Hot or Cold Craps Table!

Should you listen to the Dealers on a Craps game when they say a table is Hot or Cold?

Every single throw of the dice is independent, so it really doesn't matter what happened before the next throw, mathematically. If you want to have "fun" with this type of information then sure, listen to it and play from the appropriate side. I never got why everyone didn't just play the Don't Pass when the dealers say "it's a super cold table!"

It's the exact same as walking up to a Roulette table and seeing 15 red numbers in a row, and the dealer saying "black is super cold!" Would you bet on black then (Pass)? Would you bet on RED then (DP)? Again, it mathematically doesn't matter what happened before, but the same scenario.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Should you listen to the Dealers on a Craps game when they say a table is Hot or Cold?

Yes. What you do with the info is up to you. Honestly nobody seems to change much, no matter what is said.

I suppose the answer to the question depends on one's belief system.

A person who believes in the power of shaping their betting in accordance to "trends" will value and heed such knowledge, whereas a non-believer will ignore it.

Most of the craps players at this board would probably ignore it, as most of usl seem to realize that past performance will NOT affect future performance.

I mean, really: how in the hell COULD IT?

The human mind is attuned to seek out, analyze and process perceived patterns; it's what we do; alas, we delude ourselves when we do so at a craps table.

Listen?
Sure.

Alter my strategy based upon that info?
Probably not.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Should you listen to the Dealers on a Craps game when they say a table is Hot or Cold?

Sure. Maybe you won't play if table is said to be cold.

This is always an interesting discussion. While it is correct that every single throw of the dice is an independent event (or variable), that is only half of the math involved. It is also important to understand that an element of variance exists in independent variables...and that's the reason we play the games we do.

My usual craps game is a minimum pass-line bet backed up with double odds and place bets on the 6 and 8. As the place bets hit, I increase my PL odds until I reach the max before pressing the place bets. I'm a low-roller, so there's no way my bankroll would survive on a 'cold' table if I played $5 PL backed up with 10X odds and $30 place bets on the 6 and 8. That would wipe out my $300-$400 buy-in in short order. However, there have been several times when I've reached those bet levels as part of a 'hot' roll or on a 'hot' table.

Even though every single throw is independent and the dice have no memory, being able to identify and ride that variance wave when it hits is that makes the game so fun.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Should you listen to the Dealers on a Craps game when they say a table is Hot or Cold?

Why is a craps expert and consistent winner such as yourself asking this question? You should be telling us.

Me thinks you are trolling and you have multiple sock-puppet accounts.

It's amazing you sparked the very fist post and response from a guy that's been a member since 2014
MexYoda72
Joined:Sep 17, 2014 Threads: 0 Posts: 1

Quote: MexYoda72

Even though every single throw is independent and the dice have no memory, being able to identify and ride that variance wave when it hits is that makes the game so fun.

On this we agree.

The "variance wave" becomes clearer when a shooter has legs.

If I am winning on a shooter, I get more aggressive, esp. once I've passed the break even point.

So far as using winnings from a placed six or eight to increase the PL odds bet: it makes sense, mathematically, but those who believe in trends would probably press the six or eight, as the fact that it hit shows it is a "hot" number.

You pays your money and you makes your choices.

Quote: MexYoda72

This is always an interesting discussion.

As the place bets hit, I increase my PL odds ...

Seems like a very sensible strategy. With every roll that pays, you decrease the HA.

Reminds me of the (delightful) book by Malcolm Jay titled, 50 Years At the Craps Tables. He was a fan of pass line and full odds. He sez it worked for him...

Quote:

I did have foays when I needed to cover losses, but those amounts where always less than my wins and I had a lot more wins than losses.

IMHO, any winning craps strategy leverages bets with the lowest HA so Lady Luck doesn't have to do back flips to help you win.

Anyone who can't tell whether a table is hot, cold or lukewarm after watching it for a few minutes really shouldn't be playing the game.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Anyone who can't tell whether a table is hot, cold or lukewarm after watching it for a few minutes really shouldn't be playing the game.

Anyone who thinks what happened in the past few minutes matters at all really shouldn't be playing the game either.

if the dealer knew anything he wouldn't be dealing......sigh.

Hi, MexYoda and welcome to posting! Thanks for speaking up.

Quote: AxelWolf

Why is a craps expert and consistent winner such as yourself asking this question? You should be telling us.

Me thinks you are trolling and you have multiple sock-puppet accounts.

It's amazing you sparked the very fist post and response from a guy that's been a member since 2014
MexYoda72
Joined:Sep 17, 2014 Threads: 0 Posts: 1

I ask that question to see what the majority of people think on this site. I obviously believe that a table can be hot or cold and I do listen to what the dealers tell me about how the table has been.

Regarding my first ever post... it was quite a while ago and I have no idea what you are talking about. You obviously are looking way too into things. I havent even been back on the site for a long while... you can probably tell me the last time I was on and what I posted and everything I said since I signed up. haha I just logged back on last week because I wanted to see how the site was since they sold it.

Regarding your proposition. I am all for it. I will look over what you proposed and make my proposals and discuss on mutual terms as we get closer to my trip. I have respect for you and the folks on this site. Im not looking for bad blood. Regardless of the outcome, I hope we can have a drink, a few laughs, and an enjoyable time.

Are you a professional gambler?

Axel was talking about MaxYoda's first post, not yours, WmW.

This post = Plopfest2k16

Quote: AxelWolf

Why is a craps expert and consistent winner such as yourself asking this question? You should be telling us.

Me thinks you are trolling and you have multiple sock-puppet accounts.

It's amazing you sparked the very fist post and response from a guy that's been a member since 2014
MexYoda72
Joined:Sep 17, 2014 Threads: 0 Posts: 1

AxelWolf hit the nail on the head. Pretty obvious fisherman in his boat with multiple lines in the water cruising around the lake at trolling speed.

we've been there before with bets apparently accepted, but then no-show when it's time

I predict this will be a no-show and will give odds, anybody ready to bet?

While you may know that there really is no such thing as a hot or cold table, if you're a recreational player, the game might be more enjoyable to you if you suspend your disbelief and root for the table to be hot. As long as it's all just entertainment and you can afford whatever possible loss you might incur. When I played BJ as an AP if I was getting killed at a table I would leave that table and sometimes the casino itself if there was another one in walking distance. I knew that I was no more likely to win or lose at a different table or a different casino. But it made me feel better. It only cost me a little bit of time. I would guess that there are other APs who did this.

I think you're asking the wrong question. The issue isn't the table but the shooters. The table is inanimate, as are the dice. And, as Romes pointed out, "Every single throw of the dice is independent". But the math also allows for variance from the norm so even if the average is about 8 throws before you SO, we've all seen hot rollers on a streak. Last week I saw two. One was definitely a random roller and the other seemed to be going the DI route so the question of luck vs skill is an open issue. Either way, I made a good amount by pressing my bets more aggressively than I usually do.

We all have to determine entry and exit strategies, as well as betting strategies for casino table games.

While there is nothing wrong with wanting to play only at a warm to hot table (a conclusion based upon recent performance), there is nothing right about it either.

Some would call such thinking superstitious; I think of it as arbitrary.

Quote: AxelWolf

It's amazing you sparked the very first post and response from a guy that's been a member since 2014
MexYoda72
Joined:Sep 17, 2014 Threads: 0 Posts: 1

Or the death of Carrie Fisher woke him up and made him realize he needs to just get back out in the world. Drinking and f'n in Tijuana daily is no way to go through life!

Quote: WatchMeWin

I ask that question to see what the majority of people think on this site. I obviously believe that a table can be hot or cold and I do listen to what the dealers tell me about how the table has been.

Regarding my first ever post... it was quite a while ago and I have no idea what you are talking about. You obviously are looking way too into things. I havent even been back on the site for a long while... you can probably tell me the last time I was on and what I posted and everything I said since I signed up. haha I just logged back on last week because I wanted to see how the site was since they sold it.

Regarding your proposition. I am all for it. I will look over what you proposed and make my proposals and discuss on mutual terms as we get closer to my trip. I have respect for you and the folks on this site. I'm not looking for bad blood. Regardless of the outcome, I hope we can have a drink, a few laughs, and an enjoyable time.

Are you a professional gambler?

That's debatable.

I'm fairly easy going and I can get along with just about anyone, so there definitely wouldn't be any bad blood on my part, unless you tried to pull some stunt....like trying to sneak in extra chips or something like that.

I certainly wouldn't be upset if you won fair and square and I had to pay you out.

I'm fully aware anything can happen after one or even many sessions of craps play. Winning or losing on something like this is irrelevant to me(obviously I like to win money, because I can't spend value), I would basically just be booking your action. I have nothing to prove as I'm not claiming to be a master crapster who win's consistently like you. You on the other hand, have all the pressure of proving you are a consistent winner. That's what I like to call a negative free-roll on your part. If you win, we know that's just variance. If you lose, that's variance as well, but it proves that you don't have any special system or abilities over some newbie or random roller.

I take it you are coming to Vegas and playing craps anyways? If that's the case, nothing really changes for you. Since this is not a bet or a challenge, you nor I are under any real obligation, but I ask that you not send me on some wild goose chase, or try to change anything up last minute.

TBH your character mimics that of many other system players, trolls, sock-puppets and bullshitters who just like to play games online and never really intend to follow through with their fantasies. So I won't hold my breath, change my plans or do anything too inconvenient. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong. I first thought MaxPen was A B79 sock-puppet(granted he didn't really say or do anything too suspect, it was just bad timing). I Now consider Max a trusted friend and a great guy to work or just hang out with.
If I am wrong about you that's a good thing, and everything will work out.


Once again, I ask that you give me an idea the level of betting you are planning on? If you are taking about a $200 to $500 session BR betting red chips I would like to know now. I'm not saying I wouldn't come just the same, but it's something I would like to consider. If you're betting much higher I want to make sure I'm prepared.
You seem to be avoiding that question, I prefer to address that now.

Quote: AxelWolf

That's debatable.

I'm fairly easy going and I can get along with just about anyone, so there definitely wouldn't be any bad blood on my part, unless you tried to pull some stunt....like trying to sneak in extra chips or something like that.

I certainly wouldn't be upset if you won fair and square and I had to pay you out.

I'm fully aware anything can happen after one or even many sessions of craps play. Winning or losing on something like this is irrelevant to me(obviously I like to win money, because I can't spend value), I would basically just be booking your action. I have nothing to prove as I'm not claiming to be a master crapster who win's consistently like you. You on the other hand, have all the pressure of proving you are a consistent winner. That's what I like to call a negative free-roll on your part. If you win, we know that's just variance. If you lose, that's variance as well, but it proves that you don't have any special system or abilities over some newbie or random roller.

I take it you are coming to Vegas and playing craps anyways? If that's the case, nothing really changes for you. Since this is not a bet or a challenge, you nor I are under any real obligation, but I ask that you not send me on some wild goose chase, or try to change anything up last minute.

TBH your character mimics that of many other system players, trolls, sock-puppets and bullshitters who just like to play games online and never really intend to follow through with their fantasies. So I won't hold my breath, change my plans or do anything too inconvenient. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong. I first thought MaxPen was A B79 sock-puppet(granted he didn't really say or do anything too suspect, it was just bad timing). I Now consider Max a trusted friend and a great guy to work or just hang out with.
If I am wrong about you that's a good thing, and everything will work out.


Once again, I ask that you give me an idea the level of betting you are planning on? If you are taking about a $200 to $500 session BR betting red chips I would like to know now. I'm not saying I wouldn't come just the same, but it's something I would like to consider. If you're betting much higher I want to make sure I'm prepared.
You seem to be avoiding that question, I prefer to address that now.

Thanks for you message. We will get along fine and have fun either way. I just need to figure out how to tell my gf , who may be traveling with me, that I met some guy on a gambling message board and we made a bet on whether I will win or not... haha But she is aware of how I like to jump in and out of tables, so all good.

I will start each 'session' with 500. I figure we will do 3 'sessions' if that works for you. We can do 1 a day for 3 days or split up the times in one day... doesn't really matter to me. A 'session' will be anytime i cash in in the 500 and either lose the 500 or decide to stop after I win at least 33% (165), which is what i preach, or I could go on and get greedy to win more at my risk, which is what I say is the downfall of many players. You can cap this amount if you want. A session will not be longer than 2hrs... its usually very short.. but I may move from table to another within that time frame with the same amount of chips which you will monitor at all times.

We can play anywhere we both agree upon on the strip. One of the larger casinos is fine with me.

Do you follow hoops? If I win, I will take a portion of the winnings and put it in a parlay on bb with teams we pick together and I will split the winnings with you. You do not need to do the same, I just like to have some comradery.

It may be a mistake to cap winnings at one-third, then walk away.

John Patrick discusses "Up and Pull," where a player ratholes MOST of his winnings when he reaches a pre-determined win level, and continues to play, risking only a small amount, and that quite conservatively.

That way if the "winning streak" continues, you benefit; otherwise the loss is nominal.