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RonC
RonC
Joined: Jan 18, 2010
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January 8th, 2016 at 8:29:11 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

No-one said it's impossible.
What was said or at least massively implied is that it was incredibly, massively, unbelievably unlikely, and far more unlikely than Alan spouting a false memory for any reason such as maybe promoting his forum, hallucination, intoxication, dementia, posturing, self-agrandisement, trolling, you name it. ( Any one of those things far more likely - you choose.)



So, basically, instead of just saying "I don't believe you", we have again chased away a decent member.

Good on us!!
Canyonero
Canyonero
Joined: Nov 19, 2012
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January 8th, 2016 at 8:47:20 AM permalink
I seem to be late to the party...

This is by far the most entertaining thread EVER on this forum. I LOLed several times reading it. Kinda took a turn at the end though.

I compiled the math highlights for easy reference in one place. You just gotta love math.

Quote: Wizard



To put this in comparison:

Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.

So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.


18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338
Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200

So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row.


I calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.

GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:13:23 AM permalink
WTF, can't someone just leave and not come back? Why do people need the HEY LOOK AT ME I AM LEAVING? I am guessing it is the same reason one would make a claim like this. If you don't like it here then just leave. No reason to ask to have an account removed.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:33:33 AM permalink
I like the logic someone hashed out once - geez, I owe that person the dap, but I forget who.

It's not that it's impossible. It's about competing possibilities that don't indicate the person is a liar.

*there are good chances that memory failed - since Alan is adamant, let's only put it at say 1 in 10^6 - one in a million

*if I am doing it right, the chances of 18 yos in a row happening produce chances at approx 1 in 10^22

so the chances that Alan is simply mistaken, not lying, is overwhelmingly more likely by many, many, [can hardly be overstated] many orders of magnitude.

Yes it could have happened. A reasonable person concludes there is probably another explanation for this story.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:56:08 AM permalink
(Edited)

It is about equally likely for a person to win the grand prize in back-to-back PowerBall lotteries AND get struck by lightning as get 18 11's in a row.

By contrast, a high percentage of our memories are fake,

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/11/how-many-of-your-memories-are-fake/281558/

Occam's razor comes to mind.
Last edited by: teliot on Jan 8, 2016
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
Joined: Jul 3, 2015
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:59:10 AM permalink
Wait how can that be possible- are you speaking of any prize in powerball?
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:00:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Wait how can that be possible- are you speaking of any prize in powerball?

Oops. Time for more coffee. No, twice in a row. I meant "more likely" in the calculation above. I'm going to edit it.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:03:24 AM permalink
First was Ahigh and now this.

For shame people. For shame.

Don't know about other casinos but in Vegas if you ask nicely they will let you take a photo of whatever is happening at the table minus taking a pic of the dealer and supervisor. Slap it on here and you got proof.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:14:15 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Oops. Time for more coffee. No, twice in a row. I meant "more likely" in the calculation above. I'm going to edit it.



That is impressive that you edited it in 1970.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:16:20 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

That is impressive that you edited it in 1970.

That's the beginning of the "Epoch" -- computer time does not exist before that date.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com

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