Craps House Edge Comparison

What is the House Edge for the following 2 strategies:
Strategy #1: Basic One unit bet on Don't Pass during come-out roll followed by max odds (3-4-5X) bet
Strategy #2: Strategy #1 followed by continuous Don't Come bets including max odds
I am wondering if Strategy #2 increases the house Edge since rolling a 7 will win placed bets, but lose the live don't come bet

My gut answer is, the house edge is the same, since each Don't Come bet is the same as a Don't Pass bet except that the DP bet just happens to start on the comeout roll. However, since Strategy 2 exposes money to bets with a positive house edge at a faster rate, you are likely to lose more money over a particular number of rolls with Strategy 2 than with Strategy 1.

Also keep in mind that a 2, 3, or 12 wins the DC bet while keeping the odds bets in play. Of course, an 11 loses the DC and keeps the odds in play,

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Also keep in mind that a 2, 3, or 12 wins the DC bet while keeping the odds bets in play. Of course, an 11 loses the DC and keeps the odds in play,

12 does not win a Don't Come bet. Every place I've ever seen has it as a push. You can always tell when the dealers tap the table a couple of times.

Quote: SanchoPanza

12 does not win a Don't Come bet. Every place I've ever seen has it as a push. You can always tell when the dealers tap the table a couple of times.

d'oh

The house edge will be unchanged by how often, in continuously betting the Don't, 7 or 11 is rolled on the come-out, 0.273% per bet made. As each bet is made, it faces the same chances, the past does not matter and the next roll is random - as long as this is true, the edge can't change.

The issue of Variance, though, can be impacted by hedging, so the question becomes whether it is a type of hedging. In a similar question for right-side bettors, the Wizard opined that it is the opposite of hedging. I might be able to find that thread, but since this is darkside betting, I guess it possible that wouldnt answer this question on the matter.

I spent some a session darkside betting yesterday and experienced the phenomenon of the house steadily taking the money of the right-siders and the dark-siders all at the same time! The 7 in particular, as you note, can serve the house against the don't and not do much for right-siders. When I played the DC it was particularly maddeningly frequent to have it knock me off while being a 7-out against the pass line. As time went on I did OK but was down a bit. It was hard to say whether the right-siders benefited since they were all devoted to the sucker bets and would likely get killed in all scenarios.

House edge is a really bad mechanic when comparing two strategies of unequal exposure. If by house edge you mean estimated loss per unit bet, then it does not change. However, expected loss increases dramatically (would require math to find out how far you get on avg) because your overall action is higher.

I think the answer to what you are asking is a categorical "No".

Further: Every roll is independent, the fact that bets may be correlated makes no difference. Let's say you place a don't pass, a 5 is rolled, then you place a don't come. This is no different from you waiting until the first DP is resolved and placing another DP. I mean there is a difference, but not in terms of expected loss (considering these rolls ONLY, not the continuous betting that would increase it in the end).

I understand that each roll is independent and bets individually carry the same risk/outcome, but when combined, it seems that the risk per unit changes.
If after few runs, I end up with few dark side bets., it seems the odds of rolling one of the numbers occupied will increase dramatically. I wish I can run a simulation and see the expected outcome per unit with standalone DP bets vs DP+1,2,3 DC bets vs. DP + continuous DC bets.

Quote: roumin

I understand that each roll is independent and bets individually carry the same risk/outcome, but when combined, it seems that the risk per unit changes.

"Risk" is not a term you see much in gambling writing, at least not as a meaningful single concept, it seems to be a term that can have different meanings. So I think going down that road will confuse folks.

I suggest you get a grip on the meaning of Variance; since you can see the posts saying the HE does not change have not been challenged, that pretty much leaves Variance as what can change. To grasp it, one good example has been roulette. No matter how many numbers you bet, the HE stays the same. Yet to bet whole sections something is changing, right? If you bet 80% of the numbers, you have to win more often, so we would say you have lowered the Variance. Bet one number and you seldom win, but you win big when you do. You have increased the Variance. Think about betting all the numbers, including the zeroes. You hand over 38 units and you receive back 35 plus your bet on the one number that pays. Each time this would happen exactly, so now you have reduced the Variance to exactly nothing!

I found the thread where your question was approached from right-side betting.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/853-argument-about-hedging-in-craps/

so, do my odds improve or worsen with don't come bets after a don't pass bet?

Quote: roumin

so, do my odds improve or worsen with don't come bets after a don't pass bet?

I would ask why you didn't read the thread, but on reflection, I can remember when some of the concepts were so much 'greek' to me as well.

I still think you need to bone up on basics, to ask better questions. But I will try to answer:

*The stipulation that the house edge does not change has not been challenged but supported instead.

But there are two things that can change, so that makes it confusing. Here they are again:

*Where you show putting more into action by continuing to make DC bets has the effect of putting more up against that HE. So, your expected loss has to increase. That the HE doesn't actually change makes it confusing I guess.

*Continuing to do max odds with the DC bets also increases the Variance. Variance is a concept you need to grasp, and although it is similar to 'luck' it doesn't mean that exactly since it usually also means 'wider swings'. Look again at the roulette example upthread.

I guess you want a simple answer to "do my odds improve or worsen with don't come bets after a don't pass bet?" but I don't want to try to give such to just the concept of "odds" - which I'm not even sure you are using correctly in terms of what you want to know.

I am not mathematically challenged, but statistics did give me a headache in school. It doesn't surprise or offend me that I am not asking good questions, but I think you can read between the lines. I guess I was struggling to understand (or accept) that HE doesn't change with continuous DC bets, but I think the fog is starting to clear. To summarize: DC Bets (one, few or continuous) don't change HE, but increases the variance, thus wider swings.

Quote: roumin

I am not mathematically challenged, but statistics did give me a headache in school. It doesn't surprise or offend me that I am not asking good questions, but I think you can read between the lines. I guess I was struggling to understand (or accept) that HE doesn't change with continuous DC bets, but I think the fog is starting to clear. To summarize: DC Bets (one, few or continuous) don't change HE, but increases the variance, thus wider swings.

Very good! I'd modify that to: To summarize: DC Bets (one, few or continuous) don't change HE, but betting continuously increases the variance, thus wider swings.