Quote:FleaStiffWhat is rational and understandable is that which is the correct and proper terminology. The bar twelve is parenthetical and the bet is Don't Pass.

The worst is those who say 'Don't Pass Bar" which is what I actually read in some hastily written craps manual and actually heard uttered at Terribles.

Its not eliteism its just a matter of civilization or rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses.

Flea,

I myself will never claim perfection in the posts I write, but I try to use correct grammar and proper terminology. You are correct that most craps players -- by convention -- use the term, "Don't Pass" for that bet. So some players (and apparently some gaming authors, as you note) refer to the bet as, "Don't Pass Bar" or "Don't Pass Bar 12." I would not be surprised if someone chooses to use the less-favored term because it consistently reminds them of the difference between Pass and Don't Pass bets (or for some other, personal reason). Certainly not the worst imho.

However, I think it is a LOOONG stretch to suggest such players are less civilized or stupid, and to consign them to the "great unwashed teeming masses." All concerning how one refers to a Don't Pass bet?

Then, after giving us a lecture such as yours, your next post tells us:

Quote:... after a million bets severa players might well be in the plus column ...

Really, sir. Correct and proper indeed! You certainly have a right to your opinion, but I, for one, question your credentials to criticize in the manner you have.

In short, there is God, then there is me, then there is the great unwashed teeming masses, except on such occasions as I doubt the existence of God and then it is simply me versus the great unwashed teeming masses. The later condition tends to also occur prior to my morning coffee and on mornings that I have to arise at an utterly ungodly hour to get the garbage out to the curb.

As to the missing "l" in several, you will have to contact the Internet Gremlins who plague my keyboard and mouse and who will no doubt one of these days drive me to sobriety. Or, even worse, to humility.

Quote:betwthelinesInaccurate. "guaranteed" is simply the wrong word.

Correct alternatives include "expected" or "likely", or more accurately, "extremely, extremely likely"

your math is dealing only in expectation and ignoring the equally valid probability mathematics concept of variance.

simulations have shown that, given low enough -ev bets (essential) that even after a million rolls by 10,000 shooters, almost 5% were ahead...some as little as a dollar ahead maybe, but ahead...this was pass line with double odds only...betting only the 6 (or 8) over 2% were ahead...betting the hard 6, zero percent, none, nada were ahead.

the math guarantees some minuscule number of long run winners given sufficiently tough bets.

tom p

No, not realistically, not on this world anyway. I would bet you $100 and give you a trillion to one odds for a straight don't pass/don't come with no odds.

With a probability of -.01363636 and a standard deviation of .9859 you simply need Excel to help you figure this out for a don't pass / don't come with no odds.

At 10,000 rolls you are expected to be down 136.364 units with a standard deviation of 98.59 units. To be ahead you have to be 1.383 standard deviations above that which carries a probability of 8.331%. This represents about 167 hours of play which might approximate a weekly gambler's activity over a four hour session.

At around 28,289 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 1%.

At around 49,917 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 0.1%

At around 72,295 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 0.01% (1 in 10,000)

At around 95,078 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 0.001% (1 in 100,000)

At 118,108 rolls you're at 1 in a million with an expected loss of 1,610 units and a deviation of 338.82 units or 4.753 standard deviations

At 188,041 rolls you're a 1 in a billion.

At a measly 208,589 rolls you're at 1 in 7.5 billion (this planet's population)

At 250,000 rolls you are expected to be down 3,409.09 units with a standard deviation of 492.95. To be ahead you would have to be 6.9156 standard deviations above that which carries odds of 429,568,831,000 give or take a billion to one.

At 324,065 rolls my excel calculator gives out on me at 7.873741 deviations and odds of 1 quintillion to 1.

At 1,000,000 rolls you are expected to be down 13,636.4 units with a standard deviation of 985.9. That means to be even you would have to be 13.83 standard deviations better than that which I would say is damned impossible.

-----------------------------

Now, take the same better doing 3-4-5 odds which has a standard deviation of 4.915632 and an Expected value of -.14141.

At 10,000 trials (pass + come), the expected loss is 141.41 units (assuming the bettor takes max odds on all bets) but has a standard deviation of 491.52, meaning that the player has a 38.68% chance of being ahead after 10,000 trials.

At 1,000,000 trials (pass + come) under this scenario the expected loss is 14,141.41 units with a standard deviation of 4,915.62 and a probability of being ahead at 0.201%.

Nifty!

Quote:betwthelinesInaccurate. "guaranteed" is simply the wrong word.

Correct alternatives include "expected" or "likely", or more accurately, "extremely, extremely likely"

your math is dealing only in expectation and ignoring the equally valid probability mathematics concept of variance.

simulations have shown that, given low enough -ev bets (essential) that even after a million rolls by 10,000 shooters, almost 5% were ahead...some as little as a dollar ahead maybe, but ahead...this was pass line with double odds only...betting only the 6 (or 8) over 2% were ahead...betting the hard 6, zero percent, none, nada were ahead.

the math guarantees some minuscule number of long run winners given sufficiently tough bets.

tom p

For the hardways you are looking at a variance of 2.8748 and a EV of .09090. plugging that in I hit the 1:1,000,000 threshold at 22,595 trials.

At pass with double at 1,000,000 rolls (not trials) you are looking at variance of 2.85788 and an EV of -.0141414. The odds of you being even/ahead after 1,000,000 rolls are 282.6:1.

Quote:GWAEI sometimes always win too.

60% of the time....it works every time

Damn I wish we could embed YouTube videos here.

Quote:FleaStiffWhat is rational and understandable is that which is the correct and proper terminology. The bar twelve is parenthetical and the bet is Don't Pass.

The worst is those who say 'Don't Pass Bar" which is what I actually read in some hastily written craps manual and actually heard uttered at Terribles.

Its not eliteism its just a matter of civilization or rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses.

of course it is elitism.

at least i assume--i think correctly--that you are not including yourself amongst the "rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses."

why of course not: rather you are among the others: the fortunate elite.

don't pass bar 12 (or 2) is not only descriptive but completely prevalent visually throughout the entire world of bank craps ...hardly stupid...unarguably accurate....

...but since we are not dealing with discernible fact but merely with simple opinion, we have 2 choices: we can either agree to disagree as to what is "proper terminology" or resort to name calling and casting aspersions upon the content of each other's characters.

i prefer the former.

tom p

Quote:FleaStiffNo after a million bets severa players might well be in the plus column, though not necessarily if you include the price of their time.

that simply goes without saying...hell, tips alone can eat up any actual winnings.

too as mentioned, some of those "ahead" might be a little as a dollar ahead...it's just that ahead is ahead.

no, don't be silly, no one is claiming that anyone is making a living at bank craps or even a "profit" at it...on the bets themselves however, given tough enough play, a tiny, tiny fraction will be ahead---and in the real world very much less than the near 5% of our simulations since virtually no one bets as tough as only pass and 2x odds exclusively over a million rolls...lol...in the real world those occasional hard 8s and fire bets etc will eat into that actual number of fortunates...closer to 1% is my guess.

my whole point was that usage of words like "impossible" is in error....their use as "hyperbole" might be forgiven in certain contexts however...lol...

tom p

Lol. Ofcourse. The owner of the table makes money and the members of the Tip Pool make money. The players do not consistently make money. Its their entertainment and its a source of "free" drinks and an occasional winning session which keeps them coming back for more.Quote:Lucca3927I was at a crap table nearly every day for over a year and never had a single losing session. I was a base dealer/stickman and always left the table with more money than I came in with.

Years ago there was a guy tweeting about all his winning sessions at various table games but it seems someone tracked him down to a low stakes poker table at Stations where he no doubt bet the money he was making selling his table games system to fellow tweeties.