CHARTING A TABLE
April 27th, 2016 at 7:43:45 AM
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ONEBOK
Thanks for the reply.
I am not sure I understand this "I would disagree here in that someone with this level of control only gets
better over time if he truly knows what he is doing and continues to work very hard at it. I agree that
there will be better and worse days when trying to perform at such a level of precision. "
Here is where I disagree with the dice community that resides in some of the craps schools.
( please understand here, I am not trying to set myself up as some expert with more knowledge
than all those folks, I am nothing in that community" but based on my many years with this stuff I have
seen the same thing over and over. In fact I had a call yesterday discussing the very same thing.
A guy called that has taken a number of classes with one of the larger schools. He had a session
Tuesday morning after taking two class sessions last week. He indicated he was using the hard way
set and his rolled looked damn near perfect. All he got all day was 3/4 4/3 or 2/5 5/2. This is the
same thing my data showed the other day. With the hard way set and the on axis shot, the better
your throw looks the closer you are to a single or double pitch 7.
That is what I meant by having to learn your shot. Now there are adjustments in set you can make
to offset the single, double pitch sevens, but to do that you need to understand what they are.
dicesetter
Thanks for the reply.
I am not sure I understand this "I would disagree here in that someone with this level of control only gets
better over time if he truly knows what he is doing and continues to work very hard at it. I agree that
there will be better and worse days when trying to perform at such a level of precision. "
Here is where I disagree with the dice community that resides in some of the craps schools.
( please understand here, I am not trying to set myself up as some expert with more knowledge
than all those folks, I am nothing in that community" but based on my many years with this stuff I have
seen the same thing over and over. In fact I had a call yesterday discussing the very same thing.
A guy called that has taken a number of classes with one of the larger schools. He had a session
Tuesday morning after taking two class sessions last week. He indicated he was using the hard way
set and his rolled looked damn near perfect. All he got all day was 3/4 4/3 or 2/5 5/2. This is the
same thing my data showed the other day. With the hard way set and the on axis shot, the better
your throw looks the closer you are to a single or double pitch 7.
That is what I meant by having to learn your shot. Now there are adjustments in set you can make
to offset the single, double pitch sevens, but to do that you need to understand what they are.
dicesetter
April 27th, 2016 at 8:06:00 AM
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You have to be very, very patient to read all of this thread. I am trying. I am testing my limits. The results may be displayed on an elaborate spreadsheet later, if I can get Sparkles to help me get it started ;-(
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
April 27th, 2016 at 8:44:01 AM
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That's just not true. In fact, I'd guess that every single throw you've ever made in your entire life has landed differently from each other one. There's a difference between the limited number of numeric outcomes on the dice (11 distinct numeric totals) and the physical behavior of the two cubes. If you can throw the dice so they land exactly the same way twice, I'd love to see it. Nothing you've said indicates you have that ability.Quote: dicesitterHowever, there are only so many ways dice can land, only so many outcomes
they can have, only so many conditions you see at a table, and only so many
factors that affect the dice.
Nobody's suggesting that the edge for a dice-influencer is constant, or constantly positive. Certainly any physical skill has variance -- baseball, bowling, darts, etc. But if your alleged skill never produces a positive edge -- or you don't even have the ability to tell one way or the other -- then there's no point calling it "influence" at all. That's where things are for you, I fear. You don't actually know you have an edge. You're just guessing and hoping.Quote:the only certainty is that the other way , the constant edge theory that
everyone is looking for does not work, because no one can find anyone
that makes it work.
Why is that good enough for you?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 27th, 2016 at 9:24:24 AM
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Quote: MathExtremist If you can throw the dice so they land exactly the same way twice, I'd love to see it. [/qDice throws are like snow flakes, no two are the same.
April 27th, 2016 at 10:04:55 AM
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math
Again and again and again and again you misrepresent what is said.....
And I don't understand it, I have worked with the shot for 8 years..... you have not worked it for 2 minutes
I have discussed it with many good players.... you have discussed it with none.
You and I know that dice don't stay on axis the entire roll.... I think we agree on that.
But the on axis schools, say that any shot that finishes on axis by that they mean if you
start with a set of 3/5 3/5, what you have in the throwing plane are the numbers 3,5,4,2 on
either die. They say if the shot ends with any of those 4 numbers on top on each die, it is
an on axis throw. Now we know better, but you can call a shot anything you want.
What I am saying is if you throw that shot and you do have one of those numbers on top
more often than not, if you get in trouble, it will be a single pitch or double pitch 7.
If that happens and it will and has to every player than ever took a class and used that
set, you have a choice, you can keep throwing a seven or you can make a very small
adjustment in set. that change in set wont be a change you can carry over from day
to day, or the rest of the time you play craps.... but it sure as hell can help on that day.
For the life of me I don't know why you even argue with this..... that day, that time
at the table where your experiencing over and over the same result, you have 3
choices..... keep doing the same thing, go home, or make a set change and see if it
helps..
So what would do..... go home or lose more money?????
dicesetter
Again and again and again and again you misrepresent what is said.....
And I don't understand it, I have worked with the shot for 8 years..... you have not worked it for 2 minutes
I have discussed it with many good players.... you have discussed it with none.
You and I know that dice don't stay on axis the entire roll.... I think we agree on that.
But the on axis schools, say that any shot that finishes on axis by that they mean if you
start with a set of 3/5 3/5, what you have in the throwing plane are the numbers 3,5,4,2 on
either die. They say if the shot ends with any of those 4 numbers on top on each die, it is
an on axis throw. Now we know better, but you can call a shot anything you want.
What I am saying is if you throw that shot and you do have one of those numbers on top
more often than not, if you get in trouble, it will be a single pitch or double pitch 7.
If that happens and it will and has to every player than ever took a class and used that
set, you have a choice, you can keep throwing a seven or you can make a very small
adjustment in set. that change in set wont be a change you can carry over from day
to day, or the rest of the time you play craps.... but it sure as hell can help on that day.
For the life of me I don't know why you even argue with this..... that day, that time
at the table where your experiencing over and over the same result, you have 3
choices..... keep doing the same thing, go home, or make a set change and see if it
helps..
So what would do..... go home or lose more money?????
dicesetter
April 27th, 2016 at 11:06:32 AM
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This isn't about my misrepresentation, it's about your miscomprehension. You don't appear to understand the rigor required to evaluate whether you have an edge. You're unable to quantify your results or measure them against the expected distribution, so you can't evaluate whether you have the edge. It's that simple. You're presuming that you can "experience" whether your "throw is working." That's just guesswork, not worthy of the claim that "I know I have the edge."Quote: dicesitterAgain and again and again and again you misrepresent what is said.....
We do, and anyone who purports to teach a class on "on-axis rolling" that counts a die that tumbles off axis and lands anyway on one of the four axial faces is full of hooey.Quote:You and I know that dice don't stay on axis the entire roll.... I think we agree on that.
No, it can't. You're suffering from unbelievable confirmation bias -- you're presuming that you can influence the dice and that your changes to dice set are the actual cause of whatever happens next. When the change doesn't help, it's bad luck. When the change does help, you're influencing the dice. That's the fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc.Quote:If that happens and it will and has to every player than ever took a class and used that
set, you have a choice, you can keep throwing a seven or you can make a very small
adjustment in set. that change in set wont be a change you can carry over from day
to day, or the rest of the time you play craps.... but it sure as hell can help on that day.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 27th, 2016 at 3:09:32 PM
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Dicesitter:
I really do understand your point and the reason why is that I have been more times than I can remember at a casino where I couldn't do little better than PSO for four or more hands of dice in a row. I would change the set and sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't. Sometimes, I threw a monster roll where I recouped all my losses, both ways.
When I later on viewed my own slo-mo, I realized that as long as I was unable to make the dice stop their hugely but invisible landing and backwall-randomizing, I couldn't really expect my change-of-set to compensate for my lack of ability. I was quite upset at my lack of prowess which I wasn't able to pick up on without slo-mo playback. However it sure explained why I would often go to a live session and feel ready and convinced of my ability and edge but it only existed for 180 rolls on Bonetracker and measured absolutely nothing.
However, I wouldn't dream of faulting anyone for changing a few things when the dice are not cooperating in their casino session. It certainly feels better than doing nothing different and expecting things to improve. I do think that to ignore that huge elephant in the room and just focus on the top planes of the dice after a whole micro-world of chaotic dice-felt, dice-rubber and often dice-dice interactions have taken place is a form of denial and will not allow for attaining verifiable influence, should that even be possible.
I really do understand your point and the reason why is that I have been more times than I can remember at a casino where I couldn't do little better than PSO for four or more hands of dice in a row. I would change the set and sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't. Sometimes, I threw a monster roll where I recouped all my losses, both ways.
When I later on viewed my own slo-mo, I realized that as long as I was unable to make the dice stop their hugely but invisible landing and backwall-randomizing, I couldn't really expect my change-of-set to compensate for my lack of ability. I was quite upset at my lack of prowess which I wasn't able to pick up on without slo-mo playback. However it sure explained why I would often go to a live session and feel ready and convinced of my ability and edge but it only existed for 180 rolls on Bonetracker and measured absolutely nothing.
However, I wouldn't dream of faulting anyone for changing a few things when the dice are not cooperating in their casino session. It certainly feels better than doing nothing different and expecting things to improve. I do think that to ignore that huge elephant in the room and just focus on the top planes of the dice after a whole micro-world of chaotic dice-felt, dice-rubber and often dice-dice interactions have taken place is a form of denial and will not allow for attaining verifiable influence, should that even be possible.
April 27th, 2016 at 3:34:10 PM
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That's absolutely true, and it's harmless as long as you understand that you're not actually controlling anything. Where it becomes troubling is when you believe that changing a few things (like the initial set of the dice) actually changed the outcome. If you believe that, and you increase your bets because of it, you stand to lose more than if you were just keeping things constant. In other words, if you're going to stake a lot of money on the theory that you can control the dice, you'd better be sure that you actually can and what you're observing isn't just a combination of random luck, confirmation bias, and wishful thinking.Quote: onebokHowever, I wouldn't dream of faulting anyone for changing a few things when the dice are not cooperating in their casino session. It certainly feels better than doing nothing different and expecting things to improve.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 27th, 2016 at 6:31:10 PM
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Math
You never answered the question...... if faced with a situation at a casino which was similar to what
you saw on your home table...... would make a change you have made before, would you continue what
your doing and lose more or would you go home.
This continued total BS that you have to save people from others..... is by far the worst thing I have
seen on a web site like this and that is because you have never tried anything, you cant possibly
understand what I am referring to because you have never seen it... The sad thing it is you
that will hurt people. I at least have spent my time and money at the classes they teach
and thousands of practice rolls so when I speak of a result, it is from experience.
Now from my standpoint it is ok, I wont allow it to hurt me because I know better, the team
I play with is doing better because we don't listen to people like you. Sooner or later people
will understand you offer nothing. I hope it is sooner rather than later.
What baffles me is why anyone would listen to you when you made no attempt at all to
see what can happen If you did put in some effort, and freely admit your terrible at this.
Math, there is no point in talking about this stuff, you don't have the experience to discuss
it.
dicesetter
You never answered the question...... if faced with a situation at a casino which was similar to what
you saw on your home table...... would make a change you have made before, would you continue what
your doing and lose more or would you go home.
This continued total BS that you have to save people from others..... is by far the worst thing I have
seen on a web site like this and that is because you have never tried anything, you cant possibly
understand what I am referring to because you have never seen it... The sad thing it is you
that will hurt people. I at least have spent my time and money at the classes they teach
and thousands of practice rolls so when I speak of a result, it is from experience.
Now from my standpoint it is ok, I wont allow it to hurt me because I know better, the team
I play with is doing better because we don't listen to people like you. Sooner or later people
will understand you offer nothing. I hope it is sooner rather than later.
What baffles me is why anyone would listen to you when you made no attempt at all to
see what can happen If you did put in some effort, and freely admit your terrible at this.
Math, there is no point in talking about this stuff, you don't have the experience to discuss
it.
dicesetter
Last edited by: dicesitter on Apr 27, 2016
April 27th, 2016 at 7:57:23 PM
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Are you actually claiming to be able to know in advance that you will lose more by staying the course and lose less by adjusting your throw? Puh-leeze. If you actually had that kind of clairvoyance then it's a simple matter to change where you're betting and make thousands of dollars by covering the numbers that you foresaw would make you lose. What's that? You're not making thousands of dollars from your clairvoyance? I'm truly shocked.Quote: dicesitterYou never answered the question...... if faced with a situation at a casino which was similar to what
you saw on your home table...... would make a change you have made before, would you continue what
your doing and lose more or would you go home.
The truth is this: you're just as random a shooter as I am and none of the changes you might make will make a dent in the house edge or prevent you from losing more. You don't want to accept that truth but that's not on me, that's your confirmation bias rearing it's ugly head. It's so, so easy to attribute causality to independent, random events. Holding a lucky rabbit's foot would be just as effective.
I understand that you desperately want to believe that your time and money was well spent, but you simply can't know that if you never properly examine your results. Perhaps by now you realize that trying to quantify your alleged skill would reveal that you don't have any, and that's why you're constantly dodging the topic.Quote:I at least have spent my time and money at the classes they teach and thousands of practice rolls so when I speak of a result, it is from experience.
Gambling scams like dice-setting classes prey on the greedy and ignorant. When you perpetuate those scams, either out of ignorance or anger, you become part of the problem.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 28th, 2016 at 4:54:12 AM
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math
Play the way you want, I no longer have any patience with you...
In the end, you keep telling me what happens, cant happen..... so either I am lying
or your 100% wrong, it cant be in between. If I was lying I would have given up
on you long ago.........
dicesetter
Play the way you want, I no longer have any patience with you...
In the end, you keep telling me what happens, cant happen..... so either I am lying
or your 100% wrong, it cant be in between. If I was lying I would have given up
on you long ago.........
dicesetter
April 28th, 2016 at 5:33:38 AM
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DeMango, Iv'e been reading the many posts on this forum' by 'superrick' and he suggests his experience (of playing almost every day?) is otherwise. I know I'm at a big disadvantage because I don't live in Vegas and am not privy to a lot of inside information nor get to rub elbows and share in the experiences of others. I even found the answer to a lot of fundamental questions from reading his posts to wit: the PL/DP is not the best bet on the table, (Grafstein Strategy not the best?) and
he sure as heck doesn't believe in DI. He probably got sucked in like everybody else maybe which is why he thinks it's all 'fiction' to use his description. Me too,
trying to 'practice' in my bedroom rig. (:-) And hey, my throw wasn't bad at all! but my 2-layer felt plywood is not a consistent variable. (:-) Please, what say you?
Maybe Mr. Rick no longer believes in those shooters propensity to throw signature numbers? Thank you.
he sure as heck doesn't believe in DI. He probably got sucked in like everybody else maybe which is why he thinks it's all 'fiction' to use his description. Me too,
trying to 'practice' in my bedroom rig. (:-) And hey, my throw wasn't bad at all! but my 2-layer felt plywood is not a consistent variable. (:-) Please, what say you?
Maybe Mr. Rick no longer believes in those shooters propensity to throw signature numbers? Thank you.
April 28th, 2016 at 5:42:05 AM
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DeMango, thank you for your reply on Zumma. How do you reconcile that the "Green" strategy post by VegasDiceControler tested well in both 72-hours and Zumma?
Further, I'm sure you guys know more about back testing than do I but the concept is similar to back testing trading systems for speculative markets. The procedure is to set up a set of rules and backtest the results over a period of what is considered a valid statistical sample. Then apply these same rules to 'out of sample' data to see if the system holds up in 'real time' by producing positive results.
Do you live in Vegas? so I'm wondering what is the extent of your perspective on this concept? If I had an Indian name it would be: 'asks too many damned questions'.
Thank you for your reply.
Further, I'm sure you guys know more about back testing than do I but the concept is similar to back testing trading systems for speculative markets. The procedure is to set up a set of rules and backtest the results over a period of what is considered a valid statistical sample. Then apply these same rules to 'out of sample' data to see if the system holds up in 'real time' by producing positive results.
Do you live in Vegas? so I'm wondering what is the extent of your perspective on this concept? If I had an Indian name it would be: 'asks too many damned questions'.
Thank you for your reply.
April 28th, 2016 at 5:48:49 AM
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Name shortened to yuaskalot, more of a tribal ring ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
April 28th, 2016 at 6:03:43 AM
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Quote: dicesitterPlay the way you want, I no longer have any patience with you...
TBH my patience with this thread is wearing thin too. You just won't listen will you?
Your arguments and your spelling just get worse and worse.
Keep misinterpreting the results of your own practice throws.
Keep misinterpreting the results of your own real world wagering results.
Keep misinterpreting what ME and others so patiently explain to you.
Keep ignoring the possibility that even if you can influence the dice, you are failing dismally to capitalise on it.
Keep mangling words into illogical and nonsense counter arguments.
Let's pick this simple one to pieces shall we....
Quote: dicesitterIn the end, you keep telling me what happens, cant happen
No he doesn't. He just damned well hasn't and doesn't !!! ME tells you clearly and often that what happens can happen. Random throws can have random outcomes. Clutching at rabbits' feet or practicing the conga in your basement or practicing your sets at your home rig can precede those random events.
Quote: dicesitterso either I am lying or your 100% wrong, it cant be in between.
How utterly absurd. What happened to the realm of possibility where you are not lying about practicing and not lying about having profitable wagers, but where you are totally wrong about cause and effect.
In fact you can be telling the truth and YOU can be 100% wrong in your conclusions and ME can be 100% right in his assertions. There is no contradiction there. To say it cannot be in between is not at all logical. 'You are not lying but you are mistaken in your conclusions and ME is 100% correct' is a perfectly valid third possible assertion. It's not in between, it's an addition option that only you dismiss.
So what? I could say "If you were deluded you would continue long into the future."Quote: dicesitterIf I was lying I would have given up on you long ago.........
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
April 28th, 2016 at 6:16:38 AM
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The spelling part was a bit of a cheap shot, I read your writing ;-)
But Feathers no good at kings English, so mistaken might could be...
But Feathers no good at kings English, so mistaken might could be...
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
April 28th, 2016 at 6:26:32 AM
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Quote: TwoFeathersATLThe spelling part was a bit of a cheap shot, I read your writing ;-)
But Feathers no good at kings English, so mistaken might could be...
Tee hee. Cheap shot indeed: We all make mistakes. But 'your' and 'cant' in the same sentence was too much to bare bear.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
April 28th, 2016 at 6:46:08 AM
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You do indeed have watch what you 'bare' here (hear), and indeed have to 'bear' quite a bit.Quote: OnceDearTee hee. Cheap shot indeed: We all make mistakes. But 'your' and 'cant' in the same sentence was too much to bare bear.
Not to be confused with Bull vs Bear, that's a different thread ;-)
Just from the forums' favorite feathered friend...
I almost put 'fearless' in there, but BABBs just reminded me yesterday that I had been hiding under the fridge ;-)
Try this: Just from the forums' favorite almost fearless feathered friend from under the fridge. Done.
Be careful with the F word here (hear!)
Last edited by: TwoFeathersATL on Apr 28, 2016
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
April 28th, 2016 at 8:56:01 AM
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That's the best false dichotomy I've heard in a long while. Of course, you're ignoring the truth: what happens happens but not for the reasons you think. Here's how you interpret your play sessions:Quote: dicesitterIn the end, you keep telling me what happens, cant happen..... so either I am lying
or your 100% wrong, it cant be in between.
a) When you go to a casino, it takes you a little while to warm up and fit your throw to the particular table conditions. But eventually your years of experience practicing at home allows you to recognize whether your throw is working or not. If your throw is working, you stay the course.
b) If your throw isn't working, you draw on the deep well of knowledge from your years of practice and make an adjustment that is designed to make you lose less or win more.
c) Sometimes that change works, and you begin to win money. This is because you are a skillful dice thrower.
d) Sometimes the change doesn't work and you keep losing. This is because your shot is off that day.
Far be it for anyone to point out that nothing in that scenario is properly attributable to anything more than sheer luck, whether good or bad. If you want to believe you're controlling the dice, go ahead. The fact that you're not a millionaire by now should give you pause, but that's only if you can follow the reasoning behind it. If you don't see anything fallacious about the conclusions in steps A-D above, there's nothing anyone here can say to change your mind.
Fortunately, there's a moral to this story:
You spent thousands of dollars on dice-control seminars, bought a craps table for your basement, and spent eight years practicing. After all that time, money, and effort, you still can't regularly beat the casinos for thousands of dollars. Everyone else who is considering "getting into dice control" should use your experiences as a cautionary tale.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 28th, 2016 at 10:48:36 AM
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math
I understand your trying to make yourself feel good..... but your wrong!!!
I am doing very well, I am winning, I am as far away from being a broke person as you can get, I am as
far away from being a losing craps player ( the past 1.5 years ) as you can get.
Sooner or later you will be right about something, I hope I am on here to see it.
dicesetter
I understand your trying to make yourself feel good..... but your wrong!!!
I am doing very well, I am winning, I am as far away from being a broke person as you can get, I am as
far away from being a losing craps player ( the past 1.5 years ) as you can get.
Sooner or later you will be right about something, I hope I am on here to see it.
dicesetter
April 28th, 2016 at 10:56:34 AM
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TwofearthersATL
That crap is ok, Math does the same thing, When I present data off my experience, he has but one
thing he can do, that is indicate I recorded the numbers incorrectly, or indicate I don't
understand what they mean.... He has to do that because the numbers don't add up to
what he has been telling people.
The numbers I showed the other day when I compared an alternate shot with the shot
and set taught by a craps school. I have done that a hundred times, but to him this
is not possible, it just cant happen, so you have to talk about something else.
Math cant accept some one else has a different way to play the game, and do it well.
dicesetter
That crap is ok, Math does the same thing, When I present data off my experience, he has but one
thing he can do, that is indicate I recorded the numbers incorrectly, or indicate I don't
understand what they mean.... He has to do that because the numbers don't add up to
what he has been telling people.
The numbers I showed the other day when I compared an alternate shot with the shot
and set taught by a craps school. I have done that a hundred times, but to him this
is not possible, it just cant happen, so you have to talk about something else.
Math cant accept some one else has a different way to play the game, and do it well.
dicesetter
April 28th, 2016 at 10:57:42 AM
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Quote: OnceDearTBH my patience with this thread is wearing thin too. You just won't listen will you?...
Whether it's the DI crowd, baccarat, roulette, or whatever. Do they ever listen? I don't know why any of you waste your time on this nonsense.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
April 28th, 2016 at 11:56:12 AM
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Quote: dicesitter.... I have done that a hundred times, but to him this is not possible, it just cant happen.
For [expletive deleted]'s sake.
When are you going to start to comprehend. ME DOES NOT, HAS NOT AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL tell you that your results are not possible. I don't even think he has said that your results are particularly unlikely!
It has, however been said, probably hundreds of times that your hundreds of observed results and those few results which you have mentioned here don't amount to a hill of beans in evidence to establish that your practice makes any difference whatsoever.
Just take your skills to the casino, with your nice expanded bankroll and start to seriously leverage and monetise your skill. Stop wasting your time here: The potential monetary profit is far greater than any kudos you might earn here.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
April 28th, 2016 at 12:32:12 PM
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Sure you are:Quote: dicesitterI am doing very well, I am winning, I am as far away from being a broke person as you can get, I am as
far away from being a losing craps player ( the past 1.5 years ) as you can get.
Quote: dicesitterBe a little careful here, I am on a fixed income, I may have to sell one of my boats to pay the $2000. I cant be running around the country and buying dinner and drinks.
Quote: dicesitterI went way out on a limb considering I am retired and got a bank loan for $300 so she can gamble all she wants without being broke the first day.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 28th, 2016 at 1:55:01 PM
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Oncedear
Laughing
We play twice a week.... we are doooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooing great....
Math cant stand it.
dicesetter
Laughing
We play twice a week.... we are doooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooing great....
Math cant stand it.
dicesetter
April 28th, 2016 at 4:12:09 PM
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I think me and ds should meet up and eat chicken mcnuggets until one cannot carry on with this thread......no getting help from poker grinder as he is obviously a mcnugget influencer.
get second you pig
April 28th, 2016 at 4:32:36 PM
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Sure looks like he'd need to get another bank loan to pay for the McNuggets.
ME just hoisted him on his own (financial) petard: DS says he's doing well financially, and ME impeached him with his recent posts to the contrary.
*golf clap*
ME just hoisted him on his own (financial) petard: DS says he's doing well financially, and ME impeached him with his recent posts to the contrary.
*golf clap*
"What, me worry?"
April 28th, 2016 at 4:54:38 PM
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McNugget influence:Quote: ontariodealerI think me and ds should meet up and eat chicken mcnuggets until one cannot carry on with this thread......no getting help from poker grinder as he is obviously a mcnugget influencer.
How close to the end of a craps table can you throw a pair of Chicken McNuggets?
McNugget shooting:
Can you swallow a Chicken McNugget without chewing it?
McNugget control:
After you swallow it, can you, um, never mind.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 28th, 2016 at 6:22:35 PM
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Quote: MathExtremistMcNugget influence:
How close to the end of a craps table can you throw a pair of Chicken McNuggets?
McNugget shooting:
Can you swallow a Chicken McNugget without chewing it?
McNugget control:
After you swallow it, can you, um, never mind.
I think if you put them in your mouth the same way, then they will exit the same way.
get second you pig
April 30th, 2016 at 12:56:41 PM
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Quote: DicesitterNumber 1 dice do not have to stay on axis to get an edge, second, the dice shot does not have to be perfect to get an edge, and third ou don't need to get the exact results from day to day from your shot to get an edge.
While you feel it unnecessary to quantify your edge, you obviously know that you have an edge as long as your shots stay below the pyramids and visually fit your particular criteria for a precision shot that can be used for an edge, with or without set/toss tweaks added, if need be.
Since so many have contributed time and effort to this thread, are we not going to come to any conclusion other than endless dissension?
My proposal is that we loosen some requirements and see if a compromise event can be worked out. These suggestions will need to be tweaked on both sides but only if these tweaks will be countenanced by both sides:
1. Have the event at a regulation table with an unmarred felt/microfiber surface and undamaged backwall rubber, etc.
Tweak: Does it really have to be a live casino vs. someplace like a Dice Coach table in LAS or some similar venue without pit critters and pit cameras buzzing overtime and dealers making untimely remarks, strangers, etc?
Have at least 4 or 5 witnesses from both sides around, not just a single witness. While a recording should be made, adequate witnesses would fit the bill?
2. Let DS have at least 10-20 warm-up tosses to get his shot in gear at the event craps table which he may do in private, that is with the others sufficiently away from the table to allow him uninterrupted focus and acclimation to the specific table's characteristics.
3. Since DS is not apparently wanting to make this about money, let it be a professional meeting where no one is allowed to make any disparaging remarks about ANYTHING. (Be nice.) An obvious perp gets called on his obvious transgression and must provide 100$ CASH to the opposing side's witness kitty. Each witness better bring enough cash to pay for his/her loose lips or they will be cast out of the venue unless another witness on that side is willing to cough up the dough. This might all be better done via an escrow of some sort as long as it is speedy and agreed upon.
4. The contest should be rather straightforward and agreed upon, obviously.
The Math Guys here should come up with a reasonable number of hands to determine if there is a sufficient deviation from random expectation but not require an onerous burden be placed on the shooter, DS.
5. I prefer ME tossing backwards over his shoulders and perhaps with a few hook shots or cup-shots thrown in to be the principal on the Math Guys side since this thread has really been primarily between ME and DS. However, anyone they choose who throws in an unskilled, unpracticed manner should do.
6. DS must execute a legal shot. That means that he can't overextend his arms into the box area. He must not take more than 12 seconds in total to execute a single shot; he must both set and toss within 12 seconds. The backwall must be contacted. As long as he contacts any part of the backwall rubber BY BOTH DICE it is ok, even if they don't react backwards by a specified distance. During a hand of dice, there should not be more than 15 seconds before starting the next toss. (We don't want this to take all day!)
A non-legal shot does not count. During a single hand, no more than three non-legal shots are allowed without a penalty of that side coughing up $100 to the other side's kitty for each succeeding non-legal toss in that hand. No foreign objects, finger-guides, rulers, etc. are allowed by the shooters as likewise disallowed by any live casino craps pit.
7. A coin toss determines which side begins the very first hand. Each side executes their tosses till a seven occurs. Then the other side commences tossing until a seven which ends their hand. This marks the completion of one full "tournement hand(THand)". After two THands, the other side is the beginning shooter for the 3rd and 4th THands and then so alternates until the end of all THands.
Can we just make this thread come to its long awaited finale so that we may conclude this thread with a definitive rejection or a willingness to simply demonstrate DI as quickly and respectfully as possible?
As an alternative, make a massive hue and cry calling for my account to be immediately erased, and then please have the Administrator erase this entire thread with Gutmann(35 passes) and just make it STOP... PLEASE, JUST MAKE IT STOOOOOOOOOOP!!!!
April 30th, 2016 at 1:39:35 PM
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Quote: onebokCan we just make this thread come to its long awaited finale so that we may conclude this thread with a definitive rejection or a willingness to simply demonstrate DI as quickly and respectfully as possible?
And while you are at it, please also have Jesus walk across a swimming pool!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
May 1st, 2016 at 6:47:41 AM
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The end is near.
May 1st, 2016 at 7:18:56 AM
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Onebok
Laughing, you just put in as much time on this as I do.
This whole thing is silly. The stuff math preaches wont work, has never worked and will never work.
I merely have suggested that if a player has a decent shot, there are times he or she can make an
adjustment in set and get some different results.... the other day I suggested with data, that the
hard way set can be a problem for the average player trained at certain dice schools. Nothing
strange about that, that is a fact. Of course some of the guys on here cant stand that.
This week I played at Wisconsin Dells, Keshena, Green Bay and Carter. 6 sessions, 4 wins, 1loss and
a draw. Funny thing was at the Dells my friend throws the GTC shot from SL1, and that is all. He has
no other shot. But he has had trouble with the single pitch double pitch seven more and more as
he took more classes. As I indicated 2 weeks ago he took another class (now I would not have
taken another class) and played once he got home and it was even worse... so Friday before we
played I showed him a simple quarter turn adjustment. After two short rolls with the same problem,
he made that change and had 4 rolls over 20, same guy, same dice, same table. I only shoot
4 times and was not to good with a 4,8,16,21.
The point I have been making is not that any adjustment works all the time or maybe not
at all, it is that if your results are bad, try something different that makes sense......If you
can find some problem with that, I would love to hear it. Since Math would suggest
that my buddy and I are poverty stricken, uneducated street sweepers, you would think
Math would assume an adjustment would be a natural thing to do since we are not
smart enough to use the same set two throws in a row.
By the way, my time of shot is 6-7 seconds.
dicesetter
Laughing, you just put in as much time on this as I do.
This whole thing is silly. The stuff math preaches wont work, has never worked and will never work.
I merely have suggested that if a player has a decent shot, there are times he or she can make an
adjustment in set and get some different results.... the other day I suggested with data, that the
hard way set can be a problem for the average player trained at certain dice schools. Nothing
strange about that, that is a fact. Of course some of the guys on here cant stand that.
This week I played at Wisconsin Dells, Keshena, Green Bay and Carter. 6 sessions, 4 wins, 1loss and
a draw. Funny thing was at the Dells my friend throws the GTC shot from SL1, and that is all. He has
no other shot. But he has had trouble with the single pitch double pitch seven more and more as
he took more classes. As I indicated 2 weeks ago he took another class (now I would not have
taken another class) and played once he got home and it was even worse... so Friday before we
played I showed him a simple quarter turn adjustment. After two short rolls with the same problem,
he made that change and had 4 rolls over 20, same guy, same dice, same table. I only shoot
4 times and was not to good with a 4,8,16,21.
The point I have been making is not that any adjustment works all the time or maybe not
at all, it is that if your results are bad, try something different that makes sense......If you
can find some problem with that, I would love to hear it. Since Math would suggest
that my buddy and I are poverty stricken, uneducated street sweepers, you would think
Math would assume an adjustment would be a natural thing to do since we are not
smart enough to use the same set two throws in a row.
By the way, my time of shot is 6-7 seconds.
dicesetter
May 1st, 2016 at 1:28:53 PM
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If that is a picture of Mike's swimming pool, may we assume Mike made it to Church today?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
May 1st, 2016 at 2:23:18 PM
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I hope the Mrs. didn't have to hitch hike home, after you borrowed money from her ?Quote: dicesittermy buddy and I are poverty stricken,
May 1st, 2016 at 6:39:54 PM
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petroglyph
I am not sure, she called Friday and said she won $500 on some card game, but then said
that made her about even, so for a very small better she must have had a real bad
Thursday since she only had half a day there. She is supposed to be home here any
time so I will know soon enough.
I had a good weekend so I should be able to cover the bank loan.
dicesetter
PS being as poor as Math thinks I am is so hard you know.
I am not sure, she called Friday and said she won $500 on some card game, but then said
that made her about even, so for a very small better she must have had a real bad
Thursday since she only had half a day there. She is supposed to be home here any
time so I will know soon enough.
I had a good weekend so I should be able to cover the bank loan.
dicesetter
PS being as poor as Math thinks I am is so hard you know.
May 2nd, 2016 at 9:03:48 AM
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Quote: DicesitterI merely have suggested that if a player has a decent shot, there are times he or she can make an adjustment in set and get some different results
I, as well as ME, have clearly stated that we have no bone to pick with you or anyone trying toss/set tweaks when the current toss is not working. The big difference is that you attribute your set/toss tweaks with causing effects which we would attribute to simple variance. Since you can never know what would have been tossed if you had/hadn't made that tweak, it's simply your assertion of knowledge of your skills that lets you view the tweaks as having positive effects rather than variance.
My question is simple. You obviously know your shot well enough to win more often than not, which is how you describe your many recent sessions in various venues. Can you not WARM UP at a regulation table and figure out how your toss is running and simply toss a specified number of hands of dice such that they would be better than what would occur at random?
This is a fairly basic demonstration of craps throwing skill that should easily beat random when your toss is warmed up. After all, there needs to be some way that you or anyone who claims to have an edge at craps to distinguish their considerable skill from the average Joe's scatter shots. Just curious, how would you design a demonstration of verifiable skill from sheer random luck, prior to shooting the dice at a regulation table? I'm sure the math wizards on this site can take your suggestions and design a verifiable test of non-randomness. If you wanted to start each hand with a certain number of chips and then you and the random shooter would compete on winnings, etc. ---these details could be worked out relatively easily, I presume.
Would having two different sessions be better so if your shot is off on one session you would have another session several hours later or perhaps the next day to recover and throw better?
If there is no way you would objectively demonstrate your skills can beat random, then you must not have the confidence in your skills to expect an edge at craps(via sevens avoidance or winnings).
May 2nd, 2016 at 1:47:35 PM
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Onebok
Some very good questions.
I don't think any of my answers will be good enough for you, not even close for Math.
I think I have said many times the idea of a constant edge is in my opinion a myth. I
'understand there are craps schools that preach that. I guess I have never been good
enough to do that.
What I find over and over is that the better I make the shot, the better my chance is to
beat the table. Not that the shot is that good, but it allows me to make a set change or
two.
Now for me, that means I win, I don't give a crap how much I win. I have
more than enough money to last me my last number of years, and bragging rights
over large wins means even less than nothing to me.
Saturday I played on a tub, it is very, very bouncy. I watched two guys buy in for
$100 and lose quickly with 3/4 3/4 3/4 etc. I bought in and first three hands I
had 3/4 3/4 3/4. I changed sets and moved my landing spot about 18 inches
and began to hit some of the same numbers I hit at home with that set and actually
made my money back and a profit. I was happy with that and since I was going to
meet a guy at another casino I left. I did not plan this short visit, I had to put the dock in
at my lake cabin and thought this table would have been open earlier in the day.
That night I started out about the same ,but did not have to make any significant change
and ended with a small profit, ate dinner and was tired so I just went home.
I am not sure what you would consider a skill etc, but I think over 20 hands I will
zero in good enough that my average effect would beat random.
When I first took a class, I had hoped I could play craps after I retired and not have
it impact my retirement income. I related to Axel, that later, it had gotten to be a little
more than that for me. Be that as it may, I am retired and playing a lot of craps
and it has been a time since I actually went into my funds to get money to play.
So for me I am 100% sure that what I see is not all variance.
dicesetter
Some very good questions.
I don't think any of my answers will be good enough for you, not even close for Math.
I think I have said many times the idea of a constant edge is in my opinion a myth. I
'understand there are craps schools that preach that. I guess I have never been good
enough to do that.
What I find over and over is that the better I make the shot, the better my chance is to
beat the table. Not that the shot is that good, but it allows me to make a set change or
two.
Now for me, that means I win, I don't give a crap how much I win. I have
more than enough money to last me my last number of years, and bragging rights
over large wins means even less than nothing to me.
Saturday I played on a tub, it is very, very bouncy. I watched two guys buy in for
$100 and lose quickly with 3/4 3/4 3/4 etc. I bought in and first three hands I
had 3/4 3/4 3/4. I changed sets and moved my landing spot about 18 inches
and began to hit some of the same numbers I hit at home with that set and actually
made my money back and a profit. I was happy with that and since I was going to
meet a guy at another casino I left. I did not plan this short visit, I had to put the dock in
at my lake cabin and thought this table would have been open earlier in the day.
That night I started out about the same ,but did not have to make any significant change
and ended with a small profit, ate dinner and was tired so I just went home.
I am not sure what you would consider a skill etc, but I think over 20 hands I will
zero in good enough that my average effect would beat random.
When I first took a class, I had hoped I could play craps after I retired and not have
it impact my retirement income. I related to Axel, that later, it had gotten to be a little
more than that for me. Be that as it may, I am retired and playing a lot of craps
and it has been a time since I actually went into my funds to get money to play.
So for me I am 100% sure that what I see is not all variance.
dicesetter
