gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
• Posts: 3092
Thanks for this post from:
March 28th, 2018 at 3:29:41 PM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

keep in mind that consistency does not mean every single day or every visit to the craps table.
Gamblers can also be consistent from winning one, losing one, winning two, losing two.
Can also be losing 25% of your bank roll 4 times consistently vs. winning 200% of your bank roll one time.

Anyone saying, YEAH I WIN EVERYDAY is a fool compared to YEAH I MAY LOSE EVERYDAY BUT WHEN I WIN, I WIN HUGE is much more believable.

That comes back to variance.

The more you play, the less variance you will see. In other words, the more time you spend on a game, the closer your actual results will be to the expected value of your wagers.

So lets go back to the 5% house edge (or 95% return) \$1 slot machine. The EV of 10 pulls would be -\$0.50. However, the probability of losing more \$0.50, or winning anything, is very high for a single session of 10 spins. But after 100, 1000, 10,000+ spins the probability of being up or down from expected value shrinks.

The more you play, the closer your real life results will be to amount wagered minus the HE of that wager.
CrapsGenious
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
• Posts: 408
April 15th, 2018 at 11:56:17 PM permalink
I win all the time because I don't bet stupid like 99% of the others do. But i'm not like ya'll. I keep my stuff secret.
8 more years till retirement.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5490
April 16th, 2018 at 7:53:26 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I win all the time because I don't bet stupid like 99% of the others do. But i'm not like ya'll. I keep my stuff secret.

If you many ANY bet on a fair craps game it's technically a stupid bet, because they're all -EV.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
April 16th, 2018 at 8:02:26 AM permalink
He comes back after a 4 year absence spouting nonsense. Has to be some sort of motive.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22067
Thanks for this post from:
April 16th, 2018 at 8:06:10 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He comes back after a 4 year absence spouting nonsense. Has to be some sort of motive.

IP match with LayMeDown may explain the motive.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 7148
April 16th, 2018 at 8:14:44 AM permalink
Its weird

For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
April 16th, 2018 at 8:21:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

IP match with LayMeDown may explain the motive.

That dawned on me. What is wrong with these people?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
alphastorm
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
• Posts: 125
April 16th, 2018 at 8:24:51 AM permalink
I guess talking about how much you are winning is a coping mechanism to how much you are actually losing.
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 4470
April 16th, 2018 at 8:33:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

IP match with LayMeDown may explain the motive.

Guessed it was him resurfacing with a sleeper account.
Who else do we know who moved on from Baccarat to Craps BS?

He'll be back.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Dalex64
Joined: Feb 10, 2013