My Adventure in Craps

Others beat me to the punch line so to speak......
I have admitted, at least once, that I am slow.
Maybe I'll catch up with youse guys tomorrow, or next Wednesday......

I own and operate yourefullofs$!#.com

you come to a website with absolute nonsense then, you, in passing mention you sell stuff. Want to join, i got a special if you act fast.

Quote: ontariodealer

I own and operate yourefullofs!#/.com

you come to a website with absolute nonsense then, you, in passing mention you sell stuff. Want to join, i got a special if you act fast.

I thought the website was gos$!#inyourhat.com, but maybe that was another members website.

Ok, folks, sorry I've been busy this week. Very civilized on all sides, I commend the members.

SirDeze,

No, while it's interesting that you tout sports picks for a living, that did not imply that we needed a link or website from you. So I have removed that info from the thread. We do offer website advertising at competitive rates; I suggest you either inquire further or do not continue to defy the forum rules with further self-promotion.
However, other than the single reference, you have been an interesting and well-spoken (though misguided) guest, so I will not be banning you for initially spamming the board. Instead, I invite you to continue participating; perhaps you can learn something, perhaps not, about what's really happening with your craps results.
I might mention you've been given a lot of good and correct info so far. It would be an error for you to dismiss it out of hand as you seem close to doing.

Quote: JoelDeze

I had a few problems short rolling from the left of the stick man because there was too much firggin humidity at the 10x odds table.

I feel your pain bruh. I can only dice control in the southern hemisphere. For some reason I haven't figured out how to adjust for the coriolis effect in the North. Actually, anything beyond the tropic of cancer, or is it Capricorn, I forget.

Quote: RogerKint

I can only dice control in the southern hemisphere. For some reason I haven't figured out how to adjust for the coriolis effect in the North.

You use the same exact throw, you just have to use your opposite hand.

Quote: Joeman

You use the same exact throw, you just have to use your opposite hand.

He's worn that one out as well.

Quote: Joeman

You use the same exact throw, you just have to use your opposite hand.

You may be onto something. This is why there's only three craps tables in Australia and a million in the US. Too many people shoot right handed and are killing the game down there. It's all in my book.

Quote: GWAE

hmmmm this morning I had my $6 6 pressed all the way to $42. I threw the dice and it landed on 6 for a second then it flipped over to a 7. Do you think it could have been the humidity that made that happen?

Humidity happens!

Quote: FatGeezus

Humidity happens!

You gotta love the handle 'FatGeezus'.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Ok, folks, sorry I've been busy this week. Very civilized on all sides, I commend the members.

SirDeze,

No, while it's interesting that you tout sports picks for a living, that did not imply that we needed a link or website from you. So I have removed that info from the thread. We do offer website advertising at competitive rates; I suggest you either inquire further or do not continue to defy the forum rules with further self-promotion.
However, other than the single reference, you have been an interesting and well-spoken (though misguided) guest, so I will not be banning you for initially spamming the board. Instead, I invite you to continue participating; perhaps you can learn something, perhaps not, about what's really happening with your craps results.
I might mention you've been given a lot of good and correct info so far. It would be an error for you to dismiss it out of hand as you seem close to doing.

I have no problems with any of my posts being removed if they violate board rules or the spirit of the community. I completely understand if that is what happened. I will say in my defense that I was not trying to self-promote anything. I really do not need any advertising from this website and I will refrain from violating the spirit of this board with any links going forward.

As for being misguided, I seriously doubt anyone here has played more "real hours" at craps in the last two months than I have at a real casino. I'm not talking about online craps either. I'm talking about standing at a real table in a casino and playing.

This last week alone I made $1k on Monday, $875 on Wednesday, $650 on Thursday and capped off my week with a $2,600 win last night. In the last two months I have now made more than $12,000 playing craps. I've had a few loss days here and there but for the most part, I'm winning a lot.

I'm sure the next statement is going to be that a person can have ups and downs and that I'm currently on a win streak. And, perhaps, my win streak is stretching over several months. But, I have been averaging 28-35 hours per week playing craps now over the last two months and I don't believe that at all.

What I believe is that most people don't fight back. They go down quite a bit and leave the table and accept the loss. I don't . Craps is a momentum game and a strategic game. I will play DP/DC on a cold table until I get to my roll and then throw 96 across and bet max odds simultaneously on the Pass/Odds for myself. It works well. I had a 40 minute roll last night and Phil (the pit boss at Twin River) said Joel, you aren't allowed to roll anymore tonight. He was chuckling of course and I still rolled again. But, I've been having a lot of long rolls now using my own unique style and some of the old folks that frequent the tables a lot more than I do have started to recognize that and they pass the dice to me.

As a math guy I know the probability is stacked against me every time I visit the craps table. Yet, time and time again it is going well. I don't care if anyone understands or believes me when I say this but I do believe that some people are generally cursed around tables. I'm not one of them.

Quote: JoelDeze

I'm sure the next statement is going to be that a person can have ups and downs and that I'm currently on a win streak. And, perhaps, my win streak is stretching over several months. But, I have been averaging 40-45 hours per week playing craps now over the last two months and I don't believe that at all.

As a math guy I know the probability is stacked against me every time I visit the craps table. Yet, time and time again it is going well. I don't care if anyone understands or believes me when I say this but I do believe that some people are generally cursed around tables. I'm not one of them.

Ah, but a winning streak can be one of the worst curses. It encourages you to get cocky and "What I believe is that most people don't fight back" leads to "I'll throw my entire wealth at fighting back"

You will find that your confidence that you can beat the odds will be your undoing.

Then again, he may have found the Holy Grail.

Mortgage everything, and bet it all in one monster session.

You're a winner, right?

Quote: MrV

Then again, he may have found the Holy Grail.

Mortgage everything, and bet it all in one monster session.

You're a winner, right?

I agree. C'mon OP. You're a big winner in the short term. You know you will lose long term. Get in quick. Bet the farm and retire rich.

Quote: OnceDear

I agree. C'mon OP. You're a big winner in the short term. You know you will lose long term. Get in quick. Bet the farm and retire rich.

If we all had a crystal ball I'd probably do just that. Fortunately, I know a great deal about managing money and managing risk appetite. I went home with +$2,600 and the guy across from me was already over $4k. He had a much greater risk appetite. I've worked with so many monte carlo simulation and capital risk models over the years to know you don't do what you just described. It doesn't matter how strong your probability model is showing. No one can predict a dice roll.

I will say I'm happily able and comfortable to risk a lot more at the table on my dice rolls than someone else's.

So then, you feel your brilliance and method of play provides you an advantage over others, yes?

Quote: JoelDeze

I started playing craps on 3/28. . .
I made $1,200 in Atlantic City, $1,800 in Foxwoods, $900 in Mohegan Sun, $500, $700 and $600 in Twin River (all rough averages minus the nickels and dimes) in my casino-cation stretch. In case you are wondering, it was roughly $5,500 - $5,700 over that stretch. . .
Over the course of the last 5 weeks I've won close to $8,000 net now. . .
I've built a ruby application using atmospheric noise generation for random numbers and have built 10,000,000 sequence tests to understand and gauge momentum. . .

My system is . . .
My technique. . .
I've been hitting Twin River a lot now and I'm going back tomorrow. . .

Do you have any questions for me. . ?

What's the appropriate suspension period for me to write the expletives that I'm inclined to?

Rhetorical question. See y'all in a week.

Quote: OnceDear

What's the appropriate suspension period for me to write the expletives that I'm inclined to?

Rhetorical question. See y'all in a week.

Aww, next you will be doubting his 93% win rate on NFL games. Geez

Quote: ernestmiddle

Aww, next you will be doubting his 93% win rate on NFL games. Geez

Started with $700 last night and finished with $3,300. $2,600 as I said. Next you will want me to verify the Twin River casino carpet in the image.

Quote: JoelDeze

Started with $700 last night and finished with $3,300. $2,600 as I said. Next you will want me to verify the Twin River casino carpet in the image.

So you found the "name the carpet" thread in the archives, huh? Don't think we had Twin Rivers there, but then this is a Vegas-based board.

Appreciate you understanding and complying with the forum rules re: advertising.

I do agree with you about something I think is important but often gets dismissed here (because there are few "casual" gamblers); these are GAMES, they're supposed to be entertaining. If you're there to have fun, enjoy it or leave. Glad you're winning right now, as that certainly adds to the entertainment of it. I hope your good luck continues.

Quote: JoelDeze

.

Would you be willing to let someone observe a few sessions of your play?


Most of the time people have a billion excuses as to why they can't/won't allow that to happen.

99% of the time the the real reason is simply because they are just making sh*t up. It happens all the time. Some people are quite convincing to many for a while. I suggest you take a gander at some of the more notorious BS artists we have had here like B79. Who actually convinced a few people he was actually legitimate. He came with pictures, incredible stories and golden monkeys. It was all a big hoax from a mentally disturbed individual.

Certainly you have nothing to hide. Especially since your system deals with positive thinking, gut feeling, karma, cosmic, events, spiritualism etc etc.

Obviously I'm not suggesting you meet up with some random unknown person, there's many individuals on here that have solid reputations.

Quote: AxelWolf

Would you be willing to let someone observe a few sessions of your play?

I have no problem with that at all! The more the merrier. It's one of the best social games around. Anyone is welcome to join me.

Quote: JoelDeze

I have no problem with that at all! The more the merrier. It's one of the best social games around. Anyone is welcome to join me.

Now I am amused.
And it is all about the fun and games, right?


Quote - JoelDeze
I've built a ruby application using atmospheric noise generation for random numbers and have built 10,000,000 sequence tests to understand and gauge momentum.

I assumed that was allegorical. 2F

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Now I am amused.
And it is all about the fun and games, right?


Quote - JoelDeze
I've built a ruby application using atmospheric noise generation for random numbers and have built 10,000,000 sequence tests to understand and gauge momentum.

I assumed that was allegorical. 2F

I do a lot of programming and that is also quite enjoyable. The rails framework changed to a beta 5 release recently. Zurb Foundation (a responsive CSS/jscript framework) updated to 6. Ruby is up to 2.2.4 as well. I wanted to primarily test out some code changes and figured it would be fun to create a fully functioning craps application. My application also mirrors rollers. It records everything and is fully customizable. I wanted true random numbers because you cannot achieve true random numbers with math calculations. So, this gave me the best option. Build it myself and have some fun.

If you can program and run a simulation, then you should set it for 10,000,000 rounds and see where your bankroll is after that.

If it's positive, you've made a programming error.

If it's negative, then you should realize just how lucky you're getting currently.

JoelDeze



On this site if your winning your assumed to be a liar even before you discuss what ever your going
to talk about....

#1 rule here....... the player cant have any affect on the outcome
#2 rule here...... see rule 1


That's really all you need to know.

I have decided two things,, first if you want to discuss things that really make no difference,
this is the place to be, you can't bet your way to winning craps play.. but you sure as hell
can talk about it for 10 years. The second thing is its your game, play it the way you want,
and don't allow them to bother you. Last night I had a 24, 24,21,and 30 plus other shorter
rolls. I looked around and could not see Math or Mrv or Axel so I put the winnings in
my pocket and assumed I could keep it. I even asked the pit boss if the slow motion
camera showed there was any reason why they should not allow me to keep the money
and they said looks good to go.

Life is good when you just play your game. Your going to win sometimes and your
going to lose sometimes.....but playing your game Is more important than playing
theirs.

dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Life is good when you just play your game. Your going to win sometimes and your
going to lose sometimes.....but playing your game Is more important than playing
theirs. dicesetter

Your claim of having had rolls of "24, 24, 21, and 30 plus other shorter rolls" needs to be examined, not so much as to whether it is true, as for what it implies.

Are you claiming you have skill, or an edge, which leads you to being an AP?

Or is is simply luck, aka variance?

How can you tell the difference?

MrV





See I am not claiming anything. I had those rolls last night and I won. That
is enough for me.

Dicesetter

Quote: Romes

If you can program and run a simulation, then you should set it for 10,000,000 rounds and see where your bankroll is after that.

If it's positive, you've made a programming error.

If it's negative, then you should realize just how lucky you're getting currently.

I see. So, now you are attempting to question the validity of my programming skills. Creating a craps application is not very difficult. Customizing the craps application to record sets and output data is not difficult either. Anyone who plays an entire craps session the same way with zero deviation in their routine will lose long term. Why would you even question the validity of that type of testing? From a programming point of view your point is like telling a 5-year old that when he falls on his knees on a hard pavement his knees should hurt.

Everything you do in life is built around probability and outcome. And, a lot of times you are on the positive or negative side of luck. Control is an illusion and that will never change. Anyone who believes they have control over anything soon realizes the error of that judgment. But, I have digressed from my response.

My craps program starts with:

1. A random entrance into any segment of the data. Play begins from there. This means I could start on test scenario 14 and begin play on the 23,148th roll. This part is entirely random.
2. The set point may or may not already be set. This allows a true assessment of walking up to the table and not knowing if the puck will be On or Off.
3. I decide when to wager, what to wager, and how to wager. Just like at a craps table.
4. I can turn off my placebets, pull odds or any combination of the two at any time just like at a table.
5. I will never know the outcome of the roll until it is rolled.

I play as if I'm standing at the table. Sometimes I wait a roller or two and account for the number of rolls and set points that are hit. I want to verify if the table is cold or hot. There's always interesting discovery data that seems to mirror what occurs at tables.

For instance, when a roller goes beyond 14 rolls, they tend to get to roll #20 fairly easily. A roller tends to out by roll 29 or 30 on a long roll. It is very difficult to get past roll #30 from a general play perspective. The danger level in the beginning tends to be anywhere from rolls 2 through 9. Odd Rolls tend to be the worst (3,5,7,9).

Sometimes I'll wager only after roll 9 or 14. Once a roller reaches 20 I cut my wagers entirely or move them to the smallest base level that I'm comfortable risking.

The only thing that matters to me is achieving true "random" rolls and finding a sense of synergy and balance with momentum during a session. My overall goal is measuring momentum.

joelDeze


What matters is you win more than you lose.

I know I have worked very hard for 40 years and saved what I could. I
spent a great deal of money in the first 5 years I was working on dice
control because I actually thought you could control the dice. By that
I mean I was told and convinced all you had to do was throw enough
times at home and you get an edge, you could go to any casino
and bet as much as you could and just carry the money home.

It cost me one and a half walleye boats. I don't do that anymore,
I don't listen to anyone that says I should or you can do that.
I don't think you can.

The truth is the pure math of the game will cost you everything you
take to the table. What will help you win is part skill, part luck and a
whole lot of knowing when to quit.

dicesetter

Quote: MrV

Your claim of having had rolls of "24, 24, 21, and 30 plus other shorter rolls" needs to be examined, not so much as to whether it is true, as for what it implies.

Are you claiming you have skill, or an edge, which leads you to being an AP?

Or is is simply luck, aka variance?

How can you tell the difference?

Even though you were responding to someone else, I'd love to provide my point of view. My position on setting dice is that overall it doesn't work as well as most people would like to believe. There are far too many mechanisms in play that offset dice settings.

However, that being said, I do believe everyone has their own personal set of flawed eye and motion mechanics. You may bring your eyes up while moving your hand and you may even tend to throw low with a fast motion. Maybe your motion tends to cause you to throw the dice towards the right corner of the table. It really doesn't matter because when you throw the dice (whatever way that may be), you are still consistently throwing the dice the same way. Every person I watch at the table throws it his or her own way and they tend to do it the same way all the time.

My way of throwing the dice works great for me. It probably would not work well for you. I don't believe that any style of teaching (Golden Touch Craps, etc.) will truly work for anyone.

Tim Tebow

Changing Tim Tebow's mechanics (shortening his arm motion, quickening his delivery, working on his footwork, etc) isn't going to help him with the whole package you need to be a great QB. It might make him a better QB at the professional level because that's the type of improvements that are necessary to succeed. But, even with his flaws, he has a 17-9 TD to INT ratio, In College his TD to INT ratio was 5:1. His mechanics and decisions are inherently built in a way that he is not the type of player to throw a lot of INTs.

When I throw the dice I hit 9s a lot. I'm not even setting the dice specifically when I roll. I gently roll the dice in front of me. I make sure I don't see any numbers that add up to 7 on top of the dice or on the side of the dice facing me. I put the dice together and throw it across the table gently on an axis. Doing this (with numbers being completely random) I have hit more 9s than anyone I've watched at any table. The last time I played (on Friday when I won $2,600) my last roll I put a $200 or $250 wager on just the 9 and hit it. The guy next to me said good call! I just responded I hit the 9 more than 8 times on the last long roll so figured I'd hit it again.

In the end, what does it matter what anyone believes? Are you playing and having fun? Are you winning? If you are losing then maybe you should figure out why you are a loser and change something about yourself. Or, be proud. Not everyone can be a loser so it might as well be you! :)

The posters who have criticized the OP have performed a public service. Anyone who brags about big winnings but cannot provide any mathematically logical reason as to why he has an advantage deserves to have his post shot down.

Quote: lilredrooster

The posters who have criticized the OP have performed a public service. Anyone who brags about big winnings but cannot provide any mathematically logical reason as to why he has an advantage deserves to have his post shot down.

Not so fast my fine feathered friend (rooster). The OP is well spoken(written), has developed a cosmically correct approach to the game and is winning. What the hell else could you ask for? Not to mention he has a sense of humor, and apparently a fairly thick skin.

He invited you to come play craps with him, you should take him up on the offer.

I had grown tired of Dicesetter and ME bantering back and forth and this is as a breath of fresh air.
The fun has yet to come.
Wait for it, wait for it ;-)

Quote: JoelDeze

I see. So, now you are attempting to question the validity of my programming skills...

Yes, and I'm fully qualified to do so. Not only am I a Senior Developer with a good amount of programming experience, but I've also programmed simulations for many table games, and to boot I've personally hand analyzed every single bet on a craps table.

I will make a wager with you. If you have a craps simulation that after 10,000,000 rounds returns a POSITIVE expectation (with you betting each round), then you did not program the application correctly.

The dice are independent trials, a basic math concept. There is no such thing as "momentum" from round to round in craps, nor even from throw to throw. They're each completely independent trails with the exact same "random" probabilities, which given the house edge on each bet, you cannot overcome.

#math #logic #blessed

Quote: JoelDeze

I see. So, now you are attempting to question the validity of my programming skills.

I don't think he was questioning your skill in a general, big-picture way. However, I agree with him that if you run 10,000,000 rolls and are positive at the end, you have done something wrong. The fact you are a better programmer than I am doesn't change my view on that. I am not a programmer, but I understand probability.

I am one of your many doubters re: your system, though I do appreciate you are quite polite and thorough with your posts. Brief questions for you and Dicesitter:

(1) Do you think that you, personally, can play craps with a positive expectation?
(2) If so, then what do you do to create that positive expectation? You surely know that under the assumption of fair dice and independent trials, craps is a negative expectation game.

JoelDeze, for what it's worth, it seems like you are focusing on some concept of "momentum" and "cold versus hot." How can one identify something like that?

Romes, my dear.
Math is a beautiful thing.
A human attempt at explaining the universe(s).
But it is flawed, because it is human....

Did you catch that, I used 'flawed' again ;-) 2F

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Romes, my dear.
Math is a beautiful thing.
A human attempt at explaining the universe(s).
But it is flawed, because it is human....

Did you catch that, I used 'flawed' again ;-) 2F

Mathematics is not flawed because it does not explain all of the mysteries of the universe. It's limited in it's scope but it is not inaccurate. If you try to engineer something while disregarding mathematics you will fail. If you try to engineer something using correct mathematics you may succeed but it is not unlimited as to what you can do. If you make bets that have a negative expectancy in the long run you will lose. If you believe you can find a hot shooter or a rhythmic roller why waste your time with craps? Why not look for a hot lottery number picker?

Quote: Romes

Quote: JoelDeze

I see. So, now you are attempting to question the validity of my programming skills...

Yes, and I'm fully qualified to do so. Not only am I a Senior Developer with a good amount of programming experience, but I've also programmed simulations for many table games, and to boot I've personally hand analyzed every single bet on a craps table.

I will make a wager with you. If you have a craps simulation that after 10,000,000 rounds returns a POSITIVE expectation (with you betting each round), then you did not program the application correctly.

There's a bet brewing, let's run with it. I propose that a panel of qualified 3rd party software engineers adjudicate, where a judge's qualifications include education or professional experience with software engineering and having written gaming analysis software that produces statistics which have been verified and approved by state gaming regulators or 3rd-party test labs like BMM or GLI. There are at least four regular members here who fit those qualifications: Wizard, myself, and two others I won't name without their permission. Any others?

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: Romes

Quote: JoelDeze

I see. So, now you are attempting to question the validity of my programming skills...

Yes, and I'm fully qualified to do so. Not only am I a Senior Developer with a good amount of programming experience, but I've also programmed simulations for many table games, and to boot I've personally hand analyzed every single bet on a craps table.

I will make a wager with you. If you have a craps simulation that after 10,000,000 rounds returns a POSITIVE expectation (with you betting each round), then you did not program the application correctly.

There's a bet brewing, let's run with it. I propose that a panel of qualified 3rd party software engineers adjudicate, where a judge's qualifications include education or professional experience with software engineering and having written gaming analysis software that produces statistics which have been verified and approved by state gaming regulators or 3rd-party test labs like BMM or GLI. There are at least four regular members here who fit those qualifications: Wizard, myself, and two others I won't name without their permission. Any others?

I'm game if we can finalize the components of the bet and then have any money held by the 3rd party judges.

Pick the bet you want JoelDeze:
1) If your simulation returns a positive expectation after 10,000,000 hands with you making bets every round then I'm betting you programmed your simulation incorrectly.
2) If your simulation returns a negative amount after 10,000,000 hands with you making bets every round then I'm betting you have a losing system.

Sounds like we were going to bet #1 on my account of being well qualified to question your programming.

Quote: Romes

Yes, and I'm fully qualified to do so. Not only am I a Senior Developer with a good amount of programming experience, but I've also programmed simulations for many table games, and to boot I've personally hand analyzed every single bet on a craps table.

I was trying to be humorous my friend with my first statement. Perhaps my wit is unfathomable. :)

Quote: Romes

I will make a wager with you. If you have a craps simulation that after 10,000,000 rounds returns a POSITIVE expectation (with you betting each round), then you did not program the application correctly.

Yes, programmatically it will always return a negative expectation if I run through any large simulation. But, that's not what I was trying to point out in my rebuttal post.

When I use my application I am actively monitoring it as a human player. I turn my placebets on or off based on my personal patterns of response. I practice multiple play styles using a rather unorthodox approach which could aptly be compared to a frenetic algorithm, attempting to measure momentum through a non-logical testing scenario.

Quote: Romes

The dice are independent trials, a basic math concept. There is no such thing as "momentum" from round to round in craps, nor even from throw to throw. They're each completely independent trails with the exact same "random" probabilities, which given the house edge on each bet, you cannot overcome.

#math #logic #blessed

I won't question your intellect. I've read your post on counting cards in Blackjack and found your explanations to be quite thoughtful, direct and well documented. But, some things cannot be explained through simple math and science.

If you were to look closely at the logical side of your thought process when watching a film your brain would stand the projector up, place the movie reel on the device, feed it carefully through, turn it on and watch the movie for "X" time duration. At the end you would comprehend what you learned and the logic side of your brain would say, "Ah... I understand."

The non-logical side of your brain would simply pick up the film reel, smile and say, "Ah.. I understand". It's the part of you that holds your first guess. The logical side of thought tends to get in the way of most creative approaches. Trust me when I say that I am "one of" the most logical persons on these forums. In fact, most of my anger would come from witnessing or experiencing illogical events.

However, what if there are concepts in our own thought process that make us much more attuned to many things around us and we just simply get in the way of those results? In HIgh School (freshman year back in 1983) I took my mid-term algebra exam while completely stoned. I relaxed and instead of building out all of the answers all I did was read every question slowly in my head, reviewed all of the answers and chose the one that first popped into my head. At the end, I was certain that I failed. What a surprise when I found out a made a B- on the exam. Was that luck? I certainly didn't select B as the answer the whole way through.

So, let me explain some simple things about me and you can make your own judgments. Everyone does. It's quite alright. I don't really get upset over things that come logically/naturally.

I am a former 12B10 MOS, Combat Engineer in the U.S. Army (Airborne Q out of Ft. Benning, GA and Air Assault out of Ft. Hood, TX). I used to serve in the 1st Cav Division out of Ft. Hood. Disposition affected? It made me disciplined and provided appreciation for teamwork and sacrifice. I have the utmost respect and appreciation for men and women who serve in the Armed Forces to protect their Country. I wish everyone could enlist for one term. I do believe it would make our Country a better place.

I'm highly anxious and extremely perceptive. My best guess is that adrenaline tends to quicken certain responses. But, I've suffered from Anxiety most of my life. The pros? I believe it helps me with my memory and absorption rates. The cons are too numerous to describe.

I program in 7 languages and self-taught myself through reading. As an example, having no knowledge of Ruby or Ruby on Rails (back in 2008) I read 6 books over a 2-week period and built my production based website in 2-months. This included Linux Server Administration, HTML/CSS, JQuery, Ruby, Ruby on Rails (Framework), MySQL, Subversion Repos, Authorization/Authentication custom interfaces, and even building a custom payment gateway.

I've been in the IT Industry for more than 23 years. I currently work for the largest Commercial Property Insurance company in the world. I used to work for Schwab and U.S. Trust and actively learned how to invest from 11 portfolio managers,.

I love programming, developing and mathematics/statistics.

The first sports algorithm I built was called TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength). In its simplest form, TSRS measures how strong a team is based on the strength of opposition categories. It handles inflated/deflated values for raw statistics. When I first built TSRS, Kenneth Massey (one of the former BCS Computer Rankings) looked over my system and said that I had created a unique system that wouldn't correlate well with other ranking systems, but that this was a good thing. He showcases my system on his ratings page every year during college football season.

You can find my ratings composite on his comparison site: Massey Ratings. It's listed each week under TSRS. And, if this particular link is not something I should do (Moderators), I encourage you to remove it. I am not actively promoting my site. I'm simply showing that I do actively build algorithms for sports. This site link is not my own.

I've built the following algorithms over the years:

TSRS: A true team strength index which actively handles inflation/deflation values for more than 35 statistical categories.
H2H: A Head 2 Head probability algorithm that shows the percentage of probable scoring by each team facing each other.
PTS: An historical scoring average based on finding any game where two teams (with closely similar characteristics) faced each other.
RISK: A risk mark system that takes the 5 or 6 highest return probabilities from regression data and determines how much risk is involved with a team's winning probability. It's a negative aggregate result.
LPR: An aggregate ratings system compiling all of the algorithms I've created to produce a winning probability on games.

Everything is fully tested, observed, adjusted and measured through regression analysis.

So, that's a small snapshot of who I am.

I have to politely disagree with your thoughts on Craps, but not because you are mistaken on any of the mathematical probability analysis where results are concerned. It's that you don't acknowledge the Uncertainty Principles around this or any other game. Add to the fact that you don't even recognize momentum in the game of craps leaves me a bit disappointed. When a player starts with $0, loses $25, loses another $25, loses another $50, what type of momentum in terms of wins or losses is this person experiencing? Is it positive momentum or negative momentum?

If a perceptive person can recognize and measure the empathy level of a person (body language is a great communicator) and a perceptive person could see the types of wagers at a table and even count the number of chips people have, would you say that person could adequately determine if the table was hot or cold? How would you measure the probability and outcome of that event?

All of the people are angry and visibly frustrated. The set point is on the table but there are few bets. Most of the people have very few chips. I come to the table and I'm happy. I have a lot of chips. I'm smiling outwardly and inwardly. I can't wait until I roll the dice. The next 3 people pass the dice to me after the next out. One guy says he looks like a shooter. He knows nothing about me. Before I roll the dice I give the dealer $100 and say put $96 across and toss a $5 to the horn high 12. I look across the table at the guy playing the don't pass line. I say to him you are making a big mistake my friend. I get the dice and calmly throw them and roll a 4. I hear a few groans. I don't care I'm still smiling. Sure, 8% chance that the 4 is going to hit but who cares. This isn't about math. it's about measuring momentum.

I see the guy on the end of the table lay $200 against the 4. I say to him again, I'm going to hit that 4 and you are going to regret it. I'm just letting you know right now. Don't ever go against me at the table. I smile and roll a 9. I'm pressing 1 unit and I tell the dealer I'm on automatic mode. Press everything as I roll, except for the 4 and 10. I buy the 4 for $52. The dealer says you already have odds on that. I say I know but I'm at max odds. Just buy the 4. Two rolls later I roll the 4. There's no massive cheering or anything but I hear someone say about time... That tells me this table must have been pretty cold. I notice the guy on the end of the table shaking his head. He doesn't play the DP anymore and he's not even wagering on the pass line. I roll and hit another set point a few rolls later. Some guy to my right says loudly, we have ourselves a shooter! Now I'm really smiling. I end up hitting a total of 4 set points and a ton of numbers over a long roll. By the end of the roll people are upbeat and happy.

The momentum changed from negative to positive.

I don't expect anyone to believe my story but that type of thing happens a lot when I get to a table. There are times I (by complete chance) I show up at a hot table but that doesn't happen often. So, I have to tell myself to think positive and become the hot roller. It's a foundation few will understand. But, I've invited anyone to come out on a gaming night with me. So, if you want to have some fun and you are in the area, come have some fun.

I'll let you think about that for a little bit. I believe I've provided more than enough information about myself, and my line of thinking.

Why do you believe that computer modeling can accurately represent equity trading and sports betting but not craps?

Quote: MathExtremist

Why do you believe that computer modeling can accurately represent equity trading and sports betting but not craps?

How many people are playing craps at one table?

How many people are actively trading?

Edit: And, just as an fyi, I'm restricted to 10 posts per day until 5/20. So, if at some point, I don't respond fast enough please understand it is due to post restriction counts.

Quote: JoelDeze

Add to the fact that you don't even recognize momentum in the game of craps leaves me a bit disappointed. When a player starts with $0, loses $25, loses another $25, loses another $50, what type of momentum in terms of wins or losses is this person experiencing? Is it positive momentum or negative momentum?

There is no momentum, there is only the occasional illusion of momentum.
The concept of momentum in a sequence of dice throws is totally absurd.

Quote: OnceDear

There is no momentum, there is only the occasional illusion of momentum.
The concept of momentum in a sequence of dice throws is totally absurd.

This gonna be fun ;-)

Quote: dicesitter

JoelDeze



On this site if your winning your assumed to be a liar even before you discuss what ever your going
to talk about....

#1 rule here....... the player cant have any affect on the outcome
#2 rule here...... see rule 1


That's really all you need to know.

I have decided two things,, first if you want to discuss things that really make no difference,
this is the place to be, you can't bet your way to winning craps play.. but you sure as hell
can talk about it for 10 years. The second thing is its your game, play it the way you want,
and don't allow them to bother you. Last night I had a 24, 24,21,and 30 plus other shorter
rolls. I looked around and could not see Math or Mrv or Axel so I put the winnings in
my pocket and assumed I could keep it. I even asked the pit boss if the slow motion
camera showed there was any reason why they should not allow me to keep the money
and they said looks good to go.

Life is good when you just play your game. Your going to win sometimes and your
going to lose sometimes.....but playing your game Is more important than playing
theirs.

dicesetter

We also haven't been around when you left with an empty wallet and nothing but lint in your pocket after you're 3 trip to the ATM. All I know is you're wasting your skill and not betting enough.

I want to start by saying Joel you are a good person for serving your country.

Is it just me or does it sound like Joel's last post was written by two different people? First half talks about how you are an extremely logical person but then you start talking about happy feelings, positive attitude and other nonsense that will allow the dice to work in your favour. Really? Does this sound logical to anyone? Positive attitude doesn't change the dice it just allows you to possibly have more fun. The dice don't have feelings and can't judge yours. They also don't know or care about what the previous rolls were and therefore momentum is basically hocus pocus. I'm glad you are having fun playing craps but that is all you are doing is having fun. You are currently running on the extreme side of good variance but variance will catch up to as it does to everyone else. I hope you understand this although I have my doubts.

Quote: JoelDeze

...But, some things cannot be explained through simple math and science...

Everything can be explained with math and science.

Quote: JoelDeze

...

So you're stating that humans have a non-logic gut response to things that is often correct for unknown reasons and your basis for your higher level ability in this regard is getting high and getting a B on an algebra test in high school?

...and then you go back to your "sports algorithm" and essential pitch on that topic.

Quote: JoelDeze

...It's that you don't acknowledge the Uncertainty Principles around this or any other game. Add to the fact that you don't even recognize momentum in the game of craps leaves me a bit disappointed...

The uncertainty principle deals with quantum mechanics and determining the physical location in space of particles. In quantum mechanics, at that molecular of a level, the particles have been observed to "jump" from a point in space to another point in space, thus creating this principle that you can't determine the actual location as it is both here, and there as it moves simultaneously.

That's all good and well, but this has absolutely no practical application to craps. You're claiming because a particles spacial position can not be determined, so can we not determine if someone has a "hot" hand of the dice. These are apples and oranges and make for a horrifically weak argument in your case for craps. In your simulation it would be easy to add some statistical tracking to "streaks" to see how many over a certain number occurred, how often they occurred, what the mean was in the "streaks," etc. Then you can back engineer the numbers for how often you should see such a streak. Then you would realize over the course of 10,000,000 trails you should EXPECT to see such streaks as the math accounts for them... They are not some form of independent "momentum" due to specific shooters, etc... and in the end the math will come out to be what it should be. To the greater point you have no way whatsoever of identifying them as being in the middle of a streak as to capitalize on it because each throw is an independent trial. Claiming to have the ability to "identify momentum" is simply hog wash that is "supposedly" only backed by short term variance that you're even admitting would fail over the long run. If you're also admitting to this, that it will come out negative, then you're essentially also admitting that you're just trying to play short term variance, which over enough trials will also converge to the natural expected value of losing. Thus by your own affirmation what you're doing does not work.

I do enjoy this conversation and your line of thinking, but it would appear as though a lot of your "logic" is based on faulty assumptions comparing apples to oranges in a way that could be simplified to be explained as the Gambler's Fallacy.

Quote: JoelDeze

I took my mid-term algebra exam while completely stoned

I get it now. This is all something I like to call "reefer writing". How the stuff makes you think you sound brilliant is a known phenomenon to the users of course; I consider the expression self-explanatory. And it is alliterative!

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Romes... Did you catch that, I used 'flawed' again ;-) 2F

I do every time =P.

"What do you see?
...Everything. That is my curse."

Quote: Romes

Everything can be explained with math and science.

To your statement I would reply cautiously with, "Some things will be explained by math and science over time". I have yet to see a math or science explanation regarding the cure for cancer or diabetes.

Quote: Romes

To the greater point you have no way whatsoever of identifying them as being in the middle of a streak as to capitalize on it because each throw is an independent trial. Claiming to have the ability to "identify momentum" is simply hog wash that is "supposedly" only backed by short term variance that you're even admitting would fail over the long run. If you're also admitting to this, that it will come out negative, then you're essentially also admitting that you're just trying to play short term variance, which over enough trials will also converge to the natural expected value of losing. Thus by your own affirmation what you're doing does not work.

Actually, I stated that I am trying to measure momentum. I said I was highly perceptive. I never said I had any such abilities. As for independent trials, show me any trial where more than 1,000,000 rolls were measured from the same human person at any casino. My assumptions are really based on out of the box thinking. I can run tests on a computer from a database as often as I want. It's not going to tell me what I want to know. Likewise, a computer is not going to be able to think exactly like you or me. If they could, we would have perfected AI.

Quote: Romes

I do enjoy this conversation and your line of thinking, but it would appear as though a lot of your "logic" is based on faulty assumptions comparing apples to oranges in a way that could be simplified to be explained as the Gambler's Fallacy.

I know what the Gambler's Fallacy is in complete detail. While some of my comments may indeed lead you to believe that I fit the profile, I am not as simple as you may think. In a way, I am becoming my own test. I'm embracing and defying my own logic, as painful as that may be. And, I'm still winning. I'll accept it for as long as it occurs. Likewise, if I were to win over a year's duration, I do believe that you would still field the same stance you currently have regarding this subject. I don't believe that is a fault at all. Perhaps it is just one pillar that makes you who you are.

I do know that as a human I am flawed. I don't think I'd like to be perfect.