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NokTang
NokTang
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July 30th, 2016 at 8:58:11 PM permalink
"Now, to give you an example, when someone has a three-four-five crap game, the house advantage is 37 basis points, 38 basis points. When you go to double odds, the house advantage is 58 basis points or 57 basis points. Now, that doesn't sound like a lot. That's a very narrow margin of a house advantage mathematically. However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."

Not sure what this means. When I've actually played very seldom do I see people taking much more than double odds, even in instances where ten and hundred times odds offered. Is this advantage and increase to the bottom line really that large? O O and God Bless You.
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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July 30th, 2016 at 9:11:42 PM permalink
I could be wrong but a player that would take 5 dollar pass line and 50x odds for 250 behind may raise his pass line bet to 100-200 if he can only take double
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 30th, 2016 at 9:59:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I could be wrong but a player that would take 5 dollar pass line and 50x odds for 250 behind may raise his pass line bet to 100-200 if he can only take double

In my experience, it is rare for a person who is playing $250-ish per bet to alternate between $5/50x and 100/2x. The players that are already making black-chip bets aren't usually in casinos where 50x odds are offered.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
NokTang
NokTang
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July 31st, 2016 at 12:27:16 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I could be wrong but a player that would take 5 dollar pass line and 50x odds for 250 behind may raise his pass line bet to 100-200 if he can only take double



That's correct. He may...but as mentioned, I just didn't see it often. Granted, my experiences are a bit out of date but I think it holds. There was a time when Binions offered 100 X on even $1.usd bets and you still saw the retired folks in there for entertainment grinding it out with only $2.usd behind their $1.usd line bets. Same with the few $5.-$100.usd line bettors. Tables packed with dollar bettors including the acquired Mint floor space. Dealers and boxmen as well all in their senior years and plaid sports coats. Those were the days.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 31st, 2016 at 3:03:42 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

"Now, to give you an example, when someone has a three-four-five crap game, the house advantage is 37 basis points, 38 basis points. When you go to double odds, the house advantage is 58 basis points or 57 basis points. Now, that doesn't sound like a lot. That's a very narrow margin of a house advantage mathematically. However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."



who are you quoting?

Quote:

Not sure what this means. When I've actually played very seldom do I see people taking much more than double odds, even in instances where ten and hundred times odds offered. Is this advantage and increase to the bottom line really that large? O O and God Bless You.




that so many only do double odds has to help a lot. That casinos are reluctant to do more than double odds, something you see clearly when there is no competition. This suggests they feel the effect when they increase them. However, I am ready to believe it's just another case of being affected by superstition more than anything. IMO there isn't a casino in the world that couldn't go to 3x4x5x and weather the change without blinking an eye. And it's easier for the dealers.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
NokTang
NokTang
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July 31st, 2016 at 4:21:50 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

who are you quoting?




that so many only do double odds has to help a lot. That casinos are reluctant to do more than double odds, something you see clearly when there is no competition. This suggests they feel the effect when they increase them. However, I am ready to believe it's just another case of being affected by superstition more than anything. IMO there isn't a casino in the world that couldn't go to 3x4x5x and weather the change without blinking an eye. And it's easier for the dealers.



Steve Wynn....recent investor call....with the implication it has made a difference which prompted my inquiry...Cheers mate.
NokTang
NokTang
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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 31st, 2016 at 6:50:54 AM permalink
OK, a Wynn quote

Steve Wynn perhaps contemplated this thing which has stumped me, and I will allow myself to imagine what was going on in his head:

*My people have been telling me we have to offer BJ games that are countable, and then spend tons of money on a big payroll and big equipment investment to catch the card counters, because BJ players expect these kinds of games and won't come at all if we don't have them.

*hmmmmmmmmmm , does that really make sense?

*and they are also telling me we should offer 6:5 BJ, because BJ players are nearly universally so stupid they don't know the difference

*that's no 'hmm', that totally makes no sense, the 2 things are in total contradiction to each other. We'll do 6:5 only! [I don't know that he made this decision, maybe just wants to]

*3x4x5x Craps .... they say we gotta have that

*wait, BJ players have proved to be dumb enough to play 6:5, so now I gotta think we won't lose Craps players! Back to 2x odds!

*I happen to know the smart people are the investors! Play to the smart people, not the morons!

of course it's classic disrespect for the people really paying the bills. What else is new?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
NokTang
NokTang
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July 31st, 2016 at 6:59:02 AM permalink
"However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."

I still don't know what this means. What is a "granular analysis"? Thank you. (no, google didn't help me)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 31st, 2016 at 8:51:38 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

What is a "granular analysis"? Thank you. (no, google didn't help me)



Oh, who knows what he meant, he's parroting some geeks on this maybe. I guess he's saying it's an anal study of the minutiae of the free odds aspect.

What he isn't saying is that Craps requires players making the middle table bets to be profitable, without that it'll be a huge loser every time for any casino. He should know there aren't enough players making the max odds bets to matter once he raises the table minimums - something he does like some kind of fiend, I have no doubt
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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