Dice Control is a Myth ?
I have taken an interest in Dice Control but have serious doubts of its legitimacy and wanted to ask if anyone has run or heard of this experiment.
Step 1. Take a fixed device place it 6 inches off a flat surface and have some mechanical release that drops the dice the exact same way 10,000 times.
Step 2. Tally the results of each outcome and decide if there is in fact a non random event that can be calculated and exactly what that data is.
My intuition tells me that the results will in fact still be random even under such a small variable of 6 inches and a no obstacle flat surface.
Anyone care to provide proof otherwise or comment (With facts and data) please do.
Thank you,
ps I am hoping I am wrong as I would like to believe dice control is real.
This type of experiment has been attempted, and discussed at length on this board.
I can't recall when the discussions happened: do a site search, you'll come across the threads.
Perhaps another member could provide a link?
Alas, thus far, no objective proof of DI's efficacy has been adduced.
And yet to want to wast your time and talent on DI?Quote: TRADERSTEVEHi Guys I am brand new to the forums today and joined for the sole purpose of asking this question but before I do I want to explain I am a profession hedge fund manager as well as a semi pro poker player and counted cards for 3 years as a living in Vegas so I am not a newbie gambler and very experienced in risk management and probabilities.
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It's amazing how gambling can turn some of the smartest people dumb. (Not referring to you)
I've some people with some damned good looking tosses with the dice staying together in the air, spinning in unison, hitting the table at the same time, and then--blam!--they hit the back wall and they are just as random as the folks who just wing the dice down the table.
Quote: RonCAn experiment that does not toss the dice the same way they have to be tossed in a casino is worthless...all the way to the end, hitting the back wall, etc. The outcome of a test dropping dice a few inches does not prove anything relative to a proper dice throw.
I'd say true to an extent....although I think the purpose of the "simple test" is to see if DI can be disproven, rather than proven.
There's a bunch of problems:
*note my emphasis. Assuming that hitting the back wall will always be enforced, the throw needs to be gentle and land beneath the pyramid rubber [some tables have them high enough to do this]. If it's noticed that the dice are just rolling to this spot and stopping, then in my experience the next thing coming is insistence you throw harder or even that you hit the pyramids.
*most problems revolve around the difficulty of developing the talent. Those who say it can't be done at all [under realistic conditions] really haven't had their case disproved.
*here's one that you don't hear much: the 1.4% house advantage is plenty to overcome, so naturally it's noticed that the free odds lower the combined HA, to less than 0.4% most places. Unfortunately, the variance is increased dramatically. So here the situation is a supposed slight player edge, and the mantra is "avoid variance when the edge is on your side". Our guy with the supposed edge needs to find out if he can make it work under casino conditions and probably his only hope is to defeat a low HA - forcing him to suffer great variance. Sorting out whether it all has been successful or not, proof in the pudding, in that kind of data would take decades.
Quote: AxelWolfAnd yet to want to wast your time and talent on DI?
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It's amazing how gambling can turn some of the smartest people dumb. (Not referring to you)
LOL I enjoy a challenge
Quote: RSI'd say true to an though I think the purpose of the "simple test" is to see if DI can be disproven, rather than proven.
EXACTLY ^^^
Yes, here's a paper:Quote: TRADERSTEVEI have taken an interest in Dice Control but have serious doubts of its legitimacy and wanted to ask if anyone has run or heard of this experiment.
Step 1. Take a fixed device place it 6 inches off a flat surface and have some mechanical release that drops the dice the exact same way 10,000 times.
Step 2. Tally the results of each outcome and decide if there is in fact a non random event that can be calculated and exactly what that data is.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234029725_The_three-dimensional_dynamics_of_the_die_throw
Quote: ConclusionsPractically, the predictability [of a die throw] can be realized only when the die is thrown by a special device which allows to set very precisely the initial conditions. ... In real experiment, the predictability is possible only for very small "e", i.e., an accuracy which in practice is extremely difficult to implement and that is why the coin toss, die throw, and roulette run can be considered as a random process.
Quote: eclecticHi Steve. I don't think this site has a way to send a Private Message? Would like to discuss this with you further since I also worked in your field. Thank you.
sure skype me ssptrader
Then you picked the right game, as it's an IMPOSSIBLE one. You should have just picked spoon bending and then went on to looking for bigfoot.Quote: TRADERSTEVELOL I enjoy a challenge
Check out Dicesitters threads. He has a very good looking consistant shot, he's very polished. His shots look better than anyone I have seen. He even has some videos. He has his own craps table and he has been consistently practicing for years. He is a die hard DI advocate and he seems highly dedicated.
He had said that he was a lifetime loser playing craps. I assume some of that came before he got into DI.
He said that nowadays he either breaks even or makes a little each year. That's after years and years years of practice on his very own table.
Do you even have your own table? Or are you tossing into some makeshift felted crap(s)box in your garage?
We can't find anyone that makes a living playing craps from DI. We can't find any slow motion videos that show any influence.
Everyone claiming to be the best had some BS. excuse why they don't actually play craps themselves.(that's reallys because they keep losing and they make all their money selling sh*it to people like you)
There have been some very smart and talented people with the dedication, knowledge, time, money and the equipment who failed. I guarantee you if DI was possible they would have either learned to do it themselves or found someone who could.
What makes YOU different then all of them?????
I guarantee you if it was possible someone would have came forward by now and proven it to the world.
Craps players are no different than other gamblers. There's too many people who could make a fortune if they could prove DI. They wouldn't even have to go public, just privately prove it and have a NDA with a reputable gambling authority. If someone like The Wizard said, YES i have now seen proof that DI actually works, AP's and even non AP investors would be beating that person's door down with fists full of cash offering them some incredible deals.
Eventually(usually sooner than later) someone spills the beans and gives proof about any gambling advantage that actually works. It doesn't take 20++ years for that to happen. There might be AP tricks or plays that people keep a secret, but not somthing like DI that has been written about, analyzed and talked about extensively.
Quote: TRADERSTEVEHi Guys I am brand new to the forums today and joined for the sole purpose of asking this question but before I do I want to explain I am a profession hedge fund manager as well as a semi pro poker player and counted cards for 3 years as a living in Vegas so I am not a newbie gambler and very experienced in risk management and probabilities.
I have taken an interest in Dice Control but have serious doubts of its legitimacy and wanted to ask if anyone has run or heard of this experiment.
Step 1. Take a fixed device place it 6 inches off a flat surface and have some mechanical release that drops the dice the exact same way 10,000 times.
Step 2. Tally the results of each outcome and decide if there is in fact a non random event that can be calculated and exactly what that data is.
My intuition tells me that the results will in fact still be random even under such a small variable of 6 inches and a no obstacle flat surface.
Anyone care to provide proof otherwise or comment (With facts and data) please do.
Thank you,
ps I am hoping I am wrong as I would like to believe dice control is real.
Here's an article on a researcher at Stanford University
Quote: Stanford News article on Dr. Persi Diaconis' study of shaved dice...Teaming up with colleague Joseph Keller, now a professor emeritus of mathematics, Diaconis resurrected the shaved dice problem. But this time around, he had the mathematical acumen to realize it was nearly impossible to solve. "You can't really do the physics of a bouncing, rolling solid on a rough surface," he says. "It's just too complicated."
So Diaconis and Keller did what mathematicians typically do when faced with such travails: They made assumptions and approximations and devised theoretical models. The two came up with very different models that, amazingly enough, gave the same answer to three decimal places.
But Diaconis wasn't satisfied. Determined to know whether their models fit real data, the young professor approached a company specializing in gambling products and ordered a set of carefully made shaved dice. He enlisted his graduate students to perform 1,000 rolls of 10 dice -- 10,000 rolls in total -- on a craps table constructed in the Statistics Department library for this purpose. The problem was, human counting error swamped whatever minuscule effects came from the hundredth of an inch shaved off the dice. Furthermore, distinguishing the two models would have required at least a million rolls.
So DI, even using gaffed dice hasn't been proved or disproved conclusively, but the study would be very difficult to conduct.
Quote: AxelWolfThen you picked the right game, as it's an IMPOSSIBLE one. You should have just picked spoon bending and then went on to looking for bigfoot.
What makes YOU different then all of them?????
Thank you for your reply and this is why I asked the question in the first place. It took me 3 years to be a consistent winner at cash game poker and 2 years to count cards with enough skill to live off of it for awhile but poker and Card Counting are boring to me now. My job gives me a large income so its more a hobby but I was suspicious of DI and don't want to waste time if its not beatable.
Cheers thanks again
Quote: eclecticI don't think this site has a way to send a Private Message?
explore that under your name, drop down list , upper right
