18 yo's in a row (split-off)
You may use the approximation of the probability of 18 consecutive yos in 20,000 totals rolls of 20000/(18^18). An exact form of that probability would be rather complicated to work out.
Quote: WizardMath time! Assume that Alan's memory is such that 99% of events happened as he claims. He has witnessed 20,000 dice rolls in his lifetime. He claims that at one time he witnessed 18 consecutive yos. What is the probability this is a true statement?
I'll be interested in seeing if the mathletes can solve this problem without personal insults now that they have the protection of Alan not being a member in good standing. I think it is a good problem to work and I don't know if he saw it or not, but too many seem to think that it is IMPOSSIBLE rather than highly IMPROBABLE. Toss in an insult and there goes another decent member.
Quote: RonC
too many seem to think that it is IMPOSSIBLE rather than highly IMPROBABLE. Toss in an insult and there goes another decent member.
But the numbers don't say "highly improbable". The numbers say "It didn't happen."
If Alan were on trial for murder, and the probability that he were innocent were 1000x higher than 18 yos in a row, he would be sentenced to death in a heartbeat. Guilty way beyond reasonable doubt.
I wish 1BB was still here. I wonder how many people he would have reported for personal insults....oh, the world may never know!
Quote: RSUnfortunately, I believe the "member not in good standing" does not apply to those who have self-banned themselves. Perhaps we still can't freely insult Alan, but he is in red now....and I think for a minimum of 1 year.
We've never set a firm policy on this, but Alan asked that we delete his account, which we can't do, but I interpret that as a wish to give up his right to return and insult protection. So, he can be assumed to be a non-member. However, let's still be gentlemen about it. Alan may not be a probability wiz and his memory may not be perfect but he seemed like a very decent nice guy to me.
Quote: CanyoneroBut the numbers don't say "highly improbable". The numbers say "It didn't happen."
If Alan were on trial for murder, and the probability that he were innocent were 1000x higher than 18 yos in a row, he would be sentenced to death in a heartbeat. Guilty way beyond reasonable doubt.
hmmmmmm ever hear of the OJ verdict?
If Alan stated a 13 was rolled then yes "it didn't happen" but an 11 coming up 18 hands in a row is a mathematical probability
each roll of the dice is independent from the last roll
Quote: SOOPOOHe did not see 18 yo's in a row. Is there any forum member who actually believes he did?
I believe that Alan possibly believes that he saw 18 yos in a row.
He didn't actually happen, but that won't stop him stubbornly asserting that he did.
He has invested too much of himself to that absurd belief and he will be damned if he'll ever back down. If he's any concept of the enormous improbability of his assertion, and of course if he had an ounce of humility, he would have thought long and hard about whether he might just need to question his own reliability as a witness. But probability and maths are not his strong suit ( by his own admission). IMHO humility isn't his strong suit either. (not to mention engineering, ballistics, English comprehension or logical thought )
Alan makes a fool of himself by not acknowleging that he has spouted a completely incredible nonsense. For anyone who is daft enough inclined to frequent Alan's own forum, he tacitly admits that his motivation for spouting such nonesense here was as much about winding up us 'mathletes' as anything else.
I won't miss his contribution here.
Quote: WizardWe've never set a firm policy on this, but Alan asked that we delete his account, which we can't do, but I interpret that as a wish to give up his right to return and insult protection. So, he can be assumed to be a non-member. However, let's still be gentlemen about it. Alan may not be a probability wiz and his memory may not be perfect but he seemed like a very decent nice guy to me.
I guess we all have different opinions. I wouldn't consider someone who posted here strictly to cause a rouse as a decent nor nice person, re: 2-dice-puzzle but particularly 18-yos-in-a-row. It's not that he's bad at probability or math, it's that he chooses to defy (or rather, refuse to accept) math and probability, attacking the "mathletes". Stubborn, I suppose, is the best word to describe him.
Didn't somebody once suggest stubtuse?Quote: RSI Stubborn, I suppose, is the best word to describe him.
$:o)
It's nonetheless possible and indeed highly credible that Alan could confidently assert that he did indeed see a 13 rolled not once, but twice consecutively. He could, and possibly would assert that it was so, just as an act of defiance.Quote: aceofspadesIf Alan stated a 13 was rolled then yes "it didn't happen"
Quelle surprise.Quote: WizardUpdate: I heard from Alan outside of the forum and he wishes to remain self-banned, but with the right to return. So, that means that he still has insult protection.
Can't you suspend him anyway till he settles the wager that he had with you, which he conceded :)
I know. None of us has any right to be here except those rights granted and dispensed by the proprietors.
Quote: WizardUpdate: I heard from Alan outside of the forum and he wishes to remain self-banned, but with the right to return. So, that means that he still has insult protection.
Shouldn't he only have insult protection IF he is a current (non-banned) member? Seems like he wants his cake and to eat it too.
Pah!
Quote: aceofspadesI stand with Alan
By that I assume you mean you like the guy, value his contributions, and believe that he THINKS he saw it.
You've got his back.
I've tap-danced and shadow boxed with him for many years, and I know how he operates on these boards.
This isn't the first time he's been hooted and jeered, and he always seems to revel in it.
It's like he posts outlandish claims because he's bored and wants to stir things up.
When absurd claims are made, ridicule ensues: always has, always will.
I edited that for you.Quote: SOOPOOHe did not see 18 yo's in a row. Is there any *SANE forum member who actually believes he did?
P.S. since my other post got deleted a co worker really did roll 21 rolls in a row at red rock. Made a killing too. Thats a no lie story im sure they would remember him. it was withen the last year
Edit: If there was such a roll and you didnt start betting 11 just for f@#Ks sake after the 3rd one you're not very smart.
Quote: AxelWolfQuote: SOOPOOHe did not see 18 yo's in a row. Is there any *SANE forum member who actually believes he did?
I edited that for you.
WOW - so, we can change others' quotes now?
And, as you know I have been supportive of Alan in this thread, including the post right above yours, are you either implying or stating that I am not a "SANE member of the forum" - seems to be a personal insult.
WIZARD — as a show of solidarity with Alan - please self-ban me until Alan comes back. Thank you.
Quote: aceofspadesWIZARD — as a show of solidarity with Alan - please self-ban me until Alan comes back. Thank you.
Are you sure? Self-suspensions must be at least 30 days.
Quote: WizardQuote: aceofspadesWIZARD — as a show of solidarity with Alan - please self-ban me until Alan comes back. Thank you.
Are you sure? Self-suspensions must be at least 30 days.
Yes - I am standing up with Alan against everyone who refuses to believe anything certain members of this forum say. All it is doing is stressing me out. Thank you Mike.
Me. And I like Alans forum. He successfully called Singers bluff and you gotta give him his creds for that!Quote: OnceDearDidn't somebody once suggest stubtuse?
$:o)
Quote: aceofspadesYes - I am standing up with Alan against everyone who refuses to believe anything certain members of this forum say. All it is doing is stressing me out. Thank you Mike.
You're welcome. Still waiting for the final word.
Quote: WizardYou're welcome. Still waiting for the final word.
Oh I thought I gave the final word - yes I want to make this show of solidarity with Alan
Can you auto-reinstate me once Alan rejoins?
thank you - see you all when Alan rejoins. Positive variance to all.
Trump: “Hey, I watched when the World Trade Center came tumbling down. And I watched in Jersey City, New Jersey, where thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down. Thousands of people were cheering.”
To many people, sufficiently large or small numbers cease to make sense because there is no cognitive basis for comparing the numbers to something experiential. All sufficiently large numbers become possible,because after some point they are just "large." But not all large numbers are made alike, and Alan's and aceofspades memories are false memories, just like Trump's.
I find myself blocking threads I would otherwise want to read because of innumerate bravado. It's a shame that a site like this has members who call scientifically minded rational people disparaging terms like "mathletes." There is no shame in such people leaving on their own terms.
I will attempt 'scientifically minded rational people', but there's got to be something that rolls off the tongue easier.
Cheers, 2F
Quote: aceofspadesOh I thought I gave the final word - yes I want to make this show of solidarity with Alan
Can you auto-reinstate me once Alan rejoins?
thank you - see you all when Alan rejoins. Positive variance to all.
Done. Anybody else?
1/11?
1/6?
Every kid dreams of becoming a professional mathlete when they grow up right?
How is that a PI? You could've just answered YES. It's up to the readers to make that determination.Quote: aceofspadesWOW - so, we can change others' quotes now?
And, as you know I have been supportive of Alan in this thread, including the post right above yours, are you either implying or stating that I am not a "SANE member of the forum" - seems to be a personal insult.
WIZARD — as a show of solidarity with Alan - please self-ban me until Alan comes back. Thank you.
I didn't say anyone who believes Alan actually seen some mysterious person, some mysterious retired dealer, some mysteriously deleted video roll a gabillion to 1 shot (oops the video containing rarest event in the history of gambling got deleted) to be true is not sane.
I said, DOES anyone sane believe him. Again the simple for a believer is YES.
Quote: teliotI find myself blocking threads I would otherwise want to read because of innumerate bravado. It's a shame that a site like this has members who call scientifically minded rational people disparaging terms like "mathletes." There is no shame in such people leaving on their own terms.
I am sorry that you take offense to the term "mathletes"--I know it is used both as a positive and negative term at different points, but I use it (always or almost always) as a compliment to a group of people who can do something that I cannot. You ladies and gents are at the top of the heap, just as people we consider athletes are at the top of the heap in sports.
I don't know if Alan was telling the truth or not and I really shouldn't care, but it seems interesting to me that a group of talented people can on one hand prove beyond a doubt that something is possible and then tell everyone it isn't.
No they didn't say it wasn't possible, they say it didn't happen and there's a mich much bigger chance Alan was day dreaming or was visited by aliens who implanted false memories. There's probably a better chance you are dreaming this entire thread up and it never even took place.Quote: RonC
I don't know if Alan was telling the truth or not and I really shouldn't care, but it seems interesting to me that a group of talented people can on one hand prove beyond a doubt that something is possible and then tell everyone it isn't.
Quote: RonCI am sorry that you take offense to the term "mathletes"--I know it is used both as a positive and negative term at different points, but I use it (always or almost always) as a compliment to a group of people who can do something that I cannot. You ladies and gents are at the top of the heap, just as people we consider athletes are at the top of the heap in sports.
I don't know if Alan was telling the truth or not and I really shouldn't care, but it seems interesting to me that a group of talented people can on one hand prove beyond a doubt that something is possible and then tell everyone it isn't.
Is it possible to take a fair coin and flip it 75 times in a row, landing on heads every time? Possible -- yes. Is anyone going to believe you? Not sure....well, maybe Alan will.
Quote: RSIs it possible to take a fair coin and flip it 75 times in a row, landing on heads every time? Possible -- yes. Is anyone going to believe you? Not sure....well, maybe Alan will.
The odds of flipping a coin 75 times in a row landing on heads each time is fairly close to the odds of rolling 18 consecutive yos.
Neither the dice nor the coin have any idea what they did the last time they were flipped or rolled.
Yes, chances are that something other than 18 yo's in a row happened but you can say that without some of the venom that is prevalent here. There seems to be much more leeway to be insulting of more than just the writing when it comes to a math issue.
Anyway, who gives a damn really? I've had a lot of bad things happen too often in a row when gambling to think that there isn't at least a chance of something good (well, possibly good if no one bet into it) happening somewhere else based on probabilities.
See, Alan and Ace...hope to see you back here sometime.
If I knew I did or seen something, I seriously don't care who believes me or not. I would approach the situation with that attitude. So if someone said they didn't believe me, I would say tough SHT it's absolutely true.
Quote: RonCNeither the dice nor the coin have any idea what they did the last time they were flipped or rolled.
What's this have to do with it?
Quote: WizardofnothingRon- not sure you get it It doesn't matter whether they remember what happened last/ if I said to you I picked the winning daily number every single day for 25 years running would you say it's possible I did or would you have a much easier time saying the balls were rigged or someone cheated or I lied about it/ that is what people are saying for the most part
Oh I get it much more that you think...just because I don't do the math the way some do, I do understand the results and trust the verification process for math here; anyone putting up a "wrong" math answer is quickly brought into line.
I just find the level of nastiness much higher when the math folks seem to think something is "impossible" even though, well, their own math proves it possible. Highly improbable, yes, but not impossible. The little insults get tossed in and questions about sanity come up.
I know that casinos would need to have millions of tables working millions of hours over millions of years for 18 yo's to happen...but that in no way predicts at what exact point in that sequence of hours/days/years that the event will happen. If we knew when it was going to happen, and given the math provided it will, we'd want to be at that table and bet the streak.
Quote: RSWhat's this have to do with it?
Each roll is an independent event...or at least that is what I have heard said around here. The 18th roll does not remember that it is not supposed to be a yo since the last 17 have been yo's.
I am not saying it happened. I am quite sure that it didn't happen exactly as remembered and I understand how that works--we remember more of what we want to remember (good or bad) than of every single thing that happens. It could have been a large group of yo's with some other numbers mixed in, for example. I am only extending the discussion because it bothers me that we chase away decent members by calling them names and questioning sanity in threads like this instead of just talking about how long the odds are.
Quote: WizardofnothingRight that's exactly what I am saying- people of course are going to question other things that may be more likely to happen/ and more then likely one of the other scenarios happened rather then the 18hos
...and that is fine. It is when we add insults and question sanity that it becomes an issue.
Quote: RonCEach roll is an independent event...or at least that is what I have heard said around here. The 18th roll does not remember that it is not supposed to be a yo since the last 17 have been yo's.
And no one is saying that after 17 consecutive yos, the odds of the 18th roll being a yo is 1 in 3.9e22. It's still 1 in 18 (for that specific roll, #18).
What we're saying is the combination of ALL 18 rolls being a yo is 1 in 3.9e22.
Quote: aceofspadesOh I thought I gave the final word - yes I want to make this show of solidarity with Alan
Can you auto-reinstate me once Alan rejoins?
thank you - see you all when Alan rejoins. Positive variance to all.
All I can say is LOL. How does someone become a lawyer when this small non issue stuff bothers them.
ie: 1 in 18^17
Quote: RSIs it possible to take a fair coin and flip it 75 times in a row, landing on heads every time? Possible -- yes. Is anyone going to believe you? Not sure....well, maybe Alan will.
The odds of flipping a coin 75 times in a row landing on heads each time is fairly close to the odds of rolling 18 consecutive yos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbInZ5oJ0bc
Oh this is the best comparable statistic you've ever come up with Mike!Quote: WizardI calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.
