Quote:OnceDearNo-one said it's impossible.

What was said or at least massively implied is that it was incredibly, massively, unbelievably unlikely, and far more unlikely than Alan spouting a false memory for any reason such as maybe promoting his forum, hallucination, intoxication, dementia, posturing, self-agrandisement, trolling, you name it. ( Any one of those things far more likely - you choose.)

So, basically, instead of just saying "I don't believe you", we have again chased away a decent member.

Good on us!!

This is by far the most entertaining thread EVER on this forum. I LOLed several times reading it. Kinda took a turn at the end though.

I compiled the math highlights for easy reference in one place. You just gotta love math.

Quote:Wizard

To put this in comparison:

Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000

Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.

So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.

18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000

Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338

Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200

So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row.

I calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.

It's not that it's impossible. It's about competing possibilities that don't indicate the person is a liar.

*there are good chances that memory failed - since Alan is adamant, let's only put it at say 1 in 10^6 - one in a million

*if I am doing it right, the chances of 18 yos in a row happening produce chances at approx 1 in 10^22

so the chances that Alan is simply mistaken, not lying, is overwhelmingly more likely by many, many, [can hardly be overstated] many orders of magnitude.

Yes it could have happened. A reasonable person concludes there is probably another explanation for this story.

It is about equally likely for a person to win the grand prize in back-to-back PowerBall lotteries AND get struck by lightning as get 18 11's in a row.

By contrast, a high percentage of our memories are fake,

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/11/how-many-of-your-memories-are-fake/281558/

Occam's razor comes to mind.

Oops. Time for more coffee. No, twice in a row. I meant "more likely" in the calculation above. I'm going to edit it.Quote:WizardofnothingWait how can that be possible- are you speaking of any prize in powerball?

For shame people. For shame.

Don't know about other casinos but in Vegas if you ask nicely they will let you take a photo of whatever is happening at the table minus taking a pic of the dealer and supervisor. Slap it on here and you got proof.

Quote:teliotOops. Time for more coffee. No, twice in a row. I meant "more likely" in the calculation above. I'm going to edit it.

That is impressive that you edited it in 1970.