More Validation That Pass Line Bet Is A Bad Bet
September 27th, 2017 at 12:25:12 PM
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I flew out of JFK a few weeks ago so I decided to stop in Resorts World Casino. They only have electronic games there. I have played the bubble craps there previously and did my usual routine of 'hit n run'. This time was annoying since they changed the rules of the game since I last played. I always play all the numbers (4,5,6,8,9,10) without playing the pass or don't pass. Hit a number or two and walk. Well, this time I tried to play all the numbers but the system would not allow me to place the point. The machine is trying to lure people into playing the pass line.... and if you play the pass line, you cant go 'off' on your pass line bet, which inevitably loses a good percentage of the time. I didnt like what the machine was doing so I walked right out of the casino and didnt play.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
October 2nd, 2017 at 6:56:13 AM
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I was at Caesars this past week. I played my usual in an out routine. Did well. I proceeded to hang at the table while I waited for my girlfriend. I was there for 30 minutes and watched 12 consecutive 7 outs. Not one point made. So who here still thinks that the pass line is the best bet in the house? I dont care how may x odd you get on the pass, it is a horrible bet. The probabilities are not in your favor as I have stated many times before. Don't let the high x times odds lure you to the pass line.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
October 2nd, 2017 at 9:08:53 AM
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Quote: WatchMeWinI didnt like what the machine was doing so I walked right out of the casino and didnt play.
Was it saying rude or inappropriate things to you? Did it touch you in an impure way?
October 2nd, 2017 at 12:55:50 PM
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Quote: WatchMeWinI was at Caesars this past week. I played my usual in an out routine. Did well. I proceeded to hang at the table while I waited for my girlfriend. I was there for 30 minutes and watched 12 consecutive 7 outs. Not one point made. So who here still thinks that the pass line is the best bet in the house? I dont care how may x odd you get on the pass, it is a horrible bet. The probabilities are not in your favor as I have stated many times before. Don't let the high x times odds lure you to the pass line.
The pass line is not in your favor after the point is established as there is a (6/11*10/24 + 6/10*8/24 + 6/9*6/24) 59.39% probability that you will 7 out before making the point. Of course, this is balanced by an 11.11% probability that you are going to win a unit before the point is established.
The don't pass of course is in your favor as there is only a 40.61% chance that the point will hit before sevening out. But you also have an 22.22% chance that you will lose a unit before the point is established and an 8.333% chance that you will win a unit. Of course you will find that
-8/36 + 3/36 + 24/36*(.5939394) -24/36*(1-.5939394) = -.013636.
The don't pass is slightly better than the pass:
=8/36-4/36+10/36*5/11+8/36*4/10+6/36*3/9-10/36*6/11-8/36*6/10-6/36*6/9 = -.01414.
Yes over 1000 $10 bets the difference in expected loss is a $5.05050, just slightly more than 1/2 a unit, and way inside variance.
Numbers don't lie. Do what you want.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
October 2nd, 2017 at 2:34:17 PM
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1,414% does not seem bad to me. If 1.414 is bad, what is good??
October 2nd, 2017 at 2:34:17 PM
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1,414% does not seem bad to me. If 1.414 is bad, what is good??
October 2nd, 2017 at 7:15:18 PM
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It's about 1 in 500 chance for 12 seven-outs to happen without any points made. So if you play a couple nights you'll probably see something like that once or twice. And you'll also have some fantastic winning streaks. That's variance and it's what makes gambling fun.
Even taking just double odds, the house edge is only about 0.60 % on total money wagered.
Very cheap entertainment if you ask me.
Even taking just double odds, the house edge is only about 0.60 % on total money wagered.
Very cheap entertainment if you ask me.
It’s all about making that GTA
October 2nd, 2017 at 11:02:29 PM
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Quote: Ace2It's about 1 in 500 chance for 12 seven-outs to happen without any points made. So if you play a couple nights you'll probably see something like that once or twice. And you'll also have some fantastic winning streaks. That's variance and it's what makes gambling fun.
Even taking just double odds, the house edge is only about 0.60 % on total money wagered.
Very cheap entertainment if you ask me.
Once established the probability of making your point is about 40% IIRC.
The math is
ways to roll a 4/10 -> 6
ways to roll a 5/9 -> 8
ways to roll a 6/8 -> 10
Probability of setting point as a 4/10 -> 6/24 = 0.25
Probability of setting point as a 5/9 -> 8/24 = 1/3 or 0.333333
Probability of setting point as a 6/8 -> 10/24 = 0.416666666
Probability of setting and making a 4/10 = ( 1/4 ) * ( 1/3 ) = 1/12
Probability of setting and making a 5/9 = ( 1/3 ) * ( 4/10 ) = 4/30
Probability of setting and making a 6/8 = ( 10 / 24 ) * ( 5 / 11 ) = 50/264
========================================================
Total probability of making your point is ( 1/12 ) + ( 4/30 ) + ( 50/264 ) = 0.4060606060
From that, the probability of 12 shooters to fail to make a point is ( 1 - .40606060 ) ^ 12 = ( 1/519 )
So yeah, about 1 in 500.
What WAY more remote is the chance of making 12 points in a row.
That's 1 in 49763
aahigh.com
October 3rd, 2017 at 12:07:15 AM
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Correct. At ~60/40 roughly 50% more remote per occurrence. That compounds quite a bit to the 12th.
That is why your odds bet gets paid roughly 1.5 to 1 when it hits, on average .
And for the flat bet it's mostly offset by your come out rolls winning on 7/11 twice as often as losing on craps.
That is why your odds bet gets paid roughly 1.5 to 1 when it hits, on average .
And for the flat bet it's mostly offset by your come out rolls winning on 7/11 twice as often as losing on craps.
It’s all about making that GTA
October 3rd, 2017 at 12:24:03 AM
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hard to believe in this day and age people are still writing that place bets are better than the pass line....delusional.
get second you pig
October 3rd, 2017 at 1:56:45 AM
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Quote: ontariodealerhard to believe in this day and age people are still writing that place bets are better than the pass line....delusional.
They never seem to consider the come out roll winning possibilities, any 7 or an 11. Offset of course by the craps of 2,3, or 12....
October 3rd, 2017 at 5:49:38 AM
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ALL gamblers are deluded. Festive atmosphere, pretty girls, booze, music, click-clunk of coins, etc.Quote: ontariodealer...delusional.
ALL gamblers know to never buy insurance but few could explain why.
Line bets versus Place bets.... heck, pick your own rule here, it makes little difference.
October 3rd, 2017 at 6:33:24 AM
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Who knew the house had an edge on that bet? You'd think there might be a wizard somewhere who would start a website and tell the truth about that!
Oh, but now there are two wizards out there - go yell it on the mountain!
the casinos will be pulling their craps tables soon, the word is out!
Oh, but now there are two wizards out there - go yell it on the mountain!
the casinos will be pulling their craps tables soon, the word is out!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 3rd, 2017 at 8:01:27 AM
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Quote: ontariodealerhard to believe in this day and age people are still writing that place bets are better than the pass line....delusional.
I don't find it hard to believe. There are people who don't understand math and rather than defer to those that do, instead choose to believe that math isn't real.
October 3rd, 2017 at 8:04:31 AM
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It's hard to believe that anybody thinks any bet on the table is a "good bet."
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
October 3rd, 2017 at 9:25:11 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesIt's hard to believe that anybody thinks any bet on the table is a "good bet."
It's hard to believe anyone doesn't grasp that taking or laying "odds" behind/beside a line bet, in craps, is a good bet, a fair bet, with no house advantage, considered after the point is established.
October 3rd, 2017 at 9:30:08 AM
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Quote: NokTangIt's hard to believe anyone doesn't grasp that taking or laying "odds" behind/beside a line bet, in craps, is a good bet, a fair bet, with no house advantage, considered after the point is established.
Read Exhibit CAA. The fact that you should be taking odds is a myth.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
October 3rd, 2017 at 2:57:18 PM
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It is never SHOULD. Its your money and your time. Odds will be good if you win but will chew up your bankroll if you don't.Quote: IbeatyouracesRead Exhibit CAA. The fact that you should be taking odds is a myth.
It can be good to have odds so that your at risk money is more heavily in the 'fair bet' column, but it is never a SHOULD.
October 3rd, 2017 at 7:35:34 PM
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Nothing is free.
Let's say you go to the casino tonight and play 4 hours at a $10 table. At 1.4% edge the pass line will cost you about $30. But everything else is included at no extra charge...your much larger odds bets and your drinks too.
Where else can you get a night of entertainment for 30 bucks total.
Let's say you go to the casino tonight and play 4 hours at a $10 table. At 1.4% edge the pass line will cost you about $30. But everything else is included at no extra charge...your much larger odds bets and your drinks too.
Where else can you get a night of entertainment for 30 bucks total.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Oct 3, 2017
It’s all about making that GTA
October 4th, 2017 at 6:24:28 AM
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I have to marvel that the idea behind free odds does get mangled by people who are competent at math. Maybe it's because it's easier to understand in plain English:
*Free Odds are a bet that is offered that has no house edge
the only further insight that is absolutely necessary is
*The bet is not offered unless a particular bet with a house edge has been placed
reasonable conclusions:
*no house edge is good
*increasing the proportion of your gambling action without house edge vs that against an edge is good
*the free odds plus the qualifying bet in combination never becomes +EV
unreasonable conclusion:
*100% of your action should be against a house edge instead , since zero edge is not player edge
but also an unreasonable but common conclusion:
*increasing your action with which you were comfortable in order to take the free odds will help you win more
*Free Odds are a bet that is offered that has no house edge
the only further insight that is absolutely necessary is
*The bet is not offered unless a particular bet with a house edge has been placed
reasonable conclusions:
*no house edge is good
*increasing the proportion of your gambling action without house edge vs that against an edge is good
*the free odds plus the qualifying bet in combination never becomes +EV
unreasonable conclusion:
*100% of your action should be against a house edge instead , since zero edge is not player edge
but also an unreasonable but common conclusion:
*increasing your action with which you were comfortable in order to take the free odds will help you win more
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 4th, 2017 at 7:29:10 AM
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Quote: Ace2Nothing is free.
Let's say you go to the casino tonight and play 4 hours at a $10 table. At 1.4% edge the pass line will cost you about $30. But everything else is included at no extra charge...your much larger odds bets and your drinks too.
Where else can you get a night of entertainment for 30 bucks total.
The problem is that it is "on average" $30 in total. You generally need a much larger bankroll than that.
And how many regular crap players pay the pass line only and don't place a 6/8 at 1.52%, and the occasional 5/9 at 4%.
And there are casinos who promote zero odds bets like the 4/10 no commission bet paying true odds. ($20 pays $40).
But yeah, the best bet on the table is pass/don't pass with max odds, if you can handle the variance.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
October 6th, 2017 at 8:35:18 PM
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Quote: boymimbo
And there are casinos who promote zero odds bets like the 4/10 no commission bet paying true odds. ($20 pays $40).
Please explain "zero odds" and where you can find place bets available at true correct odds? Thanks.
October 7th, 2017 at 12:49:33 PM
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Quote: NokTangPlease explain "zero odds" and where you can find place bets available at true correct odds? Thanks.
I think that in this case a better term for 'zero odds' would have been "zero house edge".
Place bets are not paid at correct odds but one can "buy" those true correct payout amounts and get one of those "buy" lammers positioned atop your stack of chips.
Making use of an Odds Bet to gamble beyond one's comfort zone CAN help a player win, but he must be lucky and he must take those winnings and walk real soon for bad variance will surely show up and chase away Good variance.
