Sharing of Craps records

Hi everyone, i am Sean from Singapore and have been playing craps since early last year. Chance upon this forum early this year and saw that the probability of having more than 10 pass line winner (include natural winners) was pretty low (0.066%).

So i decided to use the martingale on the Dont pass starting from the minimum bet of $10 all the way to the table max limit. 10-20-40-80-160-320-640-1280-2560-5120. I bet an average of 50 shooters per day earning about $500 daily. About a month in i earn almost 10k but got really scared cause i encounter a few close calls (8-9 winners in a row). So i went and did more research and found that having 6 points and above winners are also rare.

So i got greedy after that and decide to do martingale on the dont pass odds concurrently with the initial method. The bets on the odds vary depending on which number is the point, for example - initial bet $30(points 6)- $90 (points 4) - $180 (point 8) - $480 (point 5) - $1600 (point 10) - $2480 (point 6). Did this for another month and earn a average of $600-$800 daily.

About 2.5 months in i earn around 25k then came a really really bad throw (by me of course). I had 9 Yos (point 11) on the come out roll and 8 points winner, total of 17 pass line win (lose). I lost 13k that night.

After that i went back and consolidate all my records and calculated the odds of anyone having 1 point winner or 2 point and above. The probability based on my records of 662 throws are almost similar to what was calculated by you guys,

0 point winner - 61%
1 point winner - 22%
etc

So i decide to play 3-4 shooters a day, betting that the shooter wont go over 2 or more points. i bet $600 (0 point) -$1200 (1 point) and earn approximately $800-$1000 daily for another month (earn about 17k in total). But i screw it up one day trying to chase my lost after losing the initial bet.

went back again and fine tune the system, currently i am playing on 2 shooters per day (ideally).

1st game - $600 / $1200
2nd game - $600 / $1200
for the above scenario i will earn an average of $688 per session 75% of the time.

If i lose $600 + $1200 in the initial game i will double the amount of the subsequent 2 games.
1st game - $600 / $1200
2nd game - $1200 / $2400
3rd game - $1200 / $2400

Lets take X as a game with 2 or more points made and W as a winning bet. below are the different scenario or combination that i am at risk of based on 662 shooters (actual games in casino)

W + W = $688 (506 times)
W + X + W + W = -$80 (51 times)
W + X + W + X = -$4368 (9 times)
W + X + X = -$5056 (8 times)
X + W + W = -$424 (66 times)
X + W + X = -$4712 (11 times)
X + X = -$5400 (10 times)

I tried throwing another 150 games at home and the percentage are eerily similar to the above table. Can anyone verify the actual probability of the above combination ?

Anyways i have been using this latest method for about a month now, so far still positive.

24-Jun-16 0
27-Jun-16 0
28-Jun-16 500
29-Jun-16 200
30-Jun-16 300
30-Jun-16 250
01-Jul-16 400
04-Jul-16 900
04-Jul-16 0
05-Jul-16 900
07-Jul-16 0
08-Jul-16 200
11-Jul-16 700
12-Jul-16 800
13-Jul-16 900
14-Jul-16 800
15-Jul-16 -4400
18-Jul-16 200
19-Jul-16 600
20-Jul-16 900
25-Jul-16 400

anyways do let me know if you need any information regarding the gambling scene in Singapore and i will gladly share any information. some basic info below

We have two casinos Resort World Sentosa (RWS) and Marina Bay Sands (MBS)

RWS have only one craps table min $10 max $5000. they are open from 12nn to 3am.

MBS have 4 tables, one in the VIP room, one in non smoking area (open only during weekends) and 2 tables at the smoking area. only one table is open 24 hours. different min bet ranging from $10 to $25. much higher max bets than in RWS.

Quote: kai

Hi everyone, i am Sean from Singapore and have been playing craps since early last year. . . saw that the probability of having more than 10 pass line winner (include natural winners) was pretty low (0.066%).

So i decided to use the martingale. . . So i went and did more research and found that having 6 points and above winners are also rare.

So i got greedy after that and decide to do martingale . . . Did this for another month and earn a average of $600-$800 daily.

About 2.5 months in i earn around 25k then came a really really bad throw

Hi Kai and welcome to the forum.

Martingale is a fun and exciting way to lose money.

You probably realise that your probability to lose your bankroll (and all winnings) is always greater than your probability of doubling it. You can adjust and tweak your strategy until the cows come home, but that fact never changes. Splitting your bankroll between different players or different wagers doesn't make any differenc either. You will be ahead on most days, which will boost your confidence. But you will almost certainly not stay ahead.
Marty Charts

What Marty players, including yourself, overlook is that those very rare events with very low probability become far less rare and are encountered with ever increasing probability, the more often you play. Pretty soon with a martingale progression... ANY Martingale progression, you reach the point where total ruin is the most likely outcome. You don't know when the massive loss is going to strike. Until then, it's fun.

And stop loss limits don't help, nor does quitting your session while you are ahead.

The Martingale is just a complicated way of betting more when you are losing.

I suggest betting more when you are winning - much more fun! And less mind-bending, because it's hard to start believing you have thought of something nobody else has. BTW, that it is a new idea cannot be said of the Martingale, an idea that has been documented to have been around for centuries and possibly millennia. No one has been able to make it work.