I'd guess 72 blacks in a row would make at least the local newspaper if not going viral all over the international news. The lack of any public record or at least the rumor getting in the news is quite telling imo.
This could not only be the the most unlikely streak in the gambling history, but the most unlikely streak in human history period.
As Alan would say, "BUT IT HAPPENED!"Quote: rawtuff
This could not only be the the most unlikely streak in the gambling history, but the most unlikely streak in human history period.
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When and why did Alan first report this? Was he trying to prove a point? Was it something regarding DI and how random rollers can get lucky? We all know Alan claims he is one of the few people to have ever played craps with someone who can influence the dice. He believes everyone else is full of it, and he wants proof of their DI claims.
I think the first time I remember him mentioning the big 18 was when AOS allegedly lost 30 hands of BJ in a row. Let's not forget AOS tried to make it sound more credible by adding the fact that it was on 3 different tables. I honestly believe AOS believes he lost 30 in a row, whereas Alan doesn't actually believe he himself seen 18 yo's in a row.
IMO, at some point Alan seen an abnormal amount of yo's during a session ( probably 3 in a row and 18 in total).
He probably just tossed out "in a row" to add some wow factor to it, not realizing just how absurdity Ludicrous it was. At that point he couldn't take it back or everything he ever said might be questioned.
I wonder whether his diabetic kidney failure issues contributed to what might be considered a false memory?
WebMD states: "As kidney damage progresses, your kidneys cannot remove the waste from your blood. The waste then builds up in your body and can reach poisonous levels, a condition known as uremia. People with uremia are often confused or comatose." see link
So another poll choice could have been "confusion caused by uremia," at least if the memory of the 18 yo's became embedded in his noggin about the time his kidney failure was at its worst, probably immediately pre-kidney transplant.
In other words, the memory could be a figment of his imagination, a side effect of disease.
Quote: MrVIt may be that Alan was genuinely confused about what he saw.
I wonder whether his diabetic kidney failure issues contributed to what might be considered a false memory?
WebMD states: "As kidney damage progresses, your kidneys cannot remove the waste from your blood. The waste then builds up in your body and can reach poisonous levels, a condition known as uremia. People with uremia are often confused or comatose." see link
So another poll choice could have been "confusion caused by uremia," at least if the memory of the 18 yo's became embedded in his noggin about the time his kidney failure was at its worst, probably immediately pre-kidney transplant.
In other words, the memory could be a figment of his imagination, a side effect of disease.
I find your continued speculation about Alan's mental or physical health very distasteful and inappropriate. They're why your "poll" got taken down, and there's no question you insulted him to such a degree he resigned, as he said so (on his own site). Stop it now, please. I don't care if it's true or not at this point - this is not the place for it.
What could possibly be deemed inappropriate about speculating as to why someone would make a claim that 99% of us feel to be impossible?
He gets a bye on this?
Whatever.
Quote: MrVThis isn't the place for it?
What could possibly be deemed inappropriate about speculating as to why someone would make a claim that 99% of us feel to be impossible?
He gets a bye on this?
Whatever.
99%, 'Feel,' there's a certain measure of flack that's going to go along with that, but technically the story can't be proven wrong, so there are some limits.
Quote: WizardofnothingI would think discussion about how someone could have mistaken it would be acceptable...: maybe not direct insults but speculation should be ok as long as it does not cross the line....
Oh, that, sure. I just don't know that making inferences based on a guy's health problems is necessarily appropriate.
I almost think of it, assuming it's not true, as being one of those stories from a guy (not Alan, specifically) that you are almost positive is bull, but the guy spins such a great yarn you can't help but enjoy it. I think most people have had a distant relative like that, 'Been everywhere, done everything,' type. Harmless. Best of health and happiness to Alan, I hope he returns.
Does anyone here have experience with Stage 4 ESRD or dialysis? If not, that leaves all such opinions at a minimum as totally unqualified, if not far worse.Quote: HowManyI vote for "confusion caused by uremia"
Quote: MrVThis isn't the place for it?
What could possibly be deemed inappropriate about speculating as to why someone would make a claim that 99% of us feel to be impossible?
He gets a bye on this?
Whatever.
He doesn't "get a bye on this". Who knows why he thinks it happened, including that just maybe it did, though extremely unlikely. It's not inappropriate to suggest he's experiencing a selective memory or misremembering. Where you cross the line is labeling him schizophrenic (twice, at least) or uremic when a) it's clear he's insulted that you did so and b) you're not his physician. I'm following the Wizard's lead on this, as he's the one who took down the poll because of it.
Quote: WizardofnothingHe introduced himself- gave a trip report- all the crap started and he went postal and told Alan to remove and delete his account
He does the same thing around here damn near every week. He needs attention constantly.
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I really don't understand why some people get so emotional about every little thing.
During the B79 dibocale I understand him taking a break.
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AOS here's your chance to come back without everyone rolling their eyes.
Simply say you made a mistake by lending support to Alan and his gazillion to 1 shot by leaving.There are far better ways to show your support.
We are all big boys here (except for back entry kentry) we are not going to coddle you (BBB might☺). Anyone who doesn't already believe you two, well they are not going to change their stance on this. People who already believe you and Alan(all 3) probably don't want to touch this with a 18' or 30' pole.
Both of your actions are comparable to some insecure teenage girl s**t.
Perhaps you should realize WOV is your home and it always will be. You can't fight it, so just except it and come back already and move on. Besides you have one thing going for you. Alan's claim is so absurd and ridiculous that people may be more accepting of your claim.
Quote: SanchoPanzaDoes anyone here have experience with Stage 4 ESRD or dialysis? If not, that leaves all such opinions at a minimum as totally unqualified, if not far worse.
If he was sick enough to be confused from uremia, he probably wouldn't be coherent enough to post on a forum let alone use a computer. We don't see this very often anymore, because most patients start dialysis before they get to that point. Stage 4 kidney disease does not cause confusion.
How much can you win playing video poker?
In another thread I said that I believed a player at high limit video poker, including $25 video poker, could win $100,000 -- and this was based on playing negative expectation games including but not exclusively 8/5 Bonus poker.
I was asked this question:
Quote Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
Alan. If someone can win $100,000 at vp playing high stakes then a quarter player should be able to win $10,000 maybe $20,000 per year playing sub optimal pay tables, correct?
I think it's relative. And of course it depends on how lucky you get.
If a player at $25/coin VP can win $100,000 a year, then I think it is likely a player at $5/coin VP can win $20,000 a year.
At $1/coin the winnings could be $4,000 a year.
At 25-cents/coin it would be $1,000 a year.
Where do I get my numbers from? The payoff on a royal flush.
Suppose you play a 99.2% game -- with a little luck and without a royal you might have a return of 96% or 97%. It's when you hit the royal on top of that 96% or 97% that you have a chance for a yearly profit equal to the royal. There is one important element and that is not putting it all back after you win, and controlling losses when the game isn't going your way.
If there is a 25-cent player who does have a yearly profit of more than a thousand dollars a year -- or $10,000 or $20,000 a year -- then I say good for them. But I wouldn't expect it.
I fully expect a player at $25/coin to be able to have a yearly profit of $100,000 and to me that is not an unreasonable claim.
https://www.facebook.com/pokertube/videos/10153802775614286/
Assuming Robl was 27% to win (as the video shows), it's the same as winning 40 consecutive runs. (okay, to be more precise, 39.7352537 runs). This is assuming that the cards other than Antonius' and Robl's cards and three Flop cards are reshuffled in between runs.Quote: RigondeauxHow many runn outs would he have to win for it to equal 18 yos?
If I remember correctly live keno allowed betting all 20 numbers. I doubt if it's still being done. (is it?) Anyway, that's the closest thing I can think where something improbable might be documented over a period of time.
BTW, that was back in 1990-91.
1. If you are a player at a table and are on an amazing unusual streak, can you ask for some official documentation of such? How would this request be handled?
"Mr Pit Boss... I just rolled 18 yos in a row! Can you help me authenticate the greatest feat in the history of casino gambling?"
2. Would the dealer/pit boss do anything after 6 yos in a row? 9? 12? 15? 18?
3. If people started betting it heavily after yo 4, let's say, they just keep paying and playing, up to the table limit?
It didn't happen.
Looks like he and AOS got their votes in.Quote: WizardTwo people voted for "I believe Alan" in this poll.
#2) "18 yo's in a row"
#1) "I was raped at mile marker 164"
Ya wanna make 18 yo jokes in other threads, I got no problem with that.
Ya wanna keep this thread alive forever, now I got some doubts.
I don't think he was trying to lose weight, I don't think he welched on a bet, I don't think he was talking about the 2012 Presidential election.
I have never yet blocked a thread, or a poster (well once by fat fingered accident), not until now.
I don't play craps, but I would make an exception if I see Alan at a table (will never happen).
I'm done here, and I left sad.
Quote: TwoFeathersATLJust me, but I think this thread has served it's purpose
Agreed, I don't like to block Craps threads, but this one is really showing its age.
Long ago that's the fist thing I blocked, then I blocked a bunch of other threads. I'm now regretting my mass blocking binge, because I didn't realize then that even the seemingly boring and useless threads sometimes take an interesting turn. I'm always wondering if i'm missing something interestingQuote: odiousgambitAgreed, I don't like to block Craps threads, but this one is really showing its age.
It's to time consuming to unblock them all.
Perhaps they can make a unblock/block all button for us.
PS. I would also like a PM search feature.
Quote: AxelWolfLong ago that's the fist thing I blocked, then I blocked a bunch of other threads. I'm now regretting my mass blocking binge, because I didn't realize then that even the seemingly boring and useless threads sometimes take an interesting turn. I'm always wondering if i'm missing something interesting
It's to time consuming to unblock them all.
Perhaps they can make a unblock/block all button for us.
PS. I would also like a PM search feature.
PM search feature would be wonderful. So would being able to sort by sender.
Actually, there already is a 'block all' feature ;-)Quote: AxelWolf
Perhaps they can make a unblock/block all button for us.
Someone (Sabre, actually) stated the odds of finding a computer glitch in a casino that could result in a $100K pay-day were greater than the odds of seeing 18 yo's in a row.
I don't know how anyone could measure that mathematically, and we are obviously looking a human error situation, but if it is measurable, I imagine based on knowledge of the entire vetting process of the gaming world, is this true?
Is it a greater likelihood of seeing 18 yo's thrown in a row than finding a computer glitch worth $100K in a day inside a casino?
And yes, I'm getting at the fact that at least this can be demonstrably seen as having been achieved. And if the odds are greater than seeing 18 yo;s, then everyone on here will have to admit it is possible Alan saw it.
Going off what THE WIZARD. Said about all the craps tables going for the length of the sun yadda yadda yadda.
Two come to mind instantly with the aqueduct issue and the video poker double up- so sabre is not even close in his assessment because those two occurred just in the last five years alone. I'm sure other members clearly know this estimate is not close to accurate ..... Sorry sabre
It's not just a computer glitch he also said promotions.Quote: darkozWell, I mentioned this where it came up in another thread but repeating it here might make some sense.
Someone (Sabre, actually) stated the odds of finding a computer glitch in a casino that could result in a $100K pay-day were greater than the odds of seeing 18 yo's in a row.
I don't know how anyone could measure that mathematically, and we are obviously looking a human error situation, but if it is measurable, I imagine based on knowledge of the entire vetting process of the gaming world, is this true?
Is it a greater likelihood of seeing 18 yo's thrown in a row than finding a computer glitch worth $100K in a day inside a casino?
And yes, I'm getting at the fact that at least this can be demonstrably seen as having been achieved. And if the odds are greater than seeing 18 yo;s, then everyone on here will have to admit it is possible Alan saw it.
It's not even close to compare the two.
Quote: AxelWolfIt's not just a computer glitch he also said promotions.
It's not even close to compare the two.
Yes, I was thinking that too.
Promotions should not be included because those can easily come from a marketing department that doesn't understand the math, properly vets the outcome or calculates for team play.
But computer glitches are something different. Slots and E-games go through rigorous testing, development, mathematical calculations and then independent testing with labs usually (from what I understand) on a state by state basis, then followed by test runs in casinos.
So, with that in mind, the chances of finding such a glitch that escaped all that should be astronomical. And yet, we know that has happened.
Bugs and glitches are found ALL THE TIME in programs you buy, websites online, the OS on your computer or iPhone, etc. And (almost) all those programs have gone through intensive testing looking for bugs & glitches. Are the odds astronomical that there exist glitches in a Microsoft Windows product?
Better yet -- what's this have to do with throwing 18 yos in a row? Come on, let's be real for a sec. Look at the math, try to understand the math, look at the odds of it happening! Next you're gonna tell me someone hit the megabucks jackpot on 3 consecutive spins!
Quote: RS...Next you're gonna tell me someone hit the megabucks jackpot on 3 consecutive spins!
I was playing blackjack on the Northern Belle back in the late 90's when a guy hit the top jackpot on a 50¢ Silver & Gold slot machine ($2000).
Back then after they paid you, they made you spin off the jackpot. When he did, he hit the same $2000 jackpot again. It was memorable because the machine was loud and it took forever for the attendant to pay him the first time.