Possible Hedge Methods?
January 6th, 2016 at 8:01:36 PM
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Okay, I'm pretty new to craps, and I've only played 15 times so far, each time $200 starting bank roll... I'm currently negative $110 total... which isn't too bad.
I normally only play Don't Pass, and maybe a few Don't Comes depending on how the dice are rolling and who's shooting.
Occasional place bets on point to hedge my DP, (or other box numbers) if it seems to be hitting more than average.
(I rarely place odds or lay bets... I know... lowest HE, but I don't like putting so much at risk...)
My worst shooters are those that throw constant 7/11 at come out (usually the same shooter), and point hitting (2-4) before 7 out.
After about 1-round around the table, I get a pretty good feel of how the dice roll and which throwers are bound to be long shooters.
Sometimes the dice seem to hit 7 often before 1-2 points... other times seems edge number heavy (great field #s)... other times only inside numbers, rarely outsides.
Of course on days when the 7 rolls a lot, I'm happy being a Don't player.
However, in the other 2 cases, or even a truly random (both inside/outside numbers) and very long rolls, I'm having a hard time trying to find a good strategy.
I've tried simulating the following ($10 table):
1) place 6/8 only, no pass/dp bets ... (risk of quick 7-outs + outside heavy rolls)
2) place 6/8 with DP hedging ... (risk of quick 7-outs + outside heavy rolls + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
3) same as #1 #2 buying 4/10 ... (risk of quick 7-outs + inside heavy rolls + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
4) Iron Cross ... (risk of quick 7-outs)
5) Iron Cross with DP hedging ... (risk of quick 7-outs + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
6) #2 + Field Bet (6/8 = pos $4 and 5 = neg $10) ... (risk of quick 7-outs + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
X) Point Place Bet only... then DP only after 2nd/3rd roll... if current pattern seems 7-out after 2nd/3rd points before dice changed
Trying to do Math only analysis... and attempt to take into consideration rice roll patterns... but having a hard trying to figure which method has least risk and low HE.
What do you guys think of these methods?
Also, (curious) do you guys change your betting strategies based on how the table condition is... or do you stick with only one method?
I normally only play Don't Pass, and maybe a few Don't Comes depending on how the dice are rolling and who's shooting.
Occasional place bets on point to hedge my DP, (or other box numbers) if it seems to be hitting more than average.
(I rarely place odds or lay bets... I know... lowest HE, but I don't like putting so much at risk...)
My worst shooters are those that throw constant 7/11 at come out (usually the same shooter), and point hitting (2-4) before 7 out.
After about 1-round around the table, I get a pretty good feel of how the dice roll and which throwers are bound to be long shooters.
Sometimes the dice seem to hit 7 often before 1-2 points... other times seems edge number heavy (great field #s)... other times only inside numbers, rarely outsides.
Of course on days when the 7 rolls a lot, I'm happy being a Don't player.
However, in the other 2 cases, or even a truly random (both inside/outside numbers) and very long rolls, I'm having a hard time trying to find a good strategy.
I've tried simulating the following ($10 table):
1) place 6/8 only, no pass/dp bets ... (risk of quick 7-outs + outside heavy rolls)
2) place 6/8 with DP hedging ... (risk of quick 7-outs + outside heavy rolls + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
3) same as #1 #2 buying 4/10 ... (risk of quick 7-outs + inside heavy rolls + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
4) Iron Cross ... (risk of quick 7-outs)
5) Iron Cross with DP hedging ... (risk of quick 7-outs + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
6) #2 + Field Bet (6/8 = pos $4 and 5 = neg $10) ... (risk of quick 7-outs + point rolls + come out 7/11 rolls)
X) Point Place Bet only... then DP only after 2nd/3rd roll... if current pattern seems 7-out after 2nd/3rd points before dice changed
Trying to do Math only analysis... and attempt to take into consideration rice roll patterns... but having a hard trying to figure which method has least risk and low HE.
What do you guys think of these methods?
Also, (curious) do you guys change your betting strategies based on how the table condition is... or do you stick with only one method?
Last edited by: Dredogol on Jan 7, 2016
