betwthelines
betwthelines
Joined: Jan 2, 2015
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August 10th, 2017 at 8:18:40 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

That's funny, because I showed my math with Standard Devaitions, which are the square root of the variance. So no, you're wrong, I directly took variance in to account. You should learn how to math a little better perhaps. Guaranteed is definitely the correct verbiage, and if you disagree, we can always make a wager and let our money do the talking.

Quote: betwthelines

impossible? nonsense.

setting aside the inapt aphorism that "anything is possible", it is only your ignorance (as in ignoring) of probability variance that would lead you to say "impossible"

it is not only possible but likely that some very few will be ahead with these bets after a mil.

tom p

lol... Instead of even referring to my own math, I'll refer you to Page 13 where boymimbo posted some math for you to look at as well. After 1 million roles, yes, it's impossible, and I GUARANTEE you will be down. Again, if you disagree, let's make a bet and let our money figure it out =D.


simulations show you wrong.

if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose.

while i do recall seeing your math post, i just now cannot find it and after a relatively extensive search too....what page is it on?...quite sincere here, keen to see it again...you are certainly correct that i am no math whiz...lol...

one irony here is that i, myself have actually rolled out ---one at a time---what ended up 1,000,051 rolls, starting decades ago and initially with casino dice rolled into a felt-lined box with great care taken to insure randomness but later using wingcraps (about 90% of it)....playing Tough Craps i was vicariously $21,181 ahead...ONE TRIAL!! over 800k rolls into the second mil results are not so sanguine!...lol...i have contemporaneous records that show this.

now admittedly Tough Craps carries a slightly lower HA than goatcabin's pass with 2x odds only simulations---i estimate about 3x - 4x odds average---and is much more volatile (a thing, like everything, really, that "comes out in the wash" with a sample of a mil...lol) with usually 3, sometimes even 4 come bets in addition to the pass....TC's uber-aggressive betting gambit also comes out in the wash with a mil sample.

it is true too that we need not even use odds for you to lose your bet....goatcabin's similar 10k trials using only place 6, which carries an even higher HA than the line bets, indicated almost 2% still ahead after a mil...yes, the bets do need to be sufficiently tough: his hard 6 only trial showed zero of 10,000 ahead after a mil.

that with these parameters it is ["impossible" for some tiny fraction to be ahead borders on ludicrous....just as that tiny fraction of coin flippers winning $0.99 while his opponent wins $1,00 upon a win can be ahead after a million flips.

your erroneous contentions might also very well be highly intuitive but as with most things intuitive regarding probability, cf craps, it is in error (see any probability 101 text for a multitude of examples).

tom p
"You can't EXPECT to win. But you CAN play Tough"...tom p, 1974
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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August 10th, 2017 at 8:42:12 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo



To be clear, on a zero odds bet like pass or don't pass (no odds) it is guaranteed you'll be down after 1,000,000 rolls.

But what if I play 100 play craps?

(People who read VCT will get that)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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August 10th, 2017 at 11:04:22 AM permalink
Quote: betwthelines

...if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose...

Okay, my craps table is open for business! We offer 1x odds on my craps table, and you can bet $500-$1,000 on the pass/don't pass or come/don't come (since that's the focus of our bet). You must complete 25,000 points. Since it takes ~8.5 rolls to resolve a point, that's approx 213,000 rolls of the dice. If you roll 6 times per minute (minimum restriction - you can throw faster if you want) that's 360 roles per hour. That would take approximately 590 hours or about 59 days of playing 10 hours per day (so about 2 months).

You might think that's a long time, but we're talking about a very large sum of money at stake! Well worth a few years of ones salary... Your -EV is only -$176,250 (if you flat bet $500)... BUT you COULD get lucky as you propose and you could be UP at the end! So it's CLEARLY worth your time to come win a few hundred thousand off me, right???
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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August 10th, 2017 at 11:12:58 AM permalink
Quote: betwthelines

while i do recall seeing your math post, i just now cannot find it and after a relatively extensive search too....what page is it on?...quite sincere here, keen to see it again...you are certainly correct that i am no math whiz...lol...

Probably one of the following permalinks, or in conjecture with multiple others posting mathematical facts in this thread:

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/27868-does-anyone-here-win-consistently-in-craps/7/#post592881

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/27868-does-anyone-here-win-consistently-in-craps/7/#post593353

..."Extensive Searching" found these in about 1-2 minutes clicking back to earlier pages of this thread.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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August 10th, 2017 at 11:27:32 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Quote: betwthelines

...if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose...

Okay, my craps table is open for business! We offer 1x odds on my craps table, and you can bet $500-$1,000 on the pass/don't pass or come/don't come (since that's the focus of our bet). You must complete 25,000 points. Since it takes ~8.5 rolls to resolve a point, that's approx 213,000 rolls of the dice. If you roll 6 times per minute (minimum restriction - you can throw faster if you want) that's 360 roles per hour. That would take approximately 590 hours or about 59 days of playing 10 hours per day (so about 2 months).

You might think that's a long time, but we're talking about a very large sum of money at stake! Well worth a few years of ones salary... Your -EV is only -$176,250 (if you flat bet $500)... BUT you COULD get lucky as you propose and you could be UP at the end! So it's CLEARLY worth your time to come win a few hundred thousand off me, right???



Romes, you have put yourself in the place of those who refuse to put their money where their mouth is around here, but you are one of a kind in this regard: you are the one who is saying "you won't bet me"

You are taking on the claim that "some" will be lifetime winners at Craps - especially if free odds are involved - then proposing to disprove it by saying "I bet this one individual fails"

Bravely saying "I'll be the house" and "you the player" in order to settle the matter too. What a guy!

PS: how about resolving the bet by doing a simulation - one done by someone both trust. If it is claimed that 2% of players are still ahead after 1 million rolls, then the simulation can be for 100 players. But it should not be for "one player" at basically an even bet. Come on.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Aug 10, 2017
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Timesharemooch
Timesharemooch
Joined: Aug 7, 2017
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August 10th, 2017 at 12:42:48 PM permalink
You might have a winning session, or even a 100 of them, but the math will eventually catch up to you and make the kill.
The Martingdale system always works perfectly until that one time that it doesn't.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 10th, 2017 at 12:56:44 PM permalink
Quote: Timesharemooch

You might have a winning session, or even a 100 of them, but the math will eventually catch up to you

a single individual's chances are not good, true

Quote:

and make the kill.

the claim I believe is that out of a large number of people, some will be lifetime winners, no matter how arduously you define 'lifetime' [as long as you don't go into ridiculous possibilities], along with other parameters which did not, I don't believe, have the free odds as low as 1x! . I have maintained that the reason you and I do not seem to know of the existence of such people is for other reasons.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
autocarry
autocarry
Joined: May 31, 2017
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August 10th, 2017 at 1:28:33 PM permalink
Just an update on my craps playing since my last post and since January 25, 2017

wins 112 loses 29=79.4%

The most down during this time $11460 which was on day 11
The most up was day 100 +18945

After that high dropped to a low of plus $4671

currently I'm at a plus of $15330

So with the high point of +18945 coming on June 17, 2017 I've been down everyday since that time which is 41 days of play.

Again the plus $15330 is after I take out fuel and tolls. I'm happy I'm up but disappointed in the fact I haven't progressed past my high which took place almost 2 months ago.

Most of my play happens at Yonkers and I'm doing very well at Yonkers which has "bubble machines" with 3,4,5 time odds. I've played about 20 times at "real casinos" mostly in AC but also at Sands Bethlehem, Hollywood Casino in Harrisburg, area PA, and one time up in Buffalo. I'm actually down about $3000 in "real dice" games.

A reply to an earlier comment is Yes, when I'm down a good chunk of my bankroll ($1000 or so on a $3000 bankroll) I will push all in or push in a good bit to try to get back in the game. Obviously I've lost some of those but have won many more than I've lost. My usual downfall in a large bet will be getting crushed on a 7 or 11 on that opening roll. When those happen and sometimes in a row I tend to walk out a loser.
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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August 10th, 2017 at 4:11:06 PM permalink
Quote: autocarry

wins 112 loses 29=79.4%



AC,

Thanx for sharing the update. You clearly understand that you are David struggling against Goliath. In spite of the odds being against you, you are staying well ahead. Most impressive. Best wishes for continued success.
autocarry
autocarry
Joined: May 31, 2017
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August 10th, 2017 at 5:06:29 PM permalink
Trying to get enough ahead to say what I'm doing works long term. I'll go on runs where I can't lose but then have bad days that brings back reality. Key is staying away from going on tilt. I've been on tilt 4 times in this run. Going in my pocket and not accepting a loss 3 times. Losing 5000, 6000, 6000, as well as not accepting a $1300 win after a day of losing $3000. On that day I had my goal of $1300 but wasn't happy with that and lost all that back plus $3000 more. So if I can't remain focused I don't deserve the opportunity to be successful.

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