Iron cross reduction variant

So I've come up with an idea, mind you I'm a big action junkie. I hate standing there and not doing anything. So my thought is this:

Bank roll: $3000

Place the numbers 5,6,8 (100, 120, 120) with a $20 feild.
After a place bet win, drop to $75, $90, $90 for place bets and drop the feild to $15.
After second win on your place bets, from them down to $25, $30, $30 with a $5 feild.
At this point you have $120 in your rack and all your bets are on house money. Alternatively you could pull all bets and be up by $210.

My win goal per session would be $500, playing roughly 8 sessions in 36 hours.

I know that the iron cross is a losing strategy from the get go, and that with this variant you could lose big if you go point-7-out. For all of you math guys out there, what would be the over all house edge if you manage to get the two place bets to win?

Quote: Wildwillis1

Bank roll: $3000

My win goal per session would be $500, playing roughly 8 sessions in 36 hours.

Not going to work out the house edge, especially if you choose to guarantee to win.

But,
Probability of winning one session is close to 3000/3500=85%

Play 8 sessions bringing 3000 to the table each time
Expect to win your goal on 7 of those occasions ± 7 and bust out on 1 session ±7

Roughly.

Quote: OnceDear

Expect to win your goal on 7 of those occasions ± 7 and bust out on 1 session ±7

Roughly.

Are you suggesting that after 8 sessions he should expect (roughly) to have won (7 * $500 = $3,500) and lost (1 * $3,000 = $3,000) and be up $500 overall? I'm not very confident that this would be an accurate expectation for playing only negative-expectation wagers throughout.

Quote: Doc

Are you suggesting that after 8 sessions he should expect (roughly) to have won (7 * $500 = $3,500) and lost (1 * $3,000 = $3,000) and be up $500 overall? I'm not very confident that this would be an accurate expectation for playing only negative-expectation wagers throughout.

Well, yes. But I did say 'Roughly' I didn't say 'on average'

The calculated number was 6.85714285714 but he's more likely to win or lose an integral number of times. 7 was the closer integer and ( ignoring edge ) the more likely.

6.85714285714 * 500 = 3428.57 won and lose (8-6.85714285714)*3000 =3428.57

That clearly assumes a perfectly fair game with no house edge. A game that is not available.

Would you be happier if we guestimate that he will win 6 sessions( 3,000 ) and lose 2 (6,000) ?

Quote: OnceDear

That clearly assumes a perfectly fair game with no house edge. A game that is not available.

He described craps.

I guess it comes down to what you mean by calculating an expected value. To my thinking, if your trial is to flip a fair coin three times, the "expected" number of "Heads" is 1.5, even though you will never experience that specific result no matter how many three-flip trials you run. I just think it is misleading to suggest an "expected" outcome of a $500 net win for a combination of negative expectation wagers.

Quote: Doc

He described craps.

and I didn't specify the game. Irrelevant. He described a strategy with house edge of about 1.5% didn't he? Aggressive wagering thus not very many play throughs!

Quote:

To my thinking, if your trial is to flip a fair coin three times, the "expected" number of "Heads" is 1.5, even though you will never experience that specific result.

I didn't mention 'Expected value' for which I'd agree with your assertion. I expressed what he might realistically expect to actually happen. I couldn't be bothered to show that level of sophistication.

Quote:

I just think it is misleading to suggest an "expected" outcome of a $500 net win for a combination of negative expectation wagers.

Point taken. But I could have added that there was a darned good chance that he'd win 6 and lose 2 for an overall loss of $3,000
With my ± symbol, I did make it clear that there was a real possibility that he could lose 8 sessions ( By the way, I used ± 7 wrongly because he couldn't win 14 of the 8 sessions. But that's just being picky.)
$:o)

Quote: Wildwillis1

So I've come up with an idea, mind you I'm a big action junkie. I hate standing there and not doing anything. So my thought is this:

Bank roll: $3000

Place the numbers 5,6,8 (100, 120, 120) with a $20 feild.
After a place bet win, drop to $75, $90, $90 for place bets and drop the feild to $15.
After second win on your place bets, from them down to $25, $30, $30 with a $5 feild.
At this point you have $120 in your rack and all your bets are on house money. Alternatively you could pull all bets and be up by $210.

My win goal per session would be $500, playing roughly 8 sessions in 36 hours.

I know that the iron cross is a losing strategy from the get go, and that with this variant you could lose big if you go point-7-out. For all of you math guys out there, what would be the over all house edge if you manage to get the two place bets to win?

Not a bad strategy. As you said, if a 7 out comes right away, then you pick up you tail and start a new day. No matter how you play from the 'light' side, if the 7 comes right away, you are going to lose... If you play the 'dark' side, then you win. If you hit 3 boxes, then, yes, you are playing with house money... but leaving at that point is the best scenario. Hit and Run! The longer you stay, the more inevitable it becomes that you will lose. This is the best case scenario I have experienced in 20 years of dice playing.
oh yea, I would be remiss if I did not mention to stay away from negative energy on the tables! ha the board loves that!

So, mind you I'm rather simple minded when it comes to probably, I should expect to win most of the time. I feel that an 85% chance of a win is pretty good. However I do get your point in your later post that even tho I have a 85% chance of winning that I could bust out right a way.

I also should have clarified that the $3000 is my entire bankroll for the trip. Maybe 8 sessions is pushing it but if I could pull 2 wins I would be happy as well.

Quote: Wildwillis1

So, mind you I'm rather simple minded when it comes to probably, I should expect to win most of the time. I feel that an 85% chance of a win is pretty good. However I do get your point in your later post that even tho I have a 85% chance of winning that I could bust out right a way.

I also should have clarified that the $3000 is my entire bankroll for the trip. Maybe 8 sessions is pushing it but if I could pull 2 wins I would be happy as well.

I think you have a good idea of what you are doing. Managed expectations is essential. People that look to hit the home run every time are more often than not going to lose. I look to bat in many singles rather than the home run... meaning I take a couple of numbers at a pop and walk away from the table.... more often than not, you can get 2 or 3 numbers (box numbers 4,5,6,8,9,10) before the 7 out. I typically take a 3000 bank roll as well every trip to the casino. I take my shots and go 880 inside ( 200 on 5,6,8,9 (240-6,8) and 100 a piece on the 4,10) , so Im risking 1080 , which is 1/3 of my bank roll. I hit either 2 or 3 numbers and I take my bets off and down. Walk away. In and out.. If I get hit with the 7 right away.. its ok, I continue to do the same with same patience and management repeated.. Every roll there is a 16% chance of losing . Although my risk reward ration is 4x, I dont mind because I rather play the probability of having a 66% chance of winning and only 16% chance of losing per roll. If you want to iron cross it, then throw in a 20 horn and give yourself another 16% chance of winning combinations. I can tell you after playing so much and for so long.... this is absolutely the best way to play in my opinion as Ive had great success. Not always , but a good amount of the time which far outweigh the losing days.

Quote: Wildwillis1

So, mind you I'm rather simple minded when it comes to probably, I should expect to win most of the time. I feel that an 85% chance of a win is pretty good. However I do get your point in your later post that even tho I have a 85% chance of winning that I could bust out right a way.

I also should have clarified that the $3000 is my entire bankroll for the trip. Maybe 8 sessions is pushing it but if I could pull 2 wins I would be happy as well.

Each Session, you would have to put all of your $3,000 at risk. If you lose session 1 you won't get to play sessions 2 through 8. Win session 1 and then lose session 2, then you sit down at session 3 with just 500 bucks and a hell of a lot of catching up to do, etc.

So...
For each session
85% chance of winning $500
15% chance of losing $3000

And that makes certain assumptions.
Assumes zero edge game, so real game chances of winning probably more like 82% and probability of losing more like 18%
Assumes that you give yourself ABSOLUTELY ZERO probability of winning more than 500 in that session ( by limiting your bets if you get close. )

Now, if your objective is to win a total trip long profit of, say $3000 by utilising $3000, then your probability of success is less than, but approximately $3000/$6000 or 50%. A fair bit less, in practice.

Sessions mean nothing at all. Zip, Zero, Zilch.

8 sessions, 6 sessions, Jeff Sessions, one session. Totally irrelevant. The Universe does not keep track of when you stop for a nap.

>50%. chance of going bust. Not so hot now? You could save several hours of wasted anguish and bet on a coin toss or put it all on red at Roulette.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370

OnceDear, do you play craps? If so, how do you like to play?

Quote: WatchMeWin

OnceDear, do you play craps? If so, how do you like to play?

No, but if I did, I'd like to play it loud and mildly intoxicated $:o)

Quote: OnceDear

No, but if I did, I'd like to play it loud and intoxicated $:o)

Haha... sounds like you like to have fun! We should roll the dice sometime... and get loaded!

Walked into Borgata yesterday. Went straight to my craps game. Put out 200 on each number. Hit 3 boxes. Won 950. Walked out the door. This is almost the iron cross ..just no horn. What else is there to talk about. Best way to play period. Repeat steps 1,2,3. The only way to win is to know when to quit with realistic expectations.

Winning is a mindset. The greatest advantage the casino has is the player that can't stop or doesn't know when to leave while he/she is ahead. DMK = HPS

Hello all !!!!! Well with $3000 bank I would start with $1000. You should be watching (waiting to pounce) on a cycle if it appears. I'd place the 6/8 for 120 and wait. 5 rolls. if one of them hits which probability says they will. Press the bet. Duh !! collect on the second hit. After 5 rolls start come betting at the 80 level and 100 odds. But do it this way. 20 come toss in 60 extra what ever the number is to increase the bet and take 100 odds on it. But keep tossing in the 20 on the come that way your bet stays up if you get repeaters. you've got the money in your bankroll use it. You came to gamble right. If it's one thing I've learned in 45 years of craps it is this. The bigger the bet the bigger the win.

If you hit a cycle and let's say it lasts 15 rolls. The odds are in your favor that several of the numbers are going to repeat. If a seven pops you only really lose your start up money. But if your numbers repeat twice during the cycle then boom your a bigger winner. Take everything down and start again on the next roll. Put your winnings in the back chip row and NEVER EVER invest from it. When you lose your investment money Walk.

Quote: BigJeffsCraps

... You should be watching (waiting to pounce) on a cycle if it appears. ...

Oh Boy!
Wrong on so many levels.

There are no cycles

Quote: OnceDear

Oh Boy!
Wrong on so many levels.

There are no cycles

what's confusing to players is that they see them. It's just that they can only be observed as a past event, and the past will not predict the future. Once the shooter has the dice in his hands for the next throw, we're already staring down the future, regardless of how hot the table was.

As for quitting when ahead, I try to do that, and I recommend it too, as a healthy sort of thing mentally. But it has to be admitted it has no mathematical basis in reality, and it is not a way to beat the house

What are the odds of point 7 out? Here's my thought: place across $2996 ($500 4,10, $500 5,9, $498 6,8), leave up for 1 hit and then leave. I know the odds on rolling a 7 are 1/6 or .16666667, so the chance of a win would be 5/6 or .833333. Does that mean the average point 7 out is .1666667 or 1/6th of the time? Just wanna get my odds right.

Quote: Wildwillis1

What are the odds of point 7 out? Here's my thought: place across $2996 ($500 4,10, $500 5,9, $498 6,8), leave up for 1 hit and then leave. I know the odds on rolling a 7 are 1/6 or .16666667, so the chance of a win would be 5/6 or .833333. Does that mean the average point 7 out is .1666667 or 1/6th of the time? Just wanna get my odds right.

Just placing the 4,5,6,8,9,10 will give you only 66.6% chance of winning (24 combinations out of 36). You excluded the horn portion (2,3,11,12) which are another 6 combinations or 16.6% where nothing happens if you dont bet it. Then you have only 16.6% chance of losing with the (six different) 7 combinations.

Everyone has there own risk tolerance and risk capital for wagering/investing. Playing the probabilities, as stated above, with realistic expectations is important. MDK = HPS

Posting here for upping post count and posting before all these craps players go broke

Quote: WatchMeWin

Just placing the 4,5,6,8,9,10 will give you only 66.6% chance of winning (24 combinations out of 36). You excluded the horn portion (2,3,11,12) which are another 6 combinations or 16.6% where nothing happens if you dont bet it. Then you have only 16.6% chance of losing with the (six different) 7 combinations.

A valid point you have there sir. I've been trying to mess with my planned bets, and basically thinking out loud. The weekend of the 24-26th a buddy and I are heading to foxwoods for some gaming. He's mostly gonna be playing blackjack, which I like and all but I loss interest after awhile(unless I'm winning of course). So basically my goal with craps is to take one hit and run with it and hopefully use my winnings from the 1 hit to bankroll my blackjack play. I don't know if I'll even play craps while I'm down but I might.

Quote: Wildwillis1

A valid point you have there sir. I've been trying to mess with my planned bets, and basically thinking out loud. The weekend of the 24-26th a buddy and I are heading to foxwoods for some gaming. He's mostly gonna be playing blackjack, which I like and all but I loss interest after awhile(unless I'm winning of course). So basically my goal with craps is to take one hit and run with it and hopefully use my winnings from the 1 hit to bankroll my blackjack play. I don't know if I'll even play craps while I'm down but I might.

I wouldnt put all 3000 on the 1st roll... if the 7 comes right away then you are all done with no chance to get some back. I would do 1000 risk.. at least you will still have some bullets left if the first roll is a 7. But stay true to the principle of 'hit n run'.. just 2 - 3 rolls and go off... walk away.

Im not much of a Black Jack guy. I dont count cards, so I dont see any edge nor favorable probabilities in my play.... so If I know Im probably going to lose in the game, I dont play it. If you are looking pass time with your buddies and enjoy the game, then that is a different story. Craps is the best scenario for making money in my experiences.. and of course poker.

Hey Wildwillis, How did your trip go? Im curious to see what you decided to do and how things worked out for you.

It's started well, made about 400 at foxwoods playing black jack. After that my buddies and I went over to Mohegan sun and I proceeded to give back all I won along with another 1400. I did play craps for a while and had the longest roll of the 3 hours I played there. The roll was 41 rolls long, I ended up putting the dealers on the horn with me for a nickel each and proceeded to make the dealers over 300 bucks. They loved me after that. All told I spend about 1900 on the trip and gambling. Had fun tho. I've decided to try something else out with my local casino. Last April I had put myself on the self exclusion list for a year due to chasing losses and needed a break. I come off the list on may first and I'm going to try this: start with $32. Bet it across for one hit then leave. Keep this up every day, increasing my bets as my winnings allow (i.e after 5 days/hits at the $32 level I'll have won $35 so increase bets to $64 across and so on). After 24 days/hits my balance will be roughly $1763 (assuming that I only hit on the 5,6,8,or 9, and I manage to dodge the 7) with this amount I'll be able to max bet on the 6 & 8 for $300 while having $250 on the 4,5,9,&10. My casino is small as you can figure out by the $300 max bet. After reaching this level, I plan on just pocketing the $350 every day to increase my take home every week by $2450 (which is about a months income for me.) If by some chance at any point in the process I loss to the 7, all I'll be out is $32. If I make it to day 24, and lose on day 25, I'll have made a profit of $131(163-32) this is all assuming that I never roll a 4 or 10.

I guess my next question is is there a point where a casino will ban me for winning too much?

haha.... that is the right attitude, but I highly doubt they will ban you for winning 7 bucks a day. Unless they think you are cheating them with fixing dice , etc... they will gladly take your bets!

[Deleted]

Quote: Wildwillis1

So I've come up with an idea, mind you I'm a big action junkie. I hate standing there and not doing anything. So my thought is this:

Bank roll: $3000

Place the numbers 5,6,8 (100, 120, 120) with a $20 feild.
After a place bet win, drop to $75, $90, $90 for place bets and drop the feild to $15.
After second win on your place bets, from them down to $25, $30, $30 with a $5 feild.
At this point you have $120 in your rack and all your bets are on house money. Alternatively you could pull all bets and be up by $210.

My win goal per session would be $500, playing roughly 8 sessions in 36 hours.

I know that the iron cross is a losing strategy from the get go, and that with this variant you could lose big if you go point-7-out. For all of you math guys out there, what would be the over all house edge if you manage to get the two place bets to win?

A little over 3+ hours to ruin on first simulation using your strategy.