playing this system with a friend, and you’re afraid they’ll lose discipline and start betting when they shouldn’t, then whenever a shooter sevens out, point to the table and say loudly to your friends, ‘oh look at how much money everyone lost’. Then order another drink.

If everyone bet using this system, I guarantee the casinos would lose money offering craps and probably pull every craps game. But people don’t have discipline, so that’s not going to happen.

Quote: klimate10

If you want a low risk system, my system really does work to significantly lower the expected loss per hour.

Buy in, but do not bet until a shooter wins two points in a row. I’m not talking about a 7 winner, or a come bet winner, rather, I mean two come out rolls, where roller then rolls the point.

lots of waiting around I wood say so.
that is about 1 in 6 shooters or about 50 rolls. some tables 50 rolls is almost 1 hour.
now if you mean 2 point winners in a row, where a 7 winner or a crap out happened and you have to start over counting the 2 point winners in a row
that is about 1 in 38 shooters, close to 327 rolls. I think you do not mean that one!

Quote: klimate10

If you bet and the shooter then 7s out, start the process over for next shooter.

If you want to lower your hourly expected loss some more, when the shooter appears to be a male under the age of 40, do not bet, no matter how many points he makes. Males under the age of 40 are negative expectation craps shooters. This is a fact.

I would make that under 50 (just ask them!) and over 60! avoid them at all cost!

OP has it figured out.
not enough bankroll to start.
can only win if table is HOT
looking to win when table is cold.
wants to double starting bankroll every session of play.

typical craps player in my opinion. always wanting this and that
bet against OP when OP is shooting the dice!

that would be lots of fun, I do say
Sally

I never said my system was exciting, I just said it would lower the expected loss per hour. That’s why it’s best played with some friends who also happen to be drinking. You can have a pregame party at the craps table for super cheap.

Quote: klimate10

I never said my system was exciting,

very true. I never said it was not, just a lot of waiting around qualifying the shooter. Craps players standing at the table not betting can't be much fun just watching and not betting, thinking of the OP that is.
*****
I said before 2 in a row points is about 1 in 6 shooters.
well, that is actually at least 2 points and does not have to be two in a row.
*****
I think waiting for 2 pass winners in a row
where at least 1 winner is a point winner
would be way more fun and to watch and cheer too
and less waiting to bet.

That is about 21% of all shooters qualify for that one. (less than1 in 5)
those 4 out of 5 that do not qualify for you to start betting
cheer them on anyways.

has to be fun in that
drinks too
less avg loss per hour
Sally

Quote: odiousgambit

A lot of words

I appreciate the devil's advocate. However I think you assume too much. I do not know if the table is/will be hot or cold, but only can judge past rolls. However, I know variance can swing both ways, and over X amount of time it may be net positive or net negative, depending on what X is. I'm not saying I can predict where variance will go, nor will past swings dictate future results, but I think with good betting and bankroll management, and LUCK, you may be able to catch the "wave" long enough to have a positive outcome. Of course, it's equally possible that you get snubbed on every prediction you make and lose your bets nearly every time. I've had both things happen, but it's nice when things work out.

Secondly, I'd rather play more often with smaller bankrolls of 2-300. The only thing that having 1k would do to my action is increase my center bets. If I have $200, I play with 20ish on the table. If I have 1000, I play with 100ish. On the light side I pretty much play 3 point molly or 6/8 $6 place bets and 1x odds on pass. I sometimes will do PL and 2x come bets with 1x odds but I'd be happier playing that with 1000 so I can use full odds, but otherwise I play the same action, just larger bets on the same thing. As it is right now, I'd rather risk less.

My main question is... is there an equivalent to my play-style on the darkside that I can use when I feel that's the way I should bet? Don't pass with place 6/8 seems like a hedge. Don't pass with 2x Don't comes seems risky, at least compared to say $10 on the dont pass by itself. I've been testing out a $10 don't pass with a place 6 and 8 for $6, and then turning my bets off with 1-2 hits, but still not sure if that's the way to go.

Long story short I'm looking for something on the darkside with about the same action and equivalent house edge.

Quote: Dabba

I appreciate the devil's advocate.

kinda funny considering a post I made on another thread. But never mind that, I'm glad you are keeping an open mind.

Quote:

However I think you assume too much. I do not know if the table is/will be hot or cold, but only can judge past rolls. However, I know variance can swing both ways, and over X amount of time it may be net positive or net negative, depending on what X is. I'm not saying I can predict where variance will go, nor will past swings dictate future results, but I think with good betting and bankroll management, and LUCK, you may be able to catch the "wave" long enough to have a positive outcome.

There *is* no wave.

Quote:

Of course, it's equally possible that you get snubbed on every prediction you make and lose your bets nearly every time. I've had both things happen, but it's nice when things work out.

Examine the last two statements you made and just admit that both things cannot be true simultaneously.

Quote:

Secondly, I'd rather play more often with smaller bankrolls of 2-300. The only thing that having 1k would do to my action is increase my center bets. If I have $200, I play with 20ish on the table. If I have 1000, I play with 100ish. On the light side I pretty much play 3 point molly or 6/8 $6 place bets and 1x odds on pass. I sometimes will do PL and 2x come bets with 1x odds but I'd be happier playing that with 1000 so I can use full odds, but otherwise I play the same action, just larger bets on the same thing. As it is right now, I'd rather risk less.

OK

Quote:

My main question is... is there an equivalent to my play-style on the darkside that I can use when I feel that's the way I should bet? Don't pass with place 6/8 seems like a hedge. Don't pass with 2x Don't comes seems risky, at least compared to say $10 on the dont pass by itself. I've been testing out a $10 don't pass with a place 6 and 8 for $6, and then turning my bets off with 1-2 hits, but still not sure if that's the way to go.

Long story short I'm looking for something on the darkside with about the same action and equivalent house edge.

Unfortunately I think you are overthinking this. Craps is purely a game that can be played with not much in action and be boring, and the only fix to 'boring' is to put more in action. Fortunately, you can put a lot of that action into zero house edge bets. Unfortunately, doing so raises the variance a lot, creating wild swings ... this is very bad for a small bankroll. Life can be unfair in many ways, and is often unfair to someone not well heeled. Gambling in general can be very cruel; it is the nature of the beast.

Edit: Can't post links, tried to show my bankroll in wincraps while making the same bets. It is a waveform with peaks and troughs that goes up and down.

There are waves in the fact that things will swing in your favor or out of your favor for a certain period of time. Those period of times may be one roll, or a string of 10 rolls, but if you make the same bets you will see your charted bankroll vary like the picture I posted, which represents the variance. If you change your bets then it won't be as well represented in your bankroll chart.

Maybe we are just understanding each other. When I say "Ride the wave" I mean that I hope with LUCK I can bet the right way on the upswings and the wrong way on the downswings. I'm not saying I can predict it, but I hope that my bets will go the same way the wave does for a decent time to make a profit.

Quote: Dabba

Edit: Can't post links, tried to show my bankroll in wincraps while making the same bets. It is a waveform with peaks and troughs that goes up and down.

There are waves in the fact that things will swing in your favor or out of your favor for a certain period of time. Those period of times may be one roll, or a string of 10 rolls, but if you make the same bets you will see your charted bankroll vary like the picture I posted, which represents the variance. If you change your bets then it won't be as well represented in your bankroll chart.

Maybe we are just understanding each other. When I say "Ride the wave" I mean that I hope with LUCK I can bet the right way on the upswings and the wrong way on the downswings. I'm not saying I can predict it, but I hope that my bets will go the same way the wave does for a decent time to make a profit.

I played with wincraps quite a bit for a while, and, yes, you do get a sine wave effect on your bankroll. Looking at it, it seems as though perhaps you can predict the period if not the amplitude. But it is an illusion, you say yourself you can't predict it.

I think in time if you keep an open mind you will square your two beliefs, one being that rolls are random, and the other that you can hope to detect a future trend. And that squaring will be that 'random' precludes any 'prediction'; that to go on hope in the face of that is just meaningless in terms of strategy.

I know what you're saying and I agree it seems dumb to say I'd like to bet a certain way on a hunch about the direction of the wave also knowing each rolls is completely random.

But, back to my original post. Are there any darkside bets that would be the equivalent of the PL and place 6/8 or PL and 2 come bets with 1x odds on each?

Quote: Dabba

I know what you're saying and I agree it seems dumb to say I'd like to bet a certain way on a hunch about the direction of the wave also knowing each rolls is completely random.

But, back to my original post. Are there any darkside bets that would be the equivalent of the PL and place 6/8 or PL and 2 come bets with 1x odds on each?

You can't go darkside on the rightside bets such as middle table bets. Huge HE would now be in your favor and they'd have to take 20% commissions or somesuch.

There is such a thing as lay bets, so maybe you can find some combinations you like there. The Wizard covers it:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/

You can always play don't come with odds. Laying the four and ten would be the dark side equivalent to placing the six and eight.

Quote: odiousgambit

The fact of the matter is Craps is not a good game to play with an inadequate bankroll. If you stick to just making the Pass line bet with little or no odds, it is a boring game, known to have low variance. The usual experience would be watching your bankroll slowly dwindle with some unexciting, minimal ups and downs along the way.

The most boring game in the casino is in the eye of the gambler. For example, I'll never, ever, understand Roulette. The rules and the game are simple enough , but I'll never understand it's appeal. To each his own.

I'd have to disagree with how you think craps has minimal ups and downs. It has more wild swings than any other table game in the casino.

What's wrong with a low EV? Beats me.

Quote: Lucca3927

The most boring game in the casino is in the eye of the gambler. For example, I'll never, ever, understand Roulette. The rules and the game are simple enough , but I'll never understand it's appeal. To each his own.

I'd have to disagree with how you think craps has minimal ups and downs. It has more wild swings than any other table game in the casino.

What's wrong with a low EV? Beats me.

I'm sorry, but the variance of the pass line bet alone [perhaps that wasn't clear] is known, having a standard deviation of 'one'. That is about as minimal for ups and downs as it gets. see link.

Now, the way I play Craps, and the way I have seen anybody else play Craps for the most part, has a lot of ups and downs, but that comes from making other bets with a lot of variance like the free odds and the middle table bets [almost never in my case for the latter]

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

I was looking to similar darkside strats as far as money on the table and similar EV.

I may just stick to the Don't pass and 1 Don't come.

However, question on the odds on the don't side. Why would I bet 10$ on the flat and get paid 1:1 instead of having to lay odds which pay less than the bet? The only advantage I can see is risking less on a natural on the come out.

Quote: Lucca3927

I'd have to disagree with how you think craps has minimal ups and downs. It has more wild swings than any other table game in the casino.

You must not have played Mississippi Stud then.

Quote: Dabba

I was looking to similar darkside strats as far as money on the table and similar EV.

I may just stick to the Don't pass and 1 Don't come.

However, question on the odds on the don't side. Why would I bet 10$ on the flat and get paid 1:1 instead of having to lay odds which pay less than the bet? The only advantage I can see is risking less on a natural on the come out.

Dealers and other players will say that to you to discourage darkside odds betting.

The casino is paid 4:1 but on the darkside for 'any 7' you know; if they had to prove they had the money they would put the $4 next to your $1 when you bet that. So when they take your $1 you should say "you dumbasses got paid less than 1:1 , wow, what a great bet for me, I'm betting $20 this time!!"

I still confused

Why should I risk more money to get paid less on darkside odds? Why shouldnt I just play a 10 dollar flat instead of a $5 to get paid 1:1?


Like I said, the only benefit seems to be you risk less on the come out. But even though you have the advantage when the point is on... it feels bad to risk more money than you're getting back.

If you can't figure out why it would be nice to put $4 up to win $1 , which is not even money in the least, then there is no hope for you [referring to my example]

Quote: Dabba

I still confused

many are

Quote: Dabba

Why should I risk more money to get paid less on darkside odds?

the bet is now a straight up favorite to win. and just like in sportsbetting, when you bet for the favorite to win straight up you LAY the odds. Bet more to win less.

at craps
The 4 or 10 has only 3 ways to win and 6 to lose on the pass
on the dpass it is 6 ways to win and 3 to lose

WHAT should that bet pay then?

6 ways to win and only 3 ways to lose. not even close to an even money payoff.

I mean, you now own the casino, what is the payoff for the players?

Quote: Dabba

But even though you have the advantage when the point is on... it feels bad to risk more money than you're getting back.

feeling bad does nothing to change the probability of winning.
You Lay the odds, risk more to win less, because that is how payouts are figured.
the odds have 0% house edge.

Oh, oh
you do not understand house edge and why the casino short pays a win
on say the pass line or the don't pass but not on the odds.

I am not a very good teacher

the formula for a 'fair' payout (0% house edge)
is
q/p

both the pass and dpass suffer about a 2.8 cent short pay
on every win
*****
for lay odds on the 4
p= 2/3 (do you know why?)
q = 1/3

a totally FAIR payoff would be
1/3 divided by 2/3 = 1/3 * 3/2 = 1/2

that is why Laying the odds of $1000 pays only $500
it is perfectly FAIR (NO house edge)
*****
I think you should seek out hot tables only and
leave when you know the table is now cold.
should have way more fun that way, you agree?

because you do not understand the dark side bets and payoffs...
Sally

Interesting you mention male shooters over 40, or worse yet, over 50. I'm 75 (yes, I can't believe it myself). The Craps session, the session before, I had a 60 minute roll that made lots of money for a bunch of folks. When I finally 7-out, I got a "standing ovation" from all the players. I'm a dice setting shooter and at no time during that 60 minutes did I feel anything but positive about my next roll.
I know Hot Table vs. Cold Table is said to be an issue but I don't know.....I do feel your attitude going into this game doesn't hurt if you're positive.