Joined: Apr 4, 2012
• Posts: 6506
January 7th, 2016 at 6:53:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Can anyone do a comparison of likelihood of losing thirty hands of blackjack vs 18 11s in a row

There he is! :)
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 20137
January 7th, 2016 at 6:57:31 PM permalink

Alan - I empathize with you in this thread - as 'they' did it me here—> 30 hands in a row—I was crucified and still not believed

False memories, delusions, believing a dream are more common than you might think. There are far more probable and logical explanations then the event it's itself.

Even people with a way above average memory will remember many things things that didn't really happen.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
• Posts: 1002
January 7th, 2016 at 7:45:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

To put this in comparison:

Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.

So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.

But...what if the monkey is a Rubik's cube setter???
Deucekies
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
• Posts: 1328
January 7th, 2016 at 8:36:48 PM permalink
If Alan said he's seen it happen twice, then I'd call boolsh on him, but no matter how long the odds, 18 yos has to happen sometime, doesn't it?

If it was Michael who made this claim, would you be doubting it?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 24211
January 7th, 2016 at 9:15:14 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

If Alan said he's seen it happen twice, then I'd call boolsh on him, but no matter how long the odds, 18 yos has to happen sometime, doesn't it?

I calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz

Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 9422
January 7th, 2016 at 10:41:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.

So, after the 17th yo, the dice would recognize the previous events and not land that way? You are saying 18 throws of a yo can't happen in a row because the dice have memory and are not really independent events?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
January 7th, 2016 at 10:57:08 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

So, after the 17th yo, the dice would recognize the previous events and not land that way? You are saying 18 throws of a yo can't happen in a row because the dice have memory and are not really independent events?

beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14234
January 7th, 2016 at 11:29:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338
Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200

So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row.

BTW, is it yos or yo's? Somebody ask BBB.

it's absolutely yo's, because "yo" isn't a word except as Craps spoken slang, so looks like an acronym or abbreviation without the apostrophe. The point is reader comprehension, and the apostrophe helps in that.

Does that help with my push-up balance? I bought a ticket. It had the 17 PB, and I did the PP, so I get \$12 back. But I'm mindful of your "good bet" tag, so I confess my transgression with blushing cheeks. :)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AlanMendelson

Joined: Oct 5, 2011
• Posts: 4856
January 8th, 2016 at 12:50:32 AM permalink
Quote: Aussie

Something like this would be well remembered by dice dealers at the casino in question. Why doesn't someone go there and ask? Might even be able to track down "James" the stick man and ask for him to confirm.

Absolutely. James has retired and I don't recall who the other dealers were or the floorman but they wouldn't be there anymore either. There's been a lot of turnover.

As I mentioned, a few weeks after this happened I asked a manager if there would be tapes available and I was told it was too late. Whatever tapes there are would not have been kept unless an inquiry was made at the time.

I keep hoping that one day the "shooter" will show up on a forum, maybe this one, to tell the story.
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014