Are Pass/Don't Pass Bets Essentially Mirror Images?

Greetings,

If player Adam likes to make pass line & come bets only until a point of 4 or 10 is established and takes $50 odds on that 4 or 10, but takes no odds on any other bet...

And player Zelda likes don't pass & don't come only until a point of 4 or 10 is established and lays $100 odds on that 4 or 10, but lays no odds on any other bet...

Would you say that they are essentially playing the same game? If they played the same, somehow statistically perfect & symmetrical game, would they end up with the same amount of money?

I ask because I favor the Don'ts, but I haven't been able to get a good grasp on how odds volatility affects a Don't player's game due to laying the long end of the odds.

Since the odds are a zero sum affair anyway, is odds volatility the only relative difference in these two approaches? i.e. Player Zelda is putting more overall money down on the table, so the swings will be bigger... Or is volatility strictly in relation to the 5x odds (on $10 table), whether it's on the Do or Don't?

You could say that a tiny swing in player Adam's favor would be more costly to Zelda, than vice versa, right?

Appreciate constructive input! Just trying to better understand the occasional stigma over Don't betting and how it relates to laying more to win less.

Boston

In the long run, for a $10 DP or $10 PL, the loss is just about the same ($.14 versus $.141). In the long run, the loss from laying versus putting odds is the same $0.
Essentially you are playing the same game, but by laying odds, you have increased your volatility. I am not a math guy who can provide you with the exact formula to calculate this. Roughly from the don't you have 2 winning decisions and one losing decision for $330 at risk ($110 x3). From the do, you have one winning decision and 2 losing decision for $180 at risk. Seems to me there is more volatility on the don't side.

Quote: wrongwayboston

Would you say that they are essentially playing the same game?

I say they are NOT playing the same game even playing at the same table. the bets have differences.

Quote: wrongwayboston

If they played the same,
somehow statistically perfect & symmetrical game, would they end up with the same amount of money?

NO- NEVER NEVER the same amount of money.

what gets close is
the percentage or ratio of
net/total action

would be very close to each other
and NEVER the actual $$$$ won or lost
NEVER

no matter what the rest may say

like flipping a coin a billion times and getting about 50% heads but the actual number of Heads
the difference between actual flipped and theo
keeps increasing and does not get close to 0.

this is a popular belief under the heading of the Gambler's Fallacy

Quote: wrongwayboston

You could say that a tiny swing in player Adam's favor would be more costly to Zelda, than vice versa, right?

only over a few bets resolved.

the Lay odds dominate at win rates
the 4/10 wins 2 out of 3
200 out of 300 on average
no other single craps bet does better

so it is the lay odds winning rate over time that opens eyes for the don't player

as a matter of fact
I am a lifetime craps winner making many Lay 4 and Lay 10 bets
cuz they win so often, even just paying half of what I bet

I will keep it that way

remember
actual money lost or won at gambling is meaningless
it is the ratio of
net / total bet that matters

BTW, excellent question
Sally pretty

Quote: wrongwayboston

Greetings,

If player Adam likes to make pass line & come bets only until a point of 4 or 10 is established and takes $50 odds on that 4 or 10, but takes no odds on any other bet...

And player Zelda likes don't pass & don't come only until a point of 4 or 10 is established and lays $100 odds on that 4 or 10, but lays no odds on any other bet...

Would you say that they are essentially playing the same game? If they played the same, somehow statistically perfect & symmetrical game, would they end up with the same amount of money?

I ask because I favor the Don'ts, but I haven't been able to get a good grasp on how odds volatility affects a Don't player's game due to laying the long end of the odds.

Since the odds are a zero sum affair anyway, is odds volatility the only relative difference in these two approaches? i.e. Player Zelda is putting more overall money down on the table, so the swings will be bigger... Or is volatility strictly in relation to the 5x odds (on $10 table), whether it's on the Do or Don't?

You could say that a tiny swing in player Adam's favor would be more costly to Zelda, than vice versa, right?

Appreciate constructive input! Just trying to better understand the occasional stigma over Don't betting and how it relates to laying more to win less.

Boston

The only difference would be on the come out and a 12 rolling. In your scenario, once there is a point then your bets will push each other. On the come out if there is a 12, you will lose $10 and your partner will push. If there were no 12's rolled on the come out then you would have exact opposite results.

Quote: mustangsally

I say they are NOT playing the same game even playing at the same table. the bets have differences.
NO- NEVER NEVER the same amount of money.

what gets close is
the percentage or ratio of
net/total action

would be very close to each other
and NEVER the actual $$$$ won or lost
NEVER

no matter what the rest may say

like flipping a coin a billion times and getting about 50% heads but the actual number of Heads
the difference between actual flipped and theo
keeps increasing and does not get close to 0.

this is a popular belief under the heading of the Gambler's Fallacy
only over a few bets resolved.

the Lay odds dominate at win rates
the 4/10 wins 2 out of 3
200 out of 300 on average
no other single craps bet does better

so it is the lay odds winning rate over time that opens eyes for the don't player

as a matter of fact
I am a lifetime craps winner making many Lay 4 and Lay 10 bets
cuz they win so often, even just paying half of what I bet

I will keep it that way

remember
actual money lost or won at gambling is meaningless
it is the ratio of
net / total bet that matters

BTW, excellent question
Sally pretty

Sally,
What's your lay strategy for the 4/10?

That's what I thought. I know a lot of this is stating the obvious, but it's helpful & a fun mental exercise for me.

If you focus solely on the odds of taking $50 or laying $100 on the 4 or 10, the players would be affected equally by a statistically normal set of outcomes.

2/3 of the time, Adam would lose $50 taking odds, and 1/3 of the time win $100...
2/3 of the time, Zelda would win $50 laying odds, and 1/3 of the time lose $100...

However, I tend to agree with MustangSally that winning streaks on the lay side are more common and thus you could more reliably count on the volatility swinging you up and then quitting while you're ahead. If you win two decisons laying the 4 & 10 (or stay more than 2:1 on the winning side), you're golden.

If I could only make one single bet for the rest of my life, I'd lay the 4 or 10.

Boston

I know streaks happen but sometimes it is just really bad luck.

Last week guy walks up to the table and throws 100 on no 4. Very next roll was hard 4. He throws 200 on no 4, next roll hard 4. He throws 200 again on no 4. It took 3 or 4 rolls but another 4 came up. He storms away from the table down 500 after about 7 rolls. Very next roll 7 out.

Quote: GWAE

I know streaks happen but sometimes it is just really bad luck

sometimes you hear "poker is cruel"

but, fact is, all gambling is cruel at times

Quote: wrongwayboston

Greetings,

If player Adam likes to make pass line & come bets only until a point of 4 or 10 is established and takes $50 odds on that 4 or 10, but takes no odds on any other bet...

And player Zelda likes don't pass & don't come only until a point of 4 or 10 is established and lays $100 odds on that 4 or 10, but lays no odds on any other bet...

Would you say that they are essentially playing the same game? If they played the same, somehow statistically perfect & symmetrical game, would they end up with the same amount of money?

I ask because I favor the Don'ts, but I haven't been able to get a good grasp on how odds volatility affects a Don't player's game due to laying the long end of the odds.

Since the odds are a zero sum affair anyway, is odds volatility the only relative difference in these two approaches? i.e. Player Zelda is putting more overall money down on the table, so the swings will be bigger... Or is volatility strictly in relation to the 5x odds (on $10 table), whether it's on the Do or Don't?

You could say that a tiny swing in player Adam's favor would be more costly to Zelda, than vice versa, right?

Appreciate constructive input! Just trying to better understand the occasional stigma over Don't betting and how it relates to laying more to win less.

Boston

Good question. No they are not mirrors.
First there will always be more "wins" in Adams future, with Adams system. You cannot do any worse than NOT get one stinking point, so Zelda must manage her bets differently, sorry girl. But there will be shooters who get one or more points, helping Adam recoup. While both will lose, Zelda will get "smoked", on the DONTPASS under your scenario when there are an even number of outcomes of PASS and DONTPASS. In my opinion anyway, the passline loses less money here. But, the old -1.36 DP to -1.41 P should be you computational guide to the final outcome after a large amount of bets.

Quote: rushdl

Good question. No they are not mirrors.
First there will always be more "wins" in Adams future, with Adams system. You cannot do any worse than NOT get one stinking point, so Zelda must manage her bets differently, sorry girl. But there will be shooters who get one or more points, helping Adam recoup. While both will lose, Zelda will get "smoked", on the DONTPASS under your scenario when there are an even number of outcomes of PASS and DONTPASS. In my opinion anyway, the passline loses less money here. But, the old -1.36 DP to -1.41 P should be you computational guide to the final outcome after a large amount of bets.

Wait what?


Both sides are essentially mirrors to each other. One wins the amount the other loses. Overall, a net push. This happens most of the time. The only difference is when 12 is rolled on a come out, the DP is a push and the pass is a loss, for a net of -$100 (if both sides have $100 on their line).

Quote: wrongwayboston

...you could more reliably count on the volatility (of laying odds) swinging you up and then quitting while you're ahead...you're golden.

you are golden indeed if you never play craps again...

It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die

Quote: wrongwayboston

...If I could only make one single bet for the rest of my life, I'd lay the 4 or 10.

well, there you go...one big session for sure!...you will want to make sure vig is charged only on the win and make the dollar amount at a breakage that minimizes the HE!...LOL

<<<disclaimer: ok, yes, admittedly IAOBS...ATYD is "too clever by half" in that "the utility of the (gambling) money" does in fact trump the precept in the real world but in a very numerical (an analog of "literal" here) sense the aphorism is quite true!>>>

tom p

Once the point is established, any true-odds bets have no sway on the expected value of the pass or don't pass bet itself, although they do reduce the overall house edge because the outcome is being diluted with zero advantage bets.

I think maybe you are asking how it is that the pass and don't pass bets seem to be "mirror images" of each other, and the answer is that they are really close, but not quite the same house edge. The odds of wining the pass-line bet (in traditional craps) is .492929292929293 while the odds of wining the don't pass line bet is .492987012987013. So the don't is definitely a better bet, although betting don't is definitely boring, and downright ugly when the shooter gets on a hot roll.

Check out this web page for an explanation of how the odds are derived by counting up the numbers of WAYS the dice can be rolled:

http://spikersystems.com/FlashNet_Pointer/www/downloads/SpikerSystems/e-Gamers/AAA_Information/Pass_line_odds_output.txt

I love all the comments, it definitely sheds some light on the fact that some craps players like bigger wins even if less often, and some like lesser wins more often. Obviously the answer to the original question is that they're playing opposite sides of the same game, one winning what the other loses, and the other losing what the first wins. 12 is the difference, but I try to view my approaches only in terms of decisions on the odds, since volatility is the only way to get on a big enough upswing that you meet a win goal, IMO.

Next question:
If Adam & Zelda are thinking of mixing things up a bit, do you think they would be better off playing entirely on one side or the other as in the original post, OR dancing back & forth? In fact, let's say that since the 4 or 10 are 1:2 to the 7, Adam & Zelda decide to play 66% of their hands on the Don't side, and 33% on the Do side. They still wait to put odds down until a 4 or 10 is established, and that's the only number they put odds down for.

Does it make any difference if they dance back & forth across the Do's & Don'ts? They aren't even paying attention to streaks, they're just playing for randomness. They just spend 2/3 of their time on the Don't and 1/3 on the Do.

Same question. Are they playing the same game? The wizard advises playing a combination of Do & Don't, so is that a better way to play than strictly one or the other?

Again, just fun to kick around in the brain. Appreciate your thoughts...

Quote: mustangsally

the Lay odds dominate at win rates
the 4/10 wins 2 out of 3
200 out of 300 on average
no other single craps bet does better

Sally pretty

You are forgetting to advise these little boys on here that they lose the "buy" aspect of said lay.

Nobody gets it for free.

Lay $200.usd to win $100.usd.

Wins "2 out of 3"...

So you win $100.usd times two, = $200.usd. And you lose $200.usd times one plus the "buy". So you lose the "buy". (whichever end the "buy" is on, the payout or the front end when you laid it)