gamerfreak
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
  • Threads: 43
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Thanks for this post from:
Laymedown
March 28th, 2018 at 3:29:41 PM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

keep in mind that consistency does not mean every single day or every visit to the craps table.
Gamblers can also be consistent from winning one, losing one, winning two, losing two.
Can also be losing 25% of your bank roll 4 times consistently vs. winning 200% of your bank roll one time.

Anyone saying, YEAH I WIN EVERYDAY is a fool compared to YEAH I MAY LOSE EVERYDAY BUT WHEN I WIN, I WIN HUGE is much more believable.


That comes back to variance.

The more you play, the less variance you will see. In other words, the more time you spend on a game, the closer your actual results will be to the expected value of your wagers.

So lets go back to the 5% house edge (or 95% return) $1 slot machine. The EV of 10 pulls would be -$0.50. However, the probability of losing more $0.50, or winning anything, is very high for a single session of 10 spins. But after 100, 1000, 10,000+ spins the probability of being up or down from expected value shrinks.

The more you play, the closer your real life results will be to amount wagered minus the HE of that wager.
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 408
April 15th, 2018 at 11:56:17 PM permalink
I win all the time because I don't bet stupid like 99% of the others do. But i'm not like ya'll. I keep my stuff secret.
8 more years till retirement.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5315
April 16th, 2018 at 7:53:26 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I win all the time because I don't bet stupid like 99% of the others do. But i'm not like ya'll. I keep my stuff secret.

If you many ANY bet on a fair craps game it's technically a stupid bet, because they're all -EV.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
April 16th, 2018 at 8:02:26 AM permalink
He comes back after a 4 year absence spouting nonsense. Has to be some sort of motive.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1172
  • Posts: 19687
Thanks for this post from:
Romes
April 16th, 2018 at 8:06:10 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He comes back after a 4 year absence spouting nonsense. Has to be some sort of motive.



IP match with LayMeDown may explain the motive.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 206
  • Posts: 4309
April 16th, 2018 at 8:14:44 AM permalink
Its weird

I have heard of gambling addiction but GFA (Gambling Forum Addiction?)
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
April 16th, 2018 at 8:21:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

IP match with LayMeDown may explain the motive.


That dawned on me. What is wrong with these people?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
alphastorm
alphastorm
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 124
April 16th, 2018 at 8:24:51 AM permalink
I guess talking about how much you are winning is a coping mechanism to how much you are actually losing.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 3740
April 16th, 2018 at 8:33:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

IP match with LayMeDown may explain the motive.

Guessed it was him resurfacing with a sleeper account.
Dead giveaway was his posting stupid craps advice in a baccarat thread.
Who else do we know who moved on from Baccarat to Craps BS?

He'll be back.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
Dalex64
Dalex64
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1015
April 16th, 2018 at 12:01:57 PM permalink
I wonder how many of these inactive accounts that come back have been hacked.

I don't know what the forum does about repeated login failures, but given a list of inactive accounts, a password dictionary, and time, you can just start rolling through them trying to break in.

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