Long Shots

If you gamble enough you are sure to see some incredibly rare things. Last night it was five consecutive elevens. The eleven will roll one time in eighteen. Five of them in a row: (1/18)^5 = 1 in 1,889,568. Yikes!! I don't think I can play enough craps in my lifetime to see that again.

Sadly, nobody won much on this streak. Nobody had a yo bet up when it started, and nobody was willing to risk that it would hit again, or a third time, or ... I think one guy at my end had a $5 horn, which he finally doubled after the fourth hit. It was on the come out, so at least I won $25 ... which I promptly lost. The point was a 6, I figured this shooter was the luckiest guy on the planet and bet the $25 on the hard 6. Next roll - 7. A $5 yo doubled after each win would have netted $2170, assuming you didn't run into table limits. Ahh, well, another 1 in a million opportunity squandered.

Quote: seattledice

If you gamble enough you are sure to see some incredibly rare things. Last night it was five consecutive elevens. The eleven will roll one time in eighteen. Five of them in a row: (1/18)^5 = 1 in 1,889,568. Yikes!! I don't think I can play enough craps in my lifetime to see that again.

Sadly, nobody won much on this streak. Nobody had a yo bet up when it started, and nobody was willing to risk that it would hit again, or a third time, or ... I think one guy at my end had a $5 horn, which he finally doubled after the fourth hit. It was on the come out, so at least I won $25 ... which I promptly lost. The point was a 6, I figured this shooter was the luckiest guy on the planet and bet the $25 on the hard 6. Next roll - 7. A $5 yo doubled after each win would have netted $2170, assuming you didn't run into table limits. Ahh, well, another 1 in a million opportunity squandered.

My best was 3 yo's in a row. On the comeout with me betting a $5 horn high yo pressing to a $20 horn after the first one. The other guy at the table had a c/e for $5 I think with a $2 c/e for the crew. I believe he always pressed his and the crews bet 1 unit each time.

Two weeks ago I was playing $2 high-low on every comeout roll, intending to parlay if it hit. It hit once but lost the parlay on the next roll. Last night I had the dice once and threw aces back to back, but unfortunately wasn't playing the high-low.

Quote: seattledice

If you gamble enough you are sure to see some incredibly rare things. Last night it was five consecutive elevens. The eleven will roll one time in eighteen. Five of them in a row: (1/18)^5 = 1 in 1,889,568. Yikes!! I don't think I can play enough craps in my lifetime to see that again.

That's actually the calculation for five OR MORE elevens, because it doesn't include the non-eleven on the sixth roll.

p(5 elevens plus non-eleven) = (1/18)^5 * 17/18 = .0000005 or over 2 million to 1 against.

After five elevens in a row, the eleven is still a 1/18 shot, as I'm sure you know, seattle.

Suppose the player started with $5 on the yo, with a $500 limit on prop bets.
1 win $75
2 bet $80, win $1200 (cumulative $1275) or lose $80, net zero
3 bet $500, win $7500 (cumulative $8775) or lose $500, net $775
4 bet $500, win $7500 (cumulative $16,275) or lose $500, net $8275
5 bet $500, win $7500 (cumulative $23,775) or lose $500, net $15,775)
6 bet $500, lose $500
That would net $23,275.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

Quote: seattledice

If you gamble enough you are sure to see some incredibly rare things. Last night it was five consecutive elevens. The eleven will roll one time in eighteen. Five of them in a row: (1/18)^5 = 1 in 1,889,568. Yikes!! I don't think I can play enough craps in my lifetime to see that again.

That's actually the calculation for five OR MORE elevens, because it doesn't include the non-eleven on the sixth roll.

p(5 elevens plus non-eleven) = (1/18)^5 * 17/18 = .0000005 or over 2 million to 1 against.

After five elevens in a row, the eleven is still a 1/18 shot, as I'm sure you know, seattle.

Suppose the player started with $5 on the yo, with a $500 limit on prop bets.
1 win $75
2 bet $80, win $1200 (cumulative $1275) or lose $80, net zero
3 bet $500, win $7500 (cumulative $8775) or lose $500, net $775
4 bet $500, win $7500 (cumulative $16,275) or lose $500, net $8275
5 bet $500, win $7500 (cumulative $23,775) or lose $500, net $15,775)
6 bet $500, lose $500
That would net $23,275.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Thanks for the clarification Alan - I tend to forget to include that final piece, like the non-eleven.