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dachsund1
dachsund1
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March 19th, 2016 at 1:51:01 PM permalink
Hello: Is it more profitable to make multiple dont come bets with double odds until the dont come bet is resolved or just to stick with one dont come bet with double free odds or the maximum allowable amount of odds on the single bet until the single bet is resolved or does it make no difference? thanks to anyone for advice.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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March 19th, 2016 at 2:08:56 PM permalink
My best understanding is it makes no difference; each is an independent, -EV bet, assuming you're betting max odds in each scenario. The rest is up to the variance of the dice. The same 7 resolves all DC bets in your favor, and the chance of the 7 coming up doesn't change regardless of the number of come bets you have. You're just winning or losing faster, but with the same chances of doing either, with more action on the table.

If your bankroll and the table allow you to take enough odds (say 5x or 10x), that should be slightly better for you on one number than the other, as you're only paying vig on the base amount of the DC bet, though it's still -EV overall.

I could be wrong. The Math Guys are welcome to chime in, including correcting my post if necessary.

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dachsund1
dachsund1
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March 19th, 2016 at 2:32:24 PM permalink
Thank you so much. I have had much better results just using one number but I can only bet up to 4X odds at the casino I use and only on the outside numbers. I find using multiple bets the numbers get picked off too often before the bet is resolved and I suppose depending on the variance of the random bit # generator sometimes a 7 takes many more rolls than 6 and in the interim I stand to lose much money.
ahiromu
ahiromu
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March 19th, 2016 at 5:27:09 PM permalink
You're only losing money on your exposure to the DP/DC bet... odds mean nothing in terms of "profitability". Long story short, we're talking a difference in variance. The more bets you spread your money around to should, theoretically, decrease your variance. Therefore, betting on three different numbers at 1/3 total each will have less variance than betting it all on only one number.

With that said, when a strategy involves less money on the odds and more money on bets with a house edge (as yours sounds like), you will lose more money in the "long term". Everybody has to draw a line somewhere, you have to decide if the variance decrease is worth however much more you're giving up in expected value.

Edit: Flow
Last edited by: ahiromu on Mar 19, 2016
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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 19th, 2016 at 6:51:51 PM permalink
the HE is unaffected, but you are putting a lot into action. The more you bet against the HE, the more you are expected to lose

I understand getting sucked in to the idea that the odds are on your side once it gets to being a whole bunch of numbers to be resolved darkside. But it is better [for me anyway] not to have so much in action. I sure have watched them get picked off one by one.
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mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 20th, 2016 at 8:57:34 AM permalink
Quote: dachsund1

I find using multiple bets the numbers get picked off too often before the bet is resolved
and
I suppose
depending on the variance of the
random
bit
#
generator
sometimes a 7 takes many more rolls than 6 and in the interim I stand to lose much money.

the average is 1 in 6, your mileage might vary.
a bit over 50% of the time the wait time for your 7 is just 4 rolls or less
can go way past that and it does

of course a DC will lose on a 7out
such a sucker bet
<<<>>>
Back to the random
bit
#
generator

you play craps on a machine?
where and what machine some can ask?
Sally
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dachsund1
dachsund1
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March 20th, 2016 at 10:26:07 AM permalink
I just play craps online. That's why I refer to the random bit number generator.
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