betwthelines
Joined: Jan 2, 2015
• Threads: 8
• Posts: 171
August 10th, 2017 at 5:32:32 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Quote: betwthelines

...if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose...

Okay, my craps table is open for business! We offer 1x odds on my craps table, and you can bet \$500-\$1,000 on the pass/don't pass or come/don't come...

...You might think that's a long time, but we're talking about a very large sum of money at stake!...

LOL...no we're not...

good one, though!

tom p

"Everybody's funny...you funny too"
--.john lee hooker, House Rent Blues, 1971
"You can't EXPECT to win. But you CAN play Tough"...tom p, 1974
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
• Threads: 53
• Posts: 3392
Thanks for this post from:
August 10th, 2017 at 5:48:18 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

PS: how about resolving the bet by doing a simulation - one done by someone both trust. If it is claimed that 2% of players are still ahead after 1 million rolls, then the simulation can be for 100 players. But it should not be for "one player" at basically an even bet. Come on.

Ayyyy I can't do math but I can write code, not sure I qualify as trusted but you guys can look at the source.

I wrote a simple simulator that bets 1 unit on passline with 1x odds using a crypto quality RNG. Here was the results for 1,000,000 bet resolutions for 100 players.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Results Among 100 Players Over 1000000 Bets Resolved
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Rolls: 3375294.84
Units: -83891.09
7/11 Win: 22.22392600%
Craps Lose: 11.11201600%
Point Win: 27.06786100%
7 Out: 39.59619700%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most Units: -78862
Least Units: -88532

Here's the code. Not my best work (lol global variables), but I just threw it together quickly. I do think it's accurate, but I'm sure someone can let me know how those numbers look -vs- what's mathematically expected.

https://pastebin.com/fPXYJwTz

Edit: -83k seems high, I prob messed something up I'll check it tomorrow
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Aug 10, 2017
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
• Threads: 53
• Posts: 3392
August 10th, 2017 at 10:43:41 PM permalink
OK I fixed it. There was a type casting error. Here's the updated code: https://pastebin.com/4w0J3Zjx

And updated results.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Results Among 100 Players Over 1000000 Bets Resolved
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Rolls: 3376016.91
Units Wagered: 1666773
End Units: -14355.419
7/11 Win: 22.21494700%
Craps Lose: 11.10767100%
Point Win: 27.07159400%
7 Out: 39.60578800%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most Units: -9675.5
Least Units: -20048.6

There you have it. One hundred players, 1 million passline bets each, zero winners, and an average loss of -14355.419 units on a wager with a house edge of 1.41%, WHO WOULD HAVE THUNK IT
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Aug 11, 2017
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Threads: 153
• Posts: 20172
August 10th, 2017 at 10:53:01 PM permalink
Quote: autocarry

Trying to get enough ahead to say what I'm doing works long term. I'll go on runs where I can't lose but then have bad days that brings back reality. Key is staying away from going on tilt. I've been on tilt 4 times in this run. Going in my pocket and not accepting a loss 3 times. Losing 5000, 6000, 6000, as well as not accepting a \$1300 win after a day of losing \$3000. On that day I had my goal of \$1300 but wasn't happy with that and lost all that back plus \$3000 more. So if I can't remain focused I don't deserve the opportunity to be successful.

How does one go tilt on craps, do they start betting the hardways and sh*t?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SiegfriedRoy
Joined: Sep 23, 2014
• Threads: 19
• Posts: 469
August 10th, 2017 at 10:58:56 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How does one go tilt on craps, do they start betting the hardways and sh*t?

ALL ON FIELD BET
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
• Threads: 53
• Posts: 3392
August 10th, 2017 at 11:31:04 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How does one go tilt on craps, do they start betting the hardways and sh*t?

The trick is to evenly spread your beds between Hard 3, Hard 5, Hard 7, and Hard 11. Hard 9 is for suckers.
OnceDear
Administrator
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Threads: 51
• Posts: 6393
August 11th, 2017 at 12:14:06 AM permalink
Quote: autocarry

wins 112 loses 29=79.4%

The most down during this time \$11460 which was on day 11 . . .

currently I'm at a plus of \$15330

So, 2/3 of your year to date profit came from one day of BIG betting!
Quote:

A reply to an earlier comment is Yes, when I'm down a good chunk of my bankroll (\$1000 or so on a \$3000 bankroll) I will push all in or push in a good bit to try to get back in the game.

A few BIG wagers averaging more than \$1000: Those are going to dominate your results. Bigger wagers will dominate more.
Quote:

Obviously I've lost some of those but have won many more than I've lost.

That's luck or good variance: It happens.

I'm pleasd for you if you are having fun AND sit with a profit. But you are not beating the game. What you have does not and will not 'work' if you continue to do it. I hope you have an alternative source of income or capital, ready for when your lifetime profit reaches back down to zero.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Threads: 314
• Posts: 8826
August 11th, 2017 at 3:14:23 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

There you have it. One hundred players, 1 million passline bets each, zero winners, and an average loss of -14355.419 units on a wager with a house edge of 1.41%, WHO WOULD HAVE THUNK IT

Apparently no one told you it's *free odds* and the ability to get the HE well below 1% that makes it possible to have lifetime winners at Craps. You are also using 1 million resolved bets, not 1 million rolls of the dice.

I have confidence in Wincraps for simulations. Maybe I will take time to do one.

I don't know why some of our members get so upset by the idea that there can be winners. If there are 2 winners and 98 losers then that speaks for itself. Out of the 98, many many will be devastated in fact.

When you see a lottery winner on TV does this crowd think it is "fake news" ? Well, Romes would prove it is fake news by betting that if I buy a lottery ticket, I have to pay him X if I don't win big and he pays me that same amount if I do. That'll show everybody.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
• Threads: 53
• Posts: 3392
August 11th, 2017 at 4:53:40 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Apparently no one told you it's *free odds* and the ability to get the HE well below 1% that makes it possible to have lifetime winners at Craps. You are also using 1 million resolved bets, not 1 million rolls of the dice.

I have confidence in Wincraps for simulations. Maybe I will take time to do one.

I don't know why some of our members get so upset by the idea that there can be winners. If there are 2 winners and 98 losers then that speaks for itself. Out of the 98, many many will be devastated in fact.

When you see a lottery winner on TV does this crowd think it is "fake news" ? Well, Romes would prove it is fake news by betting that if I buy a lottery ticket, I have to pay him X if I don't win big and he pays me that same amount if I do. That'll show everybody.

What do you mean free odds? Is that just referring to the fact that taking odds is 0% edge? My program surely paid fair odds.

1 million resolutions -vs- 1 million rolls is really splitting hairs. I guarantee I'd be getting the same results at 1/3 of the sample size. Tell me exactly how you want the simulation run and I'll do it. I'm confident my program is just as accurate as wincraps, all of the stats it's pumping out are identicle to Wiz's calculations on his craps page.

No one is upset about winners, it's the lack of proof behind extraordinary claims that gets people all bothered.

"I'm a winner over 1mil rolls!"

"That's statistically impossible, here's the math to prove it."

"You're math is wrong! Run a simulation!"

"Here's a simulation that validates the math."

"Your simulation is wrong!"
alphastorm
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
• Threads: 16
• Posts: 127
August 11th, 2017 at 5:04:53 AM permalink
I don't understand why there are so many negative nancys on this board. I'm sure most people know that when you're gambling, you'll lose more times than you'll win. As Autocarry has pointed out, he's just lucky with the big bets. Sooner or later, it's possible his big bets will lose. There's no guarantee he will lose even when the HE is heavily against him. Some people are just born lucky.

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