18 yo's in a row (split-off)

What color were your socks that day?

I removed the 18 yos in a row poll as some of the choices were insulting.

Its okay to make truthful statements about the long odds against this feat, but let's not jump to any insulting conclusions.

"Yos" appears in various dictionaries as a derogatory word. "Yo's" can also be derogatory but is not as obvious.
We don't use an apostrophe for the plural of a bet on crap which is craps. But I agree the apostrophe helps comprehension and avoids the directly derogatory word of "Yos."

Quote: DanMahoney

Alan is a man of high integrity and I enjoy his VP web site. I have started to have a bigger advantage over VP after following the advice of one of his top contributors, Rob Singer.

ROFLMAO

Quote: Wizard

I calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.

Isn't that 'If you were able to monitor all those tables for all time'

Would still love to know whether it's more probably to lose 30 hands of roll 18yos

Quote: AlanMendelson

Absolutely. James has retired and I don't recall who the other dealers were or the floorman but they wouldn't be there anymore either.

How very convenient.

Quote: AxelWolf

How very convenient.

What can I say? I've been in the TV business now for about 42 years. My policy has always been to keep my customers satisfied. I have a money-back guarantee on all the work I do.

Remind me how much money you paid me, and I will immediately send you a refund check. This goes for everyone else on this forum who doesn't believe me. I will give you a total refund. When I am out there reporting on what I see I always do my best work. If there are any doubts, you get your money back.

edited- so Alan doesn't leave I really love him here

No wager is needed.

I'm leaving this forum.

Wizard, please remove my account.

I don't need the insults.

Adios.

Please stay I really enjoy your posts

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Would still love to know whether it's more probably to lose 30 hands of roll 18yos

Do you skip over pushes in blackjack, or do they break a streak of wins?

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Please stay I really enjoy your posts

Now what have you gone and done? ;-)
Youuuuu might......;-)

I believe ace per one members recount it was straight loses

Quote: AlanMendelson

No wager is needed.

I'm leaving this forum.

Wizard, please remove my account.

I don't need the insults.

Adios.

Gets my vote.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm leaving this forum. Wizard, please remove my account. I don't need the insults.

Alan, you knew going in that your claim of seeing eighteen elevens rolled in a row would be met on this board (of all the gambling boards!) with absolute disbelief by many.

You've long been somewhat of a "lightning rod" in that some of your posts have been a bit "over the top."

I assumed you enjoyed being provocative, that you enjoyed the attention your posts engendered, that you enjoyed playing "the gambling board game" and were thick-skinned and secure in your beliefs.

To see you say you will now leave due to you taking umbrage at comments which you presumably expected and arguably encouraged is a bit baffling.

Good luck.

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Would still love to know whether it's more probably to lose 30 hands of roll 18yos

By my estimation, it's more likely to lose 73 Consecutive hands of BJ in a row (with NO pushes!!!) than to roll 18 consecutive Yo's

or 21249555777717.5 times more likely to lose 30 Hands consecutively with no pushes.

(0.491)^73 > (1/18)^18

Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong

If it isn't at least possible that it happened, why do the math?

Quote: RonC

If it isn't at least possible that it happened, why do the math?

No-one said it's impossible.
What was said or at least massively implied is that it was incredibly, massively, unbelievably unlikely, and far more unlikely than Alan spouting a false memory for any reason such as maybe promoting his forum, hallucination, intoxication, dementia, posturing, self-agrandisement, trolling, you name it. ( Any one of those things far more likely - you choose.)

Quote: AlanMendelson

Wizard, please remove my account.

Will do as requested. Although your opinions on anything to do with dice were often controversial, to put it mildly, you always acted like a gentleman here, in what must have been for you a hostile environment.

Feel free to say hello at DT anytime. I'm still hoping to resolve our lunch wager sometime.

Quote: OnceDear

No-one said it's impossible.
What was said or at least massively implied is that it was incredibly, massively, unbelievably unlikely, and far more unlikely than Alan spouting a false memory for any reason such as maybe promoting his forum, hallucination, intoxication, dementia, posturing, self-agrandisement, trolling, you name it. ( Any one of those things far more likely - you choose.)

So, basically, instead of just saying "I don't believe you", we have again chased away a decent member.

Good on us!!

I seem to be late to the party...

This is by far the most entertaining thread EVER on this forum. I LOLed several times reading it. Kinda took a turn at the end though.

I compiled the math highlights for easy reference in one place. You just gotta love math.

Quote: Wizard

To put this in comparison:

Probability of 18 Yo's in a row 1 in 18^18 = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Probability of a monkey solving a Rubik's cube in a single attempt =FACT(8)*3^7*FACT(12)*0.5*2^11 = 1 in 43,252,003,274,489,900,000.

So it is 910 times more likely that monkey would solve the Rubik's Cube than a shooter throwing 18 yo's in a row.


18 yo's in a row = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
Powerball = 1 in 292,201,338
Powerball 2 out of 2 = 1 in 85,381,621,928,990,200

So, it is 460,829 times more likely to buy two Powerball tickets, and win both of them, than to go throw 18 yo's in a row.


I calculate that if there were 1,000 craps tables going 24/7 for the entire lifespan of the sun (4.6 billion years), there would still be only a 1 in 544 chance of ever seeing 18 yos in the row.

WTF, can't someone just leave and not come back? Why do people need the HEY LOOK AT ME I AM LEAVING? I am guessing it is the same reason one would make a claim like this. If you don't like it here then just leave. No reason to ask to have an account removed.

I like the logic someone hashed out once - geez, I owe that person the dap, but I forget who.

It's not that it's impossible. It's about competing possibilities that don't indicate the person is a liar.

*there are good chances that memory failed - since Alan is adamant, let's only put it at say 1 in 10^6 - one in a million

*if I am doing it right, the chances of 18 yos in a row happening produce chances at approx 1 in 10^22

so the chances that Alan is simply mistaken, not lying, is overwhelmingly more likely by many, many, [can hardly be overstated] many orders of magnitude.

Yes it could have happened. A reasonable person concludes there is probably another explanation for this story.

(Edited)

It is about equally likely for a person to win the grand prize in back-to-back PowerBall lotteries AND get struck by lightning as get 18 11's in a row.

By contrast, a high percentage of our memories are fake,

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/11/how-many-of-your-memories-are-fake/281558/

Occam's razor comes to mind.

Wait how can that be possible- are you speaking of any prize in powerball?

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Wait how can that be possible- are you speaking of any prize in powerball?

Oops. Time for more coffee. No, twice in a row. I meant "more likely" in the calculation above. I'm going to edit it.

First was Ahigh and now this.

For shame people. For shame.

Don't know about other casinos but in Vegas if you ask nicely they will let you take a photo of whatever is happening at the table minus taking a pic of the dealer and supervisor. Slap it on here and you got proof.

Quote: teliot

Oops. Time for more coffee. No, twice in a row. I meant "more likely" in the calculation above. I'm going to edit it.

That is impressive that you edited it in 1970.

Quote: GWAE

That is impressive that you edited it in 1970.

That's the beginning of the "Epoch" -- computer time does not exist before that date.

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Would still love to know whether it's more probably to lose 30 hands of roll 18yos

Or whether Rob Singer strategies actually work.

I'd bet on the 18 elevens first.

That's funny

I think the poll about the 18 yos in a row, that I busted, was taking things too far. I should have busted it on first sight, and for not doing so, I apologize to Alan.

The person that created it should be tarred and feathered - just kidding - maybe should have just had a couple options removed -

I cannot resist, the devil made me do it perhaps....
The math.
The math is telling, is it not?
I ask YOU cause I don't have a clue, but think maybe you do.....

18 yo's in a row? Possible? Theoretically 'maybe'.

Somewhere in this thread, or the other poll thread that is no more, AoS chimed in and said something along the lines of "good luck, they nailed me to the cross" for a less serious infraction of the probability of the possibilities. AoS also posted a link to another earlier thread, said link just came in at the middle, around pg 29 of a 58 page thread. Silly me, I hit the link, read the remaining 30 or so pages of that thread.. Must have been a slow day...;-)

I read some things there that seemed to make sense, some notes on Reaaaaaaaaally long odds. Notes posted by well intentioned, obviously math savvy types that could think theses things thru way beyond what I could ever hope to do.

But I saw some statements that bothered me.
Liberal paraphrasing here but one was something like:
You lost 15 hands in a row, odds are 'such and such'
Then you lost another 15 hands in row, odds are such and such.
Then the dealer got a 9 card 21, odds are such and such.
Then you lost 30 hands in a row, odds are such and such....
If the take the odds of the first event, combine them with the odds of the second event, combine them with the odds of the third event......etc... Then the odds become astronomically improbable.....

Is that the correct way to calculate the odds? Serious question, and I am rarely serious....

Put another way, simple example.
You lose 16 hands in a row in BJ. I don't care if you count pushes ( why would you?) or don't count pushes, as long as you use the same mathematical logic either way.
Are the odds of having 2 'streaks' of 15 losing hands, back to back, which you just did, even if they overlap, the same as the odds of the one 16 streak of losing hands??

Put another way, not so simple..
Let's say you play 500 hands a day in a practice game, you do it for 90 days, just heads up vs the dealer, use whatever set of rules you like. You play 45,000 hands.
Some weird jhit happens during that 45,000 hands.
Like you win 25 of 26 hands dealt in a row, win 12, lose 1, then win 13 (ignore the pushes, why not ignore pushes).
And you lose 20 hands in a row at one point in there.
And you had 3 instances where you bet the table max ($1k) in your regular progression that turned into $5K bets? Once deuces vs dealer 3, that you split 4 ways and doubled once, and was a push overall. AND twice that were 9's vs dealer 8, one split 3 ways with two doubles, one split 4 ways with one double, and you won both of those $5K wagers?

We're all those events related, and probabilities cumulative, since they all happen in the same 45,000 hands?
Or are they unrelated and they probabilities are not cumulative?

What if you add in some genetic mutant butterfly in Africa that beat it's wings? Did so during that 45,000 hands?

Long post I know.
But if it's possible, doesn't it have to happen?
Does it have to happen twice?

Cheers
2F

When the Big Bang occurred, what would the odds have been on humans coming into existence?

Quote: darkoz

So, after the 17th yo, the dice would recognize the previous events and not land that way? You are saying 18 throws of a yo can't happen in a row because the dice have memory and are not really independent events?

I read this the same way, that somehow dice have memory - isn't each roll independent, such as the spin of a roulette wheel?

After an event, or series of events occurs we can say "the odds of that happening were astronomical". But you didn't ask me what the odds of it happening were before the events began. No would would have even speculated - "think I can throw 18 yo's in a row?". I fantasize about rolling two 12's in a row and having parlayed my dollar into 900.

No one would ever place a wager that 18 yo's in a row will occur, but after it happens they would say "Dang, wish I had bet that!"

Oddly, the odds of one yo is 1 in "18"

Or is it 1 in 6?? :-)

Quote: Wizardofnothing

The person that created it should be tarred and feathered - just kidding - maybe should have just had a couple options removed -

Poll choices can't be edited once posted. It either stays up or comes down.

BTW, even though you're kidding, stones and glass houses and all that.

I'm a big boy and accept full responsibility.

I regret the post led to Alan leaving the group: I hope that, in time, he reconsiders.

For those who need a daily "fix." Alan has an active message board of his own: alanbestbuys

Quote: RonC

When the Big Bang occurred, what would the odds have been on humans coming into existence?

Some say there was no "big bang", at least in how most people imagine it.

I was only kidding mr v. No harm intended


Long live kennnntryyyy!!!!!

Quote: MrV

I'm a big boy and accept full responsibility.

I regret the post led to Alan leaving the group: I hope that, in time, he reconsiders.

For those who need a daily "fix." Alan has an active message board of his own: alanbestbuys

I stand with Alan

Quote: RonC

When the Big Bang occurred, what would the odds have been on humans coming into existence?

The Big Bang is but a theory. I am pretty sure I am (Popeye quote?), and I suspect you are real too. I have a real hard time with all the 'odds' questions. I am pretty sure I'm odd (Popeye quote?), if it were just you and me, then you must be even, but that's just a guess ;-)

Quote: RonC

When the Big Bang occurred, what would the odds have been on humans coming into existence?

100% by the "anthropic principle."

Quote: teliot

100% by the "anthropic principle."

I studied that Wikipedia entry but that does not answer my question about the odds that human beings would come into existence.

Quote: RonC

Quote: teliot

100% by the "anthropic principle."

I studied that Wikipedia entry but that does not answer my question about the odds that human beings would come into existence.

You might be considering incalculable odds, maybe it never happened? Maybe it did and the odds can't be figured.... I'm leaning toward it never happened, but you should usually bet against me.;-)

He did not see 18 yo's in a row. Is there any forum member who actually believes he did?

Yes I believe him. I am Spartacus.